Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AverageGlabella]

WoooooW its been a long time

But finally seeing my fam once again

Me+LFC @Paris
Love it

Go go Liverpool

Hearing about the fans and tear gas outside the stadium if you have tickets hopefully you made it to your seats and are not affected

[1714862589]

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[1714862589]

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[1714862589]

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[dragonvslinux]

I recognize that a lot of people proclaim that with bitcoin, you can set it and forget it - but I believe that setting and forgetting is way easier in the case that you either invest a relatively small amount from the start.. 1% to 5% of your total investment portfolio might be able to qualify as a "relatively small amount.."  or maybe if you set a relatively small amount of a DCA amount, then you may well be able to detach yourself, somewhat, emotionally from the fact that the investment could go to zero.

All the signs seems to be that you way over-invested.. and you did it in a kind of lump sum investment kind of a way.. .. so once you do that. and you recognize that you overinvested, it can be really difficult to suggest what to do... one thing is the shave off some of the value at various pointes as the price is going UP.. .. and sure of course, frequently you might well be able to overcome your feelings that you invested too much when the prices are up.. because at that point you are relieved that you did the right thing.

Another way could be to do some variation of what you indicated that you were planning on doing which is to just continue to invest small amounts on a regular basis and to continue to invest a certain amount of time ongoingly learning about your investment in order to maybe consider if your views are changed from your learning or maybe it could cause you to tweak your strategy which might even mean getting out if there is some kind of problem with what you had previously believed about bitcoin.   To the contrary, it seems to me that an overwhelming majority of people become way the fuck more bullish (and confident) about bitcoin if they actually spend more time  actually learning about bitcoin.. and I am not talking about learning about the distracting and frequently misleading shitcoin bullshit and presuming that you are indirectly learning about bitcoin, blah blah blah.

Surely, a few members who had responded to you had already stated that the buck stops with you.. and you are the one who has to ultimately be comfortable with what you had done and also whether there might be any tweaks to your strategy that you might need to make...   we could be telling you all kinds of wrong facts and giving you bad logic.. .. and in the end.. the buck stops with you and you are the one who is completely responsible for if you fucked up.. or failed/refused to invest in a way that sufficiently and adequately accounts for your own psychological and financial particulars... that includes considering your cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, time, skills and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

-snip-

Even for me, in late 2014 and even parts of 2015, BTC prices had reached close to 90% drops, it seems that some of my ongoing buying had ONLY gotten the value of my BTC to the maximum of 64% depreciated (meaning valued at 36% of the amount that I had put in).  I was somewhat bothered, and I continued to DCA.. but in essence I had invested most of my extra cash already, so my cashflow and injection amounts were not going to be as much during that time period (I was also having some other somewhat non-related cashflow issues too, at that time).

Of course there are a variety of personality (and circumstantial differences) between people, yet I have always found a decent amount of value in regularly monitoring various aspects of what I am doing and if there might be some things that I am going to be able to do.. (which also might include monthly reports but also even looking on shorter timelines, too.. and sure many times with bitcoin there will be value in zooming out, but if my investment timeline is not very long, my own investment data is not long enough to actually see very much of value - except maybe just ongoing downity)  but of course, if there might be periods in which I might not have more money to inject or anything that I feel that I can do until either my cashflow improves or maybe until the BTC price recovers a bit, then like you suggest,  I may well be in a better position to just focus on other things in life for a while until my situation might have changed or the price of BTC might have changed that would allow me to actually be able to do something other than what I might have already had set in place (if that might be a regular DCA amount or something like that).  

I am glad to hear that other experienced people have gone through the same thing your drop was worse I think that proves how stupid I am.

This doesn't prove how stupid you are, maybe more so how naive you are about how Bitcoiners end up in the position they are in. In summary; no-one really buys the bottom, in the sense of going all in at this price. A tiny % obviously do, I imagine predominantly traders usually catching some 10-20% bounce in order to take profits. At best, you buy low. "Low" being subjective to the price movement after your purchase.

For simple example, $6-8K to me now sounds like a "low price" to have bought Bitcoin, as well as a good average at the time, or at least most people would now agree, even despite the recent drop. During that period, price dropped 50% twice afterwards, so it obviously didn't feel like a low price all the time. When price was $10K+, for sure it felt cheap. When it was between $3-4K, not so cheap.

Nearly everyone here has been at a paper loss at some point, usually at the beginning of their investment, whether that be 50% or 90+%, but for whatever reason they hodled. That's the point here. In the world Bitcoin, no-one really deserves a 500% increase without experiencing a 50% drop. If you can't handle -50%, you wouldn't be able to handle 500% either.

I'm not trying to worry it's just the natural reaction I have I know bitcoin will recover, I know there's to much potential to waste but its that voice in my head telling me you did wrong and then seeing the news and the price just cements that in my head.

If you're confident Bitcoin will recover, and continue growing, then you answered your own doubts: there isn't anything to worry about. The voice in your head is your emotions. Fortunately by the sound of it you haven't capitulated to these emotions, while notably many other short-term holders (6-12 months), have listened to their inner anxiety and effectively panic sold. Probably near the lows if I had to guess.

I was very confident when I bought this BTC it was definitely the most confident I have been in my life. I think this topic will help me when I need to be told I am being stupid just look at the replies to my 1st post  many people tell me I'm stupid and they have faith to the end. I have invested a lot of my wealth but that is still a small number when you look at other people in this topic and they are not worried so why should I?

Maybe because you feel over-invested? Maybe it's because this is your first Bitcoin rodeo? Either way, it get's easier over the years.

Most people in this topic have been invested for numerous years. It's not that they are up X amount that they are not worried, it's that they've been through the 50-80% corrections before.

[savetherainforest]

Anyway fuck worrying lets watch some champions league and forget about everything for a moment.


@JayJuanGee I will listen to that podcast tonight thanks for giving it to me. I will let you know what I think tomorrow

NO!  !!!!  The Monkey Virus is real. It will f^ck humanity backwards, sideways and in every direction and position ever possible.    

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Hi, diplovers  

Just returned from the most expensive short vacation ever. No, it wasn't Japan. Just a quick four hour drive over the border to the sea.
On the way back, the motherfucking car broke down on the highway!!!  
First i thought a heavy chopper was flying in low altitude over us, which isn't uncommon near a NATO base, but then i missed the Doppler effect, so i slowed down, and the chopper noise did too   Fuck! I immediately stopped and then i could hear one of the cylinders blowing off air, and we could smell exhaust gas through the AC air outlets.
Got the car tied away, with us six passengers inside, because the driver of the tow truck said it's a pretty dangerous spot to be in as foreigners, so he took us to the next service area station. We called a cab to bring us to the border, where we were picked up by a friend, so we paid only half of what we would if the cabby would have taken us home.
I suggest a broken glow plug, which the car mechanic couldn't remove at the last repair, finally fell into the cylinder. That would make a nice four figures repair bill.
My only hope is that the damn thing was loosened and blown out by the compressed air (it's a diesel engine), or it broke into tiny pieces when hitting the piston, which were blown outside, finally before damaging the cylinder wall.

More info on monday, when the engine will be inspected.
Shit happens. Life goes on.

The good news:
I sitll didn't sell a satoshi.
Insurance extended my sickness benefit for another year.

[savetherainforest]

Hi, diplovers  

Just returned from the most expensive short vacation ever. No, it wasn't Japan. Just a quick four hour drive over the border to the sea.
On the way back, the motherfucking car broke down on the highway!!!  
First i thought a heavy chopper was flying in low altitude over us, which isn't uncommon near a NATO base, but then i missed the Doppler effect, so i slowed down, and the chopper noise did too   Fuck! I immediately stopped and then i could hear one of the cylinders blowing off air, and we could smell exhaust gas through the AC air outlets.
Got the car tied away, with us six passengers inside, because the driver of the tow truck said it's a pretty dangerous spot to be in as foreigners, so he took us to the next service area station. We called a cab to bring us to the border, where we were picked up by a friend, so we paid only half of what we would if the cabby would have taken us home.
I suggest a broken glow plug, which the car mechanic couldn't remove at the last repair, finally fell into the cylinder. That would make a nice four figures repair bill.
My only hope is that the damn thing was loosened and blown out by the compressed air (it's a diesel engine), or it broke into tiny pieces when hitting the piston, which were blown outside, finally before damaging the cylinder wall.

More info on monday, when the engine will be inspected.
Shit happens. Life goes on.

The good news:
I sitll didn't sell a satoshi.
Insurance extended my sickness benefit for another year.

In July price will pamp!   

You can sell then!  

[OutOfMemory]

Hi, diplovers  

Just returned from the most expensive short vacation ever. No, it wasn't Japan. Just a quick four hour drive over the border to the sea.
On the way back, the motherfucking car broke down on the highway!!!  
First i thought a heavy chopper was flying in low altitude over us, which isn't uncommon near a NATO base, but then i missed the Doppler effect, so i slowed down, and the chopper noise did too   Fuck! I immediately stopped and then i could hear one of the cylinders blowing off air, and we could smell exhaust gas through the AC air outlets.
Got the car tied away, with us six passengers inside, because the driver of the tow truck said it's a pretty dangerous spot to be in as foreigners, so he took us to the next service area station. We called a cab to bring us to the border, where we were picked up by a friend, so we paid only half of what we would if the cabby would have taken us home.
I suggest a broken glow plug, which the car mechanic couldn't remove at the last repair, finally fell into the cylinder. That would make a nice four figures repair bill.
My only hope is that the damn thing was loosened and blown out by the compressed air (it's a diesel engine), or it broke into tiny pieces when hitting the piston, which were blown outside, finally before damaging the cylinder wall.

More info on monday, when the engine will be inspected.
Shit happens. Life goes on.

The good news:
I sitll didn't sell a satoshi.
Insurance extended my sickness benefit for another year.

In July price will pamp!    

You can sell then!  

Yeah, i could.
But

1. i love this car. Seven seat minivan, still feeling like a racecar. good drivetrain and more than sufficient horsepower  
2. I don't want to ever sell. My kids should have the sats when they grew up.
3. No good car in sight on the market. New ones take forever to be delivered (thanks, supply chain issues), used ones are kept because new ones are taking forever to deliver...

EDIT: The small part of my coins i would sell would need a pump above $200k for me to let them go for filthy fiat 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

And good news again: EU repair warranty is 6 months (after that another 18 months, but i have to prove that it was the mechanic's fault).
The glow plug "repair" was a little more than five months ago. 

To be continued...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Bitcoin has to pop up about 1300 to 'escape' the 9th "historical" red weekly candle.
I would drink some red (green?) to it tonight.
There is no green wine, or is there?
Apparently, there is..called Vinho Verde (it is a Portuguese brand).
Maybe I should look for it around here to replace my usual red for tonight or tomorrow.

[serveria.com]

ps- shoot me in the face

Be careful what you wish for... there's Bawb lurking here.. somewhere... #nohomo 

[serveria.com]

WoooooW its been a long time

But finally seeing my fam once again

Me+LFC @Paris
Love it

Go go Liverpool

Wow wow wow gentlemen! Football, right? No plans to visit Roland Garros?

P.S. Where are the ladies? 

[serveria.com]

WoooooW its been a long time

But finally seeing my fam once again

Me+LFC @Paris
Love it

Go go Liverpool

Wow nice should we guess who’s who?

U must be new here... 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OgNasty]

The elevated long leverage mixed with the overhanging ETH locked in 2.0 and the mtgox coins are still keeping this market down.  The support at $28K is looking more and more exhausted as it continues to be tested.  I think there's a strong likelihood that the price will retest the recent lows in the $26K range.  Hopefully that will liquidate some of the long leverage and bring the market into a healthier position to begin building support for the next wave of BTC to crash down onto it.

[Gachapin]

The elevated long leverage mixed with the overhanging ETH locked in 2.0 and the mtgox coins are still keeping this market down.  The support at $28K is looking more and more exhausted as it continues to be tested.  I think there's a strong likelihood that the price will retest the recent lows in the $26K range.  Hopefully that will liquidate some of the long leverage and bring the market into a healthier position to begin building support for the next wave of BTC to crash down onto it.

I still don't get why people selling meth would bring the BTC price down, maybe apart from some BTC-bearwhales taking advantage of the situation.

If I were to sell meth, I know what I'd buy instead BTCBTCBTCBTC


And the Gox coins... sure some will be sold. But everyone knows we are probably not too far from the bottom. so why sell when price is near its lowest?


However, I must admit the market situation looks quite bad.
But then.. the worse it gets the more likely will be a reversal.

[Biodom]

The elevated long leverage mixed with the overhanging ETH locked in 2.0 and the mtgox coins are still keeping this market down.  The support at $28K is looking more and more exhausted as it continues to be tested.  I think there's a strong likelihood that the price will retest the recent lows in the $26K range.  Hopefully that will liquidate some of the long leverage and bring the market into a healthier position to begin building support for the next wave of BTC to crash down onto it.

There is no evidence so far that the support is exhausted, but, sure, it could go either way.
Specifically, I am not sure how eth "overhang" affects anything rn (it doesn't).
It could affect something in Aug-Oct, but not beforehand.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AnotherAlt]

WoooooW its been a long time

But finally seeing my fam once again

Me+LFC @Paris
Love it

Go go Liverpool

Better Luck next time dude 😔.
But, Liverpool played well. Hard luck. They won Heart ❤️. Trophy isn’t the main thing. Liverpool is beauty of Football.