That is what "they" would like you to believe.


You could be correct with the implication that the various spot ETFs are not really buying bitcoin as the numbers claim to show, but that would seem to be pretty risky in several regards in terms of some actual squeezes that could end up happening, actual laws, actual credibility with the public to go down such road, and perhaps other reasons too..

I have my doubts about whether those spot ETF coins are paper bitcoin for more than a week of float at most...... but sure maybe a week of float could be enough to manipulate or even trick actual holders to give up their coins.  Perhaps? perhaps?

In other words, I am thinking that those spot ETF twats have to actually buy the bitcoin that they claim to have, and they have to get them from somewhere and in the end, it most likely must be that holders are actually selling their coins.. and at the same time it seem that the selling of bitcoin can ONLY last for so long.. so I don't know.. there surely can be some questions about the ways that some kind of paper bitcoin manipulation could be taking place, how sustainable such manipulation could be and how long such downity manipulation could ongoingly be able to be taking place (which maybe just is another way of asking how sustainable it might be).


Elections seem to be a lame distraction  (as somac has also mentioned in his responding post), so I have my doubts regarding how much "elections" correlate with BTC price movements, even if elections might not be completely detached from BTC price movements, they probably are not as central as some folks might be emphasizing them as being.


Why so frequently do you come off as so confused Paashaas?  Like you are not even understanding how bitcoin works, you are overly anxious and just ongoingly preoccupied about if you might get some opportunities to buy bitcoin for lower prices, though surely you probably did end up selling too many BTC too soon.. was it in the upper $20ks? or perhaps in the lower $30ks.. or alternatively (and maybe more likely) was it that you failed/refused to actually buy bitcoin rather than ongoingly waiting for lower BTC prices that did not end up coming .. were you one of those waiting for $10k-ish in late 2022/early 2023?  sucks to be you, no?

For anyone confused, we have been in a bull market since November 2022 - even though we might not have known that we were in such bull market until either mid-2023 or maybe not until October 2023, but yeah, some folks do not even realize that we are and/or have been in a bull market for such time - and even get confused about corrections and/or consolidations that take place, even during a bull market - even though even in recent times (since the end of February) BTC daily trade-weighted prices have been in the top 100 days of bitcoin price performance.  

There were ONLY a few days since late February that BTC prices actually fell out of the top 100 of those daily weight-traded prices, so I am having troubles figuring out why some folks consider a failure to go up further as if we got knocked out of the bull market.  Failure (or delay) to go up surely is not enough of a justification to drop us out of our current bull market.

On the other hand, if we get within 20% of the 200-WMA and perhaps stay there for a while, there may be some need to re-think the matter of whether we might have had fallen out of our current bull market.


I am not sure if sustained below $59k would be enough to knock us out of our current bullmarket, but yeah sure, sustained below $59k surely would be more indicative of the possibility of getting knocked out of our current bullmarket, as compared with our currently mostly bouncing between $60k and $70k for the past 4-ish-months... .

If you really consider the matter, 4-ish months bouncing mostly in a range of $60k to $70k is hardly even anything to write home to mom about.  I am not even proclaiming that I want more.  We got ourselves around a 2.5x uppity from the doldrums we were in much of 2023.. and that is like a stair-step up that is likely not going to end up allowing those who missed it to get back in for the prices that they could have had through much of 2023.. and surely even the more fortunate ones were able to buy into bitcoin (or buy back into bitcoin) during a relatively short window of sub-$20k prices in mostly late 2022..

Yet there were a lot of scared folks during those times (mid-to-late 2022 and even into early to mid 2023).. which was reasonable given the various uncertainties about the extent to which negatively spiraling cascading events would continue to play out in those times.  I am not even proclaiming that I personally was in a position to benefit greatly from those mid-to-late 2022 times, and I largely held my own during those times and accumulated BTC in mostly whimpy DCA kinds of ways since I had largely run out of money by the time the BTC prices got down to the lower $20ks and more so when it got below $20k.. though I continued to buy with some hesitancies about not wanting to spend my whole wadd (of whatever I did have remaining).. so I had to mostly be judicial in my own purchasing of BTC during that time, even though in the whole scheme of things (even though maybe I could reasonably categorize myself as mostly a maintainer during those times), I did end up buying a few extra corn during those times too. .but they were not large amounts since I largely did not have large amounts of extra cash to buy more during those times.

If you are brand new to investing, it may well take you longer than 10 years to establish a solid bitcoin position, including both the amount that you put in and also how much bitcoin might have had appreciated in prices during the time that you had been investing.

For example, if you merely save 10% of your overall income, then it would take you 10 years to merely reach 1 years worth of your salary... so if your goal might be to reach 10 to 25 years of your annual salary, then it could take you a bit more time to reach those kinds of levels - unless if you are investing more aggressively or if bitcoin prices appreciate at some point after you had already been investing for a while..

I would not assume that DCA is going to solve all of your problems, especially if you are a fairly whimpy investor, yet there still is truth to the matter than normal people sometimes do not invest much if anything, so DCA can really be helpful for normal people to establish some kind of an investment level that they would not have otherwise had been able to achieve.. yet it still takes some effort of setting aside some money during that investment period whether that be 4-10 years or longer.. maybe even 20-30 or more years, even though many of us expect that normies who are investing regularly, consistently, persistently and even aggressively into bitcoin may well be able to reach higher levels of progress as compared with traditional investments that might not allow for the reaching of higher levels of progress (even though of course there are no guarantees regarding where bitcoin is going to go or if it will end up being better than traditional investments).

You believe that we should just "use whatever" within this thread?

How are we going to know the BTC price reference if the members are not saying their BTC price reference within the context of their post and they are just spouting out random BTC price references?

Sure we could have some proposals regarding what to use as our thread BTC price reference (or have more than one BTC price reference (like we had the three for a period in the past).. although there is something nice about having one..

And, in spite of a bit of whining from some members about the purchase of Bitstamp by Robinhood, I still don't see any actual way that Bitstamp is yet broken merely because they were bought.  The criticisms of Bitstamp regarding who bought them surely are not invalid concerns, especially since we know how various entities can be manipulative (which Robinhood has already shown some of its colors in the direction of fucking around with clients and showing favoritism. at least that is what it seems they did).

I recall a few years ago that some of us were concerned because Bitstamp had been sold from European ownership to some Korean ownership.. but then apparently the Korean owner died recently which might have been part of the motivation that Bitstamp had ended up recently getting acquired by Robinhood..

And, in any event, there likely is some desire from active members in this thread to have some kind of a representative exchange and/or price reference location that we use in these here parts... .. and again Bitstamp is not yet broken as a BTC price reference (no evidence of that, yet).... so I am having some difficulties understanding why we would just change it without some level of consensus or signs of some kind of a need for such change (such as Bitstamp being broken)... Change for the mere sake of change, without any actual evidence of an actual problem, just out of preemptive fears?  that seems a bit much doesn't it?

Edited: a bit, for clarity and flow

Yes., you are doing it on purpose because you are a twat.

We've been using bitstamp here since around 2014 (after the issues with Gox).. and then there was some dispute in 2015/2016 regarding which ones to use.. so then CB was using Stamp, Bitfinex and Coinbase, but when CB returned, he had only been using Stamp.. and sure CB is not the determiner of what we do, yet Richy_T was likely trying to go along with the sentiment here.. ... as  point of reference..

Sure, sometimes, there might be some needs to compare across exchanges or different ways that sort of subject might come up, yet there would be a reasonable inference that anyone who is referring to the price and not making a reference would be referring to bitstamp.. otherwise you are potentially being misleading.. and yeah, sure from time to time there have been guys who refer to prices on other exchanges and/or services, yet it seems that as a courtesy they will mention which one they are referring to, otherwise the default would be bitstamp... until we might come to agree that some other exchange (or aggregator) might be preferred or even cross-referenced.

It is not like you should not already know these kinds of things. . but whatever, you do you, and if you want to continue to be a twat, I suppose that is your choice.. maybe you will win over some converts  - even though I recall recently that several other members already tried to be polite to you in terms of letting you know that we use bitstamp here.. so the mere fact that Robinhood bought them does not necessarily justify that we should change our default reference in this thread (at least not yet).. or maybe at least not until seeing some evidence in regards to bitstamp no longer being representative of BTC price dynamics.

You know (or should know) that part of the reason to have a default reference in terms of a thread like this is so that everyone is kind of on the same page in terms of what is the thing that they are referencing.. so that we don't have to bounce all over and try to figure things out (so maybe several of us watch bitstamp so that we can be somewhat coordinated with the way BTC prices are being discussed in this thread), but it does not mean that members cannot use other price services or references for their own personal reasons.. or other BTC price dynamic matters that they might be looking at.. including that they might even be totally opposed to using Bitstamp as an actual place that they do business.

I do believe that the arbitrage differences between exchanges is way less than what it was in 2014 - 2017 - though of course, from time to time we will see some considerable differences and even great spikes on some exchanges that do not occur on other exchanges, and there can be all kinds of reasons - but still there can also be some comfort to have a starting reference point in order to make comparisons.. and surely at some point some guys might want to switch to some other exchange (and/or price reference point), but surely we are not there yet.. at least not in this thread and purely based on your own seeming to want to make an issue (or drama) about the topic.  Anything else you want to argue about? or are you just purposefully want to be contrarian and whine about something that should not even be an issue?

Yeah.. Uhwuchukwu53.. seems to be confused, and I suppose that there is a certain self-responsibility that each of us has to figure out how to submit correct pushup reports, and if there are errors in the report (yet the report is still properly formatted), then DirtyKeyboard might not notice the error, since his script will pick up the pushup report and reported as is.. so how will he know (or need to figure out) if the total number of pushups should be 150, 250, 750 or some other quantity of pushups.... so in that regard, if members want accurate numbers in the pushup table, then they are responsible for putting the correct numbers in their submitted pushup reports.


If you had not noticed, pushups and situps are not the same thing... and what is close enough to pushups or what could you count as pushups might well be a subject of debate - even though I would suggest that you should be doing something that is similar to pushups if you want to count them as pushups... and from my point of view situps are not very close to pushups.

Yet, at the same time, you can report whatever you like - even though I expect that the presumption is that if you submit a pushup report, you are stating that you did pushups, and if you did something else, then guys here may well not want your representations to be counted in the pushup's table, especially since members in the table are claiming to be doing some variation of pushups..


I was just thinking about this today, and maybe I think about it whenever I am going up and down stairs (especially down), because one misstep and any of us could be fucked in major and/or in minor ways..

Today, I was at a department store, and there were very wide stairs (maybe more than 8 feet wide, but there was a rail on only one side.. which was a bit weird. I had not even noticed while I was going up, yet when I was coming back down (after shopping for some stuff), I realized that there was ONLY a rail on one side, so I personally gravitated over to the side with the rail, even though it might not have had been a big deal to just go down the stairs without using the rail.. but I am kind of a creature of habit, even in my house I almost always make sure that i am close to being able to hold onto the rail, especially on the way down.

You are saying that you agree, but then at the same time you say a lot of things that contradict what I said and the way that I said it.

I understand that people like to think and speak in terms of absolutes, but it still remains problematic to think and talk in terms of absolutes when we are talking about anything that might happen in the future.

Yes, we can see trends and we can see likelihoods, and in the past we can see that bitcoin has been built on solid foundations while at the same time continuing to grow in its various network effects (as referred to by Trace Mayer). 

Historical growth, likely ongoing growth and strong foundations do not guarantee future growth, yet at the same time anyone who creates a budget in which they are allocating a portion of their discretionary income to buying bitcoin, may well want to also consider that bitcoin is an asymmetric bet to the upside, so sure there is a possibility that 100% of the value invested into bitcoin could be lost, but at the same time, there are a wide number of upside scenarios that involve multiples and even magnitudes in returns to the upside, including gold parity or even 1,000x higher than gold parity when bitcoin is currently right around 1/10th gold's market cap.. which means that bitcoin has a decently good potential of going up another 10,000x from here, even though it could take 50-200 years or more to reach such prices, and at the same time none of that is guaranteed..

So the upside and even the downside scenarios could all be simultaneously held in a BTC investor/accumulator/holder's head at the same time in terms of figuring out how to accumulate BTC and/or how to maintain his/her BTC stash once reaching a maintenance level that he might have had determined to be appropriate for his financial and psychological situation..

The high was $71,949.

There is no need to use some other exchange or price measurement on purpose since you already know that "we" (not even royal) use Bitstamp in these here parts.


I'll believe it when I see it.... meaning the part about going to prison.  Yes, he deserves such a thing, especially for abusing the justice system so much with forgeries and even knowingly false testimony.. yet one can wonder why such a thing has been going on for so long.. 8 years or so.. depending upon which forgeries, and depending on if it was done in front of a court of law or merely in the non-court of law context.

Sure it seems to save time to pressure oneself to do fewer pushups per day, so there is less pressure in that regard, yet I am thinking that it still seems to hurt just as much and there might be some losses when the number of sessions are less urgent and maybe even having flexibility to have fewer than 5 sessions per day, and maybe as few as 2 sessions per day, and/or the quantity of pushups per session might be reduced... but yeah I am still feeling it out, yet part of the actual activity changes for me has been attempting to feel less pressure by allowing myself to do fewer sessions and fewer pushups per session, but I can still end up feeling behind because other activities come about, and then for some sessions I will still feel that I will need to do more pushups for a  particular session rather than fewer pushups in a particular session..

Many of us likely realize that for any particular pushup session, it can be really painful to get started with doing the pushups, so there is a bit of a benefit to being warmed up before really going at it... do a set of pushups and then do another set a short time later, such as an hour later or maybe less might feel better than having 6 hours between push up sessions.

I know that there are guys that try to compress their pushup sessions rather than spreading them out during the day, so there can be some advantages in that, too.

Bitcoin's price performance is not guaranteed in the long run to go up  - even though many folks (including myself) invest into bitcoin based on presumptions that it is more likely than not to go up in the long run... so each of us needs to establish our position size in accordance with a variety of factors, including the factor that BTC's price is not guaranteed to go up.

Of course, I personally prefer that you use whatever date the member puts into their report rather than choosing from the post date, and yeah members need to remember to put two digits for day and the month and four digits for the year... That is just my preference., yet for me, I have my own table that I used to keep track of my own, so I am not going to get confused if my information is not enterred into the tables of this thread from my own point of view.


That sounds reasonable.

---

By the way, regarding my own reduction in pushups that has been happening for the last 6 days.  I will say that the reduction does not necessarily make the pushups easier to do.. at least that is becoming my general feeling..

100k,JayJuanGee,126,24795,2024-06-08

I doubt that El Salvador or anyone else buying bitcoin in the lower to mid 5-digits give too many shits about bitcoin merely getting to $100k. 

People talk about $100k as if it were some kind of a BIG number - and that is barely over 2x for El Salvador.. maybe 2.5x at most.. What is the BIG deal about 2.5x returns?

Yes, I am pretty sure that I have already mention this to you, Justinapeter.  Sure people do not need to invest into bitcoin for the long term, and so they can trade or try to play the wave - especially something less than a full cycle to try to get in and out and then get back in, yet that sounds like either a loser's game or a mode to gamble.. so it is not really investing when you play around like that.

Probably if you are new to bitcoin and/or new to investing, it would be better to just continue to invest through a whole cycle, and perhaps even longer, so 4-10 years or longer seems to be the base starting point for investing into bitcoin rather than fucking around with trying to time the cycle and/or to trade in a way that may or may not put you in a better place (which in the end sounds like gambling).  Sure guys can consider whatever tactic they want in terms how to treat their involvement in bitcoin, if they are going to play bitcoin in the short-term or if they might try to employ some kind of a longer tactic that involves building up a bitcoin stash and then considering whether that might give them more options down the road and the longer they are in it, and surely I have my doubts that guys are going to profit as much from being involved in bitcoin if they are treating it as something to get in and out of and largely valuing short term dollar games rather than really understanding the potential power of bitcoin's longer play since bitcoin is likely one of the best if not the best of assets (pristine asset) which relates to its sound money properties, its decentralized aspects and the ways that it has potentials for empowering individuals in financially sovereign ways..  Of course, it is not guaranteed, and of course, folks coming newly to bitcoin might only see it and recognize it in terms of shorter term dollar plays rather than figuring out ways to accumulate it without fucking around with trading, since for a variety of reasons, selling is not a good strategy for accumulting more bitcoin.

You do not have to reach your accumulation goal before starting to think about diversifying or even to enter into a process of actually creating more diversification in your investment portfolio (beyond mere bitcoin and cash), so surely the beginner investor need not be thinking too much about diversification for the mere sake of diversification.. yet the point at which such needs for diversification triggers is likely going to differ for each person, and there is likely not any exact correct way to do it, even though some ways will likely pay off better than others, but in the end, when a person is trying to balance risk, cashflow and other kinds of considerations regarding how he views bitcoin as compared with other investment possibilities that he has, and these can all have a lot of variance that goes way beyond the topic of this thread  - yet my main point is to object to those spouting out ideas of diversification that seems to have little to no thought except that they heard others say it and so it sounds like a good idea.. and also some of the lost puppies fucking around with shitcoins seem to wrongly come to conclusions that "diversification is a good thing."

I am not too excited about the idea of changing the name of a thread like this, especially after 452 pages of posts and more than 5 years of active posting in the thread - even though it seems that members participating in this thread are seemingly coming around to being more receptive to the idea of DCA over Buying the Dip and sure we compare lump sum investing (and front-loading in there too) and sometimes they write posts and seem to forget that buying the dip is one of three decent strategies

- even though I am likely going to argue until I am blue in the face that buying the dip is not a good starting strategy for a no coiner, but also may well not be a good strategy for a low coiner, unless the low coiner started out with something like lump sum and/or attempting to front-load his investment.. but merely front-loading might cause him to no longer be a low coiner, which becomes part of the justification towards giving more emphasis towards buying the dip as a quasi-beginner strategy.


I guess we are breaking up, then.

That is too bad.   

I was criticizing you for saying for sure there is going to be a correction.


Yes.  It is a cursing and a blessing to have folks take me (or any other longer term forum member) seriously, and so for sure there are always needs to attempt to do your own thinking, engage in critical thinking, even things coming from members who have been on the forum for long periods of time.  Surely members have their specialty areas and sometimes members (including yours truly) say too much or say things that we do not back  up very well or at all. .so hopefully you take the various representations with a decently large grain of salt, even if you might come around to believe some forum members more than others.


You are still talking about how much rather than whether to get started.


When is to get started right away.


Who gives any shits about their fears?  If they are afraid, then either they choose not to get started, which would be dumb, or they adjust their starting amount in order to account for their fears, whether that is $100 per week, $10 per week or some other amount that they consider to be reasonable for their own situation  and their own considerations, including their fears.

Remember fear is ONLY 1 of the items of the 9 individual factors that should be taking into account by newbies and also for experienced bitcoin investors.


Your waffling and/or potentially saying opposite things is not the same as whatever the bitcoin price might be.  You should be able to figure out ways to express yourself with a bit fewer internal contradictions and/or waffling, but hey whatever, you do you.


Sure, starting any new thing takes time (including bitcoin) so that is one of the reasons that any newbie no coiner should get the fuck started rather than sitting around like a bump on the log, since like i continue to repeat waiting is not a strategy to prepare for UP, especially for a no coiner or a low coiner..

Of course there are different ways that you can treat you overall investment portfolio, and probably until the last year or so, I had been hypothesizing that even if bitcoin might have a higher potential return rate as compared with other assets in your portfolio, you could well treat the withdrawal rate similarly - however, I think that a lot of our more indepth sustainable withdrawal discussion, including how the sustainable withdrawal tool really shows how very much higher withdrawal rates can be maintained with bitcoin as compared with other assets... so even when we developed the sustainable withdrawal tool, I had already hypothesized that 6-10% would be quite sustainable - and I suppose that I am becoming more and more convicted in regards to that, especially after you had gotten the historical tracking to be working.

I am considering that none of us necessarily purposefully diversify into other assets, but yeah surely there might be some point where it makes sense to diversify into other assets, since it might not be comfortable to ONLY have investments in bitcoin and cash..so yeah, I cannot really say how much property, stocks, commodities, bonds or other investments to have, especially since mine has largely just been to let my BTC ride, and not really doing much if any diversifying. so largely the Bitcoin portion has grown to dwarf my other investments.. even though they already exist and I am largely just considering that package other investments as having a withdrawal rate of around 4% and the bitcoin to have a 6% to 10% withdrawal rate, even though I personally still have not been withdrawing out of my bitcoin at anything close to that high of rates since my various other funds continue to support me, even though surely there are times that I try to spend more.. or to increase my spending budget in order that I can spend more bitcoin proceeds.

I have not updated my own disclosures of my percentage of allocations since mid-2022 - but you can see how my bitcoin versus other assets have evolved with my largely starting out in bitcoin with about 13.5% in late 2014 in bitcoin and most of the growth came from bitcoin appreciation rather than reallocating... so yeah maybe now my bitcoin is in the 80% to 90% territory.. and I see no real reason to purposefully sell my winner to diversify into losers (relatively speaking), and so I have difficulties answering regarding how much others might be justified to invest into various other assets.


I was trying to figure out what bitmover was talking about, and I misunderstood him, but yeah, I stick by my comment of some kind of a reasonable rate of withdrawal that someone might consider once he has gotten his BTC holding to a high enough amount... and so frequently I try to use 10% for every 100% increase in BTC price as a kind of potential guideline, so then we could also do 1% for every 10% rise or we could do 3% for every 30% rise and still stay within the parameters of that same formula... and yeah currently I am not withdrawing that high of a rate.. but I can understand if someone might want to use something like that rate as a ballpark guidance of potential reasonableness.


You are talking about trading and expecting to be able to buy back, so I am not talking about that.  Sure I have some locations that I mention that you could buy back if the BTC price drops, but I am not choosing my amounts to sell or even guiding to sell with the purpose of being able to buy back.  From my thinking, if you have purpose of buying back or some kind of a need to buy back, then you are doing something different from what I am suggesting.. since my suggested sales both relies on reaching a status of overaccumulation and also has no expectation of being able to buy back cheaper..


Sure nothing wrong with giving some kind of a extra cushion to the point in which you might start to sell your bitcoin, but if you are considering being able to buy back cheaper, then you are thinking about the matter different from my own thinking about how to set up my sales decisions (if any)..

It sounds like you got it all figured out... so "definitely" bitcoin is going to correct in the ways that you mentioned.

yeah right.      You really sound like a know it all newbie, who has it all figured out.


The right time for a no coiner newbie is to get started right away.  There is no way to turn back the clock, and waiting is not a strategy that prepares a no coiner for UP.  The only way to prepare for UP is to buy some bitcoin.


You sound mixed up. They are not waiting to consider themselves as an investor.  They come into bitcoin with a 4-10 year or longer timeline and they figure out their details regarding how they are going to approach their BTC investment in light or their own personal details.. .and figuring out their 9 factors.

They can also ignore the 9 factors and just wing it (and go by their gut feelings about when to get in and/or when to get out) like you seem to be suggesting, and hope that it all works out for them... maybe pray too.
 

I guess.  You seem to be saying not to wait now, but earlier you were suggesting to wait... So it is not easy to figure out what you are saying.. .. 


Your numbers are pretty whimpy and lame Tamaperdana.  You sound like a person who is going to end up selling too many bitcoin too soon, and also probably not accumulating enough either, especially if you believe bitcoin is only capable of your whmpy and lame price projections.

My own thinking has been evolving on the topic, so I am not really sure how to say it in ways that are really clear, since I think that each of us has to find our spot and our formula for when and how to start to employ something like a sustainable withdrawal.. not only in terms of the amount needed, but also who much could be withdrawn once we figure out that we have enough of a pot to be able to sustainably withdrawal.

Sure the dollar value of target is going to continue to move because of the ongoing debasement of the dollar - yet I still prefer not to let the ongoing and inevitalbe debasement of the dollar to interfere with my own calculations regarding how BTC can play a role in sustainable withdrawal, since it seems to me that bitcoin is not being debased at the same rate as fiat (that is if bitcoin is being debased at all since it has the opposite monetary policy that does not involve actual debasement but instead a fixed supply and a known rate of issuance.

So that $2 million comes from traditional ideas of a 4% withdrawal rate (which would therefor result in a $6,666 per month withdrawal - $80k per year), and since I am more and more inclined to believe that bitcoin bitcoin can sustain a 6% to 10% withdrawal rate, then that means that not as much bitcoin is needed to be able to achieve that same withdrawal amount of $6,666.  So right now presuming that 6% is sustainable, then that would mean that you would need $1,333,333 in order to get that same withdrawal of $80k per year and/or $6,666 per month, and if you are presuming that 10% is sustainable then you would only need $800k of BTC to obtain that same withdrawal of $80k per year and/or $6,666 per month.. ..

So using the 200-WMA, $2 million is 56.3 BTC, $1,333,333 is 37.5 BTC and $800k is 22.5BTC.  You can look for yourself at https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

So then the question becomes how much do you believe either the formulas being sustainable or alternatively that you might need some other kind of a cushion.. including if you have calculated your own income needs correctly.

I am not sure what you mean by 30%? 4% is the sustainable withdrawal rate for traditional investments, and I am thinking that 10% is sustainable for bitcoin, but yeah you could come to some other conclusion, but I would be hesitate to employ a really high withdrawal rates, such as 30%..


Yeah, but I don't base my own actions on spot price, unless you are considering some kind of a raking that you might want to do. and surely, with something like raking, you can set various prices that you would like to make withdrawals, such as every time the BTC price goes up 30%, you withdraw up to 3% of your BTC holdings.. again that would presume that you have overly accumulated and you are not necessarily withdrawing to buy back but instead you are selling in order to rake off some profits - and yeah, 3% every 30% might start to add up to selling way more BTC than you would have had wished, unless you had already decided that you had reached a status of over accumulation of BTC.

Regarding you presumption of Trump's election? and then whether that would cause a certain BTC price direction.  I am not sure about all of that.

Personally, despite USA politics, I am thinking that odds are pretty decently that BTC prices would end up bouncing around somewhere between $120k and $180k in 2024 (and yeah that is not much different from what you are saying), and that in 2025, the BTC prices are likely to reach higher levels than 2024.. I hate to personally attempt to be any more specific than that, yet in any event the main measure (from my point of view) of the 200-WMA is continuing to go up and currently going up right around $42 per day.

But yeah, if you are thinking about selling or shaving off some BTC, you are thinking in terms of how much spot price you are going to get rather than 200-WMA.. so I understand those spot price kinds of framings are important to folks (normies/hodlers).

Yeah, my current max is also 300, and I did it on May 7th with 5 sets of 60... and probably before this pushup challenge I had not done more than 100 pushups in a day.. I am not sure, but I cannot remember having any obsession with pushups prior to this challenge.

If I ever try to do 500 in a day, then I probably would do them in something between 12 and 15 sets, and it probably would not be exact sets.. I would just start out with as many I can do in good form, and then just keep doing that around every hour until I reach 500, and so maybe towards the end I might ONLY be able to do less than 30 per set.. but that is o.k... since I will likely start to get really close by the time I get towards the end of the day.. so maybe it is a day to look forward to.. .. so my current thinking is that either 1-5 days after BTC reaches $100k, then I will do as many pushups that I can during the time that I am awake.. presumptively once an hour from the time I get up until I either tell myself that I am done for the day.. or that I reach some number 500 or whatever that I am sufficiently satisfied to be a reasonable amount (for me)... Something to look forward to.

Here's my latest report:

100k,JayJuanGee,123,24425,2024-06-06

Whether good or bad, it largely ends up just reinforcing the Dollar Milk Shake theory.. so that more capital is going to be attracted to the dollar rather than the fiats that lowered their rates.  The dollar does not need to follow, and maybe the fact that other fiats are caving in to lower their interest rates will allow the dollar to stop from doing it.. or waiting before it does it.

Of course bitcoin is better than all of them, and some folks know it and other do not..


In other words, all of the fiats are fucked.. just that some are more fucked than others.

Regarding shiny ass:  No comment. 


Regarding big ass:  No comment.






Regarding big shiny ass:   




We probably need to see how these matters play out, but you might be correct about some kind of a future need to reconsider whether Bitstamp remains a good overall barometer of BTC price dynamics.


But you are still not into it - just saying.


You cannot think about the lowest price that you ever saw as if that was some kind of reasonable  entry.... that is just fantasyland.. to be thinking like that.. .. but even if you are whimpy and/or were whimpy in your thinking about bitcoin, you might have just considered that you could have had been investing into bitcoin in a kind of whimpy way between mid 2012 and mid-2016.. Even if you just bought $10 per week, you would still have had invested nearly $2,100, yet you would have had accumulated just over 44 BTC, so that surely would not be a bad place to be in terms of thinking about a kind of whimpy way to get into bitcoin.. but maybe not feeling as if you need to get out.. but part of your problem (and your problem that continues) is that you cannot resist to sell as soon as you get 40% to 100% profits.. so you never would have been able to hang onto your investment, even if you had invested pretty damned whimpily.

Even though you seem to believe that you had gotten over you issue of wanting to sell (and take profits), you still have such a similar problem of not being able to resist the temptation to sell way too many too soon... and you hardly have any ability to hold onto enough, so that maybe if the price is going up, you end up blowing your whole wadd.. and you only hold a fraction of what you should have had held.

We can even change the timeframe and change the amount, and I bet that you have not even beat a strict DCA return over 4 years.

Let's say that you started to invest $100 per week into bitcoin in mid-2016 and you invested for 4 years.  You would have still ended up investing right around $21k into bitcoin and you would have had accumulated right around 9.2 BTC, and not even that would be a bad place to be right now.

Right now, we have to take even a worse case scenario, and then we might say that we started  investing in mid 2020.. but instead we have to up the investment by 10x, and say that we started to invest $1k per week and for 4 years, and we would still have had gotten nearly 8 BTC out of the deal, even though we would have had to have invested nearly $210k over those 4 years... still not a bad place to be.

Part of trick is to accumulate over a whole cycle and maybe even over more than a whole cycle and then see where you are at, and selling is not part of accumulating.. buying is how you do the accumulating trick, and that is part of the trick that you have not figured out because you seem to believe that selling is part of the way that you accumulate bitcoin, when it is not...

Another thing is that you do not start to sell until you have accumulated enough and/or more than enough, and maybe even if you have accumulated more than enough, you are not selling to accumulate more but instead just selling in relatively small amounts.


Part of the thing is that we are talking about bitcoin, not about all that other various bullshit, so I am not exactly sure bout that calculator, but surely there still may be able to withdraw from whatever traditional assets that you have at a 4% per year rate, yet with bitcoin we can likely withdraw 6-10%  or perhaps even more as long as we have already gathered enough of it.

So if a traditional investment might require $6.6k per month, then there may need to be a $2million investment into various diversified assets and withdrawing at 4% per year.

But with bitcoin, I am thinking that $800k-ish will accomplish the same thing, as long as we are valuing ur bitcoin using the 200-WMA.. and so then we can figure out these kinds of matters with bitcoin and come up with a formula..   which I believe that right now 22.5 BTC is enough to produce the same results.. and perpetually be able to withdraw $6,666 per month and also to keep up with cost of living.  https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

But, yeah none of us can hold your hands even if some of the tools may well be there.. but you have to get to a certain stash level to be able to start to engage sustainable withdrawal.

And, yeah, maybe by the time we get into our 40s, 50s, and 60s we may well have both traditional investments that maybe at some point we would start to withdraw at 4%-ish, but it seems so much greater to be able to achieve similar if not better sustainable withdrawal with bitcoin and doing 10% per year... but you gotta get there first.. and so we might have some differing opinion levels in regards to what is "getting there" and also if some kind of an additional financial (or number of bitcoins) cushion might be preferable.


22.5 BTC seems enough for a $6,666 per month  (and perhaps even greater) withdrawal rate.


You are probably mixing philipma1957 up with searing... searing is the one who kept talking about having 100  BTC, then he was talking about having 90 BTC and then he disappeared from our conversation, so I suspect that searing made some kind of mistake that maybe relates to his disclosing too much about how much he had.


I doubt that you are completely wrong.. but still.. I am currently thinking that 22.5 BTC is enough.. so it could take another whole cycle or more before 10 BTC is enough.. and then 1 BTC might be another 2-3 cycles further down the road, but yeah, sure it depends on budgets too.. because in many developing locations (or under-developed locations, 10 BTC would currently be enough), but we are trying to start from the presumption of somewhat western standards.. and even within that we can have some differing opinions (including my own evolving to the point that I am willing to proclaim that currently 22.5 BTC to be enough for the default fuck you status).

I understand that you personally AlcoHoDL  require a higher cushion.. and no problem with that, but I still believe that you are requiring too much of a cushion, even though there is no real need to argue that it is better to error a bit on the conservative side rather than the other way around, even though I would proclaim that currently my 22.5 BTC is also conservative.. so we can agree to disagree... and what number are you going with right now?  You need something like 80BTC or some other ridiculous amount in order to start to withdraw $6,666 per month consistently, persistently and perpetually?  For me, that comes off as overkill... but whatever floats your boat.