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61  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2016, 02:18:41 PM
That fissure was less than a 4 % margin. Their currency dropped by 10 % in the first day. How much stomach will they have if it drops another ten percent?

I don't know what's going to happen, but I would be surprised if *they* let Britain leave without a fight.

The only they trying to stop Britain leaving without a fight are the naive.

Britain isn't going to keep rerunning the referendum like some banana republic, and there is no political will in the establishment of this country to undo this. Most of the ruling Conservatives are Eurosceptics for a start, and to engage in some civil war with the working classes would do a lot more harm to this country than whatever the markets can inflict.

I would like for you to be right, but those naive social justice warriors are merely the tool that *they* use to push *their* agenda. *They* have no concern for the harm that comes from this. In fact, civil war would just be step one in the classic playbook, getting the ball rolling towards another world war.

It's not like this hasn't been done before.

"But, rest assured, this will be the sixth time we have destroyed it, and we have become exceedingly efficient at it."
62  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2016, 11:31:59 AM
Every day that passes that bitcoin continues to exist lends proof to the concept that decentralized money is possible.

The control of money is the most direct form of control of people.

The Reddit is on about this new consortium of Chinese miners. In theory, if they collectively decided to blacklist transactions, how possible would it be to mine them yourself?

Edit: or better still, if the transaction was so odious that the entire BTC community, top to bottom, refused to mine them.

I guess a solo miner couldn't mine a block, so some pool would have to agree to not censor it. Isn't it?

No, it is not feasible to solo mine a block. It's possible, but you'd have no way of knowing when, if ever, that block would happen.

The theory is that markets would take care of this problem. A certain subset of pools would agree to mine these "odious" transactions, for a substantially higher fee. As the block reward continues to drop, these pools would be creating far more profit than pools that don't accept these high fee transition, which would lure more miners to switch pools, which is a further dis-incentive to blacklist these highly profitable transactions.

That is all just hypothetical of course, and there is work being done to improve censorship resistance:

https://petertodd.org/2016/closed-seal-sets-and-truth-lists-for-privacy
"Our goal here is to combat censorship by ensuring that miners do not have the information needed to selectively censor (blacklist) transactions"
63  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2016, 02:56:30 AM
Every day that passes that bitcoin continues to exist lends proof to the concept that decentralized money is possible.

The control of money is the most direct form of control of people.
64  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2016, 02:41:23 AM
It's important to remember that this vote is not binding, it's basically nothing more than guidance.

Great Britain is still a member of the EU and the process of actually leaving will involve much bureaucracy.

Nothing has changed yet, and if I were to don my tinfoil hat, I would expect that many people who have a vested interest in supporting the EU would conspire to use this excuse to greatly harm both the exchange rate of the pound and also cause havok in global markets to sow the seed of doubt. The margin was extremely thin and I would expect they will first impose as much hardship as possible and then call for a re-vote.

I think this is far from over. </tinfoil>

I thought the powers that be were meant to rig the election? Did they fall into a drunk stupor and forget their duty? The fact is, there is little stomach for averting this course, and little chance of closing the fissure.
That fissure was less than a 4 % margin. Their currency dropped by 10 % in the first day. How much stomach will they have if it drops another ten percent?

I don't know what's going to happen, but I would be surprised if *they* let Britain leave without a fight.

(Edit for clarity: *they* are anyone that benefits from a centralized control of Europe and a desire to extend that control through greater globalization to eventually encapsulate the world)
65  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 25, 2016, 01:09:25 AM
intersting that brexit could really happen against all that mainstream media etc.

this has a long-term influence on world econonmy, stability of eu and also gold/btc price.

True.

If this is the start of the unwashed masses waking up, not automatically trusting media and pollies thinking for themselves, then this is a watershed moment in history. And starting in the UK; who woulda thunk?


It's important to remember that this vote is not binding, it's basically nothing more than guidance.

Great Britain is still a member of the EU and the process of actually leaving will involve much bureaucracy.

Nothing has changed yet, and if I were to don my tinfoil hat, I would expect that many people who have a vested interest in supporting the EU would conspire to use this excuse to greatly harm both the exchange rate of the pound and also cause havok in global markets to sow the seed of doubt. The margin was extremely thin and I would expect they will first impose as much hardship as possible and then call for a re-vote.

I think this is far from over. </tinfoil>
66  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 23, 2016, 04:12:00 AM
Compact blocks and a few other improvements may allow us to move to 4-8MB block size capacities. (segwit + 2MB , or segwit + 4MB)

Interesting suggestions from theymos that other core devs agree with -

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4paju2/wladimir_van_der_laan_has_just_merged_compact/d4jjr3j

Also interesting how herr theymos' comments come on the day that "fully regulated" (eww) Circle Financial put people’s transactions in indeterminate limbo because of "spam-level" 40 sat/byte fees.

Especially interesting when miners already use blue blockstream matt’s relay network instead of compact blocks, making this whole "compact blocks allow segwit's 4MB attack surface" mantra utter BS.

Would it be wrong to say that the “totally unpredictable” collapse in BTC price started the day Core Media stated that segwit would be coming april july 7th without the 2MB non-witness data HF for 2017 activation that was promised to miners at the HK meeting? Maybe... though I remember the same dastardly things being said (and made into charts) about Classic.


So you don't attribute any weight to the fact that bitcoin was trading at double the cost of production? It's all about blocksize debate?
67  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 23, 2016, 04:02:54 AM
Any idea how much it costs to mine a coin these days, just before the Halvening?

Curious because I'd like to know what a realistic floor for the price would be based on how much it costs to actually mine a coin.

New equipment is coming out from bitmain https://www.bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=0002016052907243375530DcJIoK0654

Electricity cost based on that unit is only like 100 bucks per coin, http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1500.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=209453158595.38100000&r=25.00000000&er=674.90000000

Realistically, I would put a guess around the 400 to 600 range after the halving, no reason to be over 800 max...

Personally, I'm quite happy to see some rationality this time around,

"As low as possible for as long as possible."
Thanks for the hook-up on the calculator and the new info on the AntMiner.

I like "as low as possible for as long as possible." When it got to $700 I felt some FOMO kicking in, but wisely didn't buy in then, or at all.

After playing around with the calculators, after the Halvening drops the reward to 12.5, it looks like one could be reasonably satisfied mining 0.5 BTC per month with one of those AntMiners. They're sold out, but w/e, this is all just speculation anyway.

If I was hooked up to a pool and paid a 4% fee, then after paying power costs I'd be looking at around 0.33 BTC per month in profit. That's about 4 BTC per year for one machine. With the cost of a machine ATM being 4.218 BTC, it looks like it'd take about 13 months to ROI into the black. But then that doesn't take into account what happens to the difficulty over time, so...hmm.

My approximation then is that for BTC to be even remotely profitable, my thinking is that BTC's price needs to be higher than $100. Much higher. Even 5x higher. Am I mistaken? Maybe I don't have enough insight.

 you can't place any confidence in those long-term predictions. anything more than a couple months out is worse than speculation, that's just dreaming. if there is profit to be had, then the hash rate will increase up until the point where it wipes out those profits. also if you're consistently pulling 1500 W from a 15 amp 110 V plug you will burn out more than just your miner, you'll have sockets overheating and melting down, circuit breakers will be breaking, etc...

 I guess the real point I'm trying to make is that if there is profit to be made
 then that profit margin will be filled by increased competition and your profits will disappear, eventually. if you can get your hands on that latest gear you might do okay for about six months but you better make enough during that time to pay off your expenditure PLUS enough profit to outlay the risk and your own time, not to mention the extreme heat and noise...

68  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 23, 2016, 03:08:57 AM
Any idea how much it costs to mine a coin these days, just before the Halvening?

Curious because I'd like to know what a realistic floor for the price would be based on how much it costs to actually mine a coin.

New equipment is coming out from bitmain https://www.bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=0002016052907243375530DcJIoK0654

Electricity cost based on that unit is only like 100 bucks per coin, http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1500.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=209453158595.38100000&r=25.00000000&er=674.90000000

Realistically, I would put a guess around the 400 to 600 range after the halving, no reason to be over 800 max...

Personally, I'm quite happy to see some rationality this time around,

"As low as possible for as long as possible."
69  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 21, 2016, 12:02:34 PM

How can we hope for mass adoption when we can't even depend on having reliable exchanges. My faith in BTC is rapidly waning.

Bitfinex isn't going to lead fuck all to mass adoption. Would grandma wait a week to wire some money to Hong Kong or wherever? Is she going to get heavily into leverage? Doubtful. It's a bridge from the old days to the new ones and it could do with crumbling.

Grandma will figure it out when her grandkids photos get crypto-lockered.

Ransomware: it's not the use case you wanted, but it's the one you're stuck with.
70  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2016, 10:59:15 AM
>750 <72hours  Huh

I hope not.

People will get rekt on this, way worse than last time. Or the time before that.

There are going to be people who watch this with disbelief, and then when it just keeps going they will finally decide to jump on board once the price reaches 10,000.

and then when it drops to like 2 or 3k, they will be gutted , they will lose all hope and belief. they will sell everything at the bottom .

 (just like last time after the 2013 pump to 266 and then back down to 50.)

When the reality kicks in and it goes from 3k to 32k they will have already written this off as a scam, and they will blame you (me?) for their missed opportunity.




Friends don't tell friends about bitcoin.

There is a reason why only accredited investors are allowed to invest in certain opportunities. There is an expectation when they lose their shirt on a risky deal, they can recover from that loss.

When it's mom and pop going in on this shit, they will lose everything, ) and if the current socialist agenda prevails, it will be us who has to pick up the tab.
71  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2016, 10:47:10 AM
>750 <72hours  Huh

I hope not.

People will get rekt on this, way worse than last time. Or the time before that.

There are going to be people who watch this with disbelief, and then when it just keeps going they will finally decide to jump on board once the price reaches 10,000.

and then when it drops to like 2 or 3k, they will be gutted , they will lose all hope and belief. they will sell everything at the bottom .

 (just like last time after the 2013 pump to 266 and then back down to 50.)

When the reality kicks in and it goes from 3k to 32k they will have already written this off as a scam, and they will blame you (me?) for their missed opportunity.




Friends don't tell friends about bitcoin.
72  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 12, 2016, 12:51:18 AM
Holy guacamole, 618@finex and growing

edit: 622 Shocked

LOL!

You maniacs!

I guess the accumulation window is closing quick...
73  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2016, 09:11:00 PM
Nice Crisis coming for the Halving, Good FUD to trade on  Cheesy


http://www.coindesk.com/crisis-halving-bitcoin-mining/

“When the difficulty doesn’t change, but the hashing power shuts down immediately, there will be no next block. If, after the halving, the price does not go up, but the prices goes down, [there] will be heartache. It means no next block, no blockchain, all of the blockchain will be shut down immediately.”
Nah, he is painting the worst case scenario. I think so long as miners are at no less than a break even, and there is signs of a slow but steady price rise, then most will hang in and see where it goes. I don't see suddenly 300 PH dropping the day of halving.

Sure some will turn off their miners and wait it out, but would be spotty and mostly small home miners more than likely. Now if BTC is around 400 ish or worse at halving then there could be a real "problem Houston" But given where we are today in price..... I don't see a hard fork and all the other gloom and doom.

BTC is still the anchor for Alts such as Eth and so on.... now that could flip at some point? Eth becomes the new anchor in crypto, but unlikely  Wink

I think most people don't understand that in the event of a major drop in hash rate, your own personal rate of coin income will not change.

If you are earning 0.01 bitcoin/day before half the network drops off, you can expect to continue to make 0.01 btc/day until the next difficulty adjustment. The amount of time it takes until that adjustment will be increased of course, but after that adjustment inevitably happens, you can expect to make considerably more.
74  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2016, 03:48:25 AM
Just bought back in myself.

Just looking at how little BTC is even on the books to sell at the moment, on my current exchange, okcoin, and I'm feeling pretty bullish. Yeah buying at a 2 year ATH sounds really dumb, but this is bitcoin we are talking about, logic doesn't apply!


 logic does indeed apply.

 You mentioned how little bitcoins is available on current exchange..

 once you consider how little bitcoins is available to be mined as new issuance moving forward, then the logic of accumulation at the current price makes perfect sense

 in other news, can you guys please crash this thing already. As low as possible for as long as possible

Btw, for those that are new, almost 75% of all bitcoins that will ever exist have already been mined. Many of the very early coins were either lost or will likely never be spent. Sometime next month the rate of issuance will be cut in half, again. After that point there will only be 2.625 million issued over the next 4 years.

If things go badly in the world national fiat system, Fear of missing out will turn to panic. Or bitcoin could fail tomorrow and we discover that inescapable debt is really not a bad thing...

Interesting times ahead.
75  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: June 04, 2016, 03:35:28 AM
Just bought back in myself.

Just looking at how little BTC is even on the books to sell at the moment, on my current exchange, okcoin, and I'm feeling pretty bullish. Yeah buying at a 2 year ATH sounds really dumb, but this is bitcoin we are talking about, logic doesn't apply!


 logic does indeed apply.

 You mentioned how little bitcoins is available on current exchange..

 once you consider how little bitcoins is available to be mined as new issuance moving forward, then the logic of accumulation at the current price makes perfect sense

 in other news, can you guys please crash this thing already. As low as possible for as long as possible
76  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2016, 05:38:40 AM
Massive wall at 3500 has all the looks of a big crash coming

 I haven't been observing the walls very well lately, so your mileage may vary

*Edit* I think it might be starting to crack , probably just a retracement but watch out peeps
77  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2016, 05:27:05 AM
BTW, the disappearance of the "trolls" precedes the occurrence of the pump, just in case you're wondering where they've gone?

Their job is done.

Good point. Where are they  Cool

I think it's obvious at this point. Their sole purpose is to keep the price down . That is their job. That is what they are paid for.

 personally I am sad to see them leave .

 " as low as possible, for as long as possible."
78  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2016, 05:18:29 AM
BTW, the disappearance of the "trolls" precedes the occurrence of the pump, just in case you're wondering where they've gone?

Their job is done.
79  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2016, 05:11:18 AM
via Imgflip Meme Maker
80  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 28, 2016, 04:45:57 AM
Where da friggin rocket pics at ?

Rocket and it's happening pics have officially been banned till we cross $1k

I agree with both the assertion that celebration should be postponed until over 1000

 and also with your signature about decentralization , that thing which ensures the survival of bitcoin , should not be sacrificed in the pursuit of adoption'

 fucking let them eat cake
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