Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

[SheHadMANHands]

this seems rational if someone discovered some incredible exploit.  otherwise... nah

Bitcoin's value prop was always tied more to the application of "money", the strongest of network effects, than Solidity like smart contracts.  Reputation damage by association?  Arguably...  but Bitcoin market has never appeared to give any shits about Bitcoin's reputation, whether that be a consensus portrayed in mainstream media or elsewhere.  

[RGR991]

A factor may have been ETH soaring the past few days right after everyone shorted it because of the "hack attack"..people may have been forced to sell BTC to cover their margin calls on short positions on ETH, coupled with the fact that the BTC price was sky high with no real support levels  / Bitfinex was acting like Mt.Gox and there was a massive 20k coin "auction"


Maybe  

[Wyld]

oh god China let it be over

[RGR991]

Squeeze the hell out of it, My 560 purchase doesn't look so bad after all 

[BitUsher]

Compact blocks and a few other improvements may allow us to move to 4-8MB block size capacities. (segwit + 2MB , or segwit + 4MB)

Interesting suggestions from theymos that other core devs agree with -

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4paju2/wladimir_van_der_laan_has_just_merged_compact/d4jjr3j

[Wladestaucs]

Any idea how much it costs to mine a coin these days, just before the Halvening?

Curious because I'd like to know what a realistic floor for the price would be based on how much it costs to actually mine a coin.

[bitjanja]

all these speculation, eth being a cause, conspiranoia, cia, illuminati... so lol.

i like a lot btc, but from reading this forum i realize most ppl here are real fanatics on a promised winning lottery ticket. (scary shit)

i dont know if this huge ath will happen before halving, or in 5 years 30k, or never, but seems to me the ones reallly making profit are the ones doubling their money from pump to dump. and this is the reason behind this volatility, not complicated theories about 3 guys on ether and secret illuminati agendas. just profit, a huge power indeed!


and those with the "btc will save us all" thing... nah i dont buy it, seems to me u are just for the lottery big price thing too (just not realizing)

meantime, ill be sure not to get hypnotized with this folks btc church and quickly pump n dump like the smart ones.. at least il try. On the other side, after i do that ill be buying in again, for now.  

[shmadz]

Any idea how much it costs to mine a coin these days, just before the Halvening?

Curious because I'd like to know what a realistic floor for the price would be based on how much it costs to actually mine a coin.

New equipment is coming out from bitmain https://www.bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=0002016052907243375530DcJIoK0654

Electricity cost based on that unit is only like 100 bucks per coin, http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1500.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=209453158595.38100000&r=25.00000000&er=674.90000000

Realistically, I would put a guess around the 400 to 600 range after the halving, no reason to be over 800 max...

Personally, I'm quite happy to see some rationality this time around,

"As low as possible for as long as possible."

[glendall]

A 540 bottom would be fine Mr Bitcoin. Just keep on headed in the right direction, that's good now, keep goin' Mr Bitcoin...

[SheHadMANHands]

Maybe this is just a second "slap in the face" for the market, similar to the mini-bubble up to ~$500 and consolidation that followed.  Market is expecting sharp, rapid rises that can sustain for some time (like on two occasions in 2013).  But there's far more volume traded today, and avenues to profit from a short position, even indirectly (eth/btc).  Invisible hand keeps telling market it's too anxious, as it widely over and undershoots the "true" price.    

[Wladestaucs]

Any idea how much it costs to mine a coin these days, just before the Halvening?

Curious because I'd like to know what a realistic floor for the price would be based on how much it costs to actually mine a coin.

New equipment is coming out from bitmain https://www.bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=0002016052907243375530DcJIoK0654

Electricity cost based on that unit is only like 100 bucks per coin, http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1500.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=209453158595.38100000&r=25.00000000&er=674.90000000

Realistically, I would put a guess around the 400 to 600 range after the halving, no reason to be over 800 max...

Personally, I'm quite happy to see some rationality this time around,

"As low as possible for as long as possible."

Thanks for the hook-up on the calculator and the new info on the AntMiner.

I like "as low as possible for as long as possible." When it got to $700 I felt some FOMO kicking in, but wisely didn't buy in then, or at all.

After playing around with the calculators, after the Halvening drops the reward to 12.5, it looks like one could be reasonably satisfied mining 0.5 BTC per month with one of those AntMiners. They're sold out, but w/e, this is all just speculation anyway.

If I was hooked up to a pool and paid a 4% fee, then after paying power costs I'd be looking at around 0.33 BTC per month in profit. That's about 4 BTC per year for one machine. With the cost of a machine ATM being 4.218 BTC, it looks like it'd take about 13 months to ROI into the black. But then that doesn't take into account what happens to the difficulty over time, so...hmm.

My approximation then is that for BTC to be even remotely profitable, my thinking is that BTC's price needs to be higher than $100. Much higher. Even 5x higher. Am I mistaken? Maybe I don't have enough insight.

[DaRude]

all these speculation, eth being a cause, conspiranoia, cia, illuminati... so lol.

i like a lot btc, but from reading this forum i realize most ppl here are real fanatics on a promised winning lottery ticket. (scary shit)

i dont know if this huge ath will happen before halving, or in 5 years 30k, or never, but seems to me the ones reallly making profit are the ones doubling their money from pump to dump. and this is the reason behind this volatility, not complicated theories about 3 guys on ether and secret illuminati agendas. just profit, a huge power indeed!


and those with the "btc will save us all" thing... nah i dont buy it, seems to me u are just for the lottery big price thing too (just not realizing)

meantime, ill be sure not to get hypnotized with this folks btc church and quickly pump n dump like the smart ones.. at least il try. On the other side, after i do that ill be buying in again, for now.  

There's a lot of fanaticism around BTC, but beyond that, the pump was lead by China and so was the dump. If anyone can explain how buying a bunch of coins in $700+ range and dumping them under $600 can get you rich i'm all ears. From what i've seen it didn't cause havoc and there was no chance to rebuy lower, a basic factor for profitable pump and dump

[spooderman]

in case anyone is looking for a reason

BREXIT

my conclusion is that if brexit happens, resources for things like bitcoin will dry up.

an ill wind blows nobody any good.

[dumbfbrankings]

Compact blocks and a few other improvements may allow us to move to 4-8MB block size capacities. (segwit + 2MB , or segwit + 4MB)

Interesting suggestions from theymos that other core devs agree with -

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4paju2/wladimir_van_der_laan_has_just_merged_compact/d4jjr3j

Also interesting how herr theymos' comments come on the day that "fully regulated" (eww) Circle Financial put people’s transactions in indeterminate limbo because of "spam-level" 40 sat/byte fees.

Especially interesting when miners already use blue blockstream matt’s relay network instead of compact blocks, making this whole "compact blocks allow segwit's 4MB attack surface" mantra utter BS.

Would it be wrong to say that the “totally unpredictable” collapse in BTC price started the day Core Media stated that segwit would be coming april july 7th without the 2MB non-witness data HF for 2017 activation that was promised to miners at the HK meeting? Maybe... though I remember the same dastardly things being said (and made into charts) about Classic.

[shmadz]

Any idea how much it costs to mine a coin these days, just before the Halvening?

Curious because I'd like to know what a realistic floor for the price would be based on how much it costs to actually mine a coin.

New equipment is coming out from bitmain https://www.bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=0002016052907243375530DcJIoK0654

Electricity cost based on that unit is only like 100 bucks per coin, http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1500.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=209453158595.38100000&r=25.00000000&er=674.90000000

Realistically, I would put a guess around the 400 to 600 range after the halving, no reason to be over 800 max...

Personally, I'm quite happy to see some rationality this time around,

"As low as possible for as long as possible."

Thanks for the hook-up on the calculator and the new info on the AntMiner.

I like "as low as possible for as long as possible." When it got to $700 I felt some FOMO kicking in, but wisely didn't buy in then, or at all.

After playing around with the calculators, after the Halvening drops the reward to 12.5, it looks like one could be reasonably satisfied mining 0.5 BTC per month with one of those AntMiners. They're sold out, but w/e, this is all just speculation anyway.

If I was hooked up to a pool and paid a 4% fee, then after paying power costs I'd be looking at around 0.33 BTC per month in profit. That's about 4 BTC per year for one machine. With the cost of a machine ATM being 4.218 BTC, it looks like it'd take about 13 months to ROI into the black. But then that doesn't take into account what happens to the difficulty over time, so...hmm.

My approximation then is that for BTC to be even remotely profitable, my thinking is that BTC's price needs to be higher than $100. Much higher. Even 5x higher. Am I mistaken? Maybe I don't have enough insight.

 you can't place any confidence in those long-term predictions. anything more than a couple months out is worse than speculation, that's just dreaming. if there is profit to be had, then the hash rate will increase up until the point where it wipes out those profits. also if you're consistently pulling 1500 W from a 15 amp 110 V plug you will burn out more than just your miner, you'll have sockets overheating and melting down, circuit breakers will be breaking, etc...

 I guess the real point I'm trying to make is that if there is profit to be made
 then that profit margin will be filled by increased competition and your profits will disappear, eventually. if you can get your hands on that latest gear you might do okay for about six months but you better make enough during that time to pay off your expenditure PLUS enough profit to outlay the risk and your own time, not to mention the extreme heat and noise...

[shmadz]

Compact blocks and a few other improvements may allow us to move to 4-8MB block size capacities. (segwit + 2MB , or segwit + 4MB)

Interesting suggestions from theymos that other core devs agree with -

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4paju2/wladimir_van_der_laan_has_just_merged_compact/d4jjr3j

Also interesting how herr theymos' comments come on the day that "fully regulated" (eww) Circle Financial put people’s transactions in indeterminate limbo because of "spam-level" 40 sat/byte fees.

Especially interesting when miners already use blue blockstream matt’s relay network instead of compact blocks, making this whole "compact blocks allow segwit's 4MB attack surface" mantra utter BS.

Would it be wrong to say that the “totally unpredictable” collapse in BTC price started the day Core Media stated that segwit would be coming april july 7th without the 2MB non-witness data HF for 2017 activation that was promised to miners at the HK meeting? Maybe... though I remember the same dastardly things being said (and made into charts) about Classic.

So you don't attribute any weight to the fact that bitcoin was trading at double the cost of production? It's all about blocksize debate?

[dumbfbrankings]

Compact blocks and a few other improvements may allow us to move to 4-8MB block size capacities. (segwit + 2MB , or segwit + 4MB)

Interesting suggestions from theymos that other core devs agree with -

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4paju2/wladimir_van_der_laan_has_just_merged_compact/d4jjr3j

Also interesting how herr theymos' comments come on the day that "fully regulated" (eww) Circle Financial put people’s transactions in indeterminate limbo because of "spam-level" 40 sat/byte fees.

Especially interesting when miners already use blue blockstream matt’s relay network instead of compact blocks, making this whole "compact blocks allow segwit's 4MB attack surface" mantra utter BS.

Would it be wrong to say that the “totally unpredictable” collapse in BTC price started the day Core Media stated that segwit would be coming april july 7th without the 2MB non-witness data HF for 2017 activation that was promised to miners at the HK meeting? Maybe... though I remember the same dastardly things being said (and made into charts) about Classic.

So you don't attribute any weight to the fact that bitcoin was trading at double the cost of production? It's all about blocksize debate?

Not really, this was the halving pump. Take a look at litecoin for how those work.

Altho, I've learned from the best... the means justify the righteous ends, apparently, right? Like moderation... funny word that.

[r0ach]

Not really, this was the halving pump. Take a look at litecoin for how those work.

The BTC price peaks post halving, not pre-halving.

Anyone with an IQ over 2 can look at your post history and May 2016 join date and see you're a paid anti-bitcoin shill account.  Keep rubbing your rat claws together fantasizing about the clanging of shekels from your jew banker overlords.

[pleaseexplainagain]

Any idea how much it costs to mine a coin these days, just before the Halvening?

Curious because I'd like to know what a realistic floor for the price would be based on how much it costs to actually mine a coin.

New equipment is coming out from bitmain https://www.bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=0002016052907243375530DcJIoK0654

Electricity cost based on that unit is only like 100 bucks per coin, http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1500.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=209453158595.38100000&r=25.00000000&er=674.90000000

Realistically, I would put a guess around the 400 to 600 range after the halving, no reason to be over 800 max...

Personally, I'm quite happy to see some rationality this time around,

"As low as possible for as long as possible."

I think it should be assumed that for some big miners the cost of electricity is close to zero ie through a range of deals and connections and under the table profit sharing (corruption) they are in reality paying nothing.so the cost to make a bitcoin is more down to the roi on equipment and even then some equipment may be bought using regional or state funding/incentives. My guess the cost produce a bitcoin maybe just $100-$200.