<snip> Useful info </snip>
he loves me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Very mature and constructive response. Anyone following you deserves what they get. You're a fool. |
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Beware of stayeduplate, he is dishonest and only picks super favorites to appear to be a good capper. He just wants your referral signups
Here's some real info for the noobs.
Disclaimer: If you're just betting to add excitement to your games, then you should make whatever the hell kind of bets you want to. This post is intended for people who want to have a better chance of making some money in the long run.
In my earlier post What Does -110 Mean I showed how to calculate the win rate you need in order to make money when making wagers at various odds. As a review, if you have to wager x dollars to win y you need to win x/(x+y) percent of the time in order to break even.
So, if you make a bet at -110 odds, you're betting $110 to win $100 and you'll need to win 110/(110+100) = 11/21 = .5238 or 52.38% of your bets to break even.
If we look at Pinnacle's website under the Parlay / Accumulator Rules section, we find a table with the payouts for parlay cards with all bets at -110 odds. When you make a parlay bet, you're grouping a set of wagers into a single bet with the parlay paying out only if all of the bets in the group win. Even though the parlay involves multiple bets, we should evaluate it as if it were a single wager when determining its value.
Now a quick review of basic probability. When we have multiple events and we want to determine the probability of all of them occuring, we multiply the probabilies of each occuring individually and that product is our answer. For example, the odds of a fair coin landing head is 0.5. The odds of two fair coins landing heads is (0.5)(0.5)=0.25 or 25%. Generally, the odds of an event which occurs with probability p occuring n times in a row is pn.
Back to parlays. I'm going to take the table from the Pinnacle link I posted above and add a few things. First, I'm adding a hypythetical 1 team parlay just to remind us what a single team bet looks like in relation to the rest of the table. Next, I'm adding a column to show us the US odds and a column that tells us what percentage of these bets we need to win in order to break even.
Number of Teams Win Per Unit Bet Return Per Unit Bet US Odds Target Win Rate
1 0.909 1.909 -110 52.4%
2 2.6 3.6 260 27.7%
3 6 7 600 14.3%
4 12 13 1200 07.7%
5 24 25 2400 04.0%
6 45 46 4500 02.2%
7 80 81 8000 01.2%
8 150 151 15000 00.7%
That doesn't look too bad, right? We only need to win 0.7% of our 8 team parlays to break even. How hard can that be? Let's assume, for simplicity, that all of the plays on our ticket have an equal chance of winning. We saw above that the probability of n events occuring when each has a probability p individually is pn, so we can take the nth root of each of the values in the Target Win Rate column (remembering that 52.4% = 0.524) to see how confident we need to be in each of the individual games in order to make this a positive EV bet.
I've modified the table above and changed the last column to give us the required per game win rate:
Number of Teams Win Per Unit Bet Return Per Unit Bet US Odds Per Game Win Rate
1 0.909 1.909 -110 52.4%
2 2.6 3.6 260 52.7%
3 6 7 600 52.3%
4 12 13 1200 52.5%
5 24 25 2400 52.7%
6 45 46 4500 52.8%
7 80 81 8000 53.3%
8 150 151 15000 53.4%
Notice that with the exception of the three game parlay, the Per Game Win Rate is higher which tells us that you're better off sticking to the standard -110 bet.
There are a few obvious questions to answer now:
Does it matter that you assumed that all of the games on the ticket had the same chance of hitting? What if they're different?
The short answer is no. You aren't certain enough of the outcomes of these games to nail it down very well, and even if you were you still have to multiply the individual probabilities together to get the final answer. If you remember how to optimize a function from your high school calculus you'll remember that you're best off when all of the values are the same. If you don't remember then you can research it or just take my word for it. It's up to you.
Does that mean the three game parlay is a good bet? or What if my book doesn't charge extra vig on parlay tickets?
A book not charging extra vig would mean that the payoff for the parlay ticket was exactly the product of the payoff for the inidvidual games. I was surprised to learn that some books actually do this and it does make parlays look more attractive, but there is a hidden cost. In both the three team case at Pinnacle and in the case where you're not paying extra vig, you're still taking on more variance for very little (or no) extra return.
In short, variance tells us how long we might expect to go without winning a wager. In the case of the three team ticket we need to win 14.3% of our wagers but compared to 52.4% of our -110 bets. This means that we will have much longer dry streaks with the parlay strategy. Longer dry streaks mean smaller bankrolls and a greater chance of washing out. If you base your unit bet size on the size of your bankroll (and you almost certainly should) that means that when you hit dry streaks and your bankroll drops you'll be winning less when you finally hit because your unit size is smaller.
For example, suppose you start with a $100 bankroll and decide that for you a unit is 2%. If you go down five units your new bankroll is $90 and your new unit is $1.81. If you win five units now, your bankroll is $99.05. You're down 1% of your starting cash. The bottom line here is that your EV is almost identical in the three team parlay vs three bets at -110 so there is no reason to take on the added risk associated with longer dry streaks.
TL;DR: Don't make parlay bets. You're just giving extra money to your bookie and making it harder to be profitable.
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Picks for today we go 7-0 yesterday lets go perfect today. BTW please go to the site signup and pick games and live chat with everyone! BTCBTCBTCNCAFF 11/29 1:00pm Ball State vs Miami (OH) TAKE Ball State 11/29 8:00pm Central FL vs S Florida TAKE Central FL 11/29 3:00pm Fla Atlantic vs Florida Intl TAKE Fla Atlantic 11/29 2:30pm LSU vs Arkansas TAKE LSU 11/29 7:00pm Oregon vs Oregon St TAKE Oregon 11/29 2:00pm Ohio vs U Mass TAKE Ohio NCABB 11/29 1:00pm Michigan St vs Mt St Marys TAKE Michigan St 11/29 4:00pm Cincinnati vs Kennesaw St TAKE Cincinnati 11/29 5:00pm Ohio State vs N Florida TAKE Ohio State 11/29 8:00pm Boise State vs Portland St TAKE Boise State 11/29 3:00pm Michigan vs Coppin State TAKE Michigan 11/29 5:00pm Towson vs Citadel TAKE Towson 11/29 3:00pm Oklahoma vs AR Lit Rock TAKE Oklahoma 11/29 6:00pm Maryland vs Morgan St TAKE Maryland 11/29 8:00pm Texas Tech vs TX-San Ant TAKE Texas Tech 11/29 12:30pm Providence vs Fairfield TAKE Providence 11/29 8:00pm Texas vs TX-Arlington TAKE Texas 11/29 8:00pm Illinois vs IPFW TAKE Illinois 11/29 11:30pm UCLA vs Northwestern TAKE UCLA 11/29 7:00pm W Michigan vs Cornell TAKE W Michigan 11/29 7:00pm Louisville vs S Mississippi TAKE Louisville 11/29 7:00pm VCU vs Northeastrn TAKE VCU 11/29 11:59pm Arizona St vs Col Charlestn TAKE Arizona St Here is the book I use bitbook.bizFeel free to sign up and talk about the games for free at www.crowdcapper.com ! for today! Nice spamming! Sucks that you are trying to trick noobs this way... sports betting is pretty fun now that Ive learned a bit. Shame on you. |
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5 bet parlay 1.290 / -345 What a joke  |
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no, but I wouldn't put all my savings in a bank neither  Why not? There's no cost to having it in the bank as long as you meet the minimum monthly required balance There may not be cost, but there is certainly risk. Ask Cyprus. |
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Keep panicking please Thanks. |
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Keep panicking please |
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Not sure if this has been brought up before, probably has; search function sucks here, but could BFX integrate btc-e at least for their ltc order book?
Maybe they could for the btc/ltc orders but I think getting fiat in and out of BTC-E isn't that easy or cheap. I doubt it would be worth it for them; BTC-E doesn't offer volume transaction fee discounts afaik and the ltc market is comparatively small. I hope its not too difficult, LTC/usd is where the volatility is at. Could have made a killing this week, BFX LTC order books are way too thin to trade atm. |
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Not sure if this has been brought up before, probably has; search function sucks here, but could BFX integrate btc-e at least for their ltc order book?
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Could we lower the min bet again?
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Cricket Australia (1st Test)
England (1st Test) Australia (1st Test) ML 3 days, 19 hours ago 2.520 / +152 Unsettled
All bets on the 1st test have now been graded. Thanks bud, this is the only bet I've ever experienced delay on. Great service. |
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Cricket Australia (1st Test)
England (1st Test) Australia (1st Test) ML 3 days, 19 hours ago 2.520 / +152 Unsettled
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I hold gold and bitcoin.
i buy things with btc all the time.
i have never ever ever ever bought anything with gold.
Ding Ding Dingaling! |
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Only room for 4x growth? Bearish as fuckkkkk |
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I'm a huge fan of bitcoinwisdom.com
I use that as well, but it's only got 3 indicators: MACD, KDJ and StochRSI. Handy, but I like to be able to keep an eye on RSI and 10/21 EMA's as well. Wisdom can to EMAs Click SETTINGS then PARAMETERS |
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There's no new paradigm, there also isn't actually a real bubble (yet). We went parabolic for a short while and then had a pretty sizable correction pretty much all the way back to where the parabolic rise had started. This is perfectly normal and not a crash or 'bubblepop' like some would claim. Bitcoin is getting really popular right now and lots of new money is arriving at the exchanges wanting to buy so the correction will be kinda shortlived I think. This correction may not yet completely be over though, but I do think we have already seen the bottom. The top of this 'bubble' will in my opinion be somewhere between $2000 and $3000, after which the hype subsides a bit and we go back to $1000 or so (either in a dramatic crash or a painfully long bear market, or both  ). If bitcoin infrastructure grows well and it becomes more noob friendly in the future then the sky really will be the limit, but we're not that far yet.  100% with you. |
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