That was my first computer too.  I still have a Mac, a Mac+ and an SE30.  I could never part with them.  I also have three vintage clamshell ibooks in pretty pristine condition (yep - diehard Steve Jobs fanboi). I am a design junkie.

Looks legit enough.

I would very much like to see Wright get his comeuppance in court. So I feel this campaign must be worth supporting - as I just have.

One thing with UK law is that any defamation is assumed to be false by the court unless the party accused of the defamation can prove otherwise, or the party is deemed to have been making 'fair comment'.

However, UK courts do not always take kindly to the rich and powerful using the court process to silence those who embarrass them when they are fair game - as even government ministers have found out to their cost.  The court might find in favour of CSW - but also may snub him by awarding no damages - or dismiss his claim out as fair comment, since it is true that he has never proved able to categorically back up his claims he 'is' Satoshi.  

Wright, in my opinion is trying to use the threat of action to make someone making reasonable comment climb down; to use his power to win against someone he feels he can crush.  I hope I will enjoy finding out what happens, and although I do not know Holdonaut, he deserves a decent defence against a man who I never for one moment found it in me to believe.

I hope this backfires, I really do.  Please give to Holdonaut's defence if you agree he deserves support.

Premier League and Champions League are different competitions. The CL is the winning teams from the individual European countries' leagues and cups, in a once a year European (club) competition.

Welcome back Mayor, good to know you're still standing.   Hope you had nothing in QuadrigaCX

I just lost an age wading through that '59 Sport Fury restoration. The amount of work, skill and dedication... Jeez.

It does, yep.  Gotta love English - turning nouns referring to mediaeval siege machines into verbs is totally allowed and in this case totally appropriate.

First time I saw it happen though.  I will put a Jojo™ on it when I use it

Ooh - you turned trebuchet into a verb.  Gonna nick that - it's useful.  I owe you a pint.

It might feasibly get close enough for 'squeaky bum time' - but it ain't gonna actually happen, your riches are safe.

Yep - front running creating a false start is actually even 'likely' (given expectations).

An early rush going over 10k by autumn this year, lots of froth and fomo starting and then a pull back before EOY, just as the 'here we go' was kicking in.  

Then two runs makes sense, too

A fake run that fizzles before 'Moon' and baffles everyone.  Then a 'real run' becomes possible (and organic) after a few month's breather.  I can see that as a very plausible scenario.

Late, long thoughts - on the 'are we going faster?' subject:

Now, I am not a TA guy, more of an economics nerd with an interest in history and behavioural economics.  But I am trying to glean something useful from Bitcoin's unique patterns - and while I am not a chart demon, I have spent a few years watching lines and charts here.

Firstly: Why earlier this year I became convinced about the bottom being in.

I was watching for the January low, which is when (apart from the last two 'ATH in December' years) we seemed to always seem the annual low for most years - usually around the end of the second week of Jan.

One thing I was also watching was the (unfashionable) 3 Day chart (200/50MA)
 
Here is late late 2014 to Jan 2015 chart:


Note the MAs 'death cross' and the immediate freefall to the absolute low.  About 9 of the 3day candles after the cross.

Then here is the same period now:


Note the same freefall right after the MA death cross - in a similar time frame - to what I now think is the absolute cycle low (again).

At first I waited for January, expecting the 'real' low might still be in January.  Then, when it wasn't lower than 3122, I sought out the 3Day charts and the pattern seemed to make it pretty obvious the bottom was definitely December.  The main thing that is noticeable if we are looking at the fractal nature of this is that the 2018 death cross was earlier (in November) not in December as per 2014.

Secondly: Since then, I have tried plotting ratios for daily price patterns to match historical data (price 'now' vs 2015) starting at comparing from the start point of the two crossover points (in spreadsheets) and then running again comparing from the two January low points etc... but it still didn't really crunch to explain this last push up to over 5K - as Hairy just posted here too. One outlier spike? Perhaps - but I seriously doubt it.

However, this divergence does not mean there is no worth in continuing to measure over time and watching things like how long it is until the MAs cross in the opposite direction back up again (etc.)  It was 13 months after the 2014 cross until it pushed up through it again (but that is too long to wait for!)

The 3-day death cross was early.  The 5K seems not-to-pattern, too - but I think it is also 'too early to say' and 2015 was a volatile year (as this one is starting to look like it might become).

So what's this long post for?

I am throwing this up for Hairy, Toxic, fillippone and all - just in case it helps in the debate and helps in finding as many key points as possible to watch. Things to watch and check if the fractal is matching, going at the same pace, or not.  The actual price obviously cannot possibly fit exactly - but there has been a pattern and it's been too close to ignore.  A 4-year cycle, an 85% drop from the high, highs in December... we have all spotted it.  But what will tell us more; or bring up further thoughts that might lend an edge to guessing what's coming?

That so many have noted a pattern and want to track it means (as I said in my last long post) it is likely it will be front run and therefore the pattern will break...  Perhaps only in terms of its velocity, perhaps in totally breaking it - but there are numbers, markers, and time points along the way - so it must be possible to at least see how close it's running to pattern, or if it's diverging predictably, or just veering off.

Thoughts welcome on other things it would be good to factor in.  One thing that is obvious is that the traditional 'big gun' TA gurus have been pretty useless in predicting the hike we just had - so some thinking out of the box is surely warranted. They seem to be a tad behind accepting the kind of thinking in here thus far - and only just catching up.  It's only now that a few of them are saying cautiously 'the bottom is in', when there was surely at least a case for saying it by the end of January.

In here it's been more optimistic - I think rightly so, too.  Of course in 2015, no one was expecting another bubble as spectacular as 2017.  Now everyone assumes we 'will' have a even bigger bubble again... as sure as eggs are eggs - and are just arguing about 'when'. I do think we will have one more huge bull run, but how will it play out?  

Well, it will maybe rhyme - but it cannot be quite the same.  And that's... as sure as honey badger not giving a shit.

DYOR: This is speculation and as always can be dead wrong, but what the hell - ain't no walls to observe any more...

Yeah me too - I have had three 'wisdom pages open in tabs for years:  Stamp BTC/ Finex BTC / Polo (for XMR/BTC)

It started getting glitchy a couple of days back - now all three are just frozen.   

Will check .io out - I am just used to the candles and indicators. 

A little positive TA:

'I think anyone entering between $70 - $115 will be very happy by EOY.'

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRUSD/yVzhW010-Monero-Outlook-2019/?utm_campaign=ideas-stream&utm_medium=widget&utm_source=www.kitco.com

DYOR

Maybe it's such good promotion, he got the loan at zero interest. 

He'd probably know some of the people involved. When you're rich and famous, you get far more for free.  There are some people who are always on the guest list - it's good for business.

The price has risen by 50% in less than four months and we're a bit 'meh' because it's not doing more.

No wonder the institutions are terrified of it

But Bicoiners can handle it; they can't. 

Gotta love it - we are veteran soldiers in a world where others will follow in awe that we were there when it all started.


Some bloke called Kipling talked about what it takes to hodl:

If you can keep your head when all about you   
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,   
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too;   
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
    And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;   
    If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;   
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
    And treat those two impostors just the same;   
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
    Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
    And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
    And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
    To serve your turn long after they are gone,   
And so hodl on when there is nothing in you
    Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hodl on!’

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,   
    Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
    If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
    With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,   
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,   
    And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

Nite all...

Hey infofront - well done for taking the time to really dig deep.

Great post, great research and graphics too.  Classy stuff.  

I do enjoy the thread thinking for itself and challenging accepted dogma - the quality and variety of expertise here is as wide as the subjects covered in these pages; it's capable of applying independent thought to almost anything under the sun.... and far, far beyond it.

Long live the WO!

EDIT: for sense and stuff

Plain sailing all the way is not realistic, of course - this is Bitcoin after all.  Keeping expectations in check and being pleasantly surprised is probably a better strategy than the reverse of it. That said, a little spring in the step is probably warranted.  We are a fair way over $3122, after all...

Dead? Nah, it's pining for the fjords!

A settling back is to be expected after such a remarkable rise...  But any remaining doubts the bear market is over are surely now disappearing.

Edited:  posts comin' too fast...

Casual as you like, Toxic, strong hands have worked hard hanging in there for long enough.  It's time to enjoy the ride.

@ProfTP - thanks, but maybe it isn't the guts, now it's more about whether you have cash you can get in in time


@Hairy - Yes, agreed - it will be huge... there are so many magnifying factors it's looking perfectly tuned for acceleration.

Bring it on indeed.

Been thinking:

I have been trying to crunch historical prices of late to see if I can spot patterns between data sets from 2015 and 2019. Patterns that might allow me some kind of edge in future price prediction. And not just so I can win one of MicG's games

Obviously I've been trying this because it's apparent that there are established cycles and even uncannily close ratios that appear in Bitcoin related to halvings, absolute bottoms and ATHs.

Many have predicted this cycle will take longer than previously, saying that cycles appear to be getting more drawn out.

However - there is a simple factor at work here which I think means this is not the case, which is that once something is reasonably predictable then you can reasonably anticipate it. For instance, it's not stupid to postulate that it's usually cold in January in the Northern hemisphere, so you pack warm and waterproof items of clothing if you intend to be there and spend time outside. You cannot predict the precise temperature on a given day - but you know it's a safe bet in January it's going to be cold.

What the hell has the weather got to do with Bitcoin?  Well, the more confirmation that the cycle is looking like it's heading for a repeat akin to the past (as sure as the seasons inevitably change) it follows that more people will feel confident in front-running it.  Logically, if it has bottomed and is now almost definitely going up rather than down, then (equally logically) it's batshit crazy not to buy before it gets more expensive.  Especially as the pesky damn digital things are going to be more difficult to acquire, since the supply is decreasing.  OTC is not necessarily going to be so easy, either - and some miners may perhaps delay selling quite so quickly.  The feedback loop will be powerful with so much media interest and the institutional money around, too.

Now - bear with me? Let me spool back to the post-Gox era and the 'bubble/bust' before the 17/18 one we have just come through.

In January 2015 I did buy at the bottom, but not because I had any god-like foresight. Not at all.

Frankly, I didn't know if Bitcoin would ever come back (did anyone for sure?) However, I was underwater with my investment, so the only thing to do was to buy more to average my cost down and make a breakeven more likely in future.  I wasn't certain, I just felt I had to either sell, or double down, and I didn't want to quit.  So, I steeled myself, trusted my instinct and bought a load more.  With 20/20 hindsight it was probably the best financial decision I ever made, but if you'd said to me then that the bitcoins I had just bought for sub 200 bucks would be worth nearly $20K less than three years later - I would probably have thought you were crazy. Back then this thread had tumbleweed rolling through and sometimes not one post (apart from chart buddy) for hours.

What I am driving at is that today it's just not the same as back then.  Now, we have had bubbles and crashes that look like fractals with some trend regularity being apparent and yes, looking predictable. Now, no one has any illusions that BTC could not easily hit 20K again.  Now, any doubts about increasingly higher prices returning once the bottom is 'obviously' in the rear view mirror will disappear pretty fast.

So, the more the price 'recovers' the more asymmetrical a bet on Bitcoin looks.  5K? A risk? What fucking risk!

Back to my workings on that pattern overlay I mentioned.  Well right now the bunch of models I set up are looking out of sync. Now I may be VERY wrong of course and it's not based on nearly enough data, but it looks to me like it's going faster than it should be.

Certainly some people, including me in my small way, have been steadily accumulating.  Sooner or later of course, no matter what - it had to start to increasingly affect price.  And then, well...  it doesn't take a genius to see that buying now what is already rising again and highly likely to be at a lot higher price level before too long, just makes sense. The feedback loop will be way more powerful. Bitcoin has blown everyone away more than once, fewer and fewer people will be prepared to bet against it anymore. Now, it's got 'previous form'.

And for anyone who has a lot already - it's looking foolish to risk trying price suppression in order to accumulate anymore - not when tens of millions of $ can flip the price up 20% or more in the wee small hours of the morning.

Maybe there isn't so much time left to accumulate at these levels after all?

Also, here's a thing: what if the very supposed 'predictability' of Bitcoin will mean it can't be this time? In a sort of 'Heisenburg's uncertainty principle' way, the very act of having measured it, makes the measurement invalid - as the market is expecting it.

Forgive the long ramble - I am just feeling things are different and any assumptions we have of what 'the cycle' should do and how long it should take are a tad out of date. And I am sure I can't be the only soul on this planet thinking along these lines.

So: what if the common assumptions are indeed totally out of date and it starts running away far earlier than expected?  

Well, I just hope you've already packed your bags for the trip and they are as full as possible.  Don't worry, though - I have a feeling it won't be too cold where we are headed.

In fact, it's probably a good idea to bring your shades.



NB: I sometimes have flights of fancy that are utterly risible, I just wanted to float this for fun. After all, the one thing you can rely on with honey badger - is that it doesn't give a fuck about what you are expecting it to do, right?
DYOR.