Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jbreher]

Can I say Come Onnnnn!!!!!!!! LFC 1-2 @the moment

pity that I couldn't see it live

The KING

We are going NOWHERE in this title fight 

Why is the green dude wearing a shoe on his hand?

[jbreher]

Lol at Finex walls. BTC1200 bid @ $5069, and ~BTC1000 ask @ $5150 someone trying to corner the market? Oops i might be in a wrong thread

Nah, you're fine. We still allow talk of wall observation here.

[jbreher]

Jbear

The market has spoken.  

BSV is a classic shitcoin descending towards zero which will never regain its previous heights.  Some other shiny new shitcoin will come along and replace it as the "next Bitcoin". It has had its run.

Nothing you can say or do will change that.  



This is what BSV will look like in 2022

'Tis possible. My money says you'll be proven wrong. Either way, WTF does that have to do with any ongoing discussion here?

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

OK, so you keep asserting that BTC has a plan to deal with the negative effects of persistently full blocks. HOWEVER, after repeated requests to reveal what that plan actually consists of, you do nothing but deflect and dissemble. I call BullShit.

attempting to put some kind of burden on me and others to describe core's plan in a way that is acceptable to you...

Despite your protestations, you have utterly failed

-- in any manner whatsoever -- to describe any core plan for dealing with the negative effects of full blocks.

You are not the boss of me.  I don't have to follow either your mandate or your framework.  I have answer the question sufficiently well enough in my several posts, and if you need to read through the lines, then fine, you should be able to handle that.. smarty pants.

'Acceptable to me' has nothing the fuck to do with it.

Yes, it does.  You are creating an assignment and a framework about what is "acceptable."  Go play that game somewhere else.  We are watching walls and corners, here.  Not talking about how supposedly wonderful the centralized planning of your bcash variants nonsense is.

I like bitcoin's conservative approach.

Then you are deluded. BTC's The SegWit Omnibus Changeset was the most radical change ever to be foisted upon Bitcoin, from every discernable dimension. It changed the protocol radically, it changed the supported use cases radically, it changed the economics radically,

Whether those were "radical" changes or NOT, I give two ratt's asses about it.  

So what you are really saying above is that you are satisfied with core's decidedly NON-conservative approach. I can take that at face value, but is it any wonder that I reply to your counterfactual statements?

That's not what I am saying.  I already said what I am saying, and your summary of what I supposedly said was not it.       

And, when it comes to "counterfactual statements", you seem to be very good at that yourself... seemingly deliberately so.

[HairyMaclairy]

'Tis possible. My money says you'll be proven wrong. Either way, WTF does that have to do with any ongoing discussion here?

Your incessant big blocker rambling.  You don't need to 'save' Bitcoin or whinge about Segwit.  You already have your own coin which is being tested in the open market, with clear results.  

[cAPSLOCK]

I think he’s very likely to be a paid shill.

You can consider it likely if you want. But I am not paid for my advocacy of Bitcoins in any flavor, be it SV, BCH, or BTC. Meantime, half of y'all are whoring out your reputations to shill some crap product in y'all's sigs. Imagine the irony.

I would never expect you to be a shill, I think they have you and most of the BCH community wrong. I just think you are all very ideological and wanting Bitcoin to be a digital cash and see no use of anything not directly on the blockchain. No second layer no whatnot,

I don't have any issue with second layer innovation, per se. What galls me is that Blockstream and the rest of Core deliberately crippled Layer 1 in order to accomplish their layer 2 'innovation'. Which, for all intents and purposes, still sucks two years down the line.

This is said again and again, and still I do not see how bitcoin is crippled.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Jbear

The market has spoken.  

BSV is a classic shitcoin descending towards zero which will never regain its previous heights.  Some other shiny new shitcoin will come along and replace it as the "next Bitcoin". It has had its run.

Appeal to authority and generally irrelevant.

What the market has decided upon doesn't change the facts.

[StartupAnalyst]

I sent out this leaflet to my friends (to whom I hadn't told them about the Bitcoin yet).

Not bad marketing!  And how many of them answered you?

Five of them, but only one of them asked me to help him figure it out.  

[smartcomet]

https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1114146817711775744

I'm as bullish on crypto as anyone in the long run, but remember:

The market has a tendency of moving in a way that inflicts maximum pain on the greatest number of people.

[Elwar]

https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1114146817711775744

I'm as bullish on crypto as anyone in the long run, but remember:

The market has a tendency of moving in a way that inflicts maximum pain on the greatest number of people.

A lot of people still use fiat.

They're in for a big surprise.

[Biodom]

Exactly...and that was the best response to his verbiage as well (on twitter).
That said, it is possible that we would re-do the "summer of 2015" theme, which it would be up to $4800-5000, down to $3750, all within a month or two.
Then, up we go, by the exponent.
Impossible?

I still like to compare our recent flat with late 2012-early 2013. Check it out.
Nothing, then a hockey stick. It might happen here as well.
If it does, we might form a local peak at 35-40K as early as in 3-4 months (from the start of the exponential move), or in 5-6 mo if it is a bit stretched out.

[HairyMaclairy]

Jbear

The market has spoken.  

BSV is a classic shitcoin descending towards zero which will never regain its previous heights.  Some other shiny new shitcoin will come along and replace it as the "next Bitcoin". It has had its run.

Appeal to authority and generally irrelevant.

What the market has decided upon doesn't change the facts.

I don't think we disagree.  The market has decided (fact) that BSV has 1.7% the value of Bitcoin. 

[kurious]

Late, long thoughts - on the 'are we going faster?' subject:

Now, I am not a TA guy, more of an economics nerd with an interest in history and behavioural economics.  But I am trying to glean something useful from Bitcoin's unique patterns - and while I am not a chart demon, I have spent a few years watching lines and charts here.

Firstly: Why earlier this year I became convinced about the bottom being in.

I was watching for the January low, which is when (apart from the last two 'ATH in December' years) we seemed to always seem the annual low for most years - usually around the end of the second week of Jan.

One thing I was also watching was the (unfashionable) 3 Day chart (200/50MA)
 
Here is late late 2014 to Jan 2015 chart:


Note the MAs 'death cross' and the immediate freefall to the absolute low.  About 9 of the 3day candles after the cross.

Then here is the same period now:


Note the same freefall right after the MA death cross - in a similar time frame - to what I now think is the absolute cycle low (again).

At first I waited for January, expecting the 'real' low might still be in January.  Then, when it wasn't lower than 3122, I sought out the 3Day charts and the pattern seemed to make it pretty obvious the bottom was definitely December.  The main thing that is noticeable if we are looking at the fractal nature of this is that the 2018 death cross was earlier (in November) not in December as per 2014.

Secondly: Since then, I have tried plotting ratios for daily price patterns to match historical data (price 'now' vs 2015) starting at comparing from the start point of the two crossover points (in spreadsheets) and then running again comparing from the two January low points etc... but it still didn't really crunch to explain this last push up to over 5K - as Hairy just posted here too. One outlier spike? Perhaps - but I seriously doubt it.

However, this divergence does not mean there is no worth in continuing to measure over time and watching things like how long it is until the MAs cross in the opposite direction back up again (etc.)  It was 13 months after the 2014 cross until it pushed up through it again (but that is too long to wait for!)

The 3-day death cross was early.  The 5K seems not-to-pattern, too - but I think it is also 'too early to say' and 2015 was a volatile year (as this one is starting to look like it might become).

So what's this long post for?

I am throwing this up for Hairy, Toxic, fillippone and all - just in case it helps in the debate and helps in finding as many key points as possible to watch. Things to watch and check if the fractal is matching, going at the same pace, or not.  The actual price obviously cannot possibly fit exactly - but there has been a pattern and it's been too close to ignore.  A 4-year cycle, an 85% drop from the high, highs in December... we have all spotted it.  But what will tell us more; or bring up further thoughts that might lend an edge to guessing what's coming?

That so many have noted a pattern and want to track it means (as I said in my last long post) it is likely it will be front run and therefore the pattern will break...  Perhaps only in terms of its velocity, perhaps in totally breaking it - but there are numbers, markers, and time points along the way - so it must be possible to at least see how close it's running to pattern, or if it's diverging predictably, or just veering off.

Thoughts welcome on other things it would be good to factor in.  One thing that is obvious is that the traditional 'big gun' TA gurus have been pretty useless in predicting the hike we just had - so some thinking out of the box is surely warranted. They seem to be a tad behind accepting the kind of thinking in here thus far - and only just catching up.  It's only now that a few of them are saying cautiously 'the bottom is in', when there was surely at least a case for saying it by the end of January.

In here it's been more optimistic - I think rightly so, too.  Of course in 2015, no one was expecting another bubble as spectacular as 2017.  Now everyone assumes we 'will' have a even bigger bubble again... as sure as eggs are eggs - and are just arguing about 'when'. I do think we will have one more huge bull run, but how will it play out?  

Well, it will maybe rhyme - but it cannot be quite the same.  And that's... as sure as honey badger not giving a shit.

DYOR: This is speculation and as always can be dead wrong, but what the hell - ain't no walls to observe any more...

[Toxic2040]

Not far off from what Luc was saying here...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/

+1 WOsMerit

I look at what other people are doing once in awhile and access what I can learn and improve upon but generally just do my own thing. That being said..some charts are more accurate than others.


   ...one final question..you were looking at someone elses charts??


--------

I'm crawling in the hodlcave. Goodnight wall observers. xoxo

O'Queen. Of course the nice little puppy dogs would never ever hurt the big fluffy bunnies. ni-night.   

----------

So an interesting situation developing here.  So far since the 2017 peak, we have stuck faithfully to the 2014/15 fractal.  If we were to go up from here, it would suggest we were breaking up away from the fractal, at least temporarily.  Nothing to get too excited about, but worth watching.  We are certainly a bit ahead of schedule at the moment, which is consistent with traders attempting to front run the 2014/15 model. 



I have been wondering how to explain the price capping out at $5,300 and think I have my answer.  The price has run up to the 300 Day MA and is now sitting nicely in the middle of a channel between the 300 Day MA and the 200 Day MA.

jeez Hairy..that one chart..like raining meteorites down on us. buzz kill. now we have to worry about the 250sma...ffs

How does this play with your fractals theory Hairy? Are the markets being front run as savy investors gear up for the next mania phase? Genuinely interested in your thoughts or anyone elses on the matter.


--------

It seem fairly certain we will test the 0.236 fib in the near future as market dynamics and bitcoins halvening cycle come to terms with each other. So that begs the question..with the assumed value lets say $8k to $10k after next years halving, will the market move to continue capturing this overhead liquidity? If so then the 0.382 fib is not that far off...and from there a skip to the 0.5 and the psychological barrier of $10k
The 0.618 appears to be a likely support base to solidify before heading upwards towards further gainz. #dyor

To finish and take this crude model further..if the apparent market price of three to five thousands dollars holds true for this years valuation and we extrapolate a doubling in that price every four years to take into account for the halvenings..hmmmm..maybe some numbers to work with...I dunno. After 2020 10k+  after 2024 20k+  after 2028 40k+ median price of course..with spike out way to either side. You get the idea.
You have to start putting numbers and ideas out there right?
So we will see which way the dice falls and continue preparations for the $100k party in the late 2020s...maybe 2030?
We shall see.

D


W

#stronghands

[HairyMaclairy]

I am throwing this up for Hairy, Toxic, fillippone and all - just in case it helps in the debate and helps in finding as many key points as possible to watch. Things to watch and check if the fractal is matching, going at the same pace, or not.  The actual price obviously cannot possibly fit exactly - but there has been a pattern and it's been too close to ignore.  A 4-year cycle, an 85% drop from the high, highs in December... we have all spotted it.  But what will tell us more; or bring up further thoughts that might lend an edge to guessing what's coming?

That so many have noted a pattern and want to track it means (as I said in my last long post) it is likely it will be front run and therefore the pattern will break...  Perhaps only in terms of its velocity, perhaps in totally breaking it - but there are numbers, markers, and time points along the way - so it must be possible to at least see how close it's running to pattern, or if it's diverging predictably, or just veering off.

Agreed.  

How does this play with your fractals theory Hairy? Are the markets being front run as savy investors gear up for the next mania phase? Genuinely interested in your thoughts or anyone elses on the matter.

Yes I think the fractal is being front run by a couple of months by traders trying to get an edge.  But they are probably being too greedy right now and have gotten ahead of themselves.  

If we break the fractal and break upwards, I am developing a theory that 2019/2020 will see a rerun of the 2013 double peak.  The 2015 fractal is conclusively front run and broken upwards, and then we coming screaming back down and Bitcoin is pronounced dead.  And then after Bitcoin is officially dead, we bounce parabolically upwards.  Please note, this secondary model is dependent on a massive price surge in 2019.  If we do not see a surge to $10k or above, then much less likely to eventuate.  

The chart below shows what I consider to be the more likely outcome, which is a reversion to the 2015 fractal.

[Biodom]

If we break the fractal and break upwards, I am developing a theory that 2019/2020 will see a rerun of the 2013 double peak.  The 2015 fractal is conclusively front run and broken upwards, and then we coming screaming back down and Bitcoin is pronounced dead.  And then after Bitcoin is officially dead, we bounce parabolically upwards.  

Yes, that's pretty much what I envison as well, see a couple of posts above.
If so, and played right, there would be a potential to make a LOT of dough, first on the upside, then either sell or short (for super-risk takers), then re-load for the ultimate adventure.
2013 did almost a 100x in a year or slightly less.
The rough equivalent would be to go to 35-45K on the first peak, "crash" down to 7-9K, then up again to 160-200K.
Numbers are very approximate, and could be 50% of what is indicated.

[HairyMaclairy]

^

I still like to compare our recent flat with late 2012-early 2013. Check it out.
Nothing, then a hockey stick. It might happen here as well.
If it does, we might form a local peak at 35-40K as early as in 3-4 months (from the start of the exponential move), or in 5-6 mo if it is a bit stretched out.

Hmmm interesting.  Would need to chart that.  

jeez Hairy..that one chart..like raining meteorites down on us. buzz kill. now we have to worry about the 250sma...ffs

In the immortal words of Sheryl Crow:

No one said it would be easy
No one said it'd be this hard
No one said it would be easy
No one thought we'd come this far

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Jbear

The market has spoken.  

BSV is a classic shitcoin descending towards zero which will never regain its previous heights.  Some other shiny new shitcoin will come along and replace it as the "next Bitcoin". It has had its run.

Appeal to authority and generally irrelevant.

What the market has decided upon doesn't change the facts.

I don't think we disagree.  The market has decided (fact) that BSV has 1.7% the value of Bitcoin. 

The way you worded your post makes it seems as if you were implying that the market not buying a coin makes it technologically inferior. By that reasoning chart music would be the greatest musical accomplishment in all of human history and Amazon would be one of the greatest failures in the world of business.

[bitserve]

The thing is that if any new coin just by being "technologically superior" (not the case of BSVlol) would *easily* replace Bitcoin then crypto (all of it) as a store of value would be RIP.

[kurious]

I am throwing this up for Hairy, Toxic, fillippone and all - just in case it helps in the debate and helps in finding as many key points as possible to watch. Things to watch and check if the fractal is matching, going at the same pace, or not.  The actual price obviously cannot possibly fit exactly - but there has been a pattern and it's been too close to ignore.  A 4-year cycle, an 85% drop from the high, highs in December... we have all spotted it.  But what will tell us more; or bring up further thoughts that might lend an edge to guessing what's coming?

That so many have noted a pattern and want to track it means (as I said in my last long post) it is likely it will be front run and therefore the pattern will break...  Perhaps only in terms of its velocity, perhaps in totally breaking it - but there are numbers, markers, and time points along the way - so it must be possible to at least see how close it's running to pattern, or if it's diverging predictably, or just veering off.

Agreed.  

How does this play with your fractals theory Hairy? Are the markets being front run as savy investors gear up for the next mania phase? Genuinely interested in your thoughts or anyone elses on the matter.

Yes I think the fractal is being front run by a couple of months by traders trying to get an edge.  But they are probably being too greedy right now and have gotten ahead of themselves.  

If we break the fractal and break upwards, I am developing a theory that 2019/2020 will see a rerun of the 2013 double peak.  The 2015 fractal is conclusively front run and broken upwards, and then we coming screaming back down and Bitcoin is pronounced dead.  And then after Bitcoin is officially dead, we bounce parabolically upwards.  

Please note, this model is dependent on a massive price surge in 2019.  If we do not see a surge to $10k or above, then much less likely to eventuate.  

The chart below shows what I consider to be the more likely outcome, which is a reversion to the 2015 fractal.

Yep - front running creating a false start is actually even 'likely' (given expectations).

An early rush going over 10k by autumn this year, lots of froth and fomo starting and then a pull back before EOY, just as the 'here we go' was kicking in.  

Then two runs makes sense, too

A fake run that fizzles before 'Moon' and baffles everyone.  Then a 'real run' becomes possible (and organic) after a few month's breather.  I can see that as a very plausible scenario.