BitStamp Price History obtained from http://api.bitcoincharts.com/v1/csv/Google Trends data obtained from trends.google.com Donations appreciated: 1CJJXipY18D9F8aFQ8cDiXMRLgvbipBeTW Care to present this on a log chart?
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Bad precedent to allow this sort of thing just because "this is Bitcoin." It harms Bitcoin's image. Fiduciary responsibility for Bitcoin should be treated just as seriously as fiduciary responsibility for U.S. dollars.
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Those entrusted with fiduciary responsibility have greater expectations of professionalism than anonymous internet forum posters. The childish behavior of those who operate (own?) Bifinex, including the colorful language referring to a customer and the public disclosure of his account balance without permission, are very troubling. Nothing Mat has done, or could ever do, would make these actions acceptable.
Bitfinex has a choice at this point. They can either issue a formal apology and somehow make amends to Mat for the breach of fiduciary responsibility, or they can choose not to do so and lose all credibility. Account balance disclosure is a serious breach of fiduciary responsibility; one that usually comes with legal ramifications. Additionally, the one breach you see may point to countless others you do not. Bitfinex should act now to restore confidence.
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In all honesty I wouldn't mind seeing some cheap coins one more time
I'll sell you as many coins as you want for $0.25 each. Let me know how many dimes you want.
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Another developing state, that the US would very much like a piece of, bans Bitcoin http://www.cityam.com/1403264481/bitcoin-banned-bolivian-central-bank-threat-national-currencyRussia, China, Thailand, India, and no doubt many more to come. They all know that Bitcoin was/is a pilot developed by NSA to wage financial warfare on other countries' economies. They can smell the US sanctions and/or other economic pressures and the capital flight via Bitcoin a mile off. A liquid Bitcoin market in a country also makes it very easy for powerful entities to get funds into that economy in order to sponsor 'destabilisers' of that economy/political system to do their deeds. What we (including myself) all once thought was anarchic internet money of freedom, is actually The Man up to his same old tricks. What is your current Bitcoin position? Long, Short, or Flat?
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Now I see. Trying to get market participants drunk so they fill with irrational exuberance. By all means, continue!
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Which is following which? Higher prices = more attention = more addresses used?
It depends on where you look in the graph. Sometimes prices leads adoption. Sometimes adoption leads price. In the center of the graph you can clearly see adoption heading up without price. Eventually price follows up and rejoins adoption. So there can be periods of divergence due to speculation. But historically they always converge again.
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Regarding the poll, define "current". Current at what time/date?
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Everyone hope on his own, i hope the buyer of these coins will be smart enough to hold You'd have to be really stupid not to hold for at least a year for lower capital gains taxes.
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I have updated the graph with the latest data. We continue to have higher lows on the Metcalfe data. I have also added a zoomed chart to the first post. We can clearly see we're working ourselves into a tighter and tighter range on adoption. We should see a large price move upward when we break above the Metcalfe high of June 1st.
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Well, it seems that the list is not quite the list of bidders. USMS clarification, quoted in the CoinDesk article: One of the emails that we sent out this morning inadvertently showed a list of some of the individuals who have asked a question or questions about the pending bitcoin auction. And, besides, the article says the original intent of the email was to inform interested parties about an updated FAQ related to the bitcoin auction. So the list of bidders may not include any of those people, and may include any number of other people. If it's a list of all those who sent emails for further information then why am I not on this list? Granted I'd be upset to be publicly outed. But I'm not there. So I call shenanigans. Damage control. These are would-be bidders.
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The rate of adoption is still increasing at an average linear rate over the past 2 years. Price is still correlating with Metcalfe's value of number of unique addresses used per day, squared. Thus, price can be expected to continue to increase at an exponential rate. When the correlation with Metcalfe's value stops, or when adoption stops its linear increase, then you can expect price to stop increasing at an exponential rate.
Given the fact we expect adoption to move from linear to exponential as we near the center of the S curve, I only see Bitcoin price growth accelerating further from this point. When we hit the center of the S curve, then we'll begin slowing down.
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N(y) = y^2, where N is the number of addresses and y the year number. N increases exponentially as time marches on in a linear fashion. As we approach the center of the S curve, adoption will begin increasing at an exponential rate. The Metcalfe value is this exponential rate, squared. So, to approximate, N(y) = (y^2)^2, where N is the number of addresses and y the year number. This is simplified to N(y) = y^4. N increases much faster here. OK. I think I get the root of our misunderstanding. You seem to think that y^2 or y^4 is an exponent. It is not. If you don't trust me, ask somebody whom you trust. I will stop you here. What you describe is not an S curve. This is an S curve: rogerwilco already posted reference to the the S-curve aka logistic function: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function. In particular, this article says: " the logistic curve shows early exponential growth for negative argument, which slows to linear growth of slope 1/4 for an argument near zero, then approaches one with an exponentially decaying gap.". Which means exactly what I've said: exponential curve that slows down to horizontal line. Again, sorry for bothering you with calculus 101. I think you are just playing at definitions and missing the larger point. As rate of adoption increases beyond linear, rate of price appreciation will increase beyond the current exponential. Until we pass the 50% point on the S curve, the rate of price appreciation should therefore accelerate, not diminish.
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I've been analyzing further. When we hit the vertical stage of the adoption S curve, rate of adoption will go exponential. Metcalfe will go super-exponential at that point, along with price.
Funny how human psychology makes most humans buy when the price is rising , but no one dares buying when the price is low after a bubble. Even when it's pretty obvious a new bubble will come. I mean right now we are sitting on 600s but people will only really start buying once we past 1000 or so. And then once we peaked at about 5000 or so, people will stop buying until we are once again past the previous ATH rather than just buying during the downtrend. Without buyers near the top, we'd have no one to sell to. I plan to keep no more than 90% of my liquid wealth in Bitcoin. I will need to sell at regular price intervals to keep that ratio.
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That's why I'm surprised. On the chart we can see a curve that fluctuates around a straight line. Correct? The vertical scale is log. Correct? Therefore the straight line is an exponential line. Because no other line can be straight in the log scale. Correct? Therefore rate of adoption (squared) fluctuates around an exponential rate. Correct? Exponential line squared is still an exponential line. Correct? Therefore rate of adoption grows at an exponential rate. Correct?
Right now adoption is increasing at a linear rate. This means we gain more users at some average constant rate of new addresses per day. The Metcalfe value is this value squared. So, to approximate, N(y) = y^2, where N is the number of addresses and y the year number. N increases exponentially as time marches on in a linear fashion. As we approach the center of the S curve, adoption will begin increasing at an exponential rate. The Metcalfe value is this exponential rate, squared. So, to approximate, N(y) = (y^2)^2, where N is the number of addresses and y the year number. This is simplified to N(y) = y^4. N increases much faster here. Now the S-curve. It is basically an exponential curve that at it's last third slows down to horizontal line. Until that stage it's rate of growth is constant.
I will stop you here. What you describe is not an S curve. This is an S curve:
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I've been analyzing further. When we hit the vertical stage of the adoption S curve, rate of adoption will go exponential. Metcalfe will go super-exponential at that point, along with price.
It's an illusion. S curve has no vertical stage, just like an exponential curve doesn't have it. The rate of adoption is already (and had always been) exponential, that's why it looks like straight line on the log-scale chart. No. The rate of adoption is currently linear. The Metcalfe value is exponential. That is the number of unique addresses used per day, squared. Vertical is an expression. The middle of an S curve looks nearly vertical. Look at left side of the OP chart: it is in log scale. Curve that looks linear in log scale is exponential. I *am* the OP. The Metcalfe value displayed on the chart is the rate of adoption, *squared*. That is the definition of the value from Metcalfe's Law.
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I've been analyzing further. When we hit the vertical stage of the adoption S curve, rate of adoption will go exponential. Metcalfe will go super-exponential at that point, along with price.
It's an illusion. S curve has no vertical stage, just like an exponential curve doesn't have it. The rate of adoption is already (and had always been) exponential, that's why it looks like straight line on the log-scale chart. No. The rate of adoption is currently linear. The Metcalfe value is exponential. That is the number of unique addresses used per day, squared. Vertical is an expression. The middle of an S curve looks nearly vertical.
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No one knows if a bubble is coming this year. it will be late Lol. Two conflicting statements, both intended to piss off holders. Troll.
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