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Normally, I'd agree, since people tend to seriously discount the psychological power of familiar, even numbers, like $100. But there are far more powerful market forces at work, in both directions. I think we've got some serious tugging yet to happen, in both directions, before things settle down again. A few days, at a minimum.
Then, provided its mainstream image can emerge untarnished enough, hopefully a slow, steady upward march can resume.
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A week ago, and even a day ago, I still didn't see it falling below the $30s. When I saw this posted earlier today: https://i.imgur.com/fZwy3xd.pngI completely reversed my position, starting around 114, on the way down to about 94. Personally, I'd just as soon get it out of the way, so that a more sane, sustainable rally can resume. |
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Creative - yes, that is what I was referring to.
In my view, these are just the natural growing pains of moving out of bleeding edge territory on the adoption curve. We grew too fast, people got hurt. But traders will naturally migrate to other exchanges (and more exchanges will spring up) as a result of the pain. So in the long run, the community will be more robust, and we'll further reduce the perceived single-point-of-failure issue.
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Honestly, I had been on the fence about whether the next leg was up or down, as we seemed to be terminating the symmetric wedge. When I saw this image comparing the last big crash to the chart picture right now... https://i.imgur.com/fZwy3xd.pngThis, paired with the uncertainty, and I moved to a 50/50 position. Then the lag spike hit. We'll see in a few minutes...but I think we're far more likely than not to have another downturn, from here ($109). |
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If I were analyzing this data, the next step I'd probably make is to perform the same analysis, but after having first separated your input data into two camps, based on the larger, encompassing trend.
For example
Bucket 1 - 24h Avg is Bullish
Hour Total Max Gain Max Loss
0
1
2
Bucket 2 - 24h Avg is Bearish
Hour Total Max Gain Max Loss
0
1
2
Then, if you saw any significant variance for certain hours from one camp to the hour, you may have discovered a signal. (i.e. it is more notable to see an average gain in the short term, amidst a general downtrend, than it is to see a gain within a general uptrend.)
Another way I'd probably want to split the data - the exact same analyses as below, but additionally displaying the averages amongst gains only, and the average amongst losses only. (i.e. downturns in hour 1 tend to have 6x the magnitude of upturns in hour 1)
I'll be interested to see how this turns out!
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Thanks again BitSmile. I took my best guess, but am still new to bitcointalk.
Do I do anything fancy to request movement by a mod, or is a request such as this one sufficient?
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Well, it blew through $200 without batting an eye.
Nn ch nn ch nn ch nn ch BITCOIINNNNNNNNN!
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Thanks, BitSmile. I'll pass along your compliment to the artist.
FWIW, I agree with you. An instrumental can loop at work, or any other time. A great way to throw the flag to fellow Bitcoiners :-)
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Wow - this didn't go quite as I had planned. I can understand the healthy skepticism, and I guess I'll have to earn my stripes around here before making such an offer.
My initial interest in bitcoin was as an investment medium. So I've lurked here for awhile, but never had a reason to sign up. A friend of mine recently made a "Bitcoin Rally Song". In order to share it with the bitcoin community, I signed up.
To be clear - I wasn't asking for any payment, I don't want any account information, nor do I want to personally be managing any funds.
I'm not a professional in the field - I write software. It just happens that I've traded for 15 years, and have been on the receiving end of wealth management advice. So maybe I have an idea or three that would help someone who, like me, now has an account whose size makes them uncomfortable...and maybe they've never even heard of a concept like dollar-cost averaging.
All I was offering was to be a sounding board to anyone looking for some broad-level strategizing. I imagine there are some people out there hemming and hawing about some pretty impactful decisions, and maybe they don't have someone to bounce some ideas off of.
I get the skepticism. I'll chalk it up to poor wording on my part, alongside a poor introductory step. Regardless, I look forward to getting to know the rest of you around here over the coming months.
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Got it playing on loop now. We cracked $150. How high will she go on this upleg?
Well, that depends. On how long we let the Rally Song play!!!
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TheKozi - you've reminded me - this is the absolute perfect time to be playing the Bitcoin Rally Song on loop :-) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=168163.0(Usually accompanied by an inner monologue of nn chh nn ch nn ch nn ch BITCOIINNNN!!!!! |
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One other thing that might be helpful to include in your original message - if there are any deadlines/time constraints you'll need to be making decisions by.
(Again, this will help in triaging/assigning order to try to make sure everyone gets help before it is too late for it to be of help to them.)
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I've been a Bitcoin evangelist and student since the $5 mark. I know the feeling of watching an account you are comfortable managing grow into something that can start causing you to lose sleep.
Suddenly, you realize the buy, sell, or hold decisions you are making will substantially affect your livelihood for years down the road. But there's not much in the way of alternatives - the market is gonna keep moving. And indecision is still a decision - the worst one!
Some wealth management principles can help here. They'll help you make your short term decisions within the framework of your long term goals. If you're new to it, figuring out this framework can take years. Years that we, the 'groundfloor Bitcoiners', don't have.
I have the best interest of two awesome groups in mind here:
1) Those early investors, whose shoulders we get to stand on today.
2) The successful future of the Bitcoin currency as a whole.
I'm not sure if there will be any interest in this or not. If you are interested, please use the messaging feature to let me know. Let me know whichever of the following details you care to fill in:
Name
# of bitcoins
% gain to date, from initial buy-in
Current View (buy/sell/hold/undecided)
Long term goal - # of bitcoins
Long term goal - total $
Any other notes
Skype contact (or less preferably, email)
I'll be doing this in my somewhat limited free time. In the event interest outweighs my available time, I'll use the bitcoin balance, plus whatever other notes, as a means to prioritize/rank. For example, if one of you 10,000+ bitcoin holders are looking for a sounding board, or some guidance...those decisions could dramatically affect not just you, but the Bitcoin community as a whole.
When we connect, I'll let you share whatever relevant financial planning/goal information you care to. Then, we'll talk about some options, and come up with a long term plan together. With that in place, we'll look at your current bitcoin position, and come up with a plan for any buys or sells you may want to put in place.
Yes, this is really free. Yes, I will accept donations (bitcoin only!). I'm very grateful that Bitcoin has started "giving back". It's time to pay it forward. Do remember to request this via the messaging system, and not in replies.
Full disclosure - I am a bitcoin holder (duh), with an evolving but very bullish sentiment at the moment.
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I'm thinking that as we near $150, the ask side is suddenly going to fatten up, between the current price and $150. Probably a day's worth of asks to grind through til the resistance is decimated. Then once it clears it, I think we quickly ascend.
So - $145-$149 today
Tomorrow - crack $150, close out the day in the $160-170 range.
That's my guess, anyhow.
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The trading actions I'll be taking in the near future: -12 ounce curls, using my favorite beer, paid for fully by recent bitcoin rally. -music appreciation, in the form of the Bitcoin Rally Song ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=168163.0.) The one I will most certainly NOT be taking: -pressing the Sell button. IMHO, with the euro crisis going on, the current 1.5 billion market cap of bitcoin is going to look laughably small, very soon. |
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The first time I played it was the night bitcoin was around 110, and I woke up to it in the 140s. I am now forever and hopelessly superstitious.
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For Use in the Event of Bitcoin Rally http://orymh.bandcamp.com/track/the-bitcoin-rally-songA friend and I got in around $5. You know those times the price just keeps going up? It's exciting, you want to talk about it, but there's not really anything to say? Enter - the Bitcoin Rally Song. It's hosted on bandcamp, so you can pay whatever you like. Really, he's more interested in contributing something back to an awesome community. If you dig it, you can pay whatever you like for the song, using bandcamp's system. Or, by a donation to the artist's wallet: 1AYstep1b3GRRCTjSUViwCneH9AZ2u6TCM But far more important than that...if you enjoy the song, share it - we need a rally song! I've talked the creator into joining bitcointalk. Once he's cleared newbie status, I expect he'll have a few more things to say about it. Until then...enjoy! EDIT: First poll results. April 09 2013 - May 1 2015 Whenever I play the Bitcoin Rally Song, the price goes up. - 60 (36.6%) goes down. - 24 (14.6%) stays put. - 18 (11%) starts a new rally. - 18 (11%) kills an already-in-progress rally. - 44 (26.8%) If memory serves, up to this point the Rally correctly predicted 3 of 5 rallies, with its two failures being the 3rd and 5th calls. |
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I've been blind on price for about an hour. We are still around 141, yes?
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