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681  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin: The Quants Dream. on: September 19, 2011, 02:00:38 PM
I believe I have pointed out a very important fact:

The anonymous nature of Bitcoin 


Can you hook me up with your dealer? Whatever you are smoking, it's totally awesome.




Best option would be a bot that manages the salesmen's accounts adjusting their prices and trading their coins in accordance with market behavior and "risk settings" the salesmen set when creating their accounts with bot service (so that bot can play "riskier" with the account holders that are willing to allow somebody's bot to carry out more risky, but potentially more lucrative, operations with their accounts)

I wonder how hard would such rent-a-bot service be to create.

What a novel idea! Surely nobody in history has ever been smart enough to think up such a scheme?

LOL. What a complete financial ignoramus you are.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

By the way - it crashed (in 1998).

Given massive difference in complexities, function and markets involved, inadequate analogy is inadequate.

LOL, what a bad troll you are.

Incidentally, could someone remind me if trolling is against forum rules ?  Grin
682  Economy / Economics / Re: Naked Short Selling Bitcoin on: September 19, 2011, 12:00:55 PM

I can agree to your opinion only on the condition that you really trust the publicly visible portion of the bitcoin community. From where I sit, I see the underbelly of bitcoin, and the picture I see isn't pretty at all.

Um, could you kindly hook me up with any of the kingpins of said underbelly ^__~ ?
You and many other people make an assumption that Tom Williams ran unmodified Satoshi bitcoin client. Or if not unmodified at least competently modified. Since his servers were FreeBSD, he had to at least recompile, or more likely hire somebody to recompile and integrate it for him.

From my brief experience I envision the following events: (1) somebody offers him "bitcoind Enterprise Edition", (2) he buys it, (3) "bitcoind EE" is diverging from the "official bitcoind". Then there are two variants:

(4a) from the start there was a remote exploit and the subcontractor bid low assuming that he'll do a "remote self-help" later
(4b) there was a dispute between him and the subcontractor about the scope of work. Subcontractor later on used "remote self-help" as a form of collecting its overdue fees by exploiting some old vulnerability that Tom Williams refused to pay to patch.

Obviously it is possible that the above isn't the true story of MyBitcoin. But from my experience this is or will be the story that will unfold later about some other Bitcoin deployment.

Such scenarios are not specific to bitcoins.

Such scenarios could take place with any kind of system where an agent hires the lowest bidder as subcontractor and fails to carry out due diligence.

If you hire "dude from Sandcraterstania who looks tooootaaallllyyyy leeegiiiit" to code a system intended to manage thousands upon thousands of dollars and pay him a penny, you have it coming.

Whether you deal in exotic products of arcane mathematications or more traditional subjects of trade is at that point irrelevant.
683  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin: The Quants Dream. on: September 19, 2011, 11:48:43 AM
I have a keen interest in bitcoins but remain skeptical of the immense value people attribute to them and the real world usefulness of bitcoins, but even I don't agree with some of the points the OP has written.

I do agree that bitcoins are a trader's dream.  The trade and value can be manipulated at will.  The market is apparently free of the usual laws regarding trading as no government takes bitcoins seriously.  This is both a positive and a negative.  There's nothing stopping well executed fraud.  Just try explaining to your local police department that someone took your bitcoins and see how far that gets you.

We are seeing a race between bots on MtGox.  While the frequent volatility excites traders and allows easy profits to be picked off by the savvy, it makes bitcoins completely unsuitable for serious trade.  Imagine a merchant changing their price by 10% almost every day.

Single point of failure?  Sure.  It's MtGox.  By volume it's ten times larger than the next larger exchange.  Hack or close down MtGox and converting bitcoins to currencies becomes very difficult.  MtGox is in a position to be the market maker.  While it was dead in June some other exchanges closed down as there were no price signals available.  Could other exchanges open or take over?  Sure.  But again you're back to one or a few points of failure.  Does closing down exchanges close down bitcoin?  Of course not.  But it makes bitcoins simply not very useful.

Will bitcoin be dead in 3 months?  I have a hard time believing that.

Rewriting trader prices automatically is simple.

Now, if you keep the bitcoins you receive for goods and services instead of converting them to something else instantly, a price drop would screw you over. Yes, your prices will adjust in less than a second. The bitcoins in your wallet won't.

Auto-selling the coins you receive at best possible price is also doable, but then a price rise will make you very, very sore (despite the fact that from strictly pragmatic point of view, you get exactly as much USD for your goods and services as you wanted)

Best option would be a bot that manages the salesmen's accounts adjusting their prices and trading their coins in accordance with market behavior and "risk settings" the salesmen set when creating their accounts with bot service (so that bot can play "riskier" with the account holders that are willing to allow somebody's bot to carry out more risky, but potentially more lucrative, operations with their accounts)

I wonder how hard would such rent-a-bot service be to create.
684  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin: The Quants Dream. on: September 19, 2011, 11:15:58 AM
@ Gabi

Well, that is  definitely a very plausible proposal Smiley
685  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin: The Quants Dream. on: September 19, 2011, 10:17:26 AM
1)
Quick google search suggests that "pogs" indeed have value, that can be trivially expressed in U.S. Dollars.

Another quick search suggests that even   weirder things, such as age-riddled postage stamps, do have value (and fairly exuberant one at that)

2)
The fact that OP later tries to make an argument regarding "deflationary" economics suggests that the OP has some pretty weird assumptions about the nature and eventual extent of "bitcoin economy" and generally does not seem to realize that something that is essentially infinitely divisible can not operate in a manner entirely similar to "usual"  deflationary currencies (which were quite limited in their division ability), which is what makes this experiment in quasi-deflationary system interesting (also, in my humble opinion, considering bitcoin to be a currency is somewhat inaccurate).

Conclusion:
OP has presented no novel arguments and has fairly bizarre assumptions both as to "target" extent of "bitcoin economy" and value in general. OP has presented a fallacious argument that extends the behavior of typical "deflationary" currencies to something that, by its nature, can be neither really "deflationary" nor really "inflationary". OP also apparently believes that Bitcoin transactions are, by their default state, anonymous, which is simply factually incorrect (OP can educate himself using Block Explorer, which can be found via powers of Google).

OP's motives for posting his "warning" on this particular forum are completely indecipherable to me (I am, of course, operating under assumption that OP is sincere in his claims)

OP is thus best ignored.

Thank you, and have a nice and very safe day.

Goodbye.
686  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: inquiry about a spherical pool in vacuum - how many "bicoin nodes" does it need on: September 19, 2011, 08:52:00 AM
are we seriously more paranoid an environment than torrenter / KAD crowd ?

Some of us, yes.  Bear in mind, we are dealing with real value here; the value of intellectual property is theoretical and not relevant to the torrentors themselves.

It seems to me that what matters  for a security model is not whether the "legitimate" participants ascribe value to their activities (all value being a matter of perception, in my very humble opinion), it's whether their opponents do, and given the existence of (technologically  sophisticated) agents interested disrupting filesharing networks, one would say that the analogy between torrent trackers and pools is not entirely off-base due to apparent existence of (relatively) technologically sophisticated  opponents who would find disrupting the respective services   to be a source of benefit (financial or otherwise)

Anyways, I find the fact that an apparently notable (though sadly unquantified) number of pool-ops are running on outgoing-only is verily interesting and worth keeping in mind.

687  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ARE YOU MINING GG? on: September 18, 2011, 08:28:06 PM
you should be getting an occasional block every now and then (just don't forget to set s to 1 and Q to zero, and turn off longpolling, and everything should be fine with CGminer)
688  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANNOUNCE] New alternate cryptocurrency - Geist Geld on: September 18, 2011, 08:25:35 PM
looks perfectly fine to me
689  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: inquiry about a spherical pool in vacuum - how many "bicoin nodes" does it need on: September 18, 2011, 08:22:08 PM
But under that paradigm, pools, as long as they don't mod their software to increase the number of outgoing connections, are limited to 8 connections... Hm...
I don't think that any serious pool runs stock bitcoind anyway Smiley

That I   understand Smiley.

Still, the security paradigm of running on pure outgoing is kinda weird. I mean, I am aware of existence of TCP denial of service shenanigans, but for the love of everything good, are we seriously more paranoid an environment than torrenter / KAD crowd ?
690  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ARE YOU MINING GG? on: September 18, 2011, 08:17:06 PM
johnj how many mhashes you have, again, per guiminer ?
691  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ARE YOU MINING GG? on: September 18, 2011, 06:41:45 PM
Well, looks like poclbm still is no 1 geist miner.

I wonder why, tho.
692  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANNOUNCE] New alternate cryptocurrency - Geist Geld on: September 18, 2011, 05:24:04 PM
Yes, I tend to agree with your gut feel, will have to tweak that bit later on.

693  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ARE YOU MINING GG? on: September 18, 2011, 04:17:17 PM
manrus, which options do you pass when launching cgminer ?

I think there has been some discussion as to good cgminer options in the main GG thread.

Basically, cgminer.exe -s 1 -Q 0 --no-longpoll

 cgminer.exe -s 2 -Q 0 --no-longpoll might work slightly better or slightly worse depending on connection, diff and whatnot. Try both.

Also, it's normal for cgminer to report lotta rejects. It is just like that.
694  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ARE YOU MINING GG? on: September 18, 2011, 03:51:07 PM
Ow, dude, it will take you a long time to find a block.
695  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ARE YOU MINING GG? on: September 18, 2011, 03:44:12 PM
Looks like I am mining as the error msg at guiminer disappeared and I am connected to Port 8777, but how do I know I am mining GG?

How many kilohashes per second does guiminer report ?

I tried mining it for about a hour or two with cgminer on linux and got all rejects so I gave up.

What cgminer options did you pass ?
696  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ARE YOU MINING GG? on: September 18, 2011, 02:30:22 PM
I am trying to mine, but even with the portable version, I keep getting

No valid UPnP IGDs found

Anything I am missing out?

Type getinfo in the control tab

Post output here.

What it's saying right now is that it has not found any devices it could configure with UPnP. That can mean either that 1) there's nothing to configure and you are connected or 2) that you will have to open port 7769 manually on your system, which depends heavily on what your setup is like and whether your ISP is among assholes who provide "free firewall service"
697  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: An important message from the Solidcoin developers on: September 18, 2011, 10:23:31 AM
Actually, I intend to use the coins that I have "properly" mined over the period of time

I strongly doubt there will be so many solidcoiners coming forward that I will have to consider using Superfund to introduce them to Geist ^__^
698  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: An important message from the Solidcoin developers on: September 18, 2011, 10:18:39 AM
You mean me or the whole "announcement" ?

My offer is absolutely serious.
699  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: An important message from the Solidcoin developers on: September 18, 2011, 10:01:41 AM
I don't get it. Is this a joke? How would one exchange their old solidcoins for bitcoins? Who would buy these solidcoins that will soon become worthless?

Hot potato principle - the last man to own Ye Olde Solicoinsiz looses.

Having said that, I  do not know if anyone would by old solidcoinsiz for bitcoins, but as a gesture of good will, I will buy them for Geist Geld, at a fixed rate of 1 solidcoin for 1 Geist Cheesy
700  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: ARE YOU MINING GG? on: September 18, 2011, 08:11:26 AM
I am tring to mine but my Microsoft Essential detects it as malware Sad  Also even after ignoring it, I am not sure how to run it, anymore concise details? Smiley

MEss is like that.

It hates everything with mining code  that isn't explicitly whitelisted, it seems.

Given that you're on 'doze, I suggest you download the portable bundle, run it, then set up guiminer to target port 8777 (given that you mine locally, you can just leave default username and password, which are, well, username and password respectively)
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