Get a grip, LFC...

Just gotta say... You have broken the threshold.





Whoaza..!!!!  Who called in the whales..?    1 BTC would be beyond the budget of this here cat.

Maybe if we were talking 0.21 BTC that might be doable in some circumstances, but probably better to start with 0.021 BTC.. that seems more reasonable and realistic for us regular normies (aka non-high rollers).


That's what yours truly be talkin bout too, Willis.  


Is that any way to talk to a friend?  Invisible or otherwise?

Well.. that's a fair question.  Until today, I did not say anything further to infofront, and he did not say anything to me.... however about 5 hours before you posted the above post, infofront DMed me and asked me for a poll suggestion, and within about an hour I responded back and gave him a poll suggestion..

In udder words, the poll is in dee hands of infofront..

If anyone wants to make any suggestions, I might be able to amend my request.. I am all ears.

My current poll request is this:
 
>>>>>>>
Which price is bitcoin going to reach first?

$25,000?

or

$50,000?<<<<<<<<

Anybody got something MOAR better?

That's true... if there is ongoing drops in difficulty that persists for several months - then there could be some causes for concern.. but still not even sure whether ongoing drops until September would necessarily be a problem.. Probably would need to consider the severity of the ongoing drops and the purported reasons for the ongoing drops... it there were to be a kind of hoarding of hashpower in order to be able to "attack" the network then that would be an interesting situation, but seems that we would need to see some evidence of that actually occurring rather than proclaiming fears without actual evidence and/or in a vacuum.


Technically:

$64,895/2 = $32,447.50

Technically, speaking... but who's counting?


You suck Toxic...

Just saying.

Oh and congrats on the anticipation of an actual wedding thingie.  Don't tell anyone that I actually like you.


You guys are coming off as ill-convicted.

We need bargain boyz... they will be convicted, even if the come with duffus.

So if you want bargain boyz, you also get a duffus, too.


Sure.  It's almost the same for all intents and purposes.
What's the BIG diff?

$6k seems hardly like nuttin from this angle.. except if you were to get $24k, there might not be feelings of "enough"... so we won't know if there would be a "BIG diff" until we try out $24k, first.  Not sure if it would be a good idea to wish for that, beyond merely attempting to roll with the punches in the sense of:  "if it happens, it happens."


I imagine that you are referring to the calendar year, so I sure hopening that we will be higher this year... Stawp being so damned bullish gallianooo.  You are causing me to speculate that you might have bumped your head.... Shake it off!!!!!  Shake it off!!!!!    


I knew that you had an actual purpose in this thread... I just could not put my finger on it for a while.

I think that Jack Ma is an example of that.


Seems that they will stay poor with such a move, but gosh how long is it going to take to see the matter play out? 


There are.

That's true.

You are wrong a lot.

Nonetheless, I am confident that your being wrong is not going to stop you from spreading some knowledge.


You see.

I was correct.


Knowledge spread.

Thanks somac.


Could be.  Perhaps.


Well?  Seems that shitcoins needed some reasons for a wee bit of purgening... they have been very frothy in recent times.. so never hurts to purge some of the various vaporwares or whatever other scheme or scammening they have been engaged in disseminating through the world with their almost complete nonsense that ONLY has any value at all because they suck off the teat of king daddy (not that daddies have teats, but you know what I mean, right?). 


Hahahahaha

Of course, we would like to have a white knight savior, and I have been frequently saying that Saylor is not going to be enough.. but still we are in a bull market.. so it is surely going to be ongoingly curious to see how a lot of this plays out.


I am not sure if "we"  "need" a shake out, but such a shake out does seem to be "in progress" as I type.



Yes.  I hope that you are wrong too.. We have an agreement.

Make it so!!!!!!!


Heard it straight from the horse's mouth.. so long as you, UnDerDoG81, could reasonably be considered as a horse.

heeee haw...

 

You, The Pharmacist, have been following this thread from the start, and you have been actively participating in the thread.

You have been asking variations of the same question over and over, and surely your questions and concerns have gotten stronger and stronger with the higher doubling down that MSTR/Saylor have performed.

Seems to me that either something is not sinking in for you or you just like repeating the same question because you are disingenuous on the topic.

I am way more inclined to conclude that you engaging in the former rather than the latter, but I am still having some troubles appreciating why something is not sinking in for you.

MSTR/Saylor have been fairly clear about why they are engaged in their buying and leveraging behavior - and really, even from the start, Saylor/MSTR was not really a BTC dabbler.. He and his company went in pretty deep right from the start, and so when he has been going deeper and deeper that might seem nearly impossible to accomplish, but MSTR/Saylor has found a way that causes it to seem like compulsive gambling rather than prudent business practices.

Of course, MSTR/Saylor is going to appear to be much worse off if BTC prices go below their average buy price, which has been most recently to have been reported as slightly above $26k per BTC - yet even with that I really doubt that panic time should even come yet, even if there are some people, like you The Pharmacist that would like to start to panic for them before they are even prepared to start to panic.

For sure, this is showing quite differing ways of thinking about the kinds of plays that MSTR is making in this case... I mean in comparing how Saylor is thinking about the matter and the way that you, The Pharmacist, are worrying about the matter.

You likely realize that I remain bullish, and I continue to consider that not only is MSTR playing this matter well, but that they have employed a lot of decently creative financial instruments to carry out their investment plans.

I have already said that my own recommendations are for individuals and companies to start with 1-10% of their investible assets in bitcoin, and after the very first one or two investments into bitcoin, as shown in fillippone's chart, MSTR/Saylor far exceeded my own BTC recommendation.  But who the fuck am I?  Small potatoes compared to MSTR/Saylor and since they are adults, they have every right to come to their own judgements regarding what is reasonable/prudent or alternatively what is aggressive and assertive (and seems to me that MSTR/Saylor believes that being aggressive/assertive is a better approach to BTC investment--- so who am I to say otherwise - even though I been in BTC nearly around 6.5 years longer - but I surely do not have sophisticated lawyers, accountants and business guys working for my ass, either.. which can surely provide a lot of leveraging power to have a smart guy like Saylor who is leveraging his seeming smartness with other smart people).


Even though my business judgement is likely quite a bit more conservative than MSTR/Saylor, I am not going to second guess their business judgement when they decide to go with very highly assertive amounts, and then subsequently decide to go over 100% in terms of using debt and using credit to bolster their BTC investment which is quite likely calculable to be beyond 100% in a variety of ways that it could be measured in terms of their cashflows, investible assets, and just other assets that they have, such as good will (which can be also considered a kind of credit).

So, in some sense, I doubt that any of us are on grounds to be either second-guessing them or trying to substitute our judgement for their judgement - because each person/business has the freedom to employ their own business judgement - even if any of us might be coming to differing conclusions.

Another matter would be asserting that their decisions could negatively affect bitcoin or the bitcoin community in various ways, and I have difficulties appreciating how their behavior hurts the bitcoin community - and surely there could be scenarios in which they are forced to sell some or all of their bitcoins, but I consider those scenarios to be in a time frame that is further out, such as 3 years or more rather than being anything that should be of anything close to an immediate concern while they continue with their buying spree or their ongoing leveraging down on bitcoin behaviors.


Yes, in theory such a place likely exists, but they do not seem to be there, yet.

 




We have already covered this.  BTC going below their average purchase price is not going to "do them in."

You are creating a strawman argument.



Just because it is "a lot of money" that does not make the situation worse.  Let's say, for example, the BTC price goes down to $13k.. that would meant that their average buy price is double the BTC price.

On a personal level I can relate.  I got into BTC in late 2013, I kept buying BTC through 2014 and most of 2014, my BTC buy price was higher than actual BTC price.  In early 2015 BTC prices were around $200 and then the averaged around $250 for most of 2015, and in the beginning of 2015, my average price per BTC was around $570, but by the end of 2015, my average price per BTC was $500, so I had times that my BTC portfolio was only worth less than 1/3 that I had spent to buy the BTC, but I did not panic.. I continued to buy.  I also had some cashflow problems in early 2015 that lasted pretty much through 2015 and those cashflow problems were not really directly connected with BTC, but it still caused me some inabilities to buy and caused some people to suggest that I should sell some if not all of my BTC, but I told those people that they did not know what they were talking about (because they did not even understand what BTC is/was)..

I am thinking that there could be scenarios that Saylor/MSTR could be in similar scenarios, and even if there are going to be naysayers, like you The Pharmacist, who are going to tell them that they "better figure out their end game" they are already going to have an investment thesis and timeline that goes beyond your concerns about what the immediate price of BTC happens to be - that is if the MSTR/Saylor portfolio goes into negative territories and stays there for a decently long time of maybe even a year or longer or even several years, perhaps?



It does not need to make sense to you.




So what?  they can transition what kind of company they are.  It is not like they have been hiding their transition or their possible transition.




I did not know that there was any kind of standard formula that companies have to follow, especially if they believe that they are trying to be innovative in various ways.. and still disclosing their purported "innovation."


Sure companies might not use debt exactly in the way that MSTR/Saylor has decided to employ such debt, but it is not like he is being secretive about what he is doing.. so I am having trouble seeing your issue, exactly, even though I do understand that you are concerned about volatility risk - and especially downside volatility risk.



Seems crazy to a lot of people (even other bitcoin maximalists), but Saylor has explained his approach, too.. which makes it seem less crazy, no?


Yep... Seems like a very plausible direction for MSTR/Saylor or that new entity that they are using called Macrostrategies (don't know the ticker).


Even though I would prefer to NOT go below $26k, and I would also prefer NOT to stay below $26k for any kind of extended time such as 1-2 years, but sure, it would remains an interesting subject matter to see how MSTR/Saylor would react and play their game in such a scenario.. would they go into silent mode, like a lot of people tend to do while they are underwater?  I am thinking that they would not, but hey hard to know  until it happens, if it were to happen.

Frequently shit happens, and you should be paying attention so that you do not end up getting traumatized by such happenings when they do happen to happen (or alternatively if they do not end up happening to happen).


You are right.

Not going to happen, so I remain unsure why you (or anyone else) would be wishening for such a thing unless just like to live in a fantasy world rather than our real world.   


Patience young padawans.

Whether you were just responding to the content of another person does not really seem to take away the point.. but o.k.. sure... .

Without attempting to devolve too much into off-topicness, another thing is that it seems quite likely that there are going to be a quite a few other presumptions that must be worked out no matter which shitcoin that you might want to apply such principles of buying on dip and/or HODLing.... so I don't see why we would even want to get into those kinds of topics here in this thread.  There's gotta be some other thread to link so that you and kapalmabur can explore such nonsense shitcoin topic to your heart's content.

Yes.. thanks for the reminder Biodom about your previous dumb-ass statements.  It's not the first time that you had made dumb-ass statements, so kind of getting used to it.. no problema.  Anyhow, at first you denied making the "we are stalled" statement because the facts did not really add up, but then when it seemed to have become kind of true, then you embraced your dumb-ass statement full-heartedly (or should I say foolheartedly?).

One thing you are good for, Biodom, and that is... humor.


 


Hm?  

Well, I suppose you could be better off with a proclamation that we are "stalled" currently, but there surely would be some problems with that too.. even though the BTC price has been moving around between mostly $30k and $40k for about a month, but I would even find some difficulties in characterizing such current activities as "stalled."  But whatever, you can say whatever you want to say.. it's a free country.... wait..



Well too bad..

Sucks to be you.  Doesn't it?

 


Yes ... exactly.

When satoshi used the word "cryptocurrency" in 2010, we knew what the fuck he was talking about, right?

Was there any ambiguity?

Don't give into the use of crypto or cryptocurrency too quickly shahzadafzal unless you recognize what the fuck the person using the term is saying or trying to say.

If they are being amorphous about it, or they are failing and refusing (perhaps purposefully?) to clarify the position of bitcoin as compared to shitcoins, then it is likely to your advantage to NOT be so god damned complacent about the use of such term.. even though it is accurate it can be ambiguous as fuck when used by shitcoiners and disingenuine dweebs.. similar to the term blockchain, yet perhaps even more ambiguous these days because all kinds of bullshit is lumped into the term cryptocurrency that had not been lumped into the term blockchain... think about various aspects of Defi and various aspects of NFTs, for example... and also think of some stable coins that might not even rise to the level of being a blockchain.. just some managed project in a database.


That sucks.

Well, I guess you abandoned me, then.

I am going to have to cry all by my lil selfie.

What the fuck are you talking about, ololajulo?  Are you trolling this thread on purpose?

You do not use the word bitcoin in one place in your post.

We are not talking about shitcoins or altcoins or stablecoins here. 

This thread is about bitcoin, so if you bring in those other variables you are changing the dynamics and changing the premise(s) of what is being discussed here.

I will grant that several of us here do seem to have some disagreements in regards to how to manage buying on dips and HODLing and even the extent to which DCA might also fit into such a buying the dip practices - but in some sense there are shared presumptions regarding these discussions regard how to accumulate BTC.. by buying on dips and HODLing (presuming in the event that you run out of money) and other possible tactics that might relate to buying on dips and HODLing..   ... though one kind of funny (and perhaps) ironic angle is that the thread starter (Wind_FURY) is reconsidering his thinking about whether to buy on "every" dip, so part of the problem that any of us can run into is to blow too much of our load too early, so we are not able to take advantage of buying on every dip, which would seem to justify to going to the second preferred choice, HODLing through the matter... no one should want to end up doing the opposite, which would be selling on the dip rather than buying on the dip.. which is one thing that could happen if there were not an attempt to emphasize HODL as the second preferred practice in the event that buying on the dip causes you to run out of money.

And how does that make you fffffeeeeewwwwlll

depressed, yet?

 


You seem to be attempting to put too much weight on some potentially perilous decisions that miners have to make concerning their profitability or lack thereof, but bitcoin gives no shits..

In udder words, miners have to adapt to dee king daddy, not the other way around.

If they find it profitable, then mine.. .

If they don't find it profitable, then don't mine

The difficulty will adjust every two weeks in order that they can recalculate in case such difficulty adjustment may well make any difference (on the margins) in terms of which way such miners were leaning.

I have my doubts any time that I hear that king daddy has to do x, y or z..

king daddy has to go down before up

king daddy has to go sideways for a while

I doubt king daddy gives too many shits, and it could be that if there are enough peeps betting on DOWNity or even sideways  (sideways betters are not very good in terms of leverage betting), then fuel might start to exist.. but whether such fuel would be used might be another question...

More purgening of shitcoins, anyone?  Don't know?  Do shitcoins have pep in their step?  Sure some of them do.  Don't know how it connects, but sometimes the purgening of shitcoins could be an additional irritating factor that is wished to be less of a consideration..


Yeah right.   

Let's ask Arriemoller for a representation regarding what "many people" regard.

Probably the last person I would ask, if I wanted anything close to accurate.

 


hahahaha

Yeah what else is new.

You have been unsure if we are in a bull market or a bear market like forever.

It's like you ongoingly push bear nonsense talking points but act like you want the BTC price to go up.

It's your schtick and sooner or later you are surely going to be right.


Front running of the bear market is surely a plausible possibility, but it still is a minority likelihood in the whole scheme of things, so hopefully you and udder peeps are not failing and refusing to pee pare ur lil selfies for UPpity because you are assigning too high of odds to such a scenario that you are wishing for (while saying that you are not wishing for it).


There's no fucking coin toss, you dweeb.

We are in a bull market.. until we are not... and currently we are in a bull market.. so get over your coin tossing nonsense, you tosser.

I will note that I proclaim 50/50 assertions on a very regular basis in regards to short term BTC price direction, but that is not the same as proclaiming that it is 50/50 regarding whether we are in a bear market of a bull market.. because if you are proclaiming bull/bear market to be 50/50 then you are failing/refusing to give proper weight to ongoing and currently valid BTC prediction theories of stock to flow, 4-year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.


Does not hurt to have some fiat.  Each of us would likely benefit by always being prepared for either BTC price direction, and surely sometimes we are going to come to differing assessments regarding the circumstances to deploy our fiat and how much to deploy under varying scenarios that may or may not end up playing out.

Even though you are asserting that you are not sure which way the BTC price is going to go, you are giving a decent amount of weight to considerations that BTC price might give shits about mining costs.  I have my doubts, but sure, on the margins all kinds of factors are at play.. just hate to be giving too much weight to any one (or narrow set) of factors.

I already responded to some of my concerns about how feckle Wekkel had arrived at his above conclusions, and I suppose several of my comments would apply to responding to your assessments, too, philip.


Can't really argue with that way of putting the matter.

We can cry together.


 

hahahahaha

Don't be sssssso sad, Hhampuz.

It will all work out in the long run.. even if it might not be feeling so ggggggoooooood in the shorter to medium run.

 


Huh?

Which cousin is this one?   This was not cousin BeerHoDL, the one that was working on buying the dip and had gotten coins at around $60k and more coins around $34k and was looking at some more coins at $30k-ish?

From my memory, BeerHoDL would have been in the negative (unless he just categorized a portion of his BTC that he had bought at $34k-ish, for example), so much of that would make little to no sense (not that no coiners make much sense) to be selling at a loss or even not much of a profit, right?

We have seen variations of this kind of behavior from newbies in the past, and surely not limited to individuals because sometimes even institutions have little to no delayed gratification abilities and they are striving to lock in fiat profits.. which seems to be quite short-sighted to several of us longer term coiners.

Well..... thanks for gracing us back with your presence and your squiggly lines, Globb0.

Have you personally been doing anything with your own BTC portfolio management in the last 4 months or so?

You likely know what I have been doing, no?

Sold up to the $60k and then started buying back in the mid $50ks all the way back down to these here lower $30k parts and sold a little and bought a little more in the intermittent ups and downs... so yeah, the BIG question in recent times (and perhaps especially in the past 12-24 hours) does seem to be whether the BTC price might be able to erode enough of the buy support to cause the BTC price to cascade down even further.

How many times have we been visiting these lower $30ks?  This might be 3 or 4 times now, and personally, I am not going to proclaim any kind of solidness in terms of believing that buy support in the lower $30ks is going to be broken.. because remember $6k in 2018.. Jesus.. we had 6 times or more revisiting $6k before it ended up breaking.. but that was a bit of a different set-up too in terms of both the extent of the blow off top up to $19,666 and also the fact that when we were bouncing around in terms of testing support at $6k we were over 5x above the previous ATH of $1,163.

In this case, we are only a little more than 50% above the previous ATH of $19,666 - and surely, none of the surrounding factors matter a whole hell of a lot in terms of saying that our current support in the lower $30ks will break or not, even if it could lend some considerations regarding how likely it is that our current support will end up breaking.. or when, if at all.

I doubt that many of us give too many shits about "crypto" in this thread, including MSTR is focused exclusively on BTC... so it probably is not good to be muddying the description by using nonsense terms like "crypto" in terms of what the motivations of MSTR are regarding the ongoing and even seemingly excessive (relatively speaking) accumulation of more bitcoin.

We can agree or not, but it seems quite apparent that the exact bet that MSTR is making is that bitcoin is superior to cash, especially in recent times when it appears that there is hardly a chance in hell that cash will be even able to hold it's face value even if you were to attempt to put it into some kind of income generating instrument, from MSTR's point of view there seems to almost no way that anyone would be able to hold onto cash and to be able to allow it to even maintain its value.. so in that sense, MSTR is making a speculative bet that bitcoin is better than cash in terms of holding and storing value, and the fact that MSTR is more than willing to employ various kinds of debt instruments, they are concluding (or speculating) that BTC is going to outperform cash, even if they have to pay some servicing fees on top of the cash that they are getting through such debt instruments.

I agree with Ratimov that we should NOT be taking the holding for a century proclamations seriously because any company will need to assess and reassess their situation from time to time, and surely with MSTR a central point of failure is the mortality of Saylor.. and we should know damned well that he is not living more than 50 years, at best.

Surely the long term HODL of MSTR is likely that they are not giving too many shits about buying at any prive because they are considering the more immediate 4-7 years are going to play out quite well in terms of their debts coming due and any amounts of BTC that they accumulate today - even with what many of us consider to be large price swings, MSTR seems to be a bit less concerned about current price swings in terms of timing their ongoing BTC purchases.

Of course, the dollar still has way more liquidity than bitcoin, so that does give a considerable amount of current value to the dollar - and it had a lot of value in March 2020 when there were a lot of people/business who seemed to be unable to get enough dollars - but the outrageous reaction to print exorbitant amounts of dollars might have been amongst seemingly reasonable reactions, many people are going to recognize that there are quite likely to be costs down the road.. including potential instability and all of a sudden gambling kinds of costs to be holding onto something that you might perceive to be so valuable, BIG and uninvincible in the short to medium term, and then all of a sudden confidence could disappear.. but we do not even need to rely on those kinds of dire situations to see the ongoing diluting dynamics that are already in existence to make the dollar less valuable, even if it still remains amongst the most liquid of assets (currencies).

Hopefully, you cheezcarls are not getting so focused on short term happenings or even ideas that the status quo is working so damned well that you cannot appreciate value that is actually coming from such a young asset, such as bitcoin (only 12.5 years old).. and by the way, fuck crypto currencies, because that "crypto" categorization or way of thinking about the matter at hand is NOT going to help any of us in seeing, appreciating and recognizing what is going on in current times as well as if you happen to understand what bitcoin is bringing to the table of valuable and sound money, even if it happens to be a relatively (or would be say "quite"?) young asset class.


Bitcoin price movements have already been affecting their stock prices in pretty damned extreme ways in the past 9 months (like the time to have a baby), and MSTR/Saylor's reaction has been to go deeper and deeper and deeper... so who knows?  He does seem to be gambling, but he does seem more than willing to gamble and it is still looking pretty damned good for him on paper, even with BTC prices having had sunk 53% from the $64,895 top of two-ish months ago. 

Personally, I think that he does have a quite a lot going in his favor, even though the behavior and actions seem to be quite outrageous and he does not seem ready, willing or able to stop (at least, not yet).. but yeah, some of us consider that at some point, he is going to have to feel somewhat saturated or at least good enough, but maybe a lot of CEOs have those kinds of overly assertive personality traits.. and the ongoing amazingness of it all may or may not end up paying off as BIGGEDly as the risked calculation (i.e. gambling) might suggest the odds to be.

Why do you have such a habit of going off topic, here?  There are other threads for stock to flow specifically (take this one for example), and surely within those other threads, members would be more than likely to attempt to address your questions.. including that you might actually read that some variation of your questions might have already been addressed.



I personally doubt that we could proclaim stock to flow to be broken.  Sure, it is currently deviating quite bit from it's trajectory, but what the fuck do you expect?

For example, let's presume that the highs of the model are not met or even close to being met, such as between $150k and $288k, and maybe even the top of this cycle ends up being "in" at $64,895..., sure there are a lot of variations in between, and I would expect that the model would thereby attempt to account for the on the ground happenings in terms of where the price goes, and either the trajectory could be shifted down or made more flat or whatever, and those tweakenings of the model would come from updated facts on the ground... and should be a big so fucking what...

None of us should be placing high odds into some price prediction model(s) that tell us about the future, when the future is not known. 

Furthermore, I am not even attempting to denigrate the stock to flow model because currently I consider that it remains amongst the best of BTC price prediction models so long as it is coupled with 4 year fractal (which is also already built into it) and exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.

Anyhow, any of us buyers, accumulators and HODLers of BTC should be preparing for any BTC price direction even if we might vary in terms of how much weight to be given to various BTC price prediction models.

Regarding the buying on dip?  You have any money left to buy?  you waiting for more dip?  You prepared in case there is no more dip?  These continue to be individualistic questions and considerations.. don't blow your whole wadd on one dip.   

You seem to be changing the topic.

Largely you were saying that if El Salvador goes forward with this bitcoin as legal tender matter, the powers that be in the financial system (such as the USA Govt, IMF and perhaps some other status quo traditional banking stakeholders) were going to be motivated to take out the leader Bukele, and therefore you were suggesting that Bukele should be toning down his pushing forward of the bitcoin legal tender law because he was going to be made an example out of to cause pain end suffering in order that other countries do not model after him.   

In other words, I was describing your views about the political ramifications of this to be "pie in the sky."  So far, we have not been discussing how strike.me works or other ways that bitcoin is likely to be expanded into El Salvador.. so I am not sure why you are wanting to suggest that we had any kind of dispute about that when I was largely just characterizing your speculations about various political reactions as being quite detached from what is either more likely going to happen or even that your going on and on about such seemingly nonsense seems to be distracting at best rather than attempting to grapple with real likely matters that are going to be happening.

At least if you are trying to talk about how strike.me might work or how it might be used or how much it might be used, that seems to be a much more relevant topic and even potentially helpful - to consider how easily/difficult adoption might happen or if there might be some disincentives or problems in terms of strike.me being able to continue to function/serve in its current way of doing so.


I had heard some similar things about strike.me moving over to have less dependencies on USDT in comparison to what they had originally thought and also that strike.me was in the process of attempting to create relations with banks and other exchange services that are already existing in El Salvador that would help from moving away from so much reliance on USDT as they had earlier anticipated would be the case, and even Jack Maller talked about this on his interview with Peter McCormick on the Podcast  "What Bitcoin Did" a few days ago.

Furthermore, I hardly understand why you are wanting to suggest that attempts to expand strike.me services is going to result in doom and gloom.  Yes, a large number of unbanked is an issue that is attempting to be addressed so that those people can use the various strike.me services and would not automatically signify that they even have to get a bank account, as you seem to be presuming without any evidence and largely a seeming motive to turn any news to negative news, even if what you are saying makes damned close to zero sense... but that close to zero sense is not going to stop you from spewing it out, is it?   


Do I want you to tell us more Katie?  Do you know anything?

Are you living in El Salvador? 

Probably I erroneously sent you an smerit too soon because I thought that you might have actually known something..., Whoops.

Does anyone know anything on the ground in terms of services that are using bitcoin in various ways, such as on bitcoin beach or expansion into other parts of the country?  I imagine that some of those matters will be going active before September and surely there is going to be a process of rolling out capabilities.. as DooMAD's above post seems to suggest.

Don't be so depressed.   


I am sure sgbett is a real good guy way deep down on the inside... Of course, you have to go real deep to get passed the vast majority of dweebedness parts.




Wow... "worst case scenario" is pretty damned BIG... especially for a supposed "scientist."

Define "needs to be"


Fuck the charts.

We are in a bull market, for now..


So fuck the flipping of coins too.

In other words, we are in a bull market, until we are not.

In other words, we might be in a bear market tomorrow.. but we are not currently.  Go tell your mom on me.  




Huh?  We got down to $30,066, so far.  this ($33,337) is like the third or so subsequent attempt to test $30,066 support.  

Regarding your question... We are still in a bull market... there is no such thing as a "precursor" to a bear market - unless we look at the matter after the fact, and then we can say:  "that was a precursor to a bear market," but right now, we are currently in a bull market.. (again, until we are not)



Huh?  Not that big of a gamble.

If you are new to bitcoin, then you just start buying and you establish a position.

If you have been in bitcoin for a while, then you have to figure out your own situation in terms of whether you HODL right now.. or buy more or whatever...



Usually it is not good to take out a large position.  However, let's say for example if a newbie has $12k available right now to buy bitcoin and the same person has a cashflow that provides $6k over then next 6 months that could be invested in bitcoin, then what would you recommend?  Personally, I recommend the same thing as I always recommend.  Divide the $12k stash into three and buy $4k right away, and set the other 2/3 up for DCA and buying on dips.  With the other $6k of cashflow, that would likely get injected into DCA and buying on dips, so perhaps knowing that another $6k is coming in, then there might be a question about whether to go up to $6k (rather than $4k with the initial lump sum investing amount - that is $18k divided by 3 rather than $12k divided by 3).  

So?

What you gonna do?  Sit here and whine about whether we might be in a bear market or a bull market and question the matter and inadequately pee pare ur lil selfie for UPpity?  

Answer:  hell no.

You are going to create an individually tailored plan that hopefully makes sure that you are adequately prepared both psychologically and financially for either BTC price direction.


Again:  hell no.  What you believe about the market is ONLY one part of the formula.. you better figure out some other shit first, including but not limited to your cash flow, other investments, view about bitcoin as compared to other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and skills, time and ability to learn, plan, strategize and employ strategies, while tweaking from time to time based on information learned.



I will admit:  nice charts - including your quickie summary of each.


Fuck that law of averages nonsense, Wekkel.  There is a need to appreciate the unique aspect angle of bitcoin including a likely scenario that we are in the midst of the largest transfers of wealth in history.

Another angle that should be accounted for when attempting to figure out how much weight to give to your various charts would be to account for the various currently valid BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on metcalfe principles and networking effects.  Sure, you might end up coming to similar conclusions, but you still better be attempting to incorporate currently valid BTC price prediction models into your weighting of those various charts.



This last section of your analysis is definitely fair...   So cannot really disagree with anything that you are saying in terms of the possibility of another 50% drop from here.. because surely that is possible, and surely less likely if we happen to be in a bull market, but still being in a bull market can come to an end.. so then we would no longer be in a bull market, and sure 50% from here is within reasonable reach (even if at the moment, as I type this responsive post, it seems to be a long shot).  

By the way, the 208-week moving average is currently just above $13k, so usually that 208-week moving average is not very reachable except for during bear markets or extreme short term BTC price spikes to the downside.  The 208-week moving average is continuing to move UPpity, but it is not moving as quickly UPpity while we are in this $30k to $40k price range as compared to when we were in the $50ks and $60ks...

In any event, sure we will see what happens in terms of short-to-medium BTC price direction.... so surely how many coins you have.. could be a definite starting out factor in terms of attempting to figure out  the extent to which to employ any lump summing into the way forward, and surely the devil could well be in the details.. about how much cash might currently be available and ongoing cashflows too along side with other personal factors  - which now I am just inclining (or should we say devolving?) towards repeating myself.