Treasury is operated by saddam. As far as I know, withdrawals are disabled because enabling them would require the corresponding game ledger (changelog) be operational so that it gets recorded both sides. But changelog is paused because the game is paused.

I am very urgently trying to get the players to decide what to do next. This includes the possibility to unpause the game, but the unpausing is not a trivial action and requires many decisions and lots of work.

Councillors,

There is urgent need to get back to work, so please activate the #ck-dev slack channel and discuss about the relevant topics.

The ongoing rise in our currency value has very interesting effects on the game economy, and I cannot alone decide what is the best course of action.

Active people who are not councillors may also ask for access, we need ideas/feedback from many, because this is an important time of decision.

Yes, I am a fan of support/resistance levels theory still, and Fibonacci levels also, and to some extent Elliot waves. And the most I like scenario/probability  analysis.

Let's revisit my "original" reactions to the sudden rise that followed the breaching of the .0042 resistance:





And then after the second breakout, making an ATH in the process:




My original probabilities when there was the breakout from 0.004 but initial failure to make an ATH:
- 30% that the ATH will be made without serious retracement
- 50% that there will be a retracement to the 0.004 zone but it will generally hold and become a confirmed support
- 20% that 0.004 will not hold and we go back to the previous trading range and all the 50k volume pump is a false breakout.

Here I told to refrain from buying, because it is 70% probability that we turn down, and if we do, the gain is at least double in the amount. If, on the other hand, the ATH is breached, I told in advance to FOMO, because that would confirm the first scenario that you do not want to miss out.


Currently it's hard to form scenarios because we are in uncharted waters but something like:

- 30% rise will continue without longer pullback, only flashcrashes
- 30% consolidation at 0.01 to confirm that as support, or staying in 0.01-0.02 range
- 40% we go lower than 0.01 (because it was a pump, or BTC rallies, or many reasons)

Despite that I forecast 70% probability for a decline and only 30% for the rise, I still exhort to buy or at least hold, because there is no limit to the upside in the positive scenario, yet the negative ones are very well contained, and even if they happen, you still hold the XMR and it will go back up later.

Hi, in accordance of what was decided by Town Council sometime in 2015, HH Duke of North Face (Sirjacket, djjacket) is the sole and final arbiter in claims cases related to abandoned accounts.

I am the sole and final authority in other land claims. I do not handle any cases before the game is again up and running again.

Hmmm.. so XMR/BTC has become bigger than USD/BTC. Not bad at all here. Actually I feel the Earth trembling...  

Because of breaking the ATH, I take back the speak about grinding down. There is no grinding down now, but extreme volatility ahead, in search of a completely new trading range. Whether it is near $100 million market cap, or a billion, or 10 or 100 billion - anybody's guess.

In trying to be realistic, I believe about $1 billion.


Why changed my mind so soon?

1. I did not. It was all scenario thinking all the time. This scenario leaves no prisoners so better adapt quickly.

2. The influx of so many new people in the scene, who do not know or care about me, proves the growth (and is liberating)

3. The volume was/is huge. At first I took it as proof of artificial manipulation, but now it's at least possible the volume is real growth. If so, we are still much behind the equilibrium value.


So going back to 0.004 is not very likely. After only a few hours after breaking the ATH, I am leaning towards the negative scenario being 0.01 now.

Price does not matter. The number of XMR matters

I wrote a few pages ago that there is only ~100 seats available in the 10,000 XMR club, and ~1,000 seats in the 1,000 XMR club. This is world wide. Of course it's much more exclusive to have 10k instead of 1k, but both are very good compared to having none. Seling out completely is the thing people lament with Bitcoin.


I saw the rise from the opening of Gox to $32, and everything ever since. Things can escalate quickly: if the market decided there is no need for confirmation at 0.004, there is also no reason to stop at any one value when going higher.

That was one very valid and probable scenario, considering XMR price history since the beginning.

Now, the likelihood of going back to 0.004 is not large anymore.

If someone has sold speculatively, or wants to enter, it might be better to buy than wait for an uncertain meagre drop in price.

The people who bought BTC at $7 did very well.

Congratulations to everybody!

I was trolling in the trollbox last night (my nick there is HM_The_King).

One guy wrote: "Nobody cares what you think about XMR".

I felt good  Seems that we have a new generation.

Well 0.00810 is a little higher than 0.00786, but overall I congratulate myself. This was a very actionable and timely forecast.

And next it is going down. Difficult to say how quickly, though.

I mentioned in the trollbox that it's possibly going to 0.00786 before hitting resistance and crashing again. The top should be reached within 24 hours, and the subsequent crash go perhaps to 0.0055-0.006 area.

Both are intended. The game is paused, and we want people to be able to edit the item:desc. Please edit them smartly

Oh, so you believe the target is correct, but it won't take months to reach it? 

Well that is why I said "may". What I especially mean is that do not believe the first panic flashcrash to 0.005 is the bottom. Take wisdom from Bitcoin early-2014. It went up fast (to $1100), but the following bottom ($220) was quite a bit lower than the April-13 high ($266).

So even if the low is 0.0035 it fits this scenario perfectly.

The speculator must take into account all price scenarios, and ensure that none of them is ruinous.

In ETC universe, he owns the coins free and clear.

The consolidation continues. I am inclined to see 0.008-0.0085 as a short term resistance now. Unless we get there in 2 days, this is confirmed, and the 0.01 double top is confirmed as well (2014,2016).

If we resume the grinding slide that I am forecasting, it may take months to reach the target 0.0042. And of course there is never a guarantee that it is reached. If great news come, it is likely to throw the grind scenario out of the window.

The amount of BTC required, matters surprisingly little. If we know the total number of coins, have any idea of the total number of holders, and estimate the largest holding, the degrees of freedom are used up.

What is your strategy for the investment?

- For trading, FOMO is usually not good, but you can buy others' FOMO and trade profitably.

- For believing that Monero will rock the world, think of it as having a 50M USD marketcap!! Any rocking of anybody's monetary system requires a market cap 1,000 times that big (in reality a million times, but that much profit is hard to comprehend), so it absolutely does not matter at all whether you buy after a doubling move, just do it!

- BUT since the upside is so large, it does not matter if you wait either If you have any reason to believe you can buy cheaper with accumulation strategy etc, just do it! If you don't have any experience trading/timing XMR, just do it!

I have written threads about the specifics of the model how these can be calculated. Instead of referring to those, I try to write it again in less formal but more understandable way.

1. Number of coins (XMR) is known, 12,700,000.

2. There is a largest holding. We don't know how large it is but my belief is more than 500,000 and less than 5,000,000 XMR. I am assuming 1,000,000 in the beginning of the deduction.

3. There is the smallest holding that matters. Anything below that is considered dust, and its owners don't count. Let us use 1 XMR because it's a round figure. Usually I prefer about $2 worth.

The above is true because it just is. So how can we know anything about how the coins are owned by people?

The answer is statistical probability. The number of coins each owner has, is a random variable. Therefore, the probability of someone owning 231 XMR (or: any number between 231-231.999999999999) has to be very near the probability of someone owning 232 XMR (or: any number between 232-232.999999999999). Or if not, there needs to be a valid explanation.

Another rule is called power law, and it says that the top end of many statistical phenomena, tends to behave so that if the largest value is 1, the second, third, etc. largest values are close to 1/2, 1/3, etc (or: the set [1; 1/2; 1/3; ...] is a good fit to the set of actual values).

Therefore, with the initial guess that the largest owner has 1,000,000 XMR, we can first construct the power law "elite" of 1,000 owners who own anything between 1,000 XMR (1,000th richest) and 1,000,000 XMR (1st richest). In total, the 1,000 largest owners have 7,500,000 XMR.

This answers your question. The reason there are surprisingly little people who fulfil "owns at least X XMR" is that to satisfy statistical continuity, there has to be people owning 2x that amount, and the number of those people tends to be 1/2x the number owning the smaller amount, and this goes all the way until the largest holding.

So the TOP-1000 who have 1,000 XMR or more, collectively own 7,500,000 XMR. The rest, with smaller holdings, are much more in number, but altogether own only 5,200,000 XMR.

There is a scenario universe for the possible assumptions. It is possible to decide sigma levels and make a more complicated multi-scenario calculation. But it does not really matter.

How can you reply in 14 seconds??  

There is about the same number of XMR as there is BTC, both in circulation, and in total.

So this answers all your questions:

Holding 5000 XMR is like holding 5000 BTC. If it does not feel good enough, then it's too little.

There are about as many people holding 10k or 5k, as there are people holding 10000 or 5000 BTC. I can also tell the number, after practicing quite a lot of this in my youth: about 100 people have 10k or more, 150-200 people have 5k or more.

What you say is clearly a possibility. However, technical analysis ignores fundamentals and news, insider information, and everything except price, and that alone. If someone is out of XMR, it might make sense to enter slowly even at the current price. But XMR's nature has been to visit the key price points (in this case 420k) repeatedly, so I am interested to see what happens