[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rpietila]

The consolidation continues. I am inclined to see 0.008-0.0085 as a short term resistance now. Unless we get there in 2 days, this is confirmed, and the 0.01 double top is confirmed as well (2014,2016).

If we resume the grinding slide that I am forecasting, it may take months to reach the target 0.0042. And of course there is never a guarantee that it is reached. If great news come, it is likely to throw the grind scenario out of the window.

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[bitebits]

Besides, until we have no market for turning XMR in $ or €

Won't be long. The countdown has started. (No inside info here, just stating the obvious.)

Quite surprised that BTC-E.com still does not support Monero, seems like a perfect match.

[opennux]

Besides, until we have no market for turning XMR in $ or €

Won't be long. The countdown has started. (No inside info here, just stating the obvious.)

While I of course agree that XMR has nowhere near the POW security that Bitcoin has

I don't agree (largely echoing sammy007's comment). The more centralized the mining with the more barriers to entry, the less efficient a mining network is in converting raw hash rate into real security. Raw energy burn is only a small part of the equation. It is more accurate to say that it is difficult to compare the security of the two because they are quite dissimilar in nature.

Monero's security in practice is quite significant. Someone on reddit asked about building a 500kh/sec mine. That would require about 500 or more devices (higher-end GPUs or CPUs) and still only be about 2% of the network hash rate (which will likely rise significantly if this repricing is sustained). Already and for some time Monero's network has ranked among the largest supercomputers and with the repricing may soon surpass all supercomputers. There is no "easy" attack on Monero's hash rate possible or likely.

That's a very good point smooth. The only metric I was talking about was hash-rate - not who owns the hashrate.

[nanobrain]

Besides, until we have no market for turning XMR in $ or €, the cashout probably will still be in BTC, which does not lift the price of XMR a little bit.

The more I study this sentence the less it makes sense.
Perhaps by "no" do you mean "a" - in which case, you do realise that Polo already has a XMR/USD market. 

To be fair it is XMR/TUSD

OK, apologies...my bad.

It still doesn't make that sentence coherent though

[smoothie]

The people of Monero should provide the volume in Bitsquare. The last time I have seen it there was nothing happening in the exchange. Hiring market makers to accommodate people from the darkmarket selling and buying XMR might be a good idea. It will also help start the market activity in Bitsquare with XMR as the "star" currency making it become in the center of attraction again. I hope the Monero whales will have a long term game plan like that.

Market making is riskier than usual at the moment. tough to do profitably when the price tends to leave ranges behind at the drop of a hat 

Not really. If you chose to use a small % of your total stash to market make with it shouldn't be that risky.

[smoothie]

Besides, until we have no market for turning XMR in $ or €

Won't be long. The countdown has started. (No inside info here, just stating the obvious.)

Quite surprised that BTC-E.com still does not support Monero, seems like a perfect match.

This would be ideal as poloniex being the only large volume exchange for monero trading is quite bothersome.

[sparky999]

Has anyone considered that the ''hacker'' who took all that ETC may consider moving it through or storing it in XMR especially with the recent hype?

I think his coins become available on the 2nd Sept if I remember correctly, would be a great way to make it look like a ton of DNM money is flowing through XMR following the 1st Sept start of deposits on Alphabay causing another surge in price.

[sandiman]

Has anyone considered that the ''hacker'' who took all that ETC may consider moving it through or storing it in XMR especially with the recent hype?

I think his coins become available on the 2nd Sept if I remember correctly, would be a great way to make it look like a ton of DNM money is flowing through XMR following the 1st Sept start of deposits on Alphabay causing another surge in price.

Didn't you find anything better ? am I smelling fear ??

[sparky999]

I'm not sure what you mean?

It was a genuine question

[GingerAle]

Checked on Alphabay to see how Monero is doing there. Its not even begun and there are 75 pages of items from sellers that accept Monero, lots of them are accepting Monero ONLY. No need to brag any more, image is worth a thousand words 

http://imgur.com/a/nkOQr

That's a great sign! With all of the old DNM's being busted by the fed's, this is a good indication that the rest of the markets will follow alphabay.


Also, is there any point in holding bitcoin? Or maybe reducing the core holdings of bitcoin and increasing the monero position.

The only reason I can see to hold bitcoin is that Bitcoin becomes the global megaledger of the power elite that it is slowly becoming and somehow the integrity of the network is maintained, meaning that they will let you spend your coins. Unfortunately, to become this ledger requires massive hashpower, which is unfortunately centralized in a small handful of places. This centralization, of course, can bend to the whims of whoever feels like bending it. Here's a good example of a bitcoin mining conglomerate doing something..... interesting. http://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/education-centre/bitfury-fights-anonymity-on-the-bitcoin-blockchain-in-the-name-of-security/ . Basically, I don't see how bitcoin remains out of the control of the elite. It has the possibility of creating a new financial elite (those controlling the network), but even those elite can be swayed by the old money. THe problem is fungibility, and in my mind there's just too much of a probability that the existing Bitcoin network will be co-opted by the powers that be towards their ends. If they manage to do this and maintain "openness" of bitcoin (as in, all bitcoin are good), then holding bitcoin makes sense. But it is incredibly easy for anyone.... ANYONE... to deem that your bitcoin are not worth the same as my bitcoin, because of their history.

To their credit, bitcoin is attempting to improve things, but IMO you just can't turn a Model T into a Model S.

I have projected and continue to project a bitcoin future where the mining cartels are also exchanges and become the new banks. One such mining firm has already made inroads into this concept, by reducing the fees for transactions made from their online wallet service. If you control 30% of the hashrate, you can cram whatever you want into the blockchain - you don't need to satisfy the minimum relay fee.

So the problems with bitcoin are 2 fold - fungibility, which could be addressed in some fashion, and mining centralization, which is tragedy of the unregulated commons gone rampant. To get a sense, the network hashrate of bitcoin is 1,612 million GH/s. THe hashrate of p2pool, which can be used as a surrogate for a metric of how many people actually care about decentralization in bitcoinland, is 1.6 million Gh/s.

So 0.09%

I'm not banking on 0.09% of the network. Literally.

Monero has the upper hand on fungibility, but centralization is something that will require constant tending.

[thelibertycap]

The people of Monero should provide the volume in Bitsquare. The last time I have seen it there was nothing happening in the exchange. Hiring market makers to accommodate people from the darkmarket selling and buying XMR might be a good idea. It will also help start the market activity in Bitsquare with XMR as the "star" currency making it become in the center of attraction again. I hope the Monero whales will have a long term game plan like that.

The problem with Bitsquare or in fact the problem with bitcoin is that bitcoin is not fungible thus selling your perfectly fungible moneros for possibly tainted bitcoins from a theft could result in value lost or complete inability to sell the coins n a normal way in a couple of years - I think the market should discount the reduced value of such coins and sellers there should learn to accept higher prices for monero.
The other way around when exchanging has no added risk because whoever buys your monero has exactly the same monero as they could buy from Poloniex or some other place.

I agree that having a p2p market is important and hope that people will support the market when they see an opportunity to sell monero with a justifiable premium there for non-fungible coins.

[Drhiggins]

Does anyone know of an exchange that you can buy Gold/Silver/Platinum with XMR? 

[farfiman]

Does anyone know of an exchange that you can buy Gold/Silver/Platinum with XMR? 

Plenty of them take bitcoin. Just use XMR.TO

[aminorex]

Basically, I don't see how bitcoin remains out of the control of the elite. ... can be swayed by the old money.

Or by new firearms.  By elite you mean the Chinese communist party.  That is who now has control of the overwhelming bulk of the ASIC hash power, ultimately: The central committee.  Specifically, the revanchist wing of the central committee, the ones seeking war in the south china sea, and the lopping of a thousand blossoms.

[elrippo]

Has anyone considered that the ''hacker'' who took all that ETC may consider moving it through or storing it in XMR especially with the recent hype?

I think his coins become available on the 2nd Sept if I remember correctly, would be a great way to make it look like a ton of DNM money is flowing through XMR following the 1st Sept start of deposits on Alphabay causing another surge in price.

...This IS manipulation, maybe the cashout of the bitfinex hack, and that is obvious....

[aminorex]

If the DAO hack gets laundered through XMR, it will establish a major precedent, and XMR will subsequently attract vast funds, as well as intense political pressure.  Expect huge volatility, along with a massive long term upward price pressure in that case.

Personally, I would not choose XMR if I were the DAO hacker, except as a long term investment.  I would move about half of my value into XMR cold storage, mix the rest as btc, and buy stolen gold and shelf-stable drugs on AlphaBay with BTC.

[elrippo]

Besides, until we have no market for turning XMR in $ or €, the cashout probably will still be in BTC, which does not lift the price of XMR a little bit.

The more I study this sentence the less it makes sense.
Perhaps by "no" do you mean "a" - in which case, you do realise that Polo already has a XMR/USD market.  

To be fair it is XMR/TUSD

OK, apologies...my bad.

It still doesn't make that sentence coherent though

Sorry the autocorrection tricked me in the morning  
You are right, "a" was ment to stand here.

[...]until we have no market for turning XMR in $ or €, the cashout probably will still be in BTC, which does not lift the price of XMR a little bit.
[...]

Can you explain why it makes a difference for the dollar price of a monero, whether it is being 'cashed out' to dollars or bitcoins?

I do not endorse it but there is a clear incentive, especially in the DNM sector, that merchants keep their profits in XMR. That actually does lift the price of a monero.

The thing with poloniex is your ID. If i would be a DNM seller of some substances or other unfriendly arms, i would think twice before i cash out my DNM money on poloniex, even with multiple accounts, but that is just my opinion.

The other thing is, if seller S sells his goods for 1000XMR and buyer B buys for 1000XMR (6,5BTC), buyer B has to purchase his 1000XMR from somewhere, most likely changed BTC to XMR which would be the buy side on poloniex, just asuming this.
Now seller S has 1000XMR and wants to cash them out for example on poloniex two days later at 0,0070 that would represent the sell side on poloniex.

Now we have a buy of 1000XMR at 0,0065 and two days later a sell of 1000XMR at 0,0070.
Now you ask why is this price rising in two days from 0,0065 to 0,0070? Let's asume more DNM buyers purchase XMR on poloniex and that lifts the price 8% in two days. After these two days the sellers on the DNM sell their XMR on poloniex at the rates driven by the buyers.
What do you think will the price BTC/XMR on poloniex do?
Pretty nothing, waving around at +/-10% for quite a long time.

What a lot of people in this discussion asume, is simply the fact that suddenly in a few days all DNM buyers purchase XMR, and keep purchasing XMR for a long time, and in the same timeframe the sellers on the DNM do not sell their XMR.
Well in my honest opinion, this is quite a naive stand, especially taking the timeframe of lets say 3 days from 0,004x to 0,009x into consideration.
Like i mentioned, buy walls of up to 500BTC and a 40kBTC volume....

Even if all DNM buyers would buy BTC and lets take an average of 10BTC per buyer this would have to represent 4k people buying and selling XMR in 3 days just to get goods on the DNM --> i do not think so

I know my opinion is unpopular at the moment, but my last prediction was also right, when we went up to 0,004x, i also sayed this is a marketmaker playing around, taking the almost symetrical rise and fall and behaviour into consideration.

Just my own opinion on my stand  

[elrippo]

The consolidation continues. I am inclined to see 0.008-0.0085 as a short term resistance now. Unless we get there in 2 days, this is confirmed, and the 0.01 double top is confirmed as well (2014,2016).

If we resume the grinding slide that I am forecasting, it may take months to reach the target 0.0042. And of course there is never a guarantee that it is reached. If great news come, it is likely to throw the grind scenario out of the window.

I enjoy your posts and i do like your math well explained, but Risto, i have to disagree on this point.
The volume is declining steadily, and i personaly do not see all of your prediction becoming true, i think this will be much faster and harder.

Let's wait, drink some tea and watch the birds are doing  

[thelibertycap]

If the DAO hack gets laundered through XMR, it will establish a major precedent, and XMR will subsequently attract vast funds, as well as intense political pressure.  Expect huge volatility, along with a massive long term upward price pressure in that case.

Personally, I would not choose XMR if I were the DAO hacker, except as a long term investment.  I would move about half of my value into XMR cold storage, mix the rest as btc, and buy stolen gold and shelf-stable drugs on AlphaBay with BTC.

How would he move such vast amount of traceable coins to XMR?
Well, the question is was the hack actually illegal? - after all ETC stands by the idea that the contract is valid, there is no hack and ETH people reverted the transaction so should not care although could be interested in catching him.

How would he exchange the coins for any other coin exactly? What could the attacker actually do with the coins?
How much value does one tainted coin have vs untainted?
I say let the market decide! I think plenty of people would be interested in cheaper although tainted coins - just set the price right.

[LiskKing]

What will happen for XMR price if ROGER Ver make 25% all his BTC into XMR?

He can make 1000 BTC buy wall on POLO - he is capable i think no?