Bitcoin Price Update for August 16, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

As the stagnation in the bitcoin markets intensifies once again, patience and discipline become a trader's most valuable tools.  The lack of fundamental catalysts over the near term combined with a still murky technical picture on the medium to long term charts means it's every man for himself in these conditions.  With that in mind, market marker's can create their own small scalp trades within a tight trading range like we are in now due to the size of their capital pool, however us normal traders need to be much more selective in conditions such as these so as to preserve capital to deploy in a more favorable environment.

Getting to the aforementioned technicals, today we are looking at the 12-hour chart once again for a closer inspection of the medium term outlook.  To begin, we can see that price remains well within both the larger symmetrical triangle formation, as well as in the light blue pivot area, and continues to fill in volume profile between 550 - 600 $.  Additionally, market structure looks like it is trying to shift to a more bullish pattern while SCMR continues to paint red candles, although it looks like we should see a potential bullish reversal over the next day or two as long as the 554.90 $ low on Stamp can hold. Finally, dynamic resistance is now sitting overhead at 575 $ while the near term OTE short zone sits in the key 580 - 600 $ area, making it difficult for bulls to push through those levels without some help.

Moving on, notice that despite persistent weakness over the past few days, the momentum oscillators are still not recharged enough for our liking.  Willy is close to overbought but still has some room to run to the downside, RSI is showing a bullish divergence although it too has room to fall, and MACD has remained resilient but is now close to breaking back below the zeroline.  Not only that, but the A/D line has flatlined, trading volumes are still favoring sellers, and there remains a porous volume profile setup down below 560 $.

Generally speaking, we are still in the neutral camp with an inclination to buy dips into our supportive buys zones.  Despite the possibility that we could see a small countertrend move back up into the 580 - 600 $ resistance region, we would not chase that rally considering we still think we could get a shot in the 540 - 550 $ PT area in the not too distant future.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin Price Report for August 15, 2016
 
Market Commentary (BTC): 

Indeed we got a rather uneventful weekend, as expected, despite a pullback to the bottom of the still intact trading range between 550 - 600 $.  Following a local low of 556.24 $ yesterday, price has since been slowly recovering back into the 570 $ area.  Seeing as though we are currently in the heart of the summer trading doldrums we are not expecting much movement this week either, although if the 550 - 600 $ range does get broken somehow then stronger support still lies at 520 $ and resistance at 630 $. 

With that in mind, let's take a look at the 6-hour chart for a snapshot of the short to medium term technicals.  First of all, notice that the ascending wedge we pointed out last week was indeed a bearish signal as price is now well below those levels.  Also notice that we are still in the light blue pivot zone despite a quick washout below it on Sunday, and we remain in a volume profile mini-PoC region with a notch around 580 $ that needs to be filled in prior to a move out of this range. 

Additionally, SCMR is still painting red candles with new minor dynamic resistance building around 575 $, and market structure remains bearish despite the semblance of stability coming back into the market now.  Finally, the 9/18 EMA cross remains ...

Chart here: https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-august-15-2016

Bitcoin Price Update for August 11, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Bitfinex began trading again yesterday for the first time in over a week, and surprisingly the market has taken it in stride.  Despite a quick selloff down to the mid-580's $ following some restart issues at Finex, the market just as quickly rebounded back up near the 600 $ level.  Now we are once again pinned to the upper end of the still intact 580 - 600 $ trading range, although price did peak up through there on Bitstamp yesterday to reach a local high of 603 $.  While we still think that a test of higher resistance in the 620 - 630 $ region is a possibility over the course of the next week or two, there are some technical features on the shorter term charts that are giving us pause for the time being.

Moving on to said technicals, we can see on the 6-hour chart below that despite price being in a minor uptrend, it is also forming a bearish ascending wedge pattern.  These formation have been fairly accurate in the bitcoin markets over the past 6-12 months so we are giving it due credence. Additionally, we are at the top of the light blue pivot zone, Willy is overbought, RSI and MACD are trying to paint small bearish divergences, and buyside volumes have been unimpressive. 

Meanwhile, SCMR is now painting some green candles despite heavy dynamic resistance overhead at 630 $, market structure is starting to turn more positive, and the A/D line is still pressing to the upside. Not only that, but the 9/18 EMA cross is now turning bullish and there is a large volume profile notch above 600 $ that will need to be filled-in in the not too distant future.  Speaking of volume profile, notice that PoC is all the way up above the 200-period SMA so even if we can push through 630 $, there is more resistance waiting in the wings between 640 - 650 $. 

Considering that the momentum oscillators are relatively bearish while we are nearing the apex of this ascending wedge, we think another move to the downside in the next few days is a decent possibility. The OTE long zone down around the trendline and at the top of the demand area would be our preferred spot to add to the MT ProTrade, however we are not expecting a move back down to those levels just yet.  Instead, at least over the near term, we would still be buyers of a selloff in to the 530 - 550 $ range.

GLGT!

https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin BullBear Price Update for August 10, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

The market continues to settle into this 580 - 600 $ range as positioning for the next breakout move intensifies.  Given that Bitfinex will reopen operations within the next 48 hours, we are expecting volatility to pick up at least a little bit which very well could drive us out of this trading zone.  A move out of this area will likely lead to a 30 $ move in either direction (550 $ if we break down, 630 $ if we break up), but is unlikely to go beyond that in our opinion. 

Moving on to the technicals, we can see on the daily chart below that price is rolling over right around a historical resistance line, the bottom of the pivot area, and at the 9 EMA.  Additionally, there is a volume profile notch just overhead and market structure is coming in bearish, while trading volumes continue to confirm the move to the downside last week.  Lastly, notice that SCMR is painting red candles again while also showing multiple reversal cancellations over the past few days.  This is not a great sign for the bulls, but is also not a death knell.

Despite these bearish indications, it is not all bad news for the bulls at this time.  Notice that Willy is now testing the centerline while in a slight uptrend, RSI remains pinned in the lower half which means that there is room to run to the upside, and PPO is still painting bright green bars (a bullish signal).  Also, MACD is still showing a substantial bullish divergence from the washout last week and is now challenging the zeroline, while the A/D line continues to press to the upside.  Finally, it now appears that we could be in yet another triangle consolidation with a midpoint right around current levels.  This might help explain the stagnation we have seen over the past week as players resign themselves to the fact that we may be at fair value for the time being.

All things considered, we do not want to alter our forecast in any significant way at this time.  Near term caution, medium term neutrality, and longer term bullish bias are how we continue to view the market at this time.  Until we get a breakout from this 580 - 600 $ range we will remain patient in letting the market come to us, however if price does make a move then the key levels to watch are 550 $ to the downside and 630 $ to the upside.  To reiterate, we would continue to employ a "buy the dips, sell the rips" mentality for shorter term scalp trading while we continue to wait for lower prices to add to the longer term positions. 

More charts, reports, and our slack channel here: https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

GLGT!

Bitcoin BullBear Price Update for August 10, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

The market continues to settle into this 580 - 600 $ range as positioning for the next breakout move intensifies.  Given that Bitfinex will reopen operations within the next 48 hours, we are expecting volatility to pick up at least a little bit which very well could drive us out of this trading zone.  A move out of this area will likely lead to a 30 $ move in either direction (550 $ if we break down, 630 $ if we break up), but is unlikely to go beyond that in our opinion. 

Moving on to the technicals, we can see on the daily chart below that price is rolling over right around a historical resistance line, the bottom of the pivot area, and at the 9 EMA.  Additionally, there is a volume profile notch just overhead and market structure is coming in bearish, while trading volumes continue to confirm the move to the downside last week.  Lastly, notice that SCMR is painting red candles again while also showing multiple reversal cancellations over the past few days.  This is not a great sign for the bulls, but is also not a death knell.

Despite these bearish indications, it is not all bad news for the bulls at this time.  Notice that Willy is now testing the centerline while in a slight uptrend, RSI remains pinned in the lower half which means that there is room to run to the upside, and PPO is still painting bright green bars (a bullish signal).  Also, MACD is still showing a substantial bullish divergence from the washout last week and is now challenging the zeroline, while the A/D line continues to press to the upside.  Finally, it now appears that we could be in yet another triangle consolidation with a midpoint right around current levels.  This might help explain the stagnation we have seen over the past week as players resign themselves to the fact that we may be at fair value for the time being.

All things considered, we do not want to alter our forecast in any significant way at this time.  Near term caution, medium term neutrality, and longer term bullish bias are how we continue to view the market at this time.  Until we get a breakout from this 580 - 600 $ range we will remain patient in letting the market come to us, however if price does make a move then the key levels to watch are 550 $ to the downside and 630 $ to the upside.  To reiterate, we would continue to employ a "buy the dips, sell the rips" mentality for shorter term scalp trading while we continue to wait for lower prices to add to the longer term positions. 

More charts, reports, and our slack channel here: https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

GLGT!

Bitcoin BullBear Price Update for August 9, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

As price continues to struggle in this 580 - 600 $ resistance area, the fact that there hasn't been a breakdown out of this range yet is somewhat encouraging.  That said, the technicals remain mixed on most timeframes and the fundamentals are still uncertain regarding Bitfinex, so at this time we think the market stays in a rather tight range.  If price can break above 600 $ then the key 630 $ resistance level will likely come into play, and if not then we think we will revisit the bottom of the pivot area around 560 $.  Either way, there remain a lack of favorable setups on either the long or the short side at current levels so we will wait for the market to give us a hint as to directionality over the next few days.

Today we zoom in slightly via the 6-hour chart below to try to glean some clues as to where we might be headed over the course of this week.  We can see that price is still trapped up in this OTE short zone, pivot area, and volume profile mini-PoC, while SCMR continues to paint neutral candles.  Also notice that the medium term uptrend line remains intact and is rising up to meet the top of the demand area at the key 520 $ level.  We also still have an OTE long zone down in the 500 $ region so if price can manage to get back down there then we will be buyers of that dip.

Moving on to momentum and volume we can see that Willy is now officially overbought, RSI is struggling to get over the centerline, and MACD has correct back to zero despite no big price moves. Additionally, the 9/18 EMA cross is flatlining once again, the 200-period SMA is now firmly in a downtrend, and the A/D line is still creeping higher but is hitting resistance.  Lastly, sell volumes still seem to be outweighing buy volumes even though there has been a noticeable decrease in overall trading volume, and volume profile could use some filling in at both higher and lower levels.

At this time the market is in gridlock between 580 - 600 $ so until this range is broken one way or the other we will remain in a holding pattern within this area.  As we have been saying for many weeks now this remains a "buy the dips, sell the rips" market until further notice, so we will continue to watch the 500 - 550 $ region for long setups and the 600 - 630 $ area to take profit or get short.  Having said that, buys in the low 500's $ are longer term plays for a potential resolution out of this consolidation, and any shorts put on are very near term in nature and should be considered high risk.  Even still, there could be some good opportunities in the not too distant future.

GLGT!

See more here: https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/

Bitcoin BullBear Price Update for August 8, 2016 

Market Commentary (BTC): 

Indeed the weekend brought some subdued price action with a bullish bias up to the 600 $ resistance region as expected.  Now as we enter the new week, price is staying pinned to the 590 $ level which is a sign that there are not as many sellers in this area as previously expected.  Despite the possibility that the bulls continue to push price to the upside through 600 $, we do not think there is enough juice technically speaking to get through heavier resistance around 630 $.  Having said that, we remain buyers around 520 $ and sellers around 630 $ for the time being.

Back to the trusty 12-hour chart today for a look at the short to medium term technicals.  First, we can see that price has popped back above the 200-period SMA and 18 EMA, but is now running into resistance in the form of the 9 EMA as well as the top of the pivot zone.  Also notice that we are entering a fairly large volume profile notch as SCMR continues to paint neutral candles, so we may be stalled around these levels for some time.

Moving on to momentum we can see that Willy has broken above the centerline but looks somewhat toppy near term, RSI remains below 50 and is flatlining, and MACD is still unconvincing for either bulls or bears.  Additionally, the CM Vix remains bullish considering we have a clear volatility bottom on the 465 $ spike low, while the A/D line continues to press to the upside indicating that there are still buyers at these relatively elevated levels.

Seeing as though the market is running into some trouble here around 600 $ while the technicals continue to repair themselves from the damage caused last week, we still think a move back to the downside is likely prior to a breakout over 630 $.  We would be buyers of that dip back into the lower half of the medium term OTE long zone, upper part of the demand area, and around the trendline. 

More generally speaking, we think the market remains in a longer term consolidation as we have been saying for months, while we maintain our forecast for an upside resolution eventually.  That said, we could be stuck in this 450 - 750 $ range for another month or two so we will continue to hunt opportunities within this wide trading range.  We think there will be plenty of them over the coming weeks, however things may move a bit slower than normal due to seasonal factors such as summer vacations and "back to school".

GLGT!

Chart: https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-august-8-2016

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