Hey JJG, it's Thursday.

Thoughts?  

Over 13% against fiat today, and rising against BTC too.  So not really worried.  

Honeypony don't give a shit

Yes but, it was tumbling down from the ATH:

Welcome BAC. Yep it's a decent coin - you will find it has fans in all the right places for good reasons.  The whole market is tough right now of course, but the cream will rise once the shakeout is done.   

And IMHO Monero is about as creamy as it gets - but make your own mind up of course. Plenty to read out there - it's a big community.

Hey - I am not going to judge a fellow OG with the same fears as I have

I think Caitlin's a pretty square old school banker (she was a big cheese in merchant banking) who went a little bit 'rogue'. So I listen, but sure - with a small pinch of salt.

I think she is used to being combative and effective... but she is flagging up banker scam-thinking and so is worth a listen.  We're talking about it - and maybe a little more sceptically because of her, so she is at least doing some good.  Her POV is at least a contrary one and a thought provoking.

BAKKT aside; bigger picture:  

Basically, we are hodling and passing through dark times.  It is tough.  We may, or may not be right.  But if we are right, these will be the times we will feel vindicated by.

I am betting (and buying) on a gut feeling we are right.  So are you (you're still here, right?) and it's too late to sell at the top, too late for pointless hindsight. Now we can only take the pain, sit it out and find out.

If it works out, we will have EARNED the right to feel smug as fuck that we were right all along.

And I think we are right.

I bought Monero from the earliest point it was possible to and just kept going because I believed in it.  I cost averaged down by buying more when it dropped, I traded the hell out of it to get more and in the end it came through beyond my wildest dreams. Bitcoin the same.  

One I thing I have learned is that is keeping cool and sticking to what you know is fundamentally of value is what worked for me and so I have no reason to change that strategy anytime soon.

The next couple of months will be a great buying opportunity for those with the balls to take it.

I think Caitlin Long has a point - and if you've see her talking on it, it's pretty convincing.  I do think the crypto market is equivocal about it, I am not personally convinced it will be 'all good' either.   Yes, it involves real bitcoin, unlike the CME /CBOE futures and therefore should draw coins from the market.  However, the habitual rehypothecation habits those behind BAKKT are used to are real - and these habits, if applied - risk challenging part of the the value proposition Bitcoin offers; that of it being hard money with a verifiable, fixed and limited supply.

I would like to think it will help Monero, but Monero is still in a crypto market driven by Bitcoin, so if BAKKT is bad for Bitcoin, then even if Monero is not part of it, it won't help.

Let's hope BAKKT is a positive, we can only wait and to see.

Maybe, depends on Bitcoin.  I have a couple of XMR buys further down in both USD and BTC pairs, but it seems $40 is the new $50 XMR/USD resistance level, for now and we may have seen the worst (unless Bitcoin dives again).

I think there will still be uncertainty and possible lower lows in BTC until end of January, unless there is a BAAKT 'bump' coming.

Hmm...  To me, it looks like (but for the last few weeks) it was a triangle.

A triangle we fell out of the bottom of.

But hey, what do I know?

I am pretty sure that in the last three years the annual absolute low was in January. All around two weeks in.

In 2014 and this one we had a December ATH to tumble down from.

So unless Bakkt does pick things up, maybe the few weeks post-year end will be the final spike down.  The end of the year is a taxation point, so it's perhaps an oddly diptastic month for a reason. I am not a bear, but it is why I am wary of calling the bottom yet.

EDIT: Stuff

Brilliant - had me in fits.

Sorry Mic, I think Jan could see a lower price than now, gonna plump for a rise from the low, but only up to $3950.

But then I have not even been close in any other games, so don't worry

Mic - you might want to put a limit on this in case BAKKT doesn't launch - say end of 2019?

Otherwise the game might be open forever!

Am gonna have a think on a guess - thanks for some cheer and fun in all the doom and gloom!

That video was in 2011.

Back then he was ridiculed.  He answered one guy thus:

'I think there will come a day when people like you wish they would have purchased 10 coins for $10...'

I just hope he had a lot more than that and was a hodler.

Hmm..  I have fiat ready, but I'm going to wait a little. I still reckon we have one more, possibly gut-wrenching dip to come and I don't see the real volume or definite support yet.  I will be happy to be wrong, but I'm keeping powder dry for now.

Hang on, the Roach thing called you 'creepy'?   LOL  Badge of honour.  Carry on, old bean.

I get a similar reaction to some scents - and it isn't because they're cheap.  

Ages back my (then new) gf seemed to suddenly start smelling bad, I told her to change her scent but it seemed to be on all her clothes, in her wardrobe etc.  I started to think it was her and we just were not compatible.  I told her I had this issue and asked her to let me sniff the perfumes she had.  It was just one and it nailed it.  I was so relieved (we are still together)

I don't know what chemical in the mix it was.  But I still notice it in a crowd if anyone is wearing scent containing it - it is so distinctive and it's not just one brand, it's an ingredient in some of them.  Mostly it seems it's only me who reacts to it, as the perfume she had was expensive, not cheap and sells ok. It was something with hints of 'wood' in its blurb BTW.

I now buy stuff for her whenever we're killing time in airports and we check it first.  @homer - Might work for you too - it likely isn't 'all scents' just one ingredient.  

Good time to exercise clicking on the ignore button too mate.  I do wonder what is behind accounts like this.  Paid shills..? Sock puppets..? Who knows....

As if anyone here who has held this far is likely to sell now... 

I know it's the diehard types here, and not representative.  I was noting it is assumed this level of pain 'must be capitulation'.  However, it is entirely possible, even likely it will go lower, perhaps shockingly so as you rightly said.  Then there will be a fair while before it turns truly bullish. 

By the middle of next year, it could be pretty quiet in the WO.  Well... except for JJG of course.

Yes, they know about it, and they can see it's dropping like a stone, it's hardly a time for FOMO.  I am afraid I agree with the gentlechap above (and V8) that hasn't really hasn't stunned and shocked us yet.  I have fiat in, but this doesn't feel like the bottom while we're all bantering away and talking of 100K parties.

Sadly, it needs to hurt. I would love it to turn around now but it won't just because I want it to. 

And yes, it can go lower - of course it can.

Yep, who wants to be alone in here with just JJG for company.