Why bet so much?
Because I know for a fact that I can produce a quote of you talking rubbish (trolling, telling lies, spreading rumours, presenting opinion as facts) about AM in the shareholder thread. You can ask any reputable person on this forum to judge the bet. The quote I'll provide will leave no room for doubt so I'm not really bothered who you get as long as they have a good reputation. Let's make it 0.1 BTC then, shall we? I will take the bet, but first we must agree on the person deciding the result of the bet. Also how many quotes can you produce? I would be interested in more than one single quote. You can get anyone who is reputable. I don't care because I've found a comment of yours which is obviously you trolling and you'd have to do some proper mental gymnastics to interpret in any other way. You know that you've been trolling the thread and even admitted it in the Spondoolies thread so I'm not sure why you think I can't find such a comment. Like I said, the site has a mirror so it doesn't even matter if you delete your posts. So, go and find some one with a good reputation. |
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Static conditions, that will never apply. Difficulty will jump in 3 days and there is no immediate mining with the Prismas. So what you presented is only in your fantasy. It can't apply to the real world. So while they are not false, they are not applicable either. It's just an useless projection.
For crying out loud, you're not the brightest bulb are you? The conditions are not meant to be realistic, they're meant to remove all the variability so you can compare miners without having to guess at values. This provides you with base values which can then be modified based on your estimations of things like difficulty change. What length of time are you looking for? I just gave you my projection for the first 2 months of mining.
Given a 1 month head start for the Prismas in which they made 1,764 USD (after power costs), how long would it take SP35s to overtake the Prisma in total mining profits? Show you're working as well. After 60 days of mining, the 2 x SP35s would have made 4.6 * 12 * 60 = 3,312 USD = SPP. Because the Prisma set started mining 1 month earlier, it would have been mining for 3 months and made 4.2 * 14 * 90 = 5,292 USD = AMP. How many days will it take for the condition SPP > AMP to be true? Hint: If you use the numbers above, the gap will only widen because 4.6 * 12 < 4.2 * 14. |
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How do you figure the SP35s are cheaper? The price on 10 Prismas is 14.9BTC or 5960. To that you need to add 5*($45+$60+$3.50*8 + $10) for a DPS-2000BB/breakout/cables/shipping = $665
That's $6625 for 10 Prismas, which unless the SP35's have had a large price drop recently is still cheaper than two of those.
To be fair to RoadStress, I used $180 PSUs in my calculations and the price of bitcoin is fixed at 500 USD/BTC. Also, 2000W wouldn't be enough to run 2 Prismas. I don't know whether those server PSUs have the necessary PCIe cables so I was hesitant to use them in the calculations. Can you provide some links to those products (DPS-2000BB/breakout/cables) so people will know what to look for? |
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All of the highlighted statements are false. The conditions aren't static and there is no immediate mining start. Instead of throwing with useless and fictional numbers like $1,764 USD why not use your energy for some realistic projections. By the time the Prisma miners will ship difficulty will jump 2 times. The next jump is in just 3 days and it's projected to ~19%. For the sake of the argument let's say the next one will be ~15%. That means that the $1,764 will transform to a merely $1,200 USD.
I hope that everyone else notices jimmothy's and your biased projections as AM shareholders!
Are you really as stupid as you sound? They're not false at all. They are the static conditions I chose and the values are irrelevant. It is not meant to be and does not even try to be an accurate representation of the bitcoin network and mining conditions. All it simply does is allow you to compare the different miners on a equal footing without having to guess at the different variables. Also, what biased projections are those? The ones that show the SP35 making the most mining profit per TH per day and reaching break-even the quickest (given that all miner start mining immediately)?  Sure. Under static conditions (since you like to use it) 2xSP35 will not overtake Prisma in monthly mining profits, but it will be the same as 10xAM Prisma miners. The 2xSP35 owner will pay less for them and start mining one month later. The 10xAM Prisma owner will start mining 1 month earlier, but in that one month of head start he will only regain the difference of price compared to the 2xSP35 miners (~1200$). After the first month both solutions will have the same profit per month, except that the AM Prisma owner will need a bigger electricity circuit than the SP35 owner.
That is not an answer to the question I asked. The answer I'm looking for a specific length of time. If you are too stupid to do basic maths, just say so. If not, provide the answer with your working out. As for your 0.1 BTC I will reply you in the dedicated thread, no need to be so desperate.
I don't expect the BTC but that doesn't change the fact that you said you would give me it. Like I've said repeatedly, you're a liar. |
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Hwy Mabsark I think you missed ckolivas post. This is not a speculation thread and the Prisma miners are not available for immediate mining start
My post didn't contain any speculation and is on topic. It also did not claim that Prisma miners are available for immediate delivery. In fact, none of those miners are currently shipping. Your response to it is off topic though as is the this response to you. Like I've said many times now, you deliberately go off topic in an effort to distract peoples attention form what you perceive to be promoting AM while attacking Spondoolies. Thank you for sticking to the subject.
You're welcome. |
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So when will the devices ROI?
Based on static conditions - 300 Ph/s network hash rate, 0.1 USD/kWh, $500 USD/BTC and immediate mining start, AM's new Prisma overtakes the S3+ and closes the gap on the SP35: SP35 costs 4,035 USD inc. PSU + shipping for 6 Th/s at 3.5kW, it would take 147 days to break even, 10 x AM Prisma costs 9,250 USD inc. PSUs + shipping for 14 Th/s at 10.5 kW, it would take 158 days to break even, and S3+ B9 costs 320 USD inc. PSU + shipping for 453 Gh/s at 355W, it would take 173 days to break even. Also, here's how much profit they'd make each day (mining income - power costs): SP35 = 4.6 USD/Th AM Prisma = 4.2 USD/Th S3+ = 4.12 USD/Th I'll leave you to your own estimations with regards to changes in BTC price, changes in difficulty and pre-order waiting times but I will remind you that Prismas will be shipping a full month at least before SP35s and there's no availability date regarding S3+ B10s or S4s. A full Prisma set would make 1,764 USD (after power costs) in 30 days under the static conditions. Here's a question for you RoadStress. Given the 1 month head start for the Prisma, how long would it take for the SP35 to overtake the Prisma in total mining profits? Show you're working as well. Oh yeah, and where's that 0.1 BTC you said you were going to send me.  Edit: A mistake was pointed out where I was using the fixed 500 USD/BTC price for initial purchase costs and break even time, which I've now changed to $400 USD to be more reflective of the current conditions. 10 x AM Prisma costs 7760 USD inc. PSUs + shipping for 14 Th/s at 10.5 kW, it would take 185 days to break even, SP35 costs 4,035 USD inc. PSU + shipping for 6 Th/s at 3.5kW, it would take 198 days to break even, and S3+ B9 costs 282 USD inc. PSU + shipping for 453 Gh/s at 355W, it would take 214 days to break even. Mining Profit/Th/day: SP20 = 3.25 SP35 = 3.4 S3+ = 2.92 AM Tube = 2.1 AM Prisma = 3 |
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Based on static conditions - 300 Ph/s network hash rate, 0.1 USD/kWh, $500 USD/BTC and immediate mining start, AM's new Prisma overtakes the S3+ and closes the gap on the SP35:
SP35 costs 4,035 USD inc. PSU + shipping for 6 Th/s at 3.5kW, it would take 147 days to break even,
10 x AM Prisma costs 9,250 USD inc. PSUs + shipping for 14 Th/s at 10.5 kW, it would take 158 days to break even, and
S3+ B9 costs 320 USD inc. PSU + shipping for 453 Gh/s at 355W, it would take 173 days to break even.
Also, here's how much profit they'd make each day (mining income - power costs):
SP35 = 4.6 USD/Th
AM Prisma = 4.2 USD/Th
S3+ = 4.12 USD/Th
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Looks like this is pre-order and it is shipping october mid? Seems not profitable for me  What part of it suggests it's pre order? The part which says, "Shipping date: 8th October, 2014 to 27th October, 2014". |
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You won't take the bet because we both know for a fact you've been talking crap in the AM thread. And deleting the posts won't help because there's a mirror of the site. Here's an address as requested: 1kLJGFshDxDmnNf7Fv66CUxVXpvU7eeWF.
Let's just say I won't be holding my breath.
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Why bet so much?
Because I know for a fact that I can produce a quote of you talking rubbish (trolling, telling lies, spreading rumours, presenting opinion as facts) about AM in the shareholder thread. You can ask any reputable person on this forum to judge the bet. The quote I'll provide will leave no room for doubt so I'm not really bothered who you get as long as they have a good reputation. Let's make it 0.1 BTC then, shall we? |
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Praising SP-Tech, maybe, but talking rubbish no. Since you refuse to show some examples I am sure that you, as an AM shareholder, have a different way of digesting the reality and the facts when presented to you and that's why you see it as talking rubbish. Until you will present some evidence of talking rubbish your statements are worthless for me.
Put your bitcoin where your mouth is then. Let's have a 1 BTC bet. If I can provide a quote of you talking rubbish about AM in the AM shareholders thread I win and you owe me 1 BTC. If I can't provide such a quote, you win and I owe you 1 BTC. Edit: For the purpose of the bet, talking rubbish is defined as trolling, telling lies, spreading rumours, presenting opinion as facts. |
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Lol, FC looks like Beavis in that photo.  |
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It's not hard. If the chips aren't selling good then the miners using those chips will not sell any better. It's not an assumption, it's a fact! Yes I got the information abut the chips from FC and I gave you the quote that said that chips aren't selling so goo. What else do you want? If you, in your blinded shareholder mind think that the miners using BE200 chips will sell like hot cakes after the bare chips weren't selling then you are just lying yourself.
No, that's not a fact at all. It's an assumption. Best $/Gh and W/GH at that time so I don't see where the problem is.
So you now admit that you were trolling and talking rubbish about competitors in their thread while praising Spondoolies? As always stop telling me about facts from the past. Tell me about the present and the future.
I don't have psychic abilities and as for the present, I've already provided the maths showing that SP20 is poor value compared to the competition. I thought this was the spondoolies thread?
It is, except that I thought it would be fair for everyone to know that an AM shareholder came to this thread praising the AM Tubes, not just a random guy. And instead of just putting it into his sig he tries to discredit me. I wasn't praising AM. In fact, the information I provided showed that the SP35 would be the most valuable miner if all delivery times where immediate, network hash rate was static, BTC price was static and cost of electricity was static. It also showed that the SP20 would be forth, with the S3+ B9 second and an AM Tube in third place. As it stands, the SP20 is just poor value. That's just how it is and nothing you or I say will change that. Only Spondoolies can fix it. |
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I thought the Tubes are using the same BE200 chips that FC/AM is selling. I also thought that it's logical that if chips don't sell good considering there are so many distributors, manufacturers and an open source project the miner called Tube which uses the same chips will not sell good.
Your thoughts and assumptions are not facts yet you continually try to pass them off as facts. This is an example of that. You initially said you got the info directly from FC and you now admit (after being called out on your bullshit) that you just made it up based on your own thoughts and assumptions. Canary as a distributor sold less units than what I had in my SP30 GB. I wouldn't brag with that number if I were him.
Nobody is bragging. You asked for numbers, I provided you with some. Also, Canary's group buy ran for 1 month under very conditions than yours. How long did your group buy run for. How many Spondoolies miners have been sold through your affiliate link in the past month? Also being on a third batch means nothing if you don't know how big are the batches. SP-Tech had 1k SP30 units in August and more in September. If Canary sold 100 units then the total number of the Tubes in the wild must be less than 1000. Not that much of a performance.
Again with your unfounded, illogical assumptions. Please provide some evidence to back them up. Sure, but compare it to the boom of the S3/S4 replies and you will definitely see a difference in popularity. If you have horse glasses and can't see the difference it's your problem, not mine.
More unfounded assumptions. Also, you'll find the term you're looking for is rose-tinted glasses, not horse glasses. If you are too lazy to back up your accusation then they are worthless and it's just your word against mine. I haven't posted shit in the AM thread. I wanted to open a discussion about how would the shareholders think it's possible for AM to gain 20%-30% of the total hashrate. The only replies that I got was just like yours. Angry shareholders complaining that I'm waking them up from their dream where FC provides huge dividends for everyone. But don't worry. You don't have to listen to me, reality will do its job better.
Are you really that stupid? You had a sig proclaiming Spondolies' miners to be the greatest and you were making posts in all the other manufacturers thread talking shit about them. And it's not just your word against mine. By your very own words in that paragraph, there are plenty of people who hold the same opinion of you as I do. You try to paint them as irrational shareholders and yourself as simply interrupting a circle jerk. And yet, in a previous comment here, you admit that you were just trolling them. See, you can't even keep your lies straight. Read above and remember. Only 10 days left and my prediction of no dividends in September will become a FACT.
I've already made a nice profit from my AM shares, so I don't really care. For me, it's a long term investment, not a get-rich quick scheme. How much profit have you made from mining on Spondoolies equipment? |
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And with the $500 exchange rate.
If you forecast a permanently sliding exchange rate, what are you doing holding btc? Because I don't live off bitcoin. More to the point, why are you spending thousands of dollars on pre-orders if you think the bitcoin price is going to continue to fall? |
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You're ignoring the BTC income from selling chips and miners. Just trying to stir some discussion in this thread  . Yes, hopefully, miners (chips) are finding buyers. Good funding for gen4 seems to be crucial - competition is announcing new solutions (though, rests to see if realistic). Time-frame for really successful gen4 deployment seems to shorten. AM sold enough chips in less than a month in April to pay for gen 4 but used the money to fund the 60 Ph/s worth of gen 3 chips as gen 4 wasn't ready then. Given the months of chip sales, Tube sales and self-mining since then, AM likely acquired enough funding for gen 4 long ago. They just have to make sure it's free of major problems and get it out the door as soon as possible. |
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Wisdom's projecting ~18% - is that according to BitcoinCharts? In my experience, Wisdom's been a bit more accurate. I think charts uses a simple moving average while Wisdom uses a first-order expansion or similar based on the 504-moving average
Yeah, that's based on BitcoinCharts. |
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I'm a bit cautious about AM having large btc reserve: a) on the 'saloon' FC talked about negative balances, whatever he meant it's reasonable to assume AM hadn't a lot of btc in mid-July. b) since then the whole network mined around 250k, c) to mine ~60k would require almost 25% Not viable. Of course FC could have been engaged in speculative and highly rewarding transactions.  You're ignoring the BTC income from selling chips and miners. |
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Now go ahead and change the bitcoin price from sub $400 to $500 and the difficulty increase to 5%. Oh look, Tubes break after after 34 days. Cool!
Good luck with the 5% difficulty increase. Good luck with pretending that any fixed percentage difficulty increase is realistic. Also, with bitcoin prices so low, small difficulty increases are more likely than large ones. Edit: The last 10 difficulty increases with oldest first are as follows: 18.10% 12.44% 14.51% 24.93% 3.08% 8.08% 5.30% 20.86% 15.03% 8.75% The next difficulty increase is looking to be around 9.3% at the moment. |
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I filled some numbers into mining calculator and it's true that current ASICminer TUBE with gen3 chips will become obsolete in just one month from now? Do we have like 60Ph of these ? ? ?
Oh, you filled in some numbers on a mining calculator did you? What number did you use for the price of the miners? Let me take a quick guess - the retail price? What number did you use for power costs? 0.15 $/kWh? Now, can you tell me the problem with that scenario? Price of miners : 100$ Power costs : lower end what Friedcat said, so 0.12 $/kWh delivery cost : 0$ setup cost : 0$ maintain cost : 10$/month diff rise : 10% and still you are unable to even break-even that 100bucks, retail price is four times more, any more questions? go ahead : https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculatorNow go ahead and change the bitcoin price from sub $400 to $500 and the difficulty increase to 5%. Oh look, Tubes break after after 34 days. Cool! The point I was making was that you don't have the necessary information to make such concrete declarations and you never will. There are just too many variables to consider. Also, FC didn't say that current power costs are 0.12 $/kWh. 16) Previously our Asicminer farm was mining bitcoins and distributing a weekly dividend, will Asicminer update its present hash rate in the mining farms to account for current difficulty changes and to procure a secondary supply of Bitcoins to adapt for rapid changes in Bitcoin prices?
Yes. But that should be when we replace the farm with BE200 based devices, otherwise it is no point considering the 0.12-0.15$/kwh electricity price we get for our old farms. That's just the electricity price they were getting for their old farms. Says nothing about the new farms. Then we have this: Update
1. Due to the relatively lower interest from individual miners as well as OEM producers, the self mining has re-started from middle of July. We had gain access of cheap electricity and high power capacity. We hope to regain the average hashrate percentage similar to 2013 with this generation of chips.
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