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I think the OP misunderstood the paragraph.
He took it to mean that most people are worried about a possible double-spend attack on bitcoin, and that if that happens, bitcoin will be broken. Ad he thought that was silly because a 51% attack is extremely difficult, and the benefits are far outweighed by the cost.
Of course, I could be wrong.
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considering both I and satoshi has posted on this forum, I would say I have a satoshi number of 1.
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Why are you comparing bitcoin, which is global, to just a single country? It doesn't make sense. Added to that, bitcoin could also be a store of value like gold, taking a % of that market as well. And who knows how many more markets in the future.
I don't think bitcoin will replace fiat anytime soon, if ever. But that doesn't mean bitcoin's value can't increase by a significant amount.
why it doesn't make sense. I am just taking the biggest economy to show you the scale where Bitcoin is. If take global numbers then the situation is even worse (to Bitcoin disadvantage). Bitcoin could easily take a small fraction of the world's market for money/store of value and it would increase by 100-fold. |
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Nice to see a lot of examples of good work ethic and altruism. A bit disappointing is that no one mentioned libertarian stuff. Where all the first-adaptor-anarcho-crypto-liberto-geeks gone? As for charity, the major form suggested is the worst one - give away money to those who doesn't have them. Which in the long run will increase number of needy people. If you pay people for not having money, they will not have money. It becomes a profession. So, my IMO: Agreed. The version I heard goes something like this: Give a man a fish, and he will eat for a day. Give him a fishing rod, and he will trade it for a fish! This is because man is lazy, and he will always hold a hand out as long as there are handouts.
Other than that, I agree with a guy above, I'd like to do some investments/donations to human life extension and other tech research. I strongly believe that donations to create technological abundance is more useful than donations to charity that gives food and clothes to homeless people, for example. It's like giving a man a fish vs teaching a man to fish.
I don't agree with the libertarian stuff though. |
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If you think he would take the time to create a sock puppet a month early and make nearly 200 posts that are completely unrelated to this, maybe.
Besides, I didn't even say he's legit, I just said I'm surprised how everyone is so cynical, in a world where people easily get scammed for billions of dollars every year. It's not like bitcoiners have been any less susceptible to scams either.
I have to admit I didn't even consider the possibility that he's a scammer, though the lack of a response makes it seem likely.
zzzZZZZ being cynical helps you survive in this jungle. I don't see your point that in the world people easily get scammed? Do you really think we don't know this? Because of a thread saying he is from the channel 4 team you instantly believe him on what grounds lol He will get no one even if he is legit we have no proof which is needed You have comprehension issues. I didn't have any point, other than I'm not a shill and I am surprised by how cynical people are. |
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If you think he would take the time to create a sock puppet a month early and make nearly 200 posts that are completely unrelated to this, maybe.
Besides, I didn't even say he's legit, I just said I'm surprised how everyone is so cynical, in a world where people easily get scammed for billions of dollars every year. It's not like bitcoiners have been any less susceptible to scams either.
I have to admit I didn't even consider the possibility that he's a scammer, though the lack of a response makes it seem likely.
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I'm having trouble understanding what you mean.
I mean, you don't go to the store and have them expect you to figure out the price of the product, taxes and exact change by yourself.. you know?
Why would it work any differently with Bitcoin?
If you're doing a friend to friend transaction most wallets tell you the price or you can look up the exchange rate yourself.
For example, what if you were in a Coffee shop, and the cup of coffee costed .000125 BTC The average person would not want to waste time squinting at the decimal places and figuring up how much it actually is. Of course this is just my assumption that ordinary people would not want to do the math in their head all the time. I am decently intelligent and even I have to stop and think about it sometimes. The problem isn't with the decimal places. It's because you're trying to value bitcoin against another currency. If you always used bitcoin, and know that starbucks sells coffee for .000125btc, macdonalds sells coffee for .000120btc, and so on, if you learned to value things in bitcoin, you don't need to do any math. You just intuitively feel how expensive or cheap it is. On the other hand, if you go on vacation and use chinese yuan or japanese yen or something, even though the number of decimals is the same, you still need to do some math in your head to get the USD value or euro value or whatever currency you use. It's about how used to the currency you are, not about the decimals. |
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It makes more sense to compare based on # of bets than days/weeks/months or measure of time.
I'd be interested to know how many times people were able to double their initial bankroll before either quitting or losing it all.
The most I've been able to do is double 27.5 times initial bankroll before going bust. The transition in feeling invincible to a mere mortal was pretty sad lol. I actually withdrew a little more than the initial bankroll before losing, but that's when I started thinking of periodic withdrawals. After doing the math, the odds are still against you long-term.
a lot of what was said on this page can be summed up in two words: Selective Memory. That's all it is. I admit I'm guilty of it as much as the next person. You just gotta understand that your intuition sucks. A personal anecdote: in 2005-2007 I played this game called Kingdom of Loathing. It's a pretty interesting stickman semi texted based mmorpg with lots of references and jokes and stuff. The currency in that game is "meat". Anyway, there's a gambling mini-game within the game, which is essentially 50/50 double or nothing, with a small house cut. Long story short, I managed to make 135,000,000+ meat starting from 70,000 meat, using a modified martingale system. What happened after that, you might ask. Well, I lost it all  . If only I could repeat this with real life money... but I never gamble with real money, except "gambling" by investing in bitcoins. |
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If yes, when?
For the moment no one can predict whether bitcoin will be able to return to the figure $ 1.200 It all depends on the market, that many who buy bitcoin market in large numbers, I think there is a possibility of bitcoin can achieve such a price back. If yes, then I would be rich, lol also don't get people that say this. 1200 is only about 5x the current price, so you'll get a 4x profit. Chances are, you don't have everything in bitcoin, or even the majority of your net worth in bitcoin. So at most bitcoin going to 1200 might increase your networth by 50 or 100%. If increasing by 50 or 100% will make you rich, you're probably already kind of rich. |
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wow, people are a lot more cynical then I thought. Or maybe it's because of the demographics of this forum.
I would want to watch a documentary about bitcoin millionaires. I wouldn't join one if bitcoin goes to the moon and we all become bitcoin millionaires, though.
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I swear we all hit a reset button, for those who got into bitcoin less then $100 congrats.
For those who bought bitcoin back in 2012 at $200, yeah now its back giving us a 2nd chance in my view.
But, I really dont think it`ll hit $1,200 anytime soon if anything I feel like its going the opposite direction. Only because I dont see any great financial events outside from a PR article from coindesk mentioning about twitch using it as a tipping service, which grows the userbase.
The problem with this kind of thinking is, news doesn't go like "we are 5.6% towards completing a killer app for bitcoin" then "we are 8.34% finished with developing another killer use case for bitcoin". We'll only know that a killer app is out when it comes out, it's pretty much a binary thing. Either it's out, and bitcoin explodes, or it isn't. It won't be a gradual thing. So just because you don't hear any news now, it doesn't mean anything. By the time you heard the news, it will be too late. |
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someone pull this thread back up in 2020 for a good laugh.
I don't get if you are implying price will be 1,000,000 or 0 Neither. It'll probably be something like $56,342.54 |
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the site will go bust in no time at all. You're talking a whole digit here. I've played a lot on dice sites and that house edge has usually played a big roll in anytime that I've busted.
Let's take a 1% house edge and a -1% house edge.
1% House Edge on 2x Multiplier:
Under: 49.5
Over: 50.5
-1% House Edge on 2x Multiplier:
Under 50.5
Over: 49.5
That's a whole 2 digit difference, a MASSIVE game changer for the players and casino owner.
Of course, the max profit could easily solve this, but even still it would be easy to spam 10000 bets on 2x and statistically you would be better off compared to the positive house edge.
It wouldn't work.
You seem to not have read the whole thread. We are talking about a small negative house edge. And small here means small as compared to a house edge we see at dice sites in the "wild" (in absolute terms of course). I have mentioned a few times already that I mean an edge in the range of 0.05-0.1% negative. Should I actually have written tiny instead of small? And how are you going to easily spam 10000 bets if there is no auto-betting but time limits are set? Having a time limit and no auto-betting will take away a lot more customers than having a small "negative" house edge would bring in. And of course, both would cause the casino to lose a lot of money. Horrible idea. |
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bitcoin believers are like christians, in that the vast majority never read the white paper (or the bible). And the majority of those who did probably don't fully understand it.
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Didn't read anything past the first page, but this is simply not going to work. If such a casino was made, a person/people with huge bankrolls will easily just come, bid say 10btc per game until they take out all of the money the casino has. The casino wouldn't even last a day. Besides, as a gambler, you can't really "feel" the difference between winning 49.5% of the time or winning 50.5% of the time. Most people would probably just pass it off as a scam. So it obviously won't work. Look at the example of moneypot. You can overcome the house edge of 0.5% if you play smartly. But the website is still in profit as we speak and it's been running for quite some time.
Nope. I just went to their website and read it. If you're a single player, you can't overcome the house edge. Only if you're playing with other people, but then only you can overcome it for yourself. The rest of the players will not be able to. Thus it's not really a "negative house edge". It's still positive. |
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Martingale is just one of many possible strategies of playing casino games. In casino games there is negative expected value, it means that any strategy eventually leads to loss. From this point martingale isn't better or worse that other strategies in general. And IMHO it's incorrect to blame martingale about losses.
Well you cant say that betting everything on 5% chance is a good strategy You can't really say that there *is* a good strategy. They all expect to lose 1% of everything they risk if the house edge is 1%. take your money and run. |
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This is compared to if CKG or moneritos was really pegged to XMR, ie. there's a way to trade it back from the king/devs, then X can pretty much stay constant (minus a % fee for the developers), then your property/CKG/moneritos etc will be able to keep their value.
If you weren't aware, moneritos are pegged to XRM; 1 XRM = 1,000,000 moneritos. The price of gold in-game is fluctuating all the time. If you were to buy gold in-game with your in-game assets, you could then transfer it out of the game into monero. They're pegged one-way, which is meaningless. You can't trade out your moneritos. It's like a game where say a cash shop item costs $15, so the dev says it's worth $15, and proceeds to create 100,000,000 of them, and then says his account is now worth $1.5 Billion. No one has said anything is worth $1.5 billion so you are trolling here. There's no moneritos in the game that are created out of thin air afaik. Are you serious? After everything I've typed, all you can do is ad hominem and red herring? Dude, I said it's LIKE A GAME, that's an example, an example to show a point. I didn't say someone claimed this particular game is worth 1.5 billion. Seriously, it's unnatural how you guys are pretending not to understand this. It's really suspicious. I'm done explaining, I think any intelligent person can make their own decision on this. Unless you guys come up with genuine reasons and points where I am wrong, instead of using obvious red herrings and ad hominem, I'm done. |
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This is compared to if CKG or moneritos was really pegged to XMR, ie. there's a way to trade it back from the king/devs, then X can pretty much stay constant (minus a % fee for the developers), then your property/CKG/moneritos etc will be able to keep their value.
If you weren't aware, moneritos are pegged to XRM; 1 XRM = 1,000,000 moneritos. The price of gold in-game is fluctuating all the time. If you were to buy gold in-game with your in-game assets, you could then transfer it out of the game into monero. They're pegged one-way, which is meaningless. You can't trade out your moneritos. It's like a game where say a cash shop item costs $15, so the dev says it's worth $15, and proceeds to create 100,000,000 of them, and then says his account is now worth $1.5 Billion. |
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I don't get that mentality. Why would the price crash because satoshi is using his bitcoins?
He was the first miner and it's estimated he must have mined between half a million to one and a half million bitcoins. If he chose to dump them he could clear out all the buy orders on every exchange in an instant. Look at the damage the bear whale did by dumping a tiny fraction of the coins Satoshi mined. yeah, if he dumps ALL of his coins, that wouldn't be good. But if he sells 10 bitcoins, it really shouldn't be any different than you selling 10 bitcoins or me selling 10 bitcoins. If satoshi was going to spend any coins he would of by now. I think people would panic if he did spend even ten because spending the rest could be quite disastrous. Disastrous? How so? They were meant to be spent, spending them supports bitcoin. Satoshi didn't design this all and mean for people to not use millions of bitcoins. Yes, but that's irrelevant. It would be catastrophic if someone dumped that amount of coins on an exchange. Look what happens when people dump relatively small amounts in comparison. The price falls drastically. Its basic supply and demand. You clearly did not read the posts you're quoting. |
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Satoshi deserves to eat, buy a house, vacation, etc too. Why shouldn't he be able to spend his money?
If he spends his btc and a crash came, I'd be extremely happy because I can be an early adopter.
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