If you are bringing up positive facts/logic and failing and refusing to denigrate altcoins (aka shitcoins) at every other sentence, then you are putting a spin on shitcoins that they do not deserve, even if you believe that you are being neutral .. whatever that means..



Ok... fair enough


Well that's good. Hopefully, you have learned from your earlier shitcoin dabbling that unreasonably went beyond dabbling.


How would you know that?  You are going based on my signature?  I have some shitcoins, and I probably have had some shitcoins since the beginning of my Bitcoin journey in late 2013.

We should already know that this place (ie thread) is not where we talk about shitcoins, unless we plan to denigrate them quite frequently in the process if we happen to mention them.


So, you believe that there is some value to "diversify" into shitcoins beyond token amounts?  I am not sure if it is a good idea to even ask you about what levels of diversification you believe to be prudent, and let's just say historically, you had limited your divergence into shitcoins to less than 10% of your total "crypto" portfolio, meaning that 90% was in bitcoin, then would you have been better off today than your earlier meanderings into shitcoins?

By the way, for the vast majority of my time in bitcoin, I have not had too many periods that the value of my shitcoins had gone above 1% or 2% of the total value of my crypto (meaning bitcoin plus the various shitcoins).    Some of my "diversification" came from a kind of forced situation with the first bcash, and then I did separate out my bgold (I did a quickie research, and I believe that I separated it out in the 1st quarter of 2018), but I never did cash out those bgold.. so I still have whatever bgold that I had separated out.



Maybe my memory is failing me because I thought that you admitted to getting reckt pretty badly from shitcoins, and then I recall that you had some ongoing dabbling into shitcoins even after saying that you had gotten reckt.... In any event, I don't feel like looking it up, if it is look upable.


I am sure that I know more than some, but I never claimed to be the smartest person in the room ever.. And, there were some institutions dabbling in shitcoins, so they might have different agendas than me.  I would not concede that if some institutions got involved in some shitcoins that they necessarily know more than me in terms of what is good for me to do... or where I should be putting my value.  I don't fuck around with those various scams or invest merely based on others doing it, those are not solid of enough foundational reasons for me to invest into something.


There do seem to be more people who are beginning to understand that ONLY bitcoin has investable foundations, whether we are referring to Saylor, Saifedeen or other people.  I am not sure if Maxi is a proper label, but if you are wanting to use the term maxi in a denigrating way to imply that some people are not thinking as much as you and other shitcoiners, then you are likely off base there.. and I doubt that we really need to battle those shitcoiner arguments here because it is a slippery slope, like I already mentioned a few times.


good.. because this does not seem to be the place for that.


Good for you.


It's not about what I want. It is not on topic here. 


Some people who participate in this thread regularly might be interested, but does not mean that we can bring it up here, except maybe you could provide a link to some other thread in which you are going over the topic or maybe invite members to some private channel or PMs or whatever.  I rarely research into various shitcoins, but I do seem to get quite a bit of exposure to various shitcoins through my various bitcoin travails, even though I am quite usually NOT seeking any of that out.  Every once in a while, I might look into some shitcoin matter more specifically if there happens to be something that grabs my attention.. It's a pretty rare event that I actually voluntarily research into some shitcoin related matter - but it is NOT something that I evade if there might be some need that I feel to look into some matter  For example, about a year ago or so there was some shenanigans about the ethereum issuance and trying to identify how many ethereum exist, and I did a wee bit of looking into that.... just to confirm that the ongoing smokenings and mirrorenings in ethereum are live, well and likely never ending.


What's wrong with that?  It's not like shitcoining is going to go away, so the shitcoiners can do that in other threads or whatever, we do not need that nonsense cluttering up our pure as the snow thread here, do we?

We have enough to deal with just in connection with bitcoin, and even though details of shitcoining going ons are being discussed in other places and in other threads, it is not like we do not end up having to account for some of those matters in this thread, and hopefully, we end up talking about those matters more conclusory rather than getting caught up in the weeds of such ongoing nonsense and distractions.. aka shitcoin talkenings.


Oh?  So now you are suggesting that bitcoin never did provide anything major.. it is just an iteration on other projects that already existed.,. so no real BIG deal to get all excited about, right?

Why are so many of us so excited?  There are plenty of other interesting projects out there that are almost the same as bitcoin, no?


 Yes.. have fun staying poor with that kind of thinking.


 the proof of work in bitcoin and the way that it is iterated is a BIG fucking deal including the almost perfect incentives that are provided in a variety of ways.  So you can poo poo bitcoin's proof of work all that you like in order to show how much smarter you are but in the end, you are likely mostly showing that you just are failing/refusing to "get" what distinguishes bitcoin.  Good luck with such ongoing struggles because it seems that after so much time as a forum member (nearly 2 years more than me), and you are still struggling to figure out how bitcoin is distinguishable.,. struggling and even seeming to battle with it.  That will not likely play out too well on a longer time horizon, but hey maybe you will get lucky in some areas.,. I have my doubts, but whatever, you can play your cards however you believe is best for you and your circumstances.


 I doubt that any of us are sharing all of the details of our finances, but like I said several times in the past there can be a lot of individual circumstances that are shared, but a few variables can end up considerably changing the way that any particular person chooses to allocate... so it is not exactly an objective formula that would determine how to allocate. 

Let me repeat (since this is not a private message) that the individual factors that any person should be considering are:  cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills and abilities to plan, learn, strategize and tweak holdings from time to time which may result in reallocating and/or trading.


Nothing wrong with that, even though it is not really a topic of this thread.
 


You are in the best place to decide your individual circumstances, but sometimes if you go into details about any of your individual circumstances on a public thread, then that may well result in feedback and assessments that differ, perhaps.


I cannot disagree with you here.  Sure it is one thing to make determinations for yourself, but the ability that you might be able to make general or specific recommendations to someone else, then that may depend upon how much time that you are able to spend with them in terms of explaining intricacies or any matter.  Even recommending bitcoin can have quite a few complications, even if you might direct some location for someone to get started.. if that is Swanbitcoin or somewhere else.

I don't disagree with you on any of the substantive points.. and remember that people say all kinds of shit, and it is probably not a bad practice to make some immediate assessments regarding how much validity that you give to the comments of others in order to help to lessen criticisms that you cited them because you agree with them.  Ultimately, your various substantive points, including your further elaboration on what you said earlier do not even contradict my previous posts on the topic.

Why would we (royal we, perhaps?) want to be putting positive spins on various shitcoins especially in these here parts?  Seems like a mostly irrelevant area (surely slippery-slope prone) to be getting into.




Your "keeping an open" mind likely contributed to your getting royally fucked in the path, and so you seem to be unwilling or unable to learn any lessons, and for some reason you believe that investing in some piece of shit like Ethereum has any kind of meaningful long term viability - even though it is just smoke and mirror bullshit that has other smoke and mirror (including a large number of scams) building on top of it.


Well at least you recognize that there is some risk there, but surely, you are able to identify the few supposed gems, right?


Oh gawd...    Now we are going to devolve into details of what makes a good shitcoin not to be shit?



Sure, a lot of shitcoiner get into troubles when they are starting to attempt to compare their shitty project to bitcoin.. and to say bitcoin "historically" did this, this and this, and therefore it is logical that shitcoin x, y or z, could do blah blah blah..

yeah right...    Surely, misplaced attempts at analogies.



There are a lot of ways to attempt to assess bitcoin's historical value, and whether it might have been overpriced or underpriced, but still seems to be a bit of a waste of time if attempting to make some assertions about what some other coin (shitcoin) might or might not do... and even it has a lot of ways of interpreting to plot the prices where bitcoin has been,  where it is at right now and then trying to say that it was over or undervalued at certain points, but even some of those assessments might have some assumptions regarding where bitcoin is going.. even though such assessments could also just make historical assessments based on where bitcoin prices are at this particular time.  

So then the question might concern how any of us might be using such assessments.  Are we trying to figure out our bitcoin allocation versus other assets or are we trying to use that to figure out whether to get into shitcoins and if so, to make assessments regarding how much?

In other words, just say no to alts (aka shitcoins), and let others fuck around with attempting to time that crap including relying on hypening blah blah blah.. nonsense metrics.

Regarding everything going down in the event of a shitcoin correction, who cares?  King daddy bitcoin is not reliant on various shitcoins, even if there sometimes exists a decent amount of symbiotic back and forth between bitcoin, shitcoins and various other assets.  So, sure we can see that some froth might need to be purged from shitcoins, whether that is a correction or whether that is bitcoin pumping and shitcoins staying stagnant or going negative, who knows and who cares?  It could take 50 years for this crap to sort out, and maybe it won't even sort out in 50 years, but those of us who can tell the difference between bitcoin and shitcoins and other asset classes should recognize bitcoin as the place to put decent proportions of our value - even if, from time to time, shitcoins are pumping way greater than bitcoin and we "could have" made money by fucking around with shitcoins. 

Yeah, if you want to fuck around with shitcoins, maybe you can take a certain part of less than 10% and play around with shitcoins.. but don't be taking significant portions of your value out of bitcoin, even if bitcoin might only be going up 2x when shitcoins are going up 10x because with shitcoins there is hardly any way to know how far or even if they are going to pump.


I know some people want to claim being poor when there is less than a 5% drop from the ATH, but that is not the correct level of threshold.

Personally, I believe that a 5% drop from the ATH is the bare minimum, but I am not going to go as far as requiring a 10% drop in BTC price either, because anything greater than 10% rises to the level of pure catastrophe, and might as well just throw in the towel if we get to that point.

By the way, these personal determinations do not require any considerations regarding how high the ATH may have gotten.. whether that might be 6x in 7 months or some other attempt to spin matters positively.  Fuck that.  Better to have some real talk around here, and a 5% drop in BTC prices from the ATH is sufficient to trigger such "real talk."

It seems quite premature to be suggesting that this upcoming halvening is NOT going to be significant and even go so far as to call it "puny" when the fact of the matter remains that the impact of the value of the coins ONLY needs to be around 2x in order for the halvening to have a similar value impact (sure there may well be some other factors, but on the face of it, think about it).**  So, the 2020 halvening had BTC prices bouncing between $7k and $10k at around the time of the halvening, and do we have at least double that value now?  And what is going to be the value of BTC at around the time of the 2024 halvening?  Get a grip peeps, including uie-pooie, d_eddie.   Or am I reading you wrong?

What price do you expect BTC to be around the 2024 halvening?  I surmise that the BTC price around the 2024 halvening is going to be at least $60k.. which would be more than 6x the BTC price around the time of the 2020 halvening.  Would that be significant?  Would that be "puny"?   Here's my "speculation" of an answer in small text... so you do not read my answer before coming up with your own answer... do your own mental, logical and factual based work, peeps.. and don't be lazy fucks....  :   Would that be significant? well, yes.   Would that be "puny"?     not only no.. fuck no. 


**By the way, I will grant you some benefit of the doubt in regards to the required BTC price needing to be more than 2x higher in order for the impact to be higher based on the assessment of the size of the reward to BTC's whole circulating supply... Nonetheless, I am going to still use 2x as a general mental guideline.

That was some of the angles that I was superficially considering in late 2014.  I had already acquired a decent direct stake in bitcoin by late 2014, but my stake in bitcoin was negative in terms of the amount that I invested in and the BTC price (I think that the BTC price was around $400 during that time and my cost per BTC was likely higher than $600 per BTC), and I was thinking that I could take half of my 401k and largely more than double my BTC holdings (and bring down my average cost per BTC too), but have those funds within a self-directed IRA - so not suffer any tax consequences for the management or the moving around of those funds, once they are in such self-directed IRA.

My ultimate conclusion was that I had already acquired a more than sufficient stake in bitcoin, so why put my 401k funds at potential risk - and if BTC goes up anywhere close previous ATHs of $1,163, my BTC investment would provide sufficiently in terms of returns and hedging and of course, I was thinking that there were decent possibilities that BTC go into the $3k to $5k range with $10k as more bullish scenarios that could take many years to play out.

I don't really regret my decision, even though I do see the power of such self-directed optionality, which does still seem quite tempting and probably even more tempting for someone who might have a longer investment time horizon, as compared to my own.


I am a little reluctant to engage on your shitcoinery talk Philip, but seems that you are taking a kind of practical approach to the matter to try to skim profits in a seemingly reasonable way that really structures you to benefit from the volatility of that piece of shit, lock in profits as the doge coin prices goes up and still have some more to sell in the event it goes up even more.. which seems outrageous that it even got over a penny and now it is reaching 14x outrageous..

Anyone who holds onto an asset such as doge (referring to your partner) seems quite deluded and surely a kind of gamble based on ongoing pumpability that could end up drying up at any minute, especially when considering how much lackenings in fundamentals exist with that particular coin.

Regarding your selling ultimately into dollars and BTC, of course, BTC is the better longer term asset, but surely you are likely generating a decent quantity of dollar related bills too that are either somewhat connected to the business (probably the shed could be considered in such direction), and whether your electicity costs are going up, surely that is an ongoing expense in which it is good to have available dollars  but surely to spend the dollars rather than the BTC with considerations of Gresham law principles, even if you might have options to pay in BTC. 

By the way,  any of us who might attempt to increase some of our spending of BTC would likely be considering that we might be spending and replacing or at least taking those BTC from excess BTC that we had acquired - which may well be part of Saylor's recent rationale to considerably increase his likely ongoing BTC expenditures by deciding to pay as certain number of non-employees in BTC (not sure if they have options regarding doing that partially or if it is just something that they have to receive 100% in BTC).. but anyhow, my point is that these kinds of paying in BTC can become way easier to do when there had already been decisions to convert so large of portions of cashflow into BTC.. so when I largely recommend 1% to 10%, and if Saylor/Microstrategy had many examples of way higher allocations into BTC (maybe in the 50% or higher arena), then they become way more justified in terms of their shaving off some of those BTC holdings or putting the BTC holdings to work in terms of satisfying their ongoing operating expenses.

I like him in a lot of ways.


Of course, he has done quite a bit, especially for such a new entrant into the space, including seeming to grasp various core essences of bitcoin and communicating that very well, including having some resonance with individuals and institutions that might have been more difficult to reach by people of less means / connections.


In essence, I have already communicated that I don't agree with the various supercycle theories as being likely but we already know that anything can happen, including unlikely scenarios.. but I doubt that we should be treating long shot theories as if they are the most likely scenarios.. but you can do what you like... so my assertion that Michael can "go fuck himself" is merely a response to that angle... and was kind of funzies to say it like that.  hahahaha.. don't you get the dramatic and funzies nature of such an assertion?


Yes.. I am familiar with each of those guys and I have been hearing such claims for 6 months or more, and I am not even saying that there is NOT probabilities in such theories nor that they do not sound good.  I believe that they are theories of less likely scenarios, and surely each us needs to be prepared for a variety of scenarios, including less likely scenarios.


Yep.. I have heard him (Pysh) on several podcasts and making that exact claim, and many of us were too shit scared to attempt that kind of selling all at the top (or near the top) in the last cycle, and Pysh largely admitted that he got lucky in such last cycle in doing that and part of the luck was due to some of his then ignorance and newbieness to bitcoin as an investment.



I surely am way more prepared for UP than DOWN, too.. so I hardly give any shits on a personal level.  So, we are in a similar boat there, even though you seem to be getting all worked up about the strength of my statement.... hahahahaha.. and that's on you.    


We agree that not ONLY is Saylor a hero, but he is likely to go down in the bitcoin history books as a quite notable character or mover and shaker at a time in which it was helpful to bitcoins momentum and adoption. 

You believe that his hero status (or might we say legend status) removes some of his ideas from being criticized?  Furthermore, when I said that "saylor can go fuck himself" did you not consider that some of the intention of my comment might have been directed at Dabs for idolizing what someone said?



I am going to criticize you right now at this here moment for criticizing me.  You fuck.

What else can I criticize?  You got MOAR of dat criticism of my criticisms?

Mining death spiral claims are hardly even worth responding to.  BTC mining hashrate could get cut by 10.. meaning only have 1/10 the current hashrate and still dwarf any computing power that even comes close to its magnitude.  In other words, reduction in BTC mining hash rate that is anything less than 90% is nearly pure noise in terms of the solidness and security of bitcoin, even though we can still analyze such changes (and many do) in hashing power in order to make other kinds of claims/observations regarding entrants and exits of mining.  One of the amazing recent phenomenons in bitcoin does seem to be that previously unprofitable mining has become considerably profitable so there remains decent incentives for entering into mining or expanding BTC mining capacity.   

Let's see the hashrate cut by 10 before even discussing such baloney mining hashrate in terms of death spiral mumbo jumbo distractions.

Ok.  I apologize for jumping the gun, reading evil intentions into your actions and presuming that I was being brain washed, when I wasn't.

 

Sure, and people who are in those kinds of situations should be investing whatever their cashflow might allow, and not more.  Can we agree on $10 per week?  That gets you about 4.3BTC.. and that is NOT even accounting for micky123 saying that he had 21 BTC at one time, which suggests a whole other dynamic going on, including the fact that he has had some disposible income or he was engaging in deranged gambling which is surely not a recommended strategy whether rich or poor, even though rich can afford it more, but poor people seem to engage in such stupid-ass conduct too.

I understand that there could be some who might not be able to go as high as $10 per week, but still work with me on this.. instead of assuming too many facts that are not even presented by the case of micky123 that were presented.


 Lottery tickets?  Not sure I would characterize bitcoin as a kind of lottery tickets even though bitcoin does seem to have an asymmetric upside potential.. which is a similar, but different concept from "lottery tickets."


 Yes we were,... for a long fucking time.  Snap out of it.


 Well maybe you have learned something over the years?  Perhaps?


$10 a week.. let's try that.  I understand that not everyone has $10 per week, but micky123's assertion that he had 21 BTC at one time does seem to imply pretty damned strongly that he could probably put together $10 per week.. even if he had to try to get smarter during the process of making that sustainable for more than a few weeks.. and perhaps make it sustainable for 7 years or so?  perhaps?  perhaps?
 


You can bet or speculate all that you like.. who fucking cares?  Do they have $10 per week?  Could have they put together $10 per week to be sustainable for the past 7 years?  Then they would have had about 4.3BTC.. go figure?
 


 I could give less than two ratt's asses, even though you are making shit up to make your strawman argument and then to win an argument that you made up.. great job.  You are quite the rhetorician.


I don't hang out in those parts, so I don't really know.. and I am not even sure if it matters very much.. there are a lot of dumbass shitcoiners out there, and if they happen to be on the forum, then so be it.  Maybe they might learn sum kind of thingilie sooner or later? Perhaps?  perhaps?
 


While you seem to be a glass half empty kind of guy anyhow, so I sometimes wonder how you have gotten by this long in your life.
 

I think that you like to argue for the mere sake of it, and to make shit up in order to support some dumbass argument that hardly even relates to the points that I was making in my earlier post.. except perhaps tangentially.

 

Get a grip, eddie not ready.      


 



I am still going to judge someone who had 21 BTC being able to put aside $10 per month for 7 years or longer and that might NOT be over invested.

If you want to describe some circumstances to defend your counter-thesis, then go ahead, be my guest.  I still believe that I made a good point, and I am not failing and refusing to account for potential problematic cashflow areas that some people likely have.


Isn't micky123 making my case for me?  He is not someone who is lacking in disposable income, and sure there are likely cases that are more desperate than micky123's in which some BTC have to be shaved off along the way, but I am also referring going from 21 BTC to less than 1 BTC.. and considering that as a problematic way of treating a BTC investment.  I am sticking to my earlier points, and if people want to give some other facts for the selling of BTC and to justify it, then please, state your case or your hypothetical, which would likely be quite different from the factual circumstances described by micky123.

Saylor can go fuck his lil selfie..


hahahahaha
 

The actual listing (or soon thereafter) could cause a drop, but yeah getting the timing right could be difficult, and if peeps are "expecting a drop" our little fiend does not always want to go along with expectations, amiNOTrite?

'

vroom.. dee bot... put ur chopper asap.. would be nice.  In udder wurds, wake dee fuck up.. you have no rights to sleep.. especially if new ATHs are being touched upon.      


With these images, are you trying to suggest that BTC is grandpa coin?   Your little diggs on bitcoin and your ongoing disgruntledness remains somewhat subliminal, no?

You really believe that there are better (technologically speaking) coins out there, but for some reason you fail/refuse to recognize and appreciate that bitcoin is NOT merely technology - its a paradigm shifting phenomenon that could completely ossify in its current state.. and still blow the fuck away the various material insignificant improvements that you are somewhat subliminally whining would make bitcoin "better".. in fact you better come up with something that is at least 10x better than bitcoin before you even have a chance of displacing a phenomenon whose time has come to disrupt the world and to transfer the wealth from the naysayers (whiners) to the believers and action takers (taking a stake in bitcoin).

You started your BTC forum experience as a miner of litecoin?  So, when did you start buying BTC?  in 2013 or later?  Did you wait until 2021?  hahahaha

By the way, everyone is in BTC profits, even those persons who bought a week ago... that's what ATHs do to BTC HODLer/accumulator peeps.


Huh?

Largely, I have been seeing BTC prices gravitating in the upper end of the BTC price range since about December  2020 when the ATH was breached once again (around 3 years after the previous time that it had been breached).  So, sure, since December 2020, we have had a few BTC price corrections and even a month between ATHs on three occasions, but still many ongoing ATHs along the way - and hardly enough inaction to really get bored or even to believe that something is awry..

Sure peeps get bored and want to read negativity, even into a positive situation, but still this situation continues to be almost too good to be true in terms of how it continues to be happening.. in other words, let's see some Ron Paul "it's happening" memes going on since about December 2020.. believe it or don't.. we have ongoing ccccciiiittttttttteeeeeeee,,,

, and no I do not really buy Phillips assertion of gradual sloping upwards blah blah blah.. but the fact of the matter is that we do have ongoing slopening upwards without really BIG corrections along the way, so far.  A great scenario and the "stability" of BTC prices that peeps be wishing for and that I claim does not exist in bitcoin. but even though I claim stability in BTC prices does not exist - especially during a war, we have been largely experiencing the thing that I ongoingly claim does not exist.  Go figure ur lil selfie.

So, in some sense, you are being misunderstood.. by me?   

In other words, my interpretation of your your "negative" thoughts should be more fairly read as words of inspiration to the "no coiners", "pre-coiners" and the "insufficient quantity of coiners" ? 

I was considering whether it is worth any kind of comment for anyone who has been into BTC nearly as long as me (going by your registration date) to be thinking that it is a good thing to currently have ONLY less than 1 BTC.. or even if we round up to 1 BTC, there seems to be something wrong with such a picture.

1BTC might not be a bad goal for someone who is either just getting into BTC or maybe only been in BTC for a year or two, but for someone who has presumably been in bitcoin for 7 years-ish, we should be concerned about such paltry level of BTC accumulation, no?

I am pretty sure that I told this story before, but I had a girlfriend in 2015-2016 who I introduced to bitcoin, and she started buying BTC around the lower $200s, and she acquired around 17 BTC, so in November 2015, when the BTC price shot up from mid-$200s to $504, she sold all of her BTC for around $350, and she made something like $1,900, so she was quite happy with her decision, and she said that she bought a nice purse with that money.  She was getting kind of nervous when the BTC price went up to $500, and I kept telling her to buy back.  At one point, she agreed that she would buy back at $300, and she would get back the 17 BTC or something like that.

So she was going to manually enter her BTC buy, and for like an hour the BTC price went down to her $300 buy price, and around that time, I sent her a text and asked her if she had bought back, and she said that she was "on the phone" at the time that the price had dropped, but she would buy back on the next dip... and sure she had quite a bit of patience, but the price did not dip to $300 again, and she ended up buying back some BTC around $415.. Maybe it was around 12 BTC or something like that, but for several months in mid to late 2016, she was reminiscing that she used to have 17 BTC, but that she would never be able to reach that level again, and part of her problem was that she had little to no conviction about BTC and she valued her wealth in dollars (or purses), and she would frequently proclaim that there was a need to live in the present and there were some difficulties that she had with delayed gratification. 

I kind of fell out of contact with her, and I am thinking that she surely does not have very many BTC.. maybe she has 1 BTC presently?  but I don't know.  She was not a dumb person, but she did frequently consider that she had abilities to outsmart the market, and I did attempt to impart some longer term ideas upon her that involved BTC accumulation.. but she had some struggles with those accumulation ideas - and maybe she continued to see a bubble or had fears of the BTC price falling so she could not hang onto her BTC through such periods.

I might have even started some her issues because I recall that somewhere in mid-to-late 2015, Circle had changed one of its features to depict account value in dollars rather than BTC, and my mom told me that she had clicked on that button  (I believe that my mom may have had 20 or so BTC at that time, perhaps?), and the BTC price was around $230, and I said "holy fuck.. they tricked you into selling all of your BTC" You better "unclick that button" as soon as possible to get back your BTC, otherwise you are going to get screwed if the BTC price goes shooting up and all your account (that you believe to be in BTC) is in dollars.  My mom followed my suggestion, and my GF said that part of her reason for playing around with converting her whole BTC stash back and forth between BTC and dollars was because I told her about that converting feature that existed on the Circle platform, and we both had laughed when my mom had converted all of her BTC into dollars - kind of implying that we were both smarter than my mom.. hahahahahaha.  Through the years, my mom had proven herself to be quite a bit smarter than that GF because even though she had some trouble getting back up to her all time high holdings of 21 BTC or so (perhaps similar to you, micky123, she still has a pretty decently sized stash, even though I think that she cashed out around 4 BTC in the $14ks in 2018. .and maybe she has been cashing out a few here and there along the way. 

Anyhow, I am having some trouble relating to anyone who has known about bitcoin, and who had been into BTC for 7 years or so to actually have only in the neighborhood of 1 BTC.. even though I do understand that there might be ways of explaining it, it seems to not be a very good example of how to approach this asset class.

Maybe this rendition shows that BTC can rescue even pretty short-sighted and seemingly inept strategies to cause the largely BTC HODLer to still come off as seeming to be close to genius, even if having less than 1/3 of their original BTC stashes.

A kind of balance remains in terms of needs to take some profits along the way and holding onto a sufficient quantity of BTC and surely each of us are going to come to those balancing considerations in different ways, including that if we have something like less than $10k of investment into BTC (if I am getting these facts correct?), but over the years, we are able to take $250k out as cash and we are also still holding onto BTC that exceeds $3million in value, there would be and should be a certain feeling of empowerment and maybe even feelings of fortune to feel that you are and have been playing largely with house money.

Maybe you, dakiller322, have not given enough facts, but it does seem that you have a pretty great return on what appears to have been about a less than $10k investment, unless maybe I am getting your investment quantity wrong, no?


Hybris = hubris?  Is that what you mean, d_eddie?  or did I miss something?

I looked up hybris and I got hybris meaning the same as hubris in ancient Greece.. even though we are not ancient greeks here, are we?  Or you, d_eddie, are trying to lurn us some things?

There sometimes can develop a bit of a delusion when it comes to describing history, so yeah there was a downfall of price in 2014 that got us down into the mid $100s in January 2015, and then almost all of 2015 was flat (or down) in the mid $200s for the most part, and in the end of August 2015, there was even a dip back down to $200 and even through about half of October 2015, we were having some struggles of getting above $250 - so there was not much if any confidence until then end of October/early November to have the price rally to $504 and thereby correct into the $300s and $400s until the end of May 2016....

Of course, there were signs of optimism at the end of 2015, but really the market recovery for even people who may have been engaging in decent DCA practices (and or attempts to buy on dips and HODL) might not have recovered very convincingly until late 2016 or so when BTC prices clearly started getting to $700 and above (even though we did not stay there for too long relatively speaking).


Surely there was a considerable potential to really accumulate BTC during that 2015-ish time, and your (kevin) post goes to show that even in 2015 there was a decent amount of shitcoin distractions, and there was a lot of lacking in confidence in BTC that was likely peaking towards the end of 2015, and the little rally of October/November 2015 did not even bring great confidence since it took until late May 2016 for the BTC price to get back above $500... I certainly gained a decent amount of restored confidence from the October/November 2015 rally and the end of May 2016 rally, yet gosh, I will even say that the August 2016 shenanigans on Bitfinex (with the supposed hackening of 119k BTC) caused additional pessimism, including the FUDsters coming out in great force.

And, maybe in the end, we can look back and say, we should have been accumulating BTC during that time, so there were definitely no exact clear signs that BTC was the right way to go, but surely anyone could have still established a BTC portfolio that was 1% to 10% of the value of their quasi-liquid investments and ended up doing quite well based on really modest and even the most conservative (presuming 1%)of investments into BTC would have ended up performing quite well with BTC being known, even then, to be an asymmetric bet, and so many people failed/refused to even accomplish the bare minimum (again referring to a mere 1% allocation to BTC) to take advantage of the asymmetric bet.


Sure there are ways to frame the timeline in shorter periods - such as going from the 2014 continued downfall in BTC prices through 2015, but still I would still calculate the time period as closer to 3 years in terms of really  having some confidence of being out of the mess - even though clearly in retrospect, we can measure the bullmarket starting from October 2015 and lasting a bit more than 2 years, but we did not really know for sure that we were in a bull market for a considerable time.. and some people took longer than others to come to such a "bull market" assessment.

Similar with the 2018 to 2020 correction.. can really be unclear when the bull market started back up, exactly, but in retrospect, it seems quite apparent by mid-May 2019 that we should have had decent signs that we were in a bull market, even though there was a further dip in March 2020 to cause confusion about that already existing "bull market" status - that continues to be the one that we are in and not really clear about how long such bull market is going to last... but still even though we are in a bull market and have been in a bull market, there have been some people who have both been confused by our status or even feeling that their portfolios were underwater because their investment costs were greater than the BTC price for a decent amount of time  (referring to our continuing to go below $10k and even the uncertainties about supra $10k being sustainable as late as September 2020 during the last challenge (or so it seems) to $10k).



I agree with you, kevin, that using tops to measure where you are at are going to cause your supposed reserves to shrink down to nothing because there was a kind of fail refusal to account for volatility and including accounting for possible bottoms (or that the bottoms might last for a decent amount of time).



Agree on these points.

I suppose that I can leave the subjective portion regarding what "works well" to you and to your own devices, because of course any strategy should be tailored to individual circumstances including both finances and psychology, and so for sure, as a general approach, I recommend buying on the way down and selling on the way up rather than buying on the way up - except, as I mentioned the DCA matter that would be buying all the time no matter the price based on cashflow coming in.. however, to be holding back on investing and then injecting value when the BTC price goes up seems a bit off and even conflicting in terms of attempting to hold money to buy on dips.


buying on the way up is NOT the same thing as buying to replace.. .but whatever.

I had some BTC sales in the mid $58ks that were based on purchasing some services, so I ended up plugging in that value to my system to buy back at $54k or so when my buy back orders were originally set in the $53ks.  I also removed some BTC sell orders around those same prices (I believe in the mid $59ks).  Anyhow, my BTC sales to purchase services caused my BTC buy back orders to have additional buy backs that were $1k higher but removed some of the BTC sales that were otherwise there.  The buy backs have not executed since then because the BTC price went up, but I guess my point is that the sales were largely plugged into my system and actually to create more value in my accounts to be able to set those buy back orders, I removed some buy back orders in the $9ks.  

Seems to me that I am implementing a kind of "replace" theory too, but admittedly it is quite a bit less strong than my "replace" practices in the 2014 to 2016 period.  Back then, I would add additional value to my whole system because I was more concerned about accumulating BTC, so I would always error on the side of accumulating, so if I partook in any sales, then I would go overboard to make sure that I replaced any BTC that I sold.. or even double or triple the amount that I bought back in order to compensate for the amount sold.

Once I got into greater profits and started to psychologically feel that I had accumulated enough BTC or way more than enough BTC, then I became less obsessed about whether I was accumulating more BTC or even concerned about whether I was replacing those BTC exactly, and my above example does show that I am currently plugging in values of sales, but likely my practice is mostly aimed at maintaining the values within my system - and maybe removing some of my lower level buy orders rather than concerns about whether I have enough BTC or not.  So there might even be inclinations of liquidation that are coming through with my actions as well, so practices are likely going to play out quite differently depending on what stage a guy perceives himself to be whether accumulation, maintenance or liquidation.. and those stages are likely NOT exactly absolutes, yet in that regard, even though we have been around BTC a similar amount or time, you seem to be way more in an accumulation framework - and I am in more of a maintenance and even gravitation towards liquidation framework.

I cannot completely judge you based on where you are at because I do not know enough of you personal financial situation to appreciate if you had refused to accumulate enough BTC at earlier stages or merely if you might have been unable to accumulate enough BTC at earlier stages based on cashflow or whatever, and surely I have already disclosed, several times, that I had a pretty damned decent investment portfolio in late 2013 when I got into BTC, so my ability to accumulate between 2013 and 2016 was greatly enhanced by being able to transfer a decent amount of value into BTC in 2014 - and even to largely over accumulate (in terms of my targets of value that I already had in my investment portfolio) in 2015 and 2016.  

So, if you did not have as much value that you could directly inject into BTC in those earlier days that you were into BTC, then sure it makes sense that you would still be in a largely accumulation of BTC phase.  Before 2013, I had spent about 25 years accumulating the investment portfolio that I had by the time late 2013 came about, and even if my accumulation of an investment portfolio was only lowly successful compared to subsequent BTC performance, I still would expect that even a brand new person to BTC in 2013/2014 would still take a decent number of years (likely way less than 25) in order to accumulate an investment portfolio - even if they have the advantages of BTC price appreciation to considerably short-cut some of the relatively long timeline of 25 years of prior non-btc accumulations.


Yes.. of course, if you are in BTC accumulation stage (still) then you would not be ready, yet, to reduce your BTC stash.  


Well if you are posting some of your ideas in a public thread, then anyone, including yours truly, can chime in and to make any previously discussed topic their bees wax... you fuck (nohomo)

By the way, in typing this post, I come to realize some likely reasons why you have been so obsessed about "never selling your BTC" blah blah blah, and even ineptly analyzing my situation based on your own situation is that since you are likely continuing to be so damned steeped in BTC accumulation, you are likely having trouble relating to some folks (including yours truly) who have long transitioned out of BTC accumulation mode, so you are seeming to have some difficulties relating to persons, such as yours truly, who may well not  
have to worry about BTC accumulation and are even starting to gravitate towards liquidation rather than maintenance.. so someone who is in those later stages are starting to be a couple times removed from your own BTC accumulation focused situation.

Sure, no problema, not trying to get to judgie here, and hopefully you and a lot of other BTC accumulators are going to be able to relate to getting to either maintenance or liquidation, and surely, I am hardly even suggesting that any BTC accumulator should be attempting to rush the accumulation process because sometimes attempting to rush matters too much will cause delays or will cause the engagement of too risky of strategies, such as gambling, yet one great thing about bitcoin, even though the cost of purchase continues to go up, there has been some decent advantages for anyone who has been able to accumulate some decent stash at lower levels, even though the current ongoing purchases seem quite expensive, but those earlier purchases will continue to appreciate in value.. so long as you do not get too dumb and try to gamble by selling them, when you have not even yet reached your accumulation targets.

Actually, I am totally NOT against projecting ahead in a wee bit of a gambling kind of way that is still reasonable, and the 208 week moving average is likely going to be around $20k in about 3-6 months, of course if the BTC price moves up higher in a short period of time the 208-week moving average is going to move up quickly too.

I find something a bit disturbing about your locking in a timeline such as 127.2 or 40 years in regard to the perpetual withdrawal seems to be a much better notion.  So, you likely already know the concept (this is for others - public thread, remember.), but you take the value of your BTC stash, and then you figure out your withdrawal rate of 4% in order to figure out a way to withdraw forever without dipping into principle.

So for example, if you believe that you can live off of $3,333 per month, then you acquire $1million in principle, which would be $1million * 4 % = $40k  / 12 = $3,333.

So if you anticipate the BTC bottom to be $20k, then 50 BTC would be enough to generate, $3,333 in monthly income.
 
When I got into bitcoin in late 2013, I was thinking that $3,333 could be a reasonable starting point for a passive income salary, but now I am thinking at least double that.. and I know that some members (such as Biodom) have suggested around 6x that amount. 

Each of us are going to come to differing calculations, and currently, I do prefer the 208-week moving average (withdrawing up to 12% based on such 208-week moving average), which ends up not requiring as much BTC to generate the same income.  $333,333 x 12% = $40k.  So, only 30.3 BTC are required at $11k to add up to $333,333 in value.


Of course, we all know that we would not want to pull the fuck you lever until we are actually confident that we are actually ready.. so on our own terms.


Gosh.. hopefully it is not an all or nothing thing that requires (causes) you to be a slave until your eligible age.


Of course we know that bitcoin gives more options, but sounds like medical could still be a bit of an issue for you.