Of course, you can start at any time.  We still do not have anyone who is making a list of all the push-ups by the members, so each of us is just keeping track on our own in terms of how we want to do these daily push ups.

Surely, I don't advocate for trading in order to build up your BTC holdings, yet if you are in the stage of building up your bitcoin holdings, then the best way to do that is to continue to buy in various ways, whether DCA, lump sum buying and/or buying on dips... so then once you get enough or more than enough BTC, then you can start to sell them as the price goes up... so then there would no longer be goal to have more BTC as the price goes up.

So one of the BIG questions relate to how much BTC (satoshis) is enough and when you can conclude that you have enough and you are in a position in which you can start to feel comfortable to start to sell some of your BTC as the price goes up and/or just on a regular basis as a percentage of your holdings to sell regularly as a source of your main income or to supplement other income sources that you have.

Maybe a formula that I would use to determine if you have enough bitcoin would be to consider what is your annual expenses in the standard of living that you would like to enjoy and multiply that by 25, and if your BTC stash (as measured by the 200-WMA) is within 75% of that amount, then you likely are at the entrance level of having enough which means that you are likely ready to start to employ some kind system in which you are drawing upon your bitcoin stash, whether merely on price rises or maybe you want to just start to withdraw regularly on a monthly basis.. or some other period that is comfortable for you.

Maybe you can list the options?  I did a quick look at the Bitcoinity exchanges for the Euro, and it appears that Kraken has more volume than Bitstamp, and yeah, not very many of us would be excited about using coinbase if there are other options.. https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/exchanges/EUR/30d#rank_desc

 I know for bitcoin Bitstamp is preferred, and it probably would not be a problem to use Bitstamp for the Euro if they are relatively reliable for the Euro (meaning largely reflective of trade volume based price), but we also might need to consider if there might be other options that might be more reflective of BTC prices in any particular currency that we discuss - Euro in this case, yet I see that for the Euro the only option that has more trade volume than Kraken is Coinbase, and Bitstamp is third, so yeah, maybe Coinbase could be acceptable for the Euro.. Does anyone else have any opinions on such topic?

In regards, to any of the other currencies previously listed GBP, CAD and JPY, can you get raw data for those currencies on Bitcoinity?  From your link of explanation in regards to Bitcoinity, I cannot see from where you are getting the raw data - especially when I click on the Export CSV and/or XLXS, all I see is date and some other number, which I presume to be the quantity of BTC traded on that date, but that would not enough for you to generate the trade weighted price for the day based on that information.

Also, are you able to publish both the USD/BTC and the Euro/BTC at the same time and on the same table (side by side)?

Sure.  You might have developed some bad habits, especially getting involved in shitcoins and then trading in and out of them.. so even if you build up a bitcoin portfolio, you might end up reverting to some of your bad habits and your bad ways of thinking.

None of us can fix your situation except for you, and probably, if you figure out some kind of plan and then just focus on it, then if you get your finances in order, then you can become more and more aggressive in your bitcoin accumulation.. but part of the problem is that the first 2-3 years, it can take some time to build up a bitcoin holdings and then to be able to continue to build from there.

Almost everyone has thoughts of being too late, yet you have to consider that right now, there are probably ONLY around 1%.. or maybe a bit more at best of the world's population of normal people who have any kind of stake in bitcoin, so you already have a lot of advantages because you probably have some bitcoin and you are already familiar with some of the dynamics of bitcoin, probably including how to hold bitcoin privately.. and if you don't know some of those kinds of things, you are in a place to be able to learn those kinds of things since you have already shown interest in the space for about 6.5 years.

Another thing when you invest into something like bitcoin, you need to put yourself into a position in which you will not be panicking.. so you can establish both a practice of buying BTC very regularly (something like once a week), and you can also make sure that you have an emergency fund and a reserve fund to serve unevenness in your cashflow, but also to give you abilities to buy more BTC when the price dips.. and if you have been practicing not so great cashflow management, it can take time to both learn about those kinds of skills, but to put them into practice.

We talk about a lot of the ideas in this thread, and I also talk about some of the ideas in my investment ideas threads, yet probably the main points is that you tailor some techniques to your own individual circumstances, and you put them into practice, you learn from your putting them into practice and then you tweak your plan from time to time in order to improve the ways that you are implementing your plan to your own financial and psychological circumstances.

Of course, if you have such strong inclinations to gamble and to get involved in shitcoins because you are trying to speed up the get rich quick process, there could be ways to still pick out one or two shitcoins, but don't invest any more than 10% of your bitcoin size into the totality of your shitcoin investment, and sure it might not be a good idea to retain any involvement in shitcoins, so to completely cut them off, but if you cannot help yourself there might be ways to put pretty strict limits on your shitcoin exposure, so then to contain your gambling tendencies.. but part of the problem of a gambler is that they are tempted to do more and more and more, so their tendencies to do more ends up eating into their capital, rather than building their capital.. which investing into bitcoin would be building capital and it may well take 10 years or more to really build up a bitcoin investment portfolio, yet at the same time, you are still likely going to be far in front of your peers.. since an overwhelming majority of people don't really know what bitcoin is and even if they might think that they know, they have not taken any action to get started investing into it.

We might be mislead into believing that bitcoin adoption is either mature or that the amount of hoarding that is going on with rich people and institutions is causing BTC's price to become unreachable, yet I think that still should inspire normies (like you) to buy and to invest into bitcoin rather than waiting any longer or getting distracted into shitcoins and/or trading (gambling).. .. so even if there are a lot of rich people hoarding bitcoin, we are still in early days and they are likely going to push up the price, but they are likely going to be pushing up the price over a couple of cycles rather than immediately.. even if we also might experience some rapit price appreciation of bitcoin both this year (in 2024) and next year (in 2025).


Generally speaking, shitcoins are in and out kinds of things, so you do not tend to advantage from holding them over the long term.. but yeah you never know, there might be some shitcoins that end up having some longevity. but that still does not mean that it makes any sense to try to figure out which shitcoin is less shitty so that you might get some performance that might largely just be paralleling bitcoin anyhow.. and so your reason that you want to get into shitcoins is to outperform bitcoin, and so yes, that is called gambling rather than investing.. and there are a lot of people who are tempted and distracted into such.. and sometimes it might even work.. but it still probably not worth the amount of stress to try to figure it out and to employ luck rather than sticking with the more solid investment, which is bitcoin... .

So, again, if you are going to fuck around with shitcoins, if you at least limit them to no more than 10% the size of your bitcoin investment size (without cheating about it), then you will at least limit your exposure to them.. but yeah gamblers have difficulties limiting themselves.. so in the end, you are the one who decides your own allocations to shitcoins and/or your willingness to subject yourself to ongoing gambling and largely delusional and distracting ideas.

I probably was overstating my position, and to attempt to explain, since 2015, I largely had assessed myself to have had been in a state of over-accumulation, which allowed me to feel comfortable selling coins without worrying about whether I had enough, yet part of my ongoing problem had been that much of the time I kept the money available for rebuying coins, so largely I had been of the position that I had no treally been injecting new money into bitcoin since 2015 - even though the records are not really clear about whether new money had been coming in, and many times, it is my impression that I have not been injecting new money into my investment, but then in late 2022, my cash reserves had gotten so low that I did end up injecting more money into my cash reserves that were authorized for bitcoin sales.. - especially during that period in which the BTC price was below $20k for several months, yet at the same time when the BTC price returned in to the upper $20k and then even more assurance after October 2023 that our November 2022 bottom of $15,479 was in.. There was going to be no more bottom, so there could be some assurance to pull out the extra money that had gotten inserted into the system on a seemingly temporary emergency basis.

So technically there is still buying with money that is already in the system. .and that would be how it should be preferred, and my net selling of BTC should be greater than my net buying of BTC - even though several run throughs of my sustainable withdrawal system, as shown through bitmover's rendition of it, shows a kind of back testing through the simulation tool that even really aggressive levels of BTC withdrawal is likely going to end up with the dollar values continuing to grow, especially if we measure BTC's value from the 200-WMA.. and that even works through back testing of more recent periods especially something spanning over the last 5 years and a 30% per year withdrawal rate. I could not even come close to those levels of withdrawal which is largely showing that my withdrawal rate that is much smaller than even the more conservative levels... and I have been more into following the rake tool instead of the above linked monthly sustainable withdrawal tool.

Oh, and yeah, thanks for pointing out the glassnode data, and surely we have ideas how people act in theory and maybe sometimes we can see what they are doing in terms of the data that is available, so surely if a lot of guys start to release their coins between $73k and $120k I would be very surprised if enough coins were to be released in order to keep up with the seemingly increased demand that is coming through current BTC spot ETF inflows and the additional ETF inflows that are expected to continue to increase through 2024 and 2025  - and yeah, we could end up being surprised if such BTC spot ETF inflows do not continue to increase and put demand on BTC, so in some sense, we cannot necessarily take the inflows for granted... or even take for granted regarding how many current BTC HODLers are going to be willing to take some or all of their coins out of cold storage in order to sell to Blackrock, et al.

For one, this thread is about bitcoin and not shitcoins, and secondly, DCA does not work with shitcoins because they are not long term investments that have any fundamental and/or long term value.

DCA tends to apply quite well for bitcoin and/or long term investments bacuase it allows you to build your position over many years 4-10 years or longer. 

Of course, if you are still in your accumulation stage, you can supplement your accumulation with buying on dips and also lump sum investing, and so only you can figure out which accumulation methods to apply and when you might consider yourself to no longer be in accumulation stage... and yeah, a lot of newbies might have chances to build their investment into bitcoin over 4-10 years or longer, and they likely end up selling too much too soon and then likely putting themselves into a worse place than if they had just focused on accumulating through the varying buying techniques rather than selling, trading and/or gambling with their investment.. in such a great and powerful (and option providing) asset, such as bitcoin.

hahahahaha

And some of these guys who are shorting might not realize that we are still in no man's land, so the odds are not exactly in their favor to be shorting.. including that when we go through no man's land, yeah maybe we could get various corrections, but they are likely not going to be meaningful, and even if we make it through no man's land, there are limitations to the corrections that are available, and sure they might happen, but it is better to probably go with the trend rather than against it and perhaps start to think more seriously about shorts once we get into the $140k to $180k territory.. whether that is within a few weeks or a few months.. .. but yeah, they get anxious and they don't want to wait that long... and they want to gamble.. and so yeah, maybe it will work and maybe it won't.. I am leaning towards the won't side.. at least until we get a bit above $120k.


Maybe?

I am still thinking that it is pretty much the same.. 3 ups and a down, and so we will just look at how high it goes as we go and at some point it is likely to become unsustainable and we will need a lengthy correction.. but this time with BIGGER players engaged in some of the shenanigans and/or rug pulls or whatever other dramatic news ends up playing out.. when the longer term correction finally comes, and yeah, maybe the longer term correction does not end up going below $120k-ish.. who knows?  It partly depends upon where the top ends up being and how long it might take to get there.. whether it is a medium top in the $240 to $540 range.. or maybe it ends up slightly more bullish in the $540k to $1 million territory or maybe if it gets into the most extreme of the scenarios into the $1 million or more territories, then you know we gotta get some crashing back down from those kinds of price points... especially if it goes up too quickly at some point.. maybe even crashing back down 70% or more from the top to sub $500ks. to sub $300ks or even lower.. which also partially depends on where the top ends up being and how we ended up getting to such top.. in terms of both time and if there might have been some shenanigans on the way up. as well as shenanigans on the way down.. and if we are dealing with money, there are always going to be shenanigans.


Am I going too far?

I know my personal finances don't really rely on such or even give too many shits, but it is kind of difficult to ignore the outrageously limitations in supply in light of our current happenings.

Sure, as BTC price goes up, then quite a few HODLers, and even long term HODLers are going to let go of some (or all) of their coins, but I doubt that the released supply is going to be enough.. especially in the sub $120k territories.. yeah $120k to $180k we are likely going to get some additional releasing of coins from the haves to the have nots, but I still question whether the released coins are going to be enough to satisfy ongoing demand in either 2024 or in 2025.. so it seems even more bullish than usual, while at the same time, there are limitations in regards to how much BTC can pump in any particular cycle.. or at least it seems to be the case... .. so I hate to pin myself down too much, even in what I had been describing what seems to be a kind of base case based on current circumstances and knowns... and I am not buying more BTC.. I have enough and I have more than enough.. so there is that.. and there are likely several guys in this thread who have enough coins too... and who knows how many coins we are going to be releasing along the way. .some of us are gong to be releasing our coins, and I already pretty much have my release schedule already outlined . which does not even end up being very many coins sold.. but still lots of ongoing improvement in the needs to spend more..


Ok.   Hint taken.  I will have to go look for my duck suit equivalent.

Just finished my 37th day.. and I had a "friend" who had visited me within the last days, and she had not visited me since before I began doing the pushups.  So, I was hoping that she might say something about noticing some kind of a change, but she did not say anything... so maybe the physical change is still not sufficiently noticeable - even though I can see and feel the difference, but it might not be enough of an obvious physical difference for another person to really notice.. unless she noticed but she just did not want to say anything..   I am not going to push the topic.. so I just have to wait for some other person who might not have seen me recently.. but then there could some that notice even if they are seeing you on a daily basis... and at some point they start to notice..

Fuck coinbase

and

fuck bitmex.


There is no need to reallocate for the mere sake of reallocation, just because traditional investment advisors make such recommendations (and some of the traditional investment advisors are forced to reallocate on a regular basis - including that some of them are forced to hold 70% government bonds, which truly has been a stupid and/or losing practice in the past several years. but they still make advisements that normies should do the same thing that they are required to do.

there is a great practice of allowing your winners to ride.

For my own investment history, I largely invested 10% into bitcoin by the end of 2014, but then I ended up overinvesting in 2015 to nearly 13.5% because the BTC price was down throughout 2015, and I still continued to buy...so that is how I got up to 13.5% invested into bitcoin, however, now my allocation is close to 90% and that is not because of my investing new value from bitcoin but instead because of it's appreciation relative to all my other investments.

So largely my other investments doubled in the last 10 years, but my bitcoin outpaced them all and so my bitcoin went up around 70x or more.. and so sure I had been shaving off some profits here and there over the last 10 years, but the investment largely was allowed to continue to ride.. and so the total amount that I have in cash is worth about 1.5x the total amount that I invested into BTC... although I still use that cash as working capital, but I can also spend it whenever I like too.. or I can just cash out a bit of bitcoin with a 70x profit at any time, too.. so to me it seems to not be a big deal to just let that the winner (BTC in this case) ride.. mostly.

Of course, since I was overinvested since late 2015, I have been using my rake system (represented in this post), and that is part of the reason that I have a lot of cash on hand, too.. but the cash is still less than 2.5% the size (value) of my BTC holdings.. but it is plenty if I need to draw upon it or to perhaps cash out a bit extra if I need it here and there along the way..

By the way, I recommend ONLY around a 5% to 25% allocation to bitcoin for newbies who are just entering into bitcoin, and surely they have to figure out their allocation, and so yeah, 25% would be on the side of more bullish and aggressive in regards to the bitcoin allocation, and 5% would be towards the side of whimpy... yet at the same time, I personally consider that reallocation is not really necessary, even though people have to figure out their allocation levels based on all of their own individual financial and psychological factors.


Other allocations would traditionally be considered as stocks, bonds, properties, commodities, cash and/or cash equivalents.

You can see how my allocations changed through the years at the bottom of this post.. starting from late 2013 until mid-2022.. I have not yet updated, but probably will update at or near the height of this current cycle rather than when we are largely seeming to be in the middle of this particular cycle (or maybe even early-middle of this cycle).


It is funny that you criticize me for my ongoing selling of BTC ever since $250.. but my allocation went from 13.5% to nearly 90% based merely on BTC price appreciation and inspite of my ongoing and various sells along the way.

I think that my allocation into bitcoin would be even higher if I had not exercised my ongoing sales along the way... and yeah, maybe we are just making all of this shit up.. but it's gotta somehow make sense..

I can hardly imagine in your own scenario how you would ONLY be at 66% to 70% if you had ONLY made 1 big sell and you supposedly allocated 20%, which is 6.5% more than me.

By the way, I am not completely aloof to the idea of buying various things, so there have been some changes in my investments over the last 10 years, but still a lot of whatever had been taken out of bitcoin - including that I probably already taken out quite a bit more than I invested (but who's counting.. not even counting the losses. .those don't really count, right?) .. .. anyhow. .I was kind of not wanting to go up to 90% so early in the cycle.. but what am I supposed to do? sell more and then what? what will I buy with it?  buy some headache?  Yeah, there might be some investment(s) that are not headaches.

You are so distracted on an ongoing basis.  

yes, there may be some value flowing into those other assets (commodities), but they are likely not going to move in terms of percentages like bitcoin will, even if you might possibly be correct about the order of flows, which that is even doubtful to be thinking about order of flows in that kind of way... because billions of dollars of flows into those other assets does not have the same effect as billions of dollars of flow into bitcoin.  In other words it takes way less capital to cause bitcoin to move the same amount.. or even multiples (and or magnitudes) more rapidly than those other assets.

So stop being so ongoingly distracted into largely irrelevant comparisons.


First.  When did you first start getting supposedly interested in actually holding onto bitcoin rather than selling it right away.. probably around 2018/2019 no?  The value your bitcoin should have had already surpassed your wives 401k.   Let me throw out some numbers, and you don't need to correct me (or confirm), but let's say that your wives 401k is worth around $750k.. so then that would generate about $3k per income per month in terms of a 4% withdrawal rate.

Now, if you had been investing into bitcoin (and/or diverting capital over to bitcoin, you could have had accumulated 10 bitcoin and you would already be close to surpassing the value of your wive's 401k.. at least in terms of BTC spot price..

I just like to blame you for failing to focus on accumulation through buying.. rather than what you seem to be doing is shaving off profits on such a regular basis and probably hoping to buy back cheaper, but then you chicken out when the BTC price drops, so instead of buying BTC, you sell your BTC and you buy IBonds, and you still seem to believe that was the correct course for your situation.

Let's just say that instead you had focused on $500 per week into bitcoin since the beginning of 2019 (is that even possible?), then you would have had invested right around $136k and you could have had accumulated 9.4615 BTC (currently valued at $681k) until now, so you would already be very close to surpassing your wive's 401k.

Am I picking on you too much?  I am even giving you the benefit of the doubt that you admit that you screwed up the earlier part of your BTC involvement by not hanging onto enough BTC during your earlier years of your BTC involvement, so I picked a date that I thought might be reasonable..

..but then now on reflection, maybe I am picking too early of a date?  Maybe you did not convert to a supposed BTC accumulator until a later date.  because, just now, I did do a quick look at your post history and holy fucking shit, it seems that you don't seem to have been involved in this WO thread until maybe late 2020 .. so fuck.. that kind of screws up the timeline for being able to accumulate enough coins to catchup to your wive's 401k...

Let me rework the numbers for a conversion into a BTC accumulator starting in late 2020.. Let's go with October 2020.

so we have to remember the time factor when it comes to building a position.. .. but if we are building we need to be building rather than fucking around with selling and trying to buy back cheaper and other distractions that don't involve strict and straight forward ongoing accumulation until we get to enough cornz.

If I consider your conversions in to actually wanting to accumulate and HODL your BTC rather than selling right away, then I would then have to double the weekly contribution, so that if you had been investing $1k per week since October 1, 2020, then you would have had invested $180k, and you currently would have about 6.124 BTC (yes quite a coincidence), but still notably not a bad place to be since it would currently would be worth $441k, which also would put you within site of surpassing your wives 401k within the year rather than needing to get through this whole cycle.

Second:  The other point that you make about surpassing your wife in 2026 makes hardly any sense in terms of current anticipated BTC cycles.

Are you even with the cycle thing?  3 ups and a down.  Currently, we are ONLY in the second up, so only 1 more up then we get a down.  Don't you know dat? dee basics?


Even if you have the right idea about shitcoin's being shit, it still is not a good idea to put your bitcoin at risk to bet against them.  They can pump way longer than any of us can stay solvent, so why put your bitcoin at risk when you have about as close of a thing to a sure bet just longing bitcoin.. the most that you can lose if you long bitcoin (without leverage) is 100% of your investment... and the upside has been really great, and bitcoin's investment thesis does not seem to be getting weaker, even if the magnitude of future pumps may well not be as large as the magnitude of bitcoin's pumps in the last 12 years-ish... but still each of us has to work with what we got.. and if we are just building our capital, then we just have to buy bitcoin and don't get too greedy with leverage. and why fuck around with either shitcoins and/or trading. when bitcoin is such a great investment by its lil selfie..


I still would not want to try to play that angle... it seems like a waste of brainpower and energy and potentially money, if it does not end up playing out that way.

So in that regard, it seems more of a sure bet that bitcoin is going to go up forever Laura rather than shitcoins might not unexpectedly pump for longer than they should and/or at unexpected times.


People do it.. and I am not personally going to get involved either way..  Fuck shitcoins and/or the waste of time of paying any close attention to them.... except maybe just as random entertainment, but nothing that I would want to actually financially and/or psychologically invest in, either direction.. besides just investing into bitcoin and staying focused on bitcoin, which already seems to be an investment  against shitcoins.


Oh gawd...  

Now we are talking about which shitcoin happens to be less shitty.

Give me a break.  

I put your original post (bolded above) back into this discussion, since it seems that: 1) you are overly concerned about your profits and/or your short-term ability to be able to sell bitcoin at a profit, which also the lower that you buy the bitcoin then the more potential that you would be able to sell at a profit.  2) You also seem to believe that trading shitcoins is a good idea to get you more bitcoin.

Both of your ideas seem quite a bit short-sighted, and probably one of the best things that you would be able to do is to get a job or maybe more than one job and earn enough money that you can buy bitcoin and perhaps even buy a lot of bitcoin on a regular basis, and so maybe after 4-6 years, you can reassess if you have gotten enough bitcoin that you are able to have more options... Another thing that you can do is to figure out if you might be able to cut some of your expenses, yet probably more important is figuring out ways to earn more money to be able to buy bitcoin, and I question whether getting involved in shitcoins is a good idea in order to be able to earn more money than you might earn from a regular job or even getting some side job or increasing your hours of work at your current job. 

As a general proposition, if you are busy trying to time the market and waiting for dips or even getting involved in shitcoins you are probably wasting time and/or money.  Perhaps the only exception would be if you are in a location in which salaries (wages) are so low that you would be able to make more money by trading shitcoins than you would make in regular jobs... but you still would need some amount of capital to put at risk when you are doing some of the trading.. and so trading takes a lot of practice, and frequently you will need to use capital (potentially even your bitcoin capital) to be able to make money. which usually would not be a good idea to be putting BTC capital at risk, so then you may well just be creating an illusion of profits than actually how many profits that are actually making through trading shitcoins.   

At the same time, you might be able to make better money by just increasing your salary and/or wages, and increasing your investment into bitcoin on a regular basis no matter what the price of bitcoin might be while you are building your BTC stash.... especially for your first whole cycle in bitcoin and maybe even longer than a whole cycle depending upon if you had been able to bring other capital to bitcoin or if you might be building your bitcoin investment from scratch, meaning that you don't have any other investments.

Now in my writing of this post, I decided to look at your forum profile and registration date, and so I see that you have some kind of alt coin distraction already that you have an altcoin website on there... so you might already be a lost cause in that you do not recognize and/or appreciate the value of bitcoin and so you are fucking around with shitcoins and distracted into them...

so... let me just mention that if you had started investing into bitcoin at $100 per week since your forum registration date, then you would have invested right around $34,200 and you would have had accumulated 2.9473 BTC (current value of $212k, so decently in profits in comparison to the amount invested).  Of course you can adjust the amount to whatever your own budget would have had been over the past 6.5 years, and you can also consider whatever you have been doing in terms of shitcoins and consider whether you are at least performing close to the same or better than a strict BTC accumulation practice that would amount to DCA investing..    I doubt that you have better results, and especially results that are repeatable for other normal people who might not have time to fuck around figuring out which shitcoin to get involved in.


I agree with everything that you are saying Odohu, yet I think that it might be misleading to suggest that an emergency fund should be used for regular variations in income, which maybe if we might be thinking about emergency fund as also covering our reserves and our monthly float, so we likely would not be taking from our emergency fund to invest in bitcoin, but we may well be taking from our reserves... .. And the overall idea of investing into bitcoin regularly remains important for beginners because it can take such a long time to build up the size of your bitcoin stash, and so we have to spend years and years and years building up our stash, so then maybe after a whole cycle, or maybe even two cycles, we might start to feel that we have more options since we at least have our bitcoin stash built up and yeah maybe it cost us more to build it up than we could have gotten lucky and bought on fewer dips... but there is hardly any way to know how much to hold back for buying on dips, so we are likely better off to just be consistent, persistent and ongoing in our stacking of sats until at some point the size of our BTC stash and it's dollar value compared to other assets that we have and our annual income (or our expenses) is going to help to inform us to the extent to which we might want to start to switch away from a strict ongoing BTC accumulation practice and into a bit more of a modified BTC accumulation practice.

I am starting to think $120k to $180k for 2024 - based on currently known dynamics and trends from ongoing ETF demand coupled with the halvening. (which is 2x to 3x) from $60k

Thus perhaps another 2x to 3x from the 2024 numbers for 2025 based on sheer momentum that has historically tended to go along with the cycles - which gives us $240k to $540k for 2025. 

Of course, my numbers are surely not anticipating anything close to straight up so there will probably be 4 or more corrections of 30% or more that might even last several weeks each time, and there could be something like 20 or more 10-15% or more corrections.

That would be the base-case scenario for price predictions, which surely means we could over or under perform, but we might have to revisit each leg along the way in order to consider if anything has really changed.  As far as personal finances, stick with the 200-WMA rather than getting worked up about spot price, yet for 2024 and perhaps even 2025, I don't expect any corrections to get below within 20% above the 200-WMA - and if there is any correction that goes that low it would be a spike rather than anything lasting.

My upper scenarios would still be similar to my chart from 2021 which would probably have the top number of $2 million plus for this cycle at less then 0.5% odds.


They probably got their maths and sciences from proudhon, which means they need to reverse it (do the exact opposite) for the numbers to actually make sense.  In other words, change the negative to a positive.. which means 2x (at a bare minimum).

The only way to prepare for UP is to have some satoshis, so if someone is new to bitcoin, the first thing they should do is buy some satoshis.  Waiting does not prepare them for up..


King daddy prices do not follow hashing power and/or mining costs. .. so mining costs are almost irrelevant in terms of determining whether the BTC price is overexuberant or not. 

For example if the BTC price moves up faster than buying demand can keep up, then that could be considered overexuberant.

So for example about two weeks ago when the BTC price went up from $52k to $64k in a matter of about 50 hours. That was a bit overly exuberant, so the correction from that was somewhat anticipated.. and yeah, we have other examples when the BTC price moves up faster than the buying support can keep up... so then we get a correction. and the downward manipulators will likely try to push it down as far as they can and keep it there as long as they can.. but they have not been having much luck with that since October. and maybe even worse luck with that since a couple of weeks ago when we entered into noman's land.. so even when we entered into noman's land with guns ablazing, there have been a decent number of relatively good sized corrections that have been allowing the buying to keep up... and yeah I cannot have any kind of certainty if we will completely get through noman's land without any major correction (such as greater than 20-30% and/or lasting, but it seems that the odds are slightly more in favor of UPpity in zones like this... and it does not have anything to do with hashing power.. The miners follow price like lil doggies following their owner when it is time to eat.

I am not sure if Paintbrush will help because I am talking about the same categories for the simulator. 

% withdrawal, stack size and start date.

In other words, the simulator should run separately from the current.. authorized withdrawal amount.

Edited: O.k.  Below I added a paintbrush example.

Don't get me wrong.  I like the information that is being provided, and I can still figure out both historical and future projection matters because I know what I am looking for, but there can be a bit of confusion for a new person coming to the tool regarding when we are projecting a sustainable withdrawal rate from here into the future to provide an authorized amount to withdraw versus if we are going to project from the past to the present through the simulator.

So for example, if we use $2 million as our default entry-level fuck you status, then right now, I can look at the tool, and I can see that today it takes 62.6 BTC in order to be at FU status (based on the 200-WMA valuation).  However, on June 1, 2019, I needed 537 BTC in order to be at FU status in terms of dollar value and the 200-WMA on that date.

As the below image shows if I want to back test the tool, then the 537 can go into the tool and it shows that withdrawing at the most aggressive rate of 30% annually will reduce the stash down to 124 by today.  This analysis works for someone who is looking at himself having a larger stack in the past and spending down to his current BTC stack size.. but if we currently have not yet reached our fuck you status or close to our fuck you status, we should be forward looking and not backward looking. even though the backward looking tool provides valid information.. to see how a person might have spent his stash down. but it does not do anything to tell us how many BTC we need right now.

Many of us who are still building our BTC stack size are considering how many BTC that we need now or into the future in order to be able to start to use the tool, to start withdrawing under the parameters of the tool and potentially to keep our BTC stacks sustainable in terms of their maintaining their dollar value in order that we can continue to withdraw without depleting our principle, in terms of the dollar value. 

The tool does not help us to backload our current stash in terms of BTC value because that question is mostly irrelevant.. our current BTC stash is too small in order to work in the past, but our current stash will work into the future as long as we have 62.6 BTC now, when we needed to have 537 BTC on June 1, 2019 in order to be in the same place.

So yeah, if we are going to look up the history, then we can put the equivalent number of BTC into the stash in order to use our fuck you status dollar value, but we should be putting that into the simulator side with the 2019 date and not into the current date if we were going to project forward from here versus projecting from the past to here, since the current date only projects from here forward and the stash sizes would be different.

Ok.. here is a Paintbrush illustration that shows examples of separate and independent inputs for each of areas... note an ability to put a different stash size and withdrawal rate added to the simulator input area.

I don't disagree with anything that you are saying in regards to bitcoin first and fuck shitcoins and even that certain kinds of investment presumptions do not apply to shitcoins as they apply to bitcoin, yet the 9 factors that I highlight for individuals to consider in regards to their investment approach largely meant to broadly address concepts of personal finances, skills and psychology in the area, so they are very general.. and there are a lot of places in a lot of my posts that I talk about bitcoin first and fuck shitcoins and all of that.  So I question whether there would be any necessity to say something like: "** these 9 factors apply to bitcoin and not to shitcoins.".... Of course, there likely would need to be an explanation regarding why they apply to bitcoin and not to shitcoins (in terms of bitcoin having fundamental long term value and shitcoins don't tend to have that - absent some kind of way to figure out that some shitcoin actually does have some kind of investment case, besides pump and dump and already being correlated with bitcoin  ... as a copy cat, affinity scam.. or just that their price movement correlates with bitcoin - apart from various pump and dump marketing that they might achieve from time to time).

Sometimes it can be better to just focus on what bitcoin is rather than even talking about shitcoins and/or saying that bitcoin is not a shitcoin, yet there are so many people out there who have hardly any clue about what bitcoin is and they just presume they are all either the same or very similar, and that is part of the reason that some people  cannot even bring themselves to say the word bitcoin.. so they talk about crypto. as if there were even such a specific thing as crypto that any of us could buy and/or invest into.

I just did it, and it worked for me.  Thanks.  It seems to save the percentage withdrawal, portfolio size and the date and it seems to always check the box "use this date", whether the "use this date" box was checked in the original data or not.  I don't find that to be problematic, and I consider the share link to be able to make some kind of a point about data as of a specific date and then to share that... so we are adding utility through these kinds of features.

I do still contend for the reasons that I had outlined earlier that there should be a separate input area for the back-testing data (referred to as simulation) versus the current data (in the top).

Yet even with the shared data as of today, the share button does allow us to describe some sustainable withdrawal situation and then to proclaim that the tool shows that even with the most aggressive withdrawal of 30% starting from June 2019 would have had retained it's dollar value.

So again, see my example, of starting out at fuck you status of $2 million on June 1, 2019 (which would have had been 537 BTC), and then after nearly 5 years of withdrawing at 30% per year (on a twice a month basis), nearly $9.4 million would have had been withdrawn, and the remaining BTC stash as of today would have still been nearly 126.4 BTC, and we would have to enter that separately to see it's worth more than $4 million in terms of the 200-WMA (and more than $9 million spot price right now)

Of course, past performance does not equal future results, so that would be part of the justification to be careful in terms of ongoing employment of aggressive withdrawal strategies.. but surely each person has to figure out what works for him/her in terms of timing when to start withdrawing BTC.  Also using the feature of advance withdrawal could contribute towards a withdrawing too many BTC too soon.

I am glad that you were able to figure out a way to run the script and to merge data sets.  It might be confusing to call Yefi the source of the data, even though, you are using his last table in which he indicates that bitcoincharts - Kraken Euro/BTC is the source of the data... .. but it is good that you have pointed out that the data is merged, yet there might be a more source-specific way of describing it - since Yefi would most likely not claim to exactly be the source, but just a conduit.


I am sure many of us (including members who might read but not post here) are happy with what you have been able to do so far, even though we do tend to have a lot of dollar/BTC pair focused members.. but it's nice to have some other currency pair in there that might help us to better understand the way bitcoin is exchanging against the value of at least the Euro.. and maybe some members might specifically be affected by that particular exchange rate.... and yeah, you never know, maybe some data could be found (or revived) in regards to other exchange rates...

The number of shorts that are outstanding at any one time remains a moving target, since they can pull their shorts at any time, and that is part of the motivation when the price moves very quickly - to catch several of the shorts prior to their ability to pull them.


Most days it hurts me too.  Most of the time, I am not exactly wanting to do it.. but I know it is for my own good.. and it is also a kind of camaraderie thing. which surely is nice to know that several other guys are suffering in similar ways all around the world. and in connection to our contemplations and expectations of number go up.

Personally, I think $100k remains an intermediary goal, and surely many of us thought that it could be around the top of the last cycle, which we know ended up falling short - including some folks consider the lazer eyes to be related to number go up, and I don't wear my lazer eyes for that reason, but instead I wear my lazer eyes as a way of communicating the idea of not getting distracted and to keep your eyes on the prize.. which is bitcoin..

I am starting to think that another intermediate pausing zone is $120k to $180k for this year.. and then perhaps $240k to $540k for 2025.. as a kind of base case idea of where we might be going... yet again, who knows.. those are kind of rough ideas that could end up being overshot or undershot..


I presume most people are not faking it, even though there could be some fakers... ..which for me is so what?  Let them fake it, but I hardly see what good it does, unless they are just wanting to receive a merit or something like that..


I do find it easier when I am in a location by myself.. but if there are people around, I have to try to find a private space to do my pushups. .and to kind of sneak them in before anyone notices or might walk in on me if I am in a separate room doing them.


It is surprising how the BTC price has gone pretty much straight up during the period of the challenge and right around 70% higher since the start of this thread, yet I am thinking that there were already some guys doing pushups before this thread started (in terms of the challenge being out there).. I cannot recall why I started my pushups one day before this thread started, and I think it was because some members (including OgNasty) had already been posting about it in the WO thread, so yeah, it is way better to have this separate thread to mostly hone in on this topic. and to keep it as a kind of speculation (which seems a stretch.. but no harm no foul, right?)



That's an interesting point regarding lying about pushups and/or lying about portfolio size.

Maybe they are similar?  - though this whole forum is about bitcoin - and yeah there is allowance for other topics - and in regards, to bitcoin, I think that it has always been acceptable to talk about your portfolio in terms of hypotheticals rather than disclosing your actual holdings, even though some members have been fairly loose lipped with their specifics.  I surely say a lot about my own specifics, yet surely many times I also disclaim that the actual details may or may not be true and may or may not reflect anyone in the real world that I know.  

So frequently when talking about bitcoin, it is good to provide some frameworks that might reflect some kind of person that might be a somewhat middle of the road normie... or maybe someone who had a kind of demographics, while at the same time, in the end, if any of us are actually considering ourselves to be building our bitcoin portfolio, we still need to consider various tools for building and how realistic they might be in terms of our own financial and psychological circumstances.

Of course, pushups relates to health... and so there could be some motivations in regards to being deceptive regarding how much strength and/or health a person might have.

Day 37 for me.  My tentative thinking is that I will try to continue with 5 sessions per day, and I am thinking that if I need a break, then I will lower the number of pushups per session rather than lowering the number of sessions... yet I suppose there is flexibility either way... and maybe there could be some value to have some lighter days... and probably the greatest danger for any of us doing either many sessions or many pushups per session would be if any of us might start to feel any repetitive stress type injuries.. which I think comes from pushing ourselves too much, and if we have lighter days or lighter sessions, then we likely would reduce the likelihood of any repetitive stress type injuries.

OgNasty's above point about having a day that is already filled with a lot of physical activity - those surely could be days to have lighter days, but yeah, each of us have our systems in place... and I am surely not strictly sticking with 100 pushups per day, since my last two weeks-ish, I have had days ranging between 125 pushups and 195 pushups... 195 is the most that I have done in any one day, so far.

Everyone should be able to know the basics of his own finances, and of course the more that you invest into something like bitcoin, and if you want to attempt to be aggressive in your bitcoin, investment, then you are going to need to get in touch with learning better each of the 9 factors - each one has several subcomponents that we can build in any direction yet at the same time, we might not necessarily know some of the various facets and maybe how much we have analyzed them.

Some people don't want to analyze anything and claim to just shoot from their feelings or their intuitions, so yeah, there might be some folks who don't consider themselves to be analyzing, but they still are likely to have knowledge regarding where they are at in regards to the 9 factors and some of the ways that the 9 factors can by micro-analyzed...

And for sure, don't get me wrong about knowing the 9 factors since I suggest that it is better to just get involved and get started in bitcoin as soon as possible, and you can figure out where you personally sit with each of the 9 factors as you go, and with the passage of time.


Some people need a "friend in bitcoin" in order to introduce them to it and to be able to bounce ideas, and surely there are a lot of people who might think that they know bitcoin because they heard the word, yet they might not really understand bitcoin very well until they spend some time studying it, maybe staring with 10 hours and then 100 hours and then 500 hours and then 1,000 hours and then more, and so the more that they spend around bitcoin, then the more they will likely develop better ideas about it.  Surely there can be issues of misinformation and disinformation, so it might not always be clear if they are getting good information, and so in that regard, people are responsible for the development of their own critical thinking skills and also making sure that they are investing rather than gambling. even though people are free to do whatever they like, including gambling, even though it is likely better to be an investor than either a trader or a gambler, because investing does not take as many skills and/or luck like gambling and trading, and there are likely ways to make sure that you hedge yourself and allocate reasonably when you are investing rather than gambling.


It sounds like you have it all figured out.  Good luck with figuring out the top of the market and actually being able to buy back lower than you sold and also good luck with actually building something meaningful, since you probably don't even seem to understand what bitcoin is or the value of focusing on accumulation by buying rather than fucking around with trying to time the market. Sure, you might get lucky, but the odds are not exactly with you when you fuck around by selling the most pristine asset in the world and presume that you will be able to buy back lower and/or that you will be better off by trading rather than accumulating until you reach accumulation and/or over-accumulation status.

But, yeah of course, do what you like.  It is completely your choice how you manage your BTC accumulation.


I would not presume to be able to make profits or to be better off by trading.


You can consider yourself by the goals that you create for yourself, and question whether you consider that selling is a good way to accumulate more BTC if you are saying that you don't have enough... . and you are free to do whatever you like in terms if you believe that selling is a way to accumulate more BTC..  You might end up being correct in your decision. That is your choice if you believe you know which way the BTC price is going to go and if you are able to sell in such a way that allows you to buy back more at a cheaper price.

By the way there are a lot of previous bitcoiners who have screwed themselves financially and psychologically by selling too many coins too soon and then sometimes ending up with no coins or just frustrating themselves with their trying to figure things out when likely the main thing to figure out is how to continuously stack sats until you have enough or more than enough, then it will become more clear what to do, but it can take 10 years or longer for any investor to get to a point that he has built up his portfolio and it starts to make sense to start to incorporate sales into the mix of how he is managing his BTC holdings and/or any other kind of investments that he has.

There are also alot of examples of guys who have way more bitcoin than other guys, even though there cost per bitcoin is way higher than the other guys, but the main idea is that they may well have 2x or 3x more bitcoin, which in the end, we can see that it is likely way better to be a guy who has more bitcoin rather than fewer bitcoin when it comes to having options to start to sell some of his bitcoin when the prices are going up.


When I say hold bitcoin for 10 years or more, I am not talking about myself.  I am talking about guys brand new to bitcoin and they don't seem to know what the fuck they are doing.  The think that they are going to trade bitcoin in order to build up their bitcoin, and that is not how you do it.  When I came to bitcoin in late 2013, I already had been investing for more than 20 years, so I had already built up a pretty decently-sized traditional investment portfolio, so I was looking for something to add to my investment portfolio that was kind of a hedge against the dollar. so I purposefully thought that bitcoin was going to fit into my already existing investment portfolio.  Initially I gave myself a budget to accumulate for 6 months, and then after the first six months I largely extended my same budget for another 6 months.  After that first year, I reassessed again, and I concluded that I had gotten close to 10% of my overall investment portfolio into bitcoin, so I thought that was a pretty good place to be, and so I started to consider that I had reached my bitcoin accumulation investment target, and that was at the end of 2014... but then the whole of 2015 the bitcoin prices stayed around the mid $200s for most of the year, and even though I was having some cashflow issues in that year, I continued to modestly accumulate bitcoin through 2015, and towards the middle or end of 2015, I started to consider that I had overly accumulated into bitcoin because I had gotten my holdings up to around 13.5% (when my target was only 10%)...

So I figured out strategies to just try to sell on the way up and to buy when the price dips, but to largely consider that I was ONLY going to sell no more than the extra 3.5% that I had accumulated, so largely I have been selling on the way up since 2015, and I never really ever depleted the extra of my BTC holdings, so I have pretty much considered my holdings to be in a state of overaccumulation since 2015.. and currently my BTC is close to 90% of my overall investment portfolio., and the main reason is due to bitcoin out performing all other assets.  You can see my allocations  and the timeline in this post.


You can do what you like.  That sounds dumb and short-sighted.  

Merely because someone holds value in an asset does not necessarily mean that he is suffering.  

At a certain point the investment can pay for your whole life style and even beyond your own standard of living without your having to work... but you have to get there first, and so yeah, you can keep working and having fun and never really building up an investment portfolio. That's your choice.

If you look at my post about the effects of compounding, you might be able to better understand and appreciate how compounding works, and so recognize and appreciate that bitcoin has largely compounded more than 256 times since the days that it was $250 in 2015.. .. so if you cash out your profits a lot along the way so that you can "enjoy life" then you likely will continue to live within mediocre means rather than being able to really bank upon the power of your investment.  At the same time, you do not necessarily need to hold onto all of your investment since 2015 when it was 250 in order to experience the compounding effects, but you have to have some ability to defer gratification and to build until you get to such a point.

So don't presume that I have not been able to spend a lot of money since 2015 merely based on the fact that I still have a large portion of my coins.. because there are ways to just cash out very small amounts of coins, but since they had appreciated so much, cashing them out does not have much of an affect on the size of the BTC holdings..

and again, from my point of view you have to get to a point of sufficient accumulation and/or overaccumulation before your plans to be cashing out parts of your bitcoin holding starts to make sense.. because if you are cashing out before you reached such point, then you are likely never going to get to a point of overaccumulation until you change your mindset and how you treat your investment into bitcoin.

Again.. do what you like.  It is your choice.  The bitcoin path is filled with a bunch of guys who say that they wished that they would not have sold so many of their coins because they are never going to be able to accumulate back the amount that they sold.  

And there are also those of us who have way more coins than we would ever be able to accumulate if we were to have to start over in our accumulation journey.. some of us have a much smaller stack than we started with, but we still have figured out various ways to rake profits and/or to engage in sustainable withdrawal of our BTC holdings on a regular basis... yet again, the key to starting such journey is to accumulate enough coins first and to overaccumulate, and it seems to me that the way to accumulate and overaccumulate is by buying coins. not by selling coins.


You can establish whatever might be your entry-level fuck you status.  I use $2 million as an example of default entry-level fuck you status in my chart, and I use that amount because it used to be $1 million prior to March 2020, and now I consider it to be $2 million, but you can figure out the amount that works for you, and you can see that the number of bitcoins that are required to get to that level and then to be able to shoot to accumulate an amount in which your entry-level fuck you status crosses over into the number of coins that you have, and of course, the number of coins that it takes to reach that level has been going down with the passage of time.

Your ability to be financially free could be ONLY with bitcoin or it could be with bitcoin and other assets that you might own.. You have to figure out what works for you.


We are not talking about shitcoins here.  Fuck crypto, and/or shitcoins.



Oh?  Great. at least to seem to know that we are talking about bitcoin.

We entered no man's land at $55k..and it probably lasts until about $82k-ish... give or take a couple k..

Sure, this would be called price discovery (and yeah probably in that regard the new frontier of places not yet explored) since all time highs are being reached.. and hard to even come close to proclaiming that we are approaching either blow off top territory or even over exuberance.. yet.. .. but yeah, if we go to $90k in the next 12 to 36 hours, I, personally, would consider that to be over exuberance... each person likely has their own definition and that's why some people are still waiting for a 50% correction.