These regular forecasts will be based on all orders in the Bitstamp order book. I will track accuracy based on the percentages given and the market movement after the prediction. For purposes of tracking profitability of the calls, I will assume we started with $1 and invested it completely based on the probability. If I show a 75% probability of going up and 25% going down, then the full amount of the virtual account is invested 75% long and 25% short. This effectively means the account is flat if the probabilities are 50% up and 50% down. |
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Current price: $455.40
Forecast until my next post:
76.3% probability of going up.
23.7% probability of going down.
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Current price: $453.00
Forecast until my next post:
60.5% probability of going up.
39.5% probability of going down.
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These forecasts will be based on all orders in the Bitstamp order book.
I will track profitability by showing profits for 5 systems using these signals, starting at USD$1.00:
1) Holding 100% of the account long forever.
2) Trading 100% of the account long or short depending on which probability is greater than 50%.
3) Same as #2 but shorting is not allowed. Will go flat instead of short.
4) Trading 100% of the account long (up > 66.6%), short (down > 66.6%), or flat (neither is > 66.6%).
5) Same as #4 but shorting is not allowed. Will go flat instead of short.
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First forecast:
Current price: $448.69
Forecast until my next post:
81.9% probability of going up.
18.1% probability of going down.
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What you want is M3, not M2. The Federal Reserve ceased publication of M3 on March 23, 2006. Love the transparency...
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look at the stealthy 1 BTC multiple buys at huobi, it's funny.
Lots of 1 BTC buys on Huobi. Lots of 1 BTC sells on Bitstamp. Net result? Movement of fiat from Huobi to Bitstamp. |
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Is it not obvious that without FRESH FIAT (I think I am going to change my user name to this) that these markets cannot go up? Fresh fiat is one way for the market to go up. But it's not the only way. Every time someone sells, they may buy back at a higher price. The guy he sold to may also be buying back at a higher price. The "don't want to miss the train" can cause a great deal of this. To get ever higher highs without new fiat, the market must sell more rationally than it buys. The process of unwinding positions must move the price less than the process of opening long positions. |
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For the first time since December 2013, we are showing green on the Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-Day Chart MACD. This is huge. The bear market of the last 4.8 months is over. The bull market has just begun.  It hasn't closed yet. We were showing green a couple weeks ago, but it switched back over to red following some more China FUD. Green locked in. First time since December. Now on to the 1-week MACD! |
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An upcoming surveillance hub monitoring all investment transactions in real-time will allow the National Security Agency unparalleled ability to manipulate the stock market. http://www.infowars.com/nsa-to-control-the-stock-market/----- It's nice to know we have an alternative to Wall Street. |
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We will watch. The end of that candle is tomorrow night. But breaching into green territory twice is still a good indicator of an end to the bear run. It is increasingly weak.
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For the first time since December 2013, we are showing green on the Bitstamp BTC/USD 3-Day Chart MACD. This is huge. The bear market of the last 4.8 months is over. The bull market has just begun. |
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Please dont post about TA if you dont know what you are doing.  If you have disagreement with something I'm stating, please let me know. I've been using TA on securities, options, and futures for the last 20 years now. |
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I like to plot all of the MACDs and EMAs on a chart and judge the viability of a short term trade by how close the EMAs of the longer terms are. If the longer term MACDs are against me and their EMAs are too close, then the trade is too risky.
Based on the 12H, 1D, and 3D charts, I see the max that the breakout could possibly go is $440-$450, and right now the price is at $430. A possible $10-$20 trade on weak momentum and low volume where I'll have to make sure to get out before I get clobbered by the next $60 down candle is not worth it.
When you say all the MACDs and EMAs what exactly do you mean? Just different lengths in the same timeframe? That's not what I'm doing here. |
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MACD trend data from Bitcoinwisdom:
MACD on 1-Week Chart: Down
MACD on 3-Day Chart: Down
MACD on 1-Day Chart: Down
MACD on 12-Hour Chart: Down
MACD on 6-Hour Chart: Down
MACD on 4-Hour Chart: Up
MACD on 2-Hour Chart: Up
MACD on 1-Hour Chart: Up
MACD on 30-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 15-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 5-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 3-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 1-Minute Chart: Up
It's looking bullish for short-term traders and bearish for medium-term traders. Data for long-term traders is not available on Bitcoinwisdom, as it doesn't support a 1-month Chart. But you can eyeball it and see the long-term monthly trend is up.
The 6-Hour chart is very close to hitting Up.
The 6-Hour chart's MACD went green. We should wait for the candle to complete for confirmation. Then it will be Up. |
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Bitstamp BTC/USD MACD trend data from Bitcoinwisdom:
MACD on 1-Week Chart: Down
MACD on 3-Day Chart: Down
MACD on 1-Day Chart: Down
MACD on 12-Hour Chart: Down
MACD on 6-Hour Chart: Down
MACD on 4-Hour Chart: Up
MACD on 2-Hour Chart: Up
MACD on 1-Hour Chart: Up
MACD on 30-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 15-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 5-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 3-Minute Chart: Up
MACD on 1-Minute Chart: Up
It's looking bullish for short-term traders and bearish for medium-term traders. Data for long-term traders is not available on Bitcoinwisdom, as it doesn't support a 1-month Chart. But you can eyeball it and see the long-term monthly trend is up.
The 6-Hour chart is very close to hitting Up.
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You have 1 day to lock in your vote. Results will be available after that.
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Newly minted coins are all that's needed to crash the market. The BTC community needs to CONTINUALLY spend more then a million dollars a DAY to support the current price, they can not simple HODL the price up because thouse miners need to have their costs covered.
No. If miners stop unprofitable mining, difficulty will drop to compensate. In short, mining costs will always be covered because of this. Mining difficulty will adjust, meaning less will be spent on hardware and electricity. So the fiat-value of BTC will not need to cover miners. |
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I actually meant long like long on bitfinex, so if price goes up i earn extra btc, instead of just having the same amount of btc that increases in value.
Ah, you mean long on margin. Obviously what I'm discussing doesn't apply for exchange-enabled margin trading. The equivalent margin trade without keeping your Bitcoins on an exchange would be to get a loan for the additional amount of Bitcoins wanted beyond your funds, and use that to buy Bitcoin. That's what a long margin trade really is. |
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I thought it was facts u dislike? Which causes the price to fall?
