Not good news for ETH:



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1166428.new;topicseen#new

You have a point.  But still, it's right at 3 times.

It's not that clear cut.

What makes you think you only mine around 1.4 BTC by the end of the year?

If you started the last two weeks of July with the following difficulty changes:

.2624 BTC mined the last 2 weeks of July with difficulty at 187.824 Billion
.2515 BTC mined 2 weeks later (August 1, 2016) 5% increase August 1, 2016, that would be 196.35 Billion with that 5 percent increase.
.2391 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid August) the difficulty increased another 5% from 196.35 Billion to 206.1675 Billion.
.2277 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of August) the difficulty increased another 5% from 206.1675 Billion to 216.475 Billion.
.2168 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid September) the difficulty increased another 5% from 216.475 Billion to 227.299 Billion.
.1885 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of September) the difficulty increased 15% from 227.299 Billion to 261.394 Billion.  [I have 15% increase at this difficulty change for another manufacturer with next gen rigs online.]
.1640 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid October) the difficulty increased 15% from 261.394 Billion to 300.604 Billion.
.1477 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of October) the difficulty increased 11% from 300.604 Billion to 333.670 Billion.  [This puts us above my difficulty prediction of 322,388,000,000 by end of October, 2016.]
.1368 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid November) the difficulty increased 8% from 333.670 Billion to 360.364 Billion.
.1319 BTC mined 2 weeks later (end of November) the difficulty increased 12% from 333.670 Billion to 373.710 Billion.
.1221 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid December) the difficulty increased 8% from 373.710 Billion to 403.607 Billion.
.1152 BTC mined 2 weeks later (mid December) the difficulty increased 6% from 403.607 Billion to 427.824 Billion.

2.2037 BTC mined approximately by end of December 2016.  This does not include paying for power costs.

The outlook on how many bitcoin mined per S9 looks kind of disappointing after December, 2016 if the difficulty plays out the way I'm speculating.  Maybe you think it's impossible for difficulty to increase this much in a relatively short period of time.  However, I believe it would be achieved quite easily.  Especially, if another manufacturer comes out with similar efficiency rigs.  Think about it, the S9 is MORE THAN TRIPLE THE HASH RATE of the previous S7 at virtually the same power consumption.  Is it not reasonable to conclude the difficulty could easily double within a 5 to 6 month period with that kind of performance.  Especially, if Bitmain is not the only manufacturer with this technology.

I would have to agree.  I believe the day of seeing sub $450 USD for a bitcoin and sub $4.50 for LTC is history.

not.you asked the following but deleted his question:  "Is that image of the calculator based on 25 coins per block or 12.5?"

I halved the price in my calculation from $655.20 in that month to $327.60 because of blocks reducing from 25 to 12.5.

EDIT:  I'm basically saying your profits with an S9 will look quite nice through October, 2016.  However, don't be surprised if difficulty begins to increase at a rate faster than bitcoin price increase after October, 2016.  Your profits after power costs may reduce from $200+ each month to $100+ each month by December, 2016 IF THE PRICE OF BITCOIN DOES NOT INCREASE TO THE PROJECTED $1,500 I've speculated in my 3-Day price chart by end of 2016.  However, if bitcoin price does increase to $1,500 by end of 2016, you can expect the percentage rate of difficulty to increase at a similar percentage rate with bitcoin price until the end of 2016 and continue to enjoy $200+ profits per S9 monthly.  However, I can see the difficulty increase exponentially in 2017 if the price of bitcoin increased to $1,500.

I, personally, would carry over what remains to be paid towards your PSU's to your next rig (Bitmain S9) in terms of ROI.  You can sell an S7 for $250 plus buyer pays shipping right now.

However, I'm kind of having a hard time myself justifying if it's worth it right now at current price of BTC.  We are at a unique time in terms of our current bullish outlook of bitcoin price compared to the previous two years of bearish markets.

We could probably conclude the buyers of the S9 may do quite well [In terms of monthly profits] during the next three to four months of a rise in bitcoin price that out paces a rise in difficulty.  However, I'm speculating a bitcoin price rise as high as $1,500 the last quarter of 2016.

I'm expecting difficulty to drop down from our current 199,312,067,531 to around 187,000,000,000 by end of July and begin to increase about 5% on average every difficulty change from there until around end of August or September.  I'm expecting at least one manufacturer, whether it's BitFury, KNC, or some other manufacturer, to get next generation rigs up and running soon.  If another manufacturer begins adding next generation rigs to the network, we could see difficulty rises as high as 12% to 17% on average every difficulty change quite easily.  

IF BTC price increases to $1,000 USD, it will have risen 72.4 percent.  If difficulty increased 72.4 percent from 187,000,000,000, that would put difficulty at 322,388,000,000.  When difficulty changes a certain percentage each difficulty change, it is compounded each change.  For example,

If Difficulty was 187 Billion the end of July and increased 5% the first change in August, that would be 196.35 Billion with that 5 percent increase.
2 weeks later (mid August) the difficulty increases another 5% from 196.35 Billion to 206.1675 Billion.
2 weeks later (end of August) the difficulty increases another 5% from 206.1675 Billion to 216.475 Billion.
2 weeks later (mid September) the difficulty increases another 5% from 216.475 Billion to 227.299 Billion.
2 weeks later (end of September) the difficulty increases 15% from 227.299 Billion to 261.394 Billion.  [I have 15% increase at this difficulty change for another manufacturer with next gen rigs coming online.]
2 weeks later (mid October) the difficulty increases 15% from 261.394 Billion to 300.604 Billion.
2 weeks later (end of October) the difficulty increases 11% from 300.604 Billion to 333.670 Billion.  [This puts us above my difficulty prediction of 322,388,000,000 by end of October, 2016.]

An increase in difficulty from 187.000 Billion to 322.388 Billion is an increase of 72.4 percent.  EDIT:  Looking back at the difficulty changes added up, one may think we increased 5% + 5% + 5%+ 5% + 15% + 15% + 11% = 61%.  However, the way it is compounded each increase actually makes this a 72.4 percent increase.

This means a projected rise in difficulty has matched a projected rise in BTC price by end of October, 2016.  Which see, if the price of Bitcoin went up to $1,000 by end of October [72.4 percent increase from current price] and the difficulty is 322.388 Billion [72.4 percent increase from projected lower difficulty in July of 187 Billion].

Here is what projected earnings look like with BTC price @ $1,000 and difficulty at 322,388,000,000:  Half of $655.20 (blocks halved) in a month = $327.60 (0.6552 BTC) before power costs the end of October, 2016.  EDIT:  This assumes you are on a pool with low fees and 100+ percent luck.  I am currently (kano.is).



Since our estimated ROI relies heavily upon our power costs, I'm leaving estimation of ROI up to each miner to calculate.  My estimations could be wrong on the percentage difficulty increases because I'm not sure how many S9's Bitmaintech can manufacture in a month.  I'm also not sure of when another manufacturer will add their next generation rigs to the network and how many they can manufacturer monthly.  

All of this is pure speculation on my part.  I'm offering up my speculation on difficulty for conversation among us all to determine whether it's wise to purchase the S9 or not at current price.

Projected BTC Price Movement on 3D (3-Day) Chart [Meaning each candle is 3-Days in duration]:  https://www.tradingview.com/x/tLfFQO1K//

EDIT:  Also, for those of you trading, I don't see this time being a pump and dump scheme.  That's what the whales want you to think when they fake out a dump, only to find they have created a trap to accumulate more BTC with the intent of pumping it further afterwards.  If this was a pump and dump scheme, they would have started the pump much sooner than what they did.  This time we will have a pump with very little dump and continue pumping again.  2016 will be a bullish year for bitcoin.  2017 through 2019 will be even more bullish than 2016.

We must also consider longevity of your investment.  Which one will last longer when difficulty rises with power costs in mind?

EDIT:  Keep in mind, I did not say "when" difficulty will rise significantly.

Yep, As I thought, New S 9 is out!

14.0 TH's with 1375 watts at the wall +/- 7%

$2,100 USD + shipping and possible VAT for some.

HTTP 503 ERROR for me.

That guy needs a bed pan to catch the piss in his pants.  He is obviously "in" with the banks.  I would love to see an interview about bitcoin with him about two years from now and two years from that date as well.

I got my BitPay Debit card in the mail today.  I need to activate it and load it up with a little to try it out.

Has bitmaintech.com been non-accessible for anyone else?  If so, for how long?

Hi JJG,

I'll respond to you properly after a while.  Busy at the moment.

I edited my post above.

wow, it is.  hmmmm  I might have to consider getting in.  Just need to determine how much.


EDIT:  Nehhhhh, kind of scares then hell out of me right now.  Makes no sense.

Yes, it a very high health and dental insurance plan.  It's considered a "cadillac" plan.  It's the plan my wife had with her previous oil and gas company.  We chose to continue with it instead of getting into O'Bummer Care.  The deductibles are very low.  The highest we would ever pay for a deductible would be $200.  For example, if my wife got pregnant again and she had to stay in the hospital for at least one night.  That would be a $200 deductible.

I've seen many other peoples plans under O'Bummer Care with deductibles ranging from $2,000 to as much as $7,000 while only paying $280 less than us each month.  Yes, that adds up over 12 months.  However, we still get to see the doctor WE want to see.  Most cannot do that under O'Bummer Care.

So, it sounds like you may invest about 1/5 of your holdings every $10 the price goes up.  It also sounds like you do this over a relatively long period of time.  You keep up with the amount of BTC purchased and at what price.  Which means you have pre-determined an exit for each fifth of your holdings ($1,000) you have invested as the price heads upward.  This would mean most of the time you are not in a position to have invest all $5K or 5 fifths for example because the price may not have gone up $50 or $60 over the period you are trading before it goes down again.  At least that is what has been the case lately.  It has stayed pretty much between $435 and $465 for quite a while now.

When trading BTC/USD, I'm usually making trades with 50 or 60 BTC on BitFinex; 40 or 50 BTC on Coinbase and 15 to 20 BTC on BTC-e [I have stopped trading on BitStamp].  The price may have changed $5, $10, $15 or $20 before I've made my exit.  In some cases $30, $40 or $50 before exiting.  However, it may have played out over a 2 to 10 day period.  In most cases it has been 2 to 4 days.  About what time frame do your trades occur within on average from entry to exit?

Also, I'm usually getting out of the trade [Have a STOP] if it's gone to a point of losing 2% of my trade.  I risk no more than 2% in a bull market and no more than 1% in a bear market.  Of course, this means on a 50 BTC entry if I get stopped out, I lost 1 BTC in a bull market and 0.5 BTC in a bear market.  However, for every $10 gain without being stopped out with 120 BTC waged across 3 exchanges, I'll have a $1,200 gain in total minus fees.  $2,400 minus fees for $20 gain, $3,600 minus fees for a $30 gain, etc...  BTC-e fees are 0.2% fees for taker and maker.  Coinbase 0.25% for taker and 0% for maker.  However, I believe they have recently establish a discount credited back to your account every 30 days based how much one has traded during that time frame.  Same thing with BitFinex.

The ranges with BitFinex are as follows:

Executed in the last 30 days (USD Equivalent)        Maker fees   Taker fees
$0.00 or more traded                                                0.100%   0.200%
$500,000.00 or more traded                                      0.080%   0.200%
$1,000,000.00 or more traded                                   0.060%   0.200%
$2,500,000.00 or more traded                                   0.040%   0.200%
$5,000,000.00 or more traded                                   0.020%   0.200%
$7,500,000.00 or more traded                                   0.000%   0.200%
$10,000,000.00 or more traded                                 0.000%   0.180%
$15,000,000.00 or more traded                                 0.000%   0.160%
$20,000,000.00 or more traded                                 0.000%   0.140%
$25,000,000.00 or more traded                                 0.000%   0.120%
$30,000,000.00 or more traded                                 0.000%   0.100%

I wouldn't mind getting to a point I could live off trading BTC.  That would be sweeeeeeeeet.  At present, we cannot do it without too much stress.  I told Fakhoury about my wife getting laid off from her accounting job with an oil and gas company in January this year.  We've had to get a little bit out of savings each month to meet our monthly obligations.  Trading has helped but not quite enough.  Our monthly obligations are quite large.  Our health insurance and dental insurance are close to the same as our house note: approximately $1,750.  House note is more than that.  We have more than $4,000 in monthly obligations just with our house note and insurance.  Then we have a few credit card bills, utilities, grocery, gas, car insurance, etc...  It adds up quickly.  Hence, the reason I'm wanting to open up e-cig stores.

I've procrastinated on opening up e-cig stores long enough.  Which means you will not see me as much in the forums for a while beginning next week.  I'll still pop in almost everyday.  However, I will not stay on here very long each day.  It will take some time before I can find someone I can trust enough to run the e-cig stores so I can focus my energy back to trading.

My wife and I are determined to home school our son [He is 5 years old and begins K-school in the fall].  We would also like for him to experience the outdoors and see many parts of North America.  We are getting to the point of seriously considering becoming full time RV'ers.  We would keep our house though.  It would be a place to return when we want to spend time with my wife's parents or my parents.

You might find you like RV'ing.  You can get a travel trailer to pull with a truck or SUV.  A 5th wheel would need to be pulled by at least a one ton pickup truck.  That's why I'm suggesting a travel trailer instead of a 5th wheel.  Keystone is the best bang for your buck in terms of quality.

Hope you get those business details tying you down untied so you can experience more freedom to roam about when and where ever you like.  Looking back, my wife and I wish we had bought an RV to have more freedom to do what we wanted.  Getting tied down with a large house note on a large house for going on 15 years now has not been exciting.  Especially, after the housing bubble.  An RV or travel trailer of some sort offers one more flexibility to move if necessary to make other business opportunities more possible.  That's my two cents.

I've found what helped me get out of reacting on emotions is to stop looking at any chart lower than the 30m.  I remember I used to look at the 15m, 5m and 3m all the time.  I would get caught up "in the moment" (15m, 5m and 3m charts) instead of having a plan based off information gathered to make a logical decision.  I've had to force myself to exercise patience with trading to allow TIME for things to play out the way I previously determined they may play out based on the information I've gathered.  Sometimes, this may take days and in some cases weeks to play out.

I remember when LTC was heading on a downward spiral.  I told everyone they should wait to get in around .0065 in about 6 to 8 weeks.  I have many witnesses on BTC-e about this.  Paul (a moderator on BTC-e) is a witness to this.  I provided charts for those who were interested.  Sure enough, about 8 weeks later it hit an ATL of .0065 and I bought a slew of it to prepare for the LTC pump and dump due to the LTC block halving I knew was coming about 3.5 months later.

The swings are not broad enough to do any swing trading in my opinion.  It's not worth my time to be near the computer to swing trade at present.  Back in late 2013 and first quarter of 2014 it was nothing for you to have $50 swings almost every day.  Now THAT is worth staying near the computer to get involved with.

Most of my trades lately have occurred over a 2 to 4 day period where I would enter and exit.  I know some who may make only 2 trades a month (one entry and one exit) but they were big trades.  I suppose it depends on the person and the amount of time they have to invest in front of computer screen to trade.

The reason I'm saying it's so rare is mainly because everyone could not buy into telephone, internet, automobile, etc... and expect that kind of return on investment.  I could be wrong but I don't think so.

As for the price on the Realm RV:  http://www.rvtrader.com/dealers/Motor-Home-Specialist-Inc.-726707/listing/2016-Foretravel-Realm-FS6-Luxury-Villa-3-%28LV3%29-Bath-%26-1--115076294