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Mining contracts only make sense if the person selling the contract is more or less taking the person buying the contract to the cleaners.
For example, say you want to rent 1GHash/sec. Vladimirs prices make sense for Vladimir, you lock yourself in for a multi-month contract at a price that allows vladimir to buy 1GHash/sec of generating equipment, he sells you that 1Ghash for a few months, you get the BTC and he gets shiny new hashing power for free (less power costs) once your contract is up guaranteed (for him).
The only sense for the buyer is if they are in a place where electricity is crazy expensive, computer hardware is crazy expensive, etc. etc. is very expensive, and they expect the price of bitcoin to stay relatively flat, or to decrease, at a rate that is still a profit over what they paid for the contract. A sort of minimal gain but without any hassle on their end. The lazy mans way to get into bitcoin.
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it seems like the hashing power of the entire network is going down.
Yesterday it was 11THash, now down to 10.4Thash
it is more likely that the hashing power is remaining more or less constant and variance is wagging up and down. |
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I'm amazed people want to buy these, $900 for 850Mhash? Come on now. Not even counting the loop you have to build that's a terrible deal. Hoping it's mostly gamers that bought these out.
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Solar and wind make more sense than geothermal and hydro, simply because of their abundance and lack of needing rights to tap. Sun and wind are everywhere, geothermal and high volume flowing water are not.
I suppose if you happen to be living right on top of a geothermal source, or next to a raging river, that would be a fine option, if you're not one of the incredibly tiny portion that does then it might be a bit harder.
I suppose mining on one of these sources makes sense on some level, but their costs and hassle make them a large project with iffy return ratios. Though obviously they've side benefits to them outside of mining (like not raping the earth with all this power consumption and whatnot), except for burning wood. That's just incredibly wasteful.
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Old news: https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=9786.20Some guy says to some other guy that a 3rd guy got busted by some guys for some thing. Yawn. On another note, a friend of mine was living with actual marijuana growers a while back. They grew marijuana under lamps in their garage. When it would get too hot in the summer they'd partially open the garage door to let some air circulate in/out of the garage. Somehow they remained unbusted by the time he moved out heh. Another friend story, so take it as you will. |
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lowball is all in the eye of the beholder. Though to be truly fair to the OP I recently saw a bunch of 5870s go for $360 on ebay  Double what I'd be willing to pay even if difficulty weren't so ridiculously high. Sweet buncha crap mang, I'd be tempted to lift off your hands if I didn't suspect you were aiming for super-overpricing and difficulty didnt make buying in such a losing proposition. |
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55 here, with a high of 66 today. (runs as other miners throw cans at him).
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I had 3 5850 got 1.5BTC a day 2 weeks ago.. Now I have 6 5850 again getting 1.5BTC a day...
Very Very sad...
58 50s And people are RIGHT NOW bidding 58 30's up to $160 on eBay -- at least that's the going "market rate" on eBay for them. Which is ridiculous -- anyone hoping to MAKE MONEY is going to be disappointed, because you'll never see $160 from one of those cards. A person would be better off buying $160 worth of BTC. 5830s, unlike 5850s, do NOT get 0.25 BTC/day. 5830s only get 0.167 BTC/day. Now if it wasn't $160, it might be an OK deal. Perhaps $130 at the absolute highest. Really, what made the 5830 popular was the $110 price point. It's NOT the ultimate card for Bitcoin mining. There are plenty of cards that mine better than that card! When I see people bidding the 5830 up higher than a 5850 or 5870, I have to shake my head. The 5850 gets about 350 MH/s and the 5970 gets about 365 MH/s, with moderate overclocking (no voltage tweaking). Unfortunately, the smart people figure it out first, followed by the pretty smart, followed by those of average intelligence, followed by those of below-average intelligence. Not everyone "figures things out" at the same time.Just like with the Dot-Com bubble, just like with house flipping. There were some people who didn't know the bubble burst even after it burst! They still thought the bubble was intact (rather than burst). Those people, of course, lost plenty of money. You want to be one of the quick ones -- one of the smart ones. A 5870 can get 430 MH/s without touching the voltage. The sky is always falling with him, and the worst case scenario is always the norm, don't pay much attention. Just sold a used 5830 on ebay this weekend for $162.50 shipped before ebay/paypal fees. So take away shipping and ebay fees and I netted ~$125. Not bad for a $109 card.  BTW, anyone else think ebay fees are completely out of hand? Ebay charged $14.63 in fees for that $162.50 sale. Then Paypal charged $5.01. That is around 12 percent for simply hosting a web page and moving some money around. I'm close to saying screw ebay on most stuff and going back to craigslist. So many retards on craigslist though... I would never sell on ebay, the markup you need is retarded. The fees total roughly 13% with paypal. I use private sites to traffic in my video cards (better for buying and selling, yay). The only time I used ebay in the past 8 years was because of that groupon deal that gave you 60% off purchases. Other than that that site can piss off. |
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That my friend, is the invisible hand. Because it is not profitable for you, you will drop out of the market...
What? No. That's rational actor. The Invisible Hand is how Adam Smith thought that people would buy locally instead of cheap imports. It's invisible because it doesn't exist. Damn where is the clapping smiley? This x1000. |
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Looks good. Now we need someone to write one that does do a conservative estimate of additional difficulty increases. Difficulty increases aren't completely predictable, but writing an estimator that uses the exponential curve that best fits previous increases would be a good start.
Nah. What someone really needs to do is have a graphing function, and after about a months extrapolation it says something like this:  |
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There should just be a bot for the forums that comes in to another thread with one of these "Future bitcoin mining" predictions, and just says "you assume you know the future therefore your analysis is wrong" and then closes the thread.
Yeah I have fascist leanings, sue me.
Anyway, a geometric series and a stepwise function will not at all yield the same thing, hence why you were wrong from the start. Additionally looking at merely the very first step in the more accurate stepwise function your progression falls apart. Rather than .404 on day 12 we are looking more like .63
A model is only as useful as it is accurate, and yours misses the boat completely.
But you were doomed from the start by tackling an intractable problem, so it's not totally your fault.
I will admit however that A) You should not build a 1$/Mhash machine and B) You should not expect to make much profit in the current price/difficulty regime. We will see where difficulty heads however.
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I'd dump all of mine if it hit 30 again. Its always funny to me how people speculate it will hit 50,100,200, etc and then be a stable currency for businesses to adopt. If it makes a meteoric rise like that, its the definition of a volatile currency.
So then you'd call Gold a highly volatile currency given the current 10 year bull market and multiplication of price? When was the last time you walked into a store and bought something with some gold? Gold isn't a currency, it's a commodity. For now bitcoins walk the line between currency and commodity, but there are some vendors accepting bitcoins as payment, giving it more claim to currency than gold at least. |
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Are there 5870 GPU chips in manufacturer stocks still? I suppose not. Otherwise, I would bet that Sapphire or Gigabyte could sell them very easily ..
AMD is the only GPU manufacturer and they are not producing/stockpiling them. As for the pcb makers, well, it's unknown what they have, but very unlikely that they are sitting on a big pile of last generation chips, as they have all the designs and components and can easily whip out another batch if they saw a demand for it. |
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Who are all these people you refer to exactly? I don't see many people claiming that they're happily hashing away with less than 100Mhash/sec.
If you have free electricity and an old machine you don't really care about, 100mhash > 0 also.
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Remember that the GPU market is hugely skewed towards the budget side of things. The biggest manufacturer of GPU's is by far Intel! The 30000 GPU's you mention would likely be higher-end units which sell but a fraction of the volume.. Even taking that into account though - I don't think Bitcoin doesn't have an effect on the GPU market as a whole, nor on the development of GPU's for computation IMO. It's just too small.
It's clearly had an effect on the market pricing & availability of ATi 5xxx and 6xxx series cards though.
Wrongola. This thread has been discussed multiple times before so I'm just going to bulletpoint without providing sources this time 6xxx series cards pricing and availability is unchanged since the boom of bitcoin. Even the fabled (and terrible $/hash) 6990. 5xxx series cards pricing actually came down around bitcoin boom time (sapphire 5850/5830 extreme were cheaper than any 58xx before). Availability I suppose decreased. The biggest factor for both though is that they're last generation gpus, no longer in production. Manufacturers were dumping their last stock. I suppose you could say it affected the used market though, that'd be fair. The 58xx series are not really budget cards, nor were they ever. Yet AMD sold 16+million of them in the first 9 months after release. So... once again, bitcoin means nothing to either AMD or xfx/sapphire/etc. They're not going to make special orders for you, or restart fabbing for the 30,000 bitcoiners. |
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Earth's northern hemisphere contains most of its land area and most of its human population (about 90%). |
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So it means that the money doesn't exist anywhere. It is just a number sent between accounts on the Federal Reserve.
What is still a bit unclear to me is the bootstraping. Imagine a bank that is just created. How is money sent to this bank. Then how could the same bank lend more than they have? Because what they really have is recorded in their central fed account, right?
I believe that is where fractional reserve lending comes into play. You need only retain a fraction of your promises in lending in the central fed account, which limits the amount of promises you can make in loans (but still is multiples more than you actually have, I believe in the US you can lend 10x the amount of deposit you have?). Rarely in a loan does the bank actually give anyone cold hard cash, they merely agree to put a credit blip in the account of the borrower to put towards whatever their debt obligation is to. The rest simply works like you described before, intrabank or interbank, most of the money doesn't exist anywhere, just credits and debits on a balance sheet. |
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Open up whatever port your SSH is bound to from the router (usually port forward to 23) to external traffic. Depending on the SSH server you may need to set it to allow remote access as well.
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A drop in difficulty? Don't count on it. A rise in difficulty though won't likely be much looking at the numbers, so that's good.  A downward trend is seen for the moment. |
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Fairly obvious that 388 ~= 189x2. Until the first worker kicks back in and updates its hashrate it just holds that value then adds the second worker to it. When the first one reconnects you'll see it drop.
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