so what do you do if price goes to shit?
If you take all the measures and you choose your exchange wisely chances to be robbed are slim.
if we are in a bull market I need to go long to increase my btc holdings. if we are in a bear market I need to go to fiat and possibly short bitcoins.
I'm not a hodler so always keeping my BTC in cold storage is not a good idea for me.
If you are long, you can keep your Bitcoins in a safe wallet, off the exchange. |
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Unless they are needed for an active order, I recommend keeping them in a safe wallet. Cold storage or Bitgo would be best.
Two good reasons:
1) They won't be stolen if you keep your private keys safe and unused.
2) Your BTC can be lent to others who sell them short. By keeping them on the exchange, you allow them to be sold short, possibly repeatedly. This will depress the price, hurting your investment. Get the coins off the exchange and they won't be used by the bears to drive price down. Get enough off the exchange and you will help squeeze the shorts, forcing them to buy.
They will also be bought back repeatedly, driving the price up. Shorting just moves the market more rapidly in the direction it's heading anyways, and adds volatility. When prices are rising because demand outweighs supply, the shorters get busted, and it doesn't matter how many coins are on the exchange because no one wants to borrow them. I don't think I made this clear enough. On a properly run exchange, the Bitcoin you leave on the exchange is required to allow others to short. The short-sellers borrow your Bitcoins and sell them, either adding a sell order to the book or removing a buy order from it. This moves the market down. With enough Bitcoins, someone with lots of dollars can come in and short sell until they hit every single buy order on the book, then set up very low hidden sell orders that keep the price low forever. On an improperly run exchange, they don't bother borrowing Bitcoins to allow folks to short sell. They allow as much shorting as anyone wants, limited only by the margin dollars present in the shorters' accounts. Can you think of any organization with access to infinite dollars that would have a vested interest in seeing the value of Bitcoin tank, and never recover? The only way to keep exchanges in check is to keep the number of Bitcoins in exchange accounts very low. This will limit short sales on properly run exchanges, and expose improperly run exchanges to bankruptcy when they run out of Bitcoin for withdrawals. |
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Unless they are needed for an active order, I recommend keeping them in a safe wallet. Cold storage or Bitgo would be best.
Two good reasons:
1) They won't be stolen if you keep your private keys safe and unused.
2) Your BTC can be lent to others who sell them short. By keeping them on the exchange, you allow them to be sold short, possibly repeatedly. This will depress the price, hurting your investment. Get the coins off the exchange and they won't be used by the bears to drive price down. Get enough off the exchange and you will help squeeze the shorts, forcing them to buy.
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You may be right. I didn't select the best poll options, apparently.
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Final poll results:
Crazy - 18 (14.5%)
Clueless Newbie - 21 (16.9%)
Attention Seeking Whore - 33 (26.6%)
Right - 33 (26.6%)
Understating it. To the moon! Above $700 by then! - 19 (15.3%)
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Sentiment summary of poll results:
Bearish votes: 72 (58.1%)
Bullish votes: results: 52 (41.9%)
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Market performance by May the 4th:
Definitive bear
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A sample size of one poll is too small to make this claim, but it looks like this forum as a whole is better at predicting its market than most forums are at predicting their respective non-virtual-currency financial markets. I might go out on a limb and say that when this changes, it's a sign that Wall Street is in the market.
My vote was "crazy", btw.
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Short (over)selling of stocks relies on the settlement procedure so that it is possible to sell large amounts of what you dont own. Eventually you own up to never owning any and the trade is cancelled, however in a bear raid this works as actual holders see the price fall and sell themselves (or you may just trigger their stoploss orders). They may sell so much that the naked shorts are able to become buyers at a much lower price, so they never have to own up and can present these shares in settlement some days later
BTC wont work like that, there is no innate leverage or credit given. Confirmation times are an hour at most ? So I imagine spoofing the system with what you dont own shouldnt be the case, a bear raid in the worst excesses of wall street or wherever is not possible or at least would require extremely abnormal manoeuvres
There is a bucket shop operation that allows naked bitcoin short selling. However they are not themselves engaged with the network as far I know and Im sure they have a limit to the size allowed. Ie. They allow a virtual bet on btc price, there have no horse in the race so btc price wont be effected (afaik)
AFAIK exchange transactions are all off the blockchain. Only deposits or withdrawals of BTC would appear on the blockchain. |
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How transparent are Bitcoin exchanges with regards to delivery of BTC being shorted? Have we looked into the potential for naked short selling, which would involve the allowance of infinite short selling, to the point of selling more BTC than even exists? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naked_short_selling |
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I'll make a bet. If BTC goes to $0, you win. If BTC goes to $1,000,000 first, I win. I offer 10,000 BTC if you win. But if I win, you just owe me 1.
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I want to thank all the fearful for making it much easier to accumulate this afternoon/evening. Time for dinner.
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Bloomberg has announced the release of Bitcoin support in their trading terminals, used worldwide by over 320,000 trading professionals. The market makers of the world will now have instant access to immediate Bitcoin prices on an industry-standard trading platform. This places the virtual currency before the eyes of the movers and shakers of most of the world's money supply as they decide where to invest their $USD holdings. http://www.bloomberg.com/now/2014-04-30/bitcoin-now-bloomberg/... Regardless of your position, virtual currencies have become increasingly interesting to investors and financial market participants around the world. That’s why we are pleased to announce today that Bloomberg is providing bitcoin pricing to our 320,000+ global subscribers. ... |
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Do you want more fiat flowing into BTC? We need an exchange in the U.S. that is covered by industry-standard insurance. We need trading offered on an exchange that is already available to investors. This means CME/Globex. We need BTC added here: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/If BTC futures contracts are offered on CME/Globex, then investors won't have to fear the Bitcoin infrastructure. They will have industry-accepted insurance against loss due to Exchange problems. All existing trading platforms already support CME/Globex. So this will be nearly a no-op (no effort) in getting the product offered to investors once it's on this exchange. If you want this to happen, get into their IdeaExchange program at http://www.cmegroup.com/company/idea-exchange.html and push BTC to their product managers! |
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This means an exchange in the U.S. that is covered by industry-standard insurance.
Hmm, I don't see anything about insurance on the Atlas website. We need futures contracts on CME/GLOBEX.
What needs to happen for bitcoin futures to be traded on CME/GLOBEX? Will the Winklevii or Second Market make this a possibility? We need BTC added here: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/Then investors won't have to fear the Bitcoin infrastructure. They will have industry-accepted insurance against loss due to Exchange problems. All existing trading platforms already support CME/Globex. So this will be nearly a no-op (no effort) in getting the product offered to investors once it's on this exchange. Get into their IdeaExchange program at http://www.cmegroup.com/company/idea-exchange.html and push BTC to their product managers! |
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No. We need a means of getting millions or even billions of dollars converted safely to Bitcoin. This means an exchange in the U.S. that is covered by industry-standard insurance. We need futures contracts on CME/GLOBEX.
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I will share some time after voting is closed.
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You have 1 day to lock your vote in.
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Lack of movement means buyers equal panic sellers. Actually, the market has moved up a bit. So buyers exceed sellers right now.
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Take another look at this chart. Look at what happened to price on all the big red volume days. Every single time price made a new lower low. It was the lowest price seen on the chart at the time. Now look at the very last big red volume day. This is the 2nd to last column of the chart. This day broke the pattern. It's a large red volume day, but price did not break to a new chart low. This bear pattern is now broken. |
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Interesting. Grain of salt required as this data appears to come directly from the exchanges.
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what did i miss??
fiatleak.com shows LOTS of bitcoin heading to China...
all your coins belong to us... they say
I looks like capital flight from China. When a government tries to stop it, the result is an acceleration. The tighter the fist, the more escapes from their grip. Note however that I believe this website uses data reported by the exchanges. So what you see there is being reported by the Chinese exchanges. |
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We have breached 472.50. If we continue lower, the next major supports are at 454, 400, and 355.50.
If there was supposed to be support at 472 and it didn't materialize, why in the world would you believe other magic numbers will work? There was some support there. It was the 7-day low. That support didn't last very long. The 454 support was the low around 10 days ago. But it also won't have a whole lot of support. It could hold if selling is running out of steam. Beyond that we're looking at 355.50 as a very strong support. It's the 5-month low from November. We seem to have found some support at the $454 level mentioned earlier. Other supports are $400 and $355.50, as covered above. |
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