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901  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitstamp Volume Update on: March 03, 2015, 08:10:19 AM
I can't disagree at all. Especially no Tarding!

Just so happens I did the same thing the other day ( €€€s to kraken). Bit annoyed it popped today, and that it takes so long for funds to arrive, but thats the game Smiley

Also bunged a few k bitstamp's way. In an ironic twist, it's easier to get business account validated on stamp, than it is on kraken! (though tbf both require liberal amounts of vaseline) So I'm gonna stick with them for the company trades!

I think you are right though its going to be a very long and bumpy road, the likes of which nobody has seen before, or is really expecting. I think in 2025 on 10y chart it will look obvious what one *should* have done, but I expect some serious shenanigans on the way there that will make it really hard to actually do it. (it will make the $15 -> $1200 -> $160 look like the teacup ride).

Or it will all go to shit. Can't ever forget that part Wink

What is Bitstamp like now for depositing?

I might have considered Bitstamp but just wanted my money on the exchange fast and that happens with Kraken....although I missed the pop up as well due to Kraken withholding crediting my account due to new fraud measures blah blah blah German bank accounts involved with fraud blah blah blah FUCK YOU U FUCKING CUNTS blah blah blah blah etc etc etc.....

Long term, My bias is still with everything ending in tears but long term isn't what matters, at least not to me. Medium term, we are going to consolidate, UP the way. I am sure of that.......and I reserve the right to revise my long term bias as and when.

Bitstamp used to be a day for me. This time round It took longer because I was getting business verified - funds got there yesterday (sent thursday last week). Still waiting for kraken (sent wed), both on 'Urgent' from Natwest which is same/next day depending on time you do it.

Managed to get a few satoshis at 262. we'll see if that turns out to have been a good buy!  
902  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Price from 237.00 to 262.00 In One Day with NO NEWS on: March 02, 2015, 09:02:23 PM
The recovery seems to be taking way too long but  I'm almost sure the price will recover.

On the contrary - its taking exactly as long as it needs to take!

Have you ever watched the tide come in... It doesn't look like its moving then you realise that actually it was *way* back there a little while back...
903  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - 68 PARTICIPANTS on: March 01, 2015, 09:56:50 PM
And as expected I bought back in too early again, but luckily I wasn't the only one here. Tongue

I was about to post the same thing... then I saw it...!


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904  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - 68 PARTICIPANTS on: March 01, 2015, 03:27:32 AM
i don't have the correct attention span it seems. the test of 245 came and went and I was nowhere to be seen Smiley

anyway i've missed it now so i need to get back in BTC before the next leg up!

buy @254.12
905  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitstamp Volume Update on: February 27, 2015, 10:03:27 PM
...Just transferred a few thousand €uros to Kraken...

 Shocked

Yep.

My position on Bitcoin at the moment is that it might stagnate a bit further, it might grind down a bit further from here, but in the medium term I like Bitcoin at least up until the $400 range....might take a few months to get there....having said that, I am noticing that shorts on Bitfinex are back piling up to near ATHs, without the price really pushing down so much. Those are ripe conditions for a nasty short squeeze should some considerable buying pressure come to market....so who knows...maybe we will get a spike up but I suspect the general character of Bitcoin in the short-medium term will be grinding, and mostly grinding up the way.

So I am going to take a modest position tomorrow when my dosh lands on Kraken, whatever the price, and just sit and hold it until the market does what I know it will eventually do (that means NO TARDING).

If my Bitcoin tarding history was littered with cases of me holding out for 'what I knew the market was going to do', then I would be a rich man.

I can't disagree at all. Especially no Tarding!

Just so happens I did the same thing the other day ( €€€s to kraken). Bit annoyed it popped today, and that it takes so long for funds to arrive, but thats the game Smiley

Also bunged a few k bitstamp's way. In an ironic twist, it's easier to get business account validated on stamp, than it is on kraken! (though tbf both require liberal amounts of vaseline) So I'm gonna stick with them for the company trades!

I think you are right though its going to be a very long and bumpy road, the likes of which nobody has seen before, or is really expecting. I think in 2025 on 10y chart it will look obvious what one *should* have done, but I expect some serious shenanigans on the way there that will make it really hard to actually do it. (it will make the $15 -> $1200 -> $160 look like the teacup ride).

Or it will all go to shit. Can't ever forget that part Wink
906  Economy / Speculation / Re: Perfect plan on: February 27, 2015, 09:53:56 PM
Buy bitcoin for $250
Wait until it goes back to $300 and sell

Let's say you invest 50 000 euros, you'll get back 60 000. That's easy 10 000 euros. Of course you can invest more if you have. What do you think?



Buy low and... sell high?

It just might work!

907  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - 68 PARTICIPANTS on: February 27, 2015, 09:50:13 PM
dat loch ness triangle tho

908  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - 68 PARTICIPANTS on: February 27, 2015, 08:46:32 PM
why all the selling? I expect a breach of the 265 USD barrier and we will go towards 300 USD. Downtrnd resistance is breaking!

Virtual Bitcoins are virtually worthless. Virtual Bitcoin is dead and will go to nowhere but down. Cut your loose  Cheesy

Virtual Bitcoins offer no advantage over virtual Beanie Babies ^_^

@sgbett Starts to look like you made the right call. I apologize Cheesy

First for everything Smiley

edit: at the risk of getting cocky I think we only go back dow to 245ish before going back up. just have to try and catch it!
909  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - 68 PARTICIPANTS on: February 27, 2015, 06:59:17 PM
GO ON then, sell $253.12

You're trying to prove a point, aren't you? Cheesy

There has to be *some* pullback before next up? surely? i'm honestly trying to actually trade! I've been sat holding for ages looking for a point where I could actually sell with a view to buying back lower.

I just happen to have called everything wrong so far Smiley I wish I could be that intentionally good/bad

910  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Trading Simulator] A fun & free Speculation Game - 68 PARTICIPANTS on: February 27, 2015, 03:02:31 PM
GO ON then, sell $253.12
911  Economy / Speculation / Re: Damn, just bought 0.25 btc and now it's tanking! on: February 27, 2015, 12:31:13 PM
It never misses... Every time I buy, btc price drops right after. Why do I even try???

Don't worry it was surely going to be countered when I decided to do a bank transfer to bitstamp yesterday... always goes up before the funds arrive Wink
912  Economy / Speculation / Re: Toknormal's February Bitcoin Analysis on: February 27, 2015, 12:09:19 PM
Do I like this because its good, or just because I want it to be true Wink
913  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitstamp Volume Update on: February 26, 2015, 10:25:45 PM
...Just transferred a few thousand €uros to Kraken...

 Shocked
914  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer--Financial Advice From The Mentally Ill on: February 25, 2015, 03:44:13 PM
How about u stop bein an fagit?
More and more I'm thinking...
... fist ... my butthole ....

ellipses, lol
915  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer--Financial Advice From The Mentally Ill on: February 25, 2015, 02:53:28 PM
How about u stop bein an fagit?

More and more I'm thinking you are just a bot that screen scrapes KYM, Urban Dictionary and other high brown internet publications. The evidence continues to mount.

Is there an endgame you have planned other than the inevitable?
916  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer--Financial Advice From The Mentally Ill on: February 25, 2015, 12:54:43 PM
An image macro *and* a doge meme! It's almost independent thought.
917  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin 20MB Fork on: February 25, 2015, 12:40:09 PM
This isn't "selling fear", this is common sense.  This isn't about sending transactions without a fee, this is saying your transaction may not make it in even with a fee.  Get the premise right before you decide you're disagreeing with it.  Full means full.  As in wait for the next one.  And if that one is full, wait for the one after that.  How long do you think people will wait before complaining that Bitcoin is slow and useless?  Bearing in mind this is the internet and people complain about the slightest little inconvenience like it's the end of the world.  I don't want to see the outcome of that fallout.

OK, lets get the premise right.  If we ever get to a scarcity market for transactions, it might look a little more like this:

1) Your client would inform you of the amount of fee you should include if you want your transaction confirmed in an average of X-minutes, where you can set X.  If you want it faster, or guaranteed delivery, you pay more.  It becomes an auction market with a new auction every 10 minutes.  Full means full *at that price*.

2) Service Providers and high volume transaction businesses will increasingly do a lot of off-chain ledger-ing (maybe with side chains) and less frequent settlement transactions on the block chain.

3) Back door off-chain payment deals (maybe in fiat) will be made by some high value transaction makers to get preferential treatment by their favorite miner (who is to say that this isn't already happening?)

4) People will save transactions for off-peak times, and combine transactions to economize.

5) Others won't care and will just pay 'whatever'

6) Lots of folks on the internet will complain.

Bitcoin would probably grow a little slower, but please realize that this is an endurance race even though sometimes it feels like a sprint.  Bitcoin can never lose by growing too slowly, only by growing fatal flaws.  It is worth it to be careful.

It's a nice theory, but without the aid of a crystal ball or time travel, I don't know how your client is supposed to be able to tell you how full the next block is going to be.  I suppose it could give you an amount based on the average fee paid in the previous block, but I don't know if that would accurately forecast the amount you'd need to pay to guarantee making it in.  Just to be clear, though, (before any anti-forkers jump on this as a sign of my conceeding) even with a system like this in place, 1MB would still be insufficient for any considerable increase in adoption.  Also bear in mind that if it gets too expensive, people will just use something else.  There's a very delicate balancing act to maintain if we go down that route.  

By the time you get down to points 4, 5 and 6, I'm afraid that's where it falls apart completely.  Why would someone save transactions for an off-peak time when there will be others systems they can use right away?  If it reaches that point, people won't just complain, they'll leave and use another coin.  This leads us back to the whole "elitist chain" argument.  If it doesn't work for the masses, the masses won't use it.

Yes!  You are a great interlocutor to see the depths of this.
Without the aid of crystal balls and time travel we don't know how much the transaction should cost, AND we don't know the appropriate block size we need at a given block height also.

We agree then, that we don't know the future.  The things to come will make us both wrong many times over, if we pretend otherwise.  

I can't know that SPV client developers may chose to implement some statistical analysis of fees and offer the user best guesstimates based on the fees in the transactions of the current block...  Who knows?  Maybe instead there could be data providers that manage this prediction market well.  Maybe these data providers compete to make it so the clients are very light weight, and they deliver the information to a mobile app through an easy API?  There are bound to be people with better ideas...

What I do know... and I think you would agree... is that Whatever the consensus (consensuses?), there will be some adjustment.  Markets will respond, life goes on.  Furthermore, if the outcome of "no fork" is as tragic as some people imagine, this lack of consensus will build the consensus FOR the fork, yes?   (This would be as much a positive story in the media as a negative one...  So many people are using Bitcoin now!  It is growing up!  Much always depends on who writes the article, for whom, and how.)

We also agree that some people may use something other than Bitcoin, or else Bitcoin will change to accommodate in another way to the degree that is possible (unless and until the fork is made).

My preference is for more science and measurement, and it is possible that I am entirely wrong, which would be great.  Days when I am shown to be wrong are good days.  It means I have learned something important.  

"Any path that narrows future possibilities may become a lethal trap"

I like this quote.
918  Economy / Speculation / Re: The hardfork will make Gavincoin plummet to zero on: February 25, 2015, 12:28:48 PM
If Gavin doesn't update the bitcoin core with a more realistic block cap size, then you can sure someone else will.

The client would likely need some additional changes ... kind of like as if starting a new altcoin that just that it accepts private keys and UTXOs at some starting point (where the fork will begin). 

Otherwise, Cryddit describes pretty well why the (existing) protocol software is very discriminating to the "losing" chain (which has less hashing power than the chain with the "most work".  The two chains just won't co-exist even if there is a certain percent of miners that will continue to mine on it:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=941331.msg10440800#msg10440800

People would do very well to read and understand that thread. It explains perfectly why there is no such thing as gavincoin, and why all of the frothing about hard forks is just so much internet drama. Thanks for (re)posting this! Information is what will kill the FUD.
919  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer--Financial Advice From The Mentally Ill on: February 25, 2015, 12:24:31 PM
^Patients are released from insane asylums when they no longer represent a physical threat to themselves or to others.  Not because they're all better.
This goes double if the patient in question stops taking his meds, because he thinks that modern medicine is a plot to destroy humanity.

That said, there's nothing wrong with being mentally ill.  It's taking financial advice from the mentally ill that I have issues with, hence thread topic.

The insanity of someone who is convinced there is a 'sane' and that they are it, is far more dangerous. Physician, heal thyself.
920  Economy / Speculation / Re: Those hodling >10btc since last ath on: February 22, 2015, 12:21:08 AM
I would sell 10% of my coins at some dollar amount over 2k. I wouldn't consider selling up to 50% unless they are somewhere north of 5k.

However, the next bubble will take all of our breath away. There just aren't enough coins to divide up amongst all the people that will try and buy one.



If you keep telling yourself that long enough then one time it might become true. Hopium is one hell of a drug.

Not half as bad as not taking your Justincaseium medicine Smiley
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