You are thinking that 200 BTC is enough?

or does the amount need to be a wee bit more?

Hey, if such bar/restaurant does NOT pay as much as the saved (stacked) BTC, then why work? Even if such working BTC HODLer might feel like s/he/they is doing a good thing for society or the BTC community by selling food, drinks and services for BTC?  

When s/he/they might be able to exercise an option of NOT working and sustaining him/her themselves in a similar standard of living - sans the drolling obligations of work?

Reminds me a little bit of a waiter that I met in a restaurant a few weeks back.  He was probably a few years older than me, and we knew some of the same people my age around the area that I would have gone to school with, so we had some similar child roots.  My eating companions introduced me to him as someone from the area, and told him that I had recently travelled back to the area.  The waiter asked me what I did for a living, and I said that I did not really do much of anything in recent years, except travel.  I said that I had been working a few years ago, but I was largely done with working and I was in the midst of planning another trip.. trying to decide where to go, exactly.. based on some current difficult world-wide dynamics.  

Out of familiarity, he seemed to have shown himself to be a bit bitter about my current status, and made a remark to suggest that I should still be working.  I was caught off guard by the directness of his hostility, and I did not want to say anything to make him feel worse or to cause more resentment from him because in some ways I know that I am privileged to have gotten to a status in life where I don't really do much of anything except for projects that I want to do, but it was not like I had opportunities in life that would have been greater than his opportunities.. we came from a similar place, and we were about the same age..   In essence, I started from very modest means, and he seemed to have recognized that, so it seems that I just may have made some better choices along the way... (and maybe got lucky by some of those choices, too) seems to me.

Anyhow, back to the original topic regarding whether we might want to have a J.O.B., even if we have other options.. sure.. I believe that we all might not mind contributing to society in some kinds of ways, perhaps?, but by the time we get to a certain age, there may be fewer reasons that we want to contribute in ways that are not really of our own choosing.. so maybe we would prefer to contribute, if at all, in ways that are completely of our own choosing, right?

Even the most pleasant of J.O.B.s, might start to feel a bit taxing when the quantity of BTC that we have in our wallet(s) might facilitate other seemingly better options.. meaning that we might start to have options to NOT be tied to certain J.O.B.s, that tie us down geographically or in activities at times that are NOT really of our choosing, right?

Even the boss and the owner likely has obligations that get to be too much, and surely if working as an hourly or tips based employee, the feelings of routine might feel even worse to be stuck with fewer options, no?

By the way, for my own calculations of "fuck you" status, I have recently revised my old numbers to convert away from the 200-week moving average to the 208-week moving average.  I am thinking that I prefer the 208-week moving average because it is more closely aligned to 4 years, and gives me a little bit more conservative number... but even the 208-week moving average is at nearly $6,700, currently as I type this post - and so it is only about $250 lower than the 200-week moving average (at about $6,950)... I would rather error in my own personal calculations on the side of a wee bit more conservative....

So, the 208-week moving average gives "fuck you" status at about 298.5 BTC (presuming a $2 million dollar entry level, yet understandable that different WO peeps are going to find their "fuck you" entry level target amount to be in differing places - even though I consider $2 million to be largely workable and reasonable overall as a hypothetical entry level for "fuck you" status... maybe 10 years ago $1 million would have been reasonable.. and maybe 10 years from now, $4 million will be reasonable, as a "fuck you" status entry level.. .overall, it probably depends upon how inflation continues.. but surely based on the practice of debt economies (Keynesian, money printer go Bbbbbrrrrrr, style) we would expect ongoing inflation of around doubling or so in the next 10 years-ish?)...

I do not disagree with anything that you say, cAPSLOCK.

I do find a bit of tension between bitcoin and some of the values that seem to underly the debt-ridden systems that seem to have gotten themselves into bigger and BIGGER messes with the passage of time. 

I don't want to claim to be any kind of philosopher either, but sometimes, it seems to me that some folks seem to equate all state actions with irresponsibility, and none of us can really deny that the level of corruptness that seems to have come from the current status of money printing causes the state to get blamed for everything - and then the solutions seem to be anti-state - and really I have difficult times believing that all societal problems are going to get resolved through voluntary-isms... so in some sense there seems to be some needs for public oriented institutions to take care of and ration public issues / resources that would not likely get resolved with pure volunary-ism systems.

So merely because states have been irresponsible in their money printing does not seems to suggest, at least for me, that their are no state roles - and hopefully bitcoin can help to bring (create incentives for) some responsibility to state actors to act in the public interest. 

I would suggest that even though bitcoin maximalist may have strong libertarian tendencies, there still are various gradations of ideas and even gradation of recognition of needs for the state - even if many folks will ongoingly get frustrated with various actions of the state and even individual players who are abusive when they are in governmental roles and they are supposed to be representing public interests rather than their own or some more narrow interests that conflict with broader public concerns/preferences.

I have met people from various religions who are hateful and judgemental and others who are quite good and decent people... so religion does not necessarily resolve some of the issues that seem to be taught on a regular basis when some people might not practice what they seem to be learning.. or maybe they have a BIG ego, too...   I am not saying it is an easy balance, just making an observation of sometimes BAD peeps who proclaim to be religious and even seem to practice their religion on a regular basis but then still seem to have a lot of hate, jealousy and/or judgementalism within the way the3y carry themselves during times that I have met with them.  

I am also not proclaiming myself to by holier than thou either, and sometimes each of us can have our bad days, and sometimes I lose my patients with certain udder peeps too..  Sometimes I conclude (or judge): "hey, you seem to be causing a vast majority of the problems about which you are regularly complaining."


Hahahahahahaha

Sometimes there are short-cuts to learning... and I am glad that you, lightfoot, seemed to have had taken a shortcut in that regard.

I am also glad that you shared such shortcut learning with us,  WO peeps.

       

I was considering creating a thread that would rate the podcasts in terms of bitcoin maximalism - and perhaps describing some other qualities... but   I have not yet gotten around to it... of course, there seems to be some need to eliminate some of the shitcoin podcasts (or at least highlight if they are problematic or sometimes deviate into shitcoin nonsense), because otherwise get overwhelmed with nonsense...

I actually do not mind some shitcoin discussions in podcasts as long as the host(s) is (are) a bitcoin maximalist, because then s/he (they) will tend to keep the shitcoiners reigned in, somewhat.


Yes, exactly.. in a thread there could be a kind of loose rating that might help to guide a bit in terms of which ones are better.. and maybe some are more technical or layman (or beginner) or even giving some description might be helpful, too.

Besides those listed by VB1001 in this link,
I will also add:

Bitcoin Rapid-fire by John Vallis

Bitcoin takeover Podcast by Vlad Costea


On The Brink with Castle Island

Total Bitcoin by Keyvan Davani

Reckless Review by Udi Wertheimer and Lawrence Nahum

The Unhashed Podcast by Private Key Publishing

Oh.    Now, the sentence makes MOAR senses.



I am going to proclaim that I post as many words as needed.    


 


I would NOT characterize BTC prices as "going down", exactly... more like stuckity...  half way up...

If the BTC price were going down, for example, I would have some buy orders filling in recent times.

My personal evidence, which seems to be based on the BTC prices, has been that in the past month and a half, I have ONLY had one BTC buy order fill - and I had five sell orders fill..... which to me, adds up to that the BTC prices have largely been going up more than down, even though such UPpity has been a wee bit slowity.  

Like what?

Sit around twittling our thumbs?


 


Yes... PlanB has been struggling, and suffering dearly....

Stock to flow is ded.

RIP.....

 

Sorry about the Covid issues with you and your wife, and regarding mining, there seemed to have had been some expectation that difficulties would go down or stay flat, and it seems to be ongoingly increasing (rather than either flat or down),

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

and surely that likely continues to create considerable incentives for cheaper and cheaper electricity including likely giving more advantages to those miners who are able to take advantage of larger scale operations (known as economies of scales in economics).  No doubt bullish for bitcoin to continue to have so much ongoing attention on (and investing into) bitcoin mining, even though smaller operations do seem to continue to get forced out.

I agree with everything that you say, Ivomm spiritually and tonally.... except, I quibble a bit with the way that you say the above part of your post that I bolded:
>>>>>>>>"and at some point will decouple from stocks as it was often in the past"<<<<<<

Sure, technically you are correct that we have short-term fewlings of correlation - but what real peeps that matter gives any fucks?... such short-term correlation is hardly even worth mentioning, even if it is technically correct because it is largely irrelevant, too...  AmInotkoreck?



In essence, bitcoin is not correlated to any other assets including equities, gold or anything else - even if some of us might want to have fewlings that it is.

NONSENSE>... ...   believe such actual correlation at the peril of ur lil selfie.!!!!!    


 

That's what I am talking about, willis!!!!!

Going to be a lot more acrobatic maneuverings to be trying to argue correlation from those visuals, but correlation wannabes, gonna correlate... based on all of them dipping at the same time in March 2020.. or some other nonsensicals like dat.   

 






 

Today, Peter Mccormack posted a 1 hour 43 minute Podcast (What Bitcoin Did) interview with Saylor, in which (at about minute 25) Mccormack asked Saylor what he thought about funding bitcoin development, and Saylor seemed convinced that funding a developer would be a good idea... so during such interview, Saylor seemed to have decided during that his company would be funding a bitcoin developer in the near future... a good interview overall.. with a bit of breaking news, at the same time.    

What does it mean, bitebits?


That's even better than a pee pic.  


Oh my DaRude!!!     

Tell me it is not so.

I thought there could hardly be anyone who has an actual average cost per BTC that is anywhere near $20k, unless s/he/it happens to be a pretty bad gambler, or someone who employs margin.

Anyone who actually accumulates BTC by using regular methods (no leverage), should not have average costs anywhere near $20k, right?  AmInotKoreck?

That b called koreck, to me.

No need to wait months, even though don't rule any lil tinglie out, either.

Frequently, we get these bear calls - but for some reason the BTC price keeps going up, and hopefully NOT too many newbies get tricked out of scenarios that involve waiting to buy coins at a lower price that might not happen...


But hey, their FOMO tears do help to fuel later irrational UPpity.  Doesn't really hurt the HODLers - even though I have seen a lot of no coiners, precoiners, fence sitters and waiting for DOWNitiers, failing to act... and pee pare for UP.

Yes....

Exponential growth curves look something like this:



Look at the telephone over about 100 years to go from introduction to 95% adoption... it took a while before it really saturated.

One thing about bitcoin, is that the token itself is monetized.. which makes for an interesting dynamic of not having to invest exactly in any one company or combination of companies, but instead the unit itself... interesante!!!!  No?

Couldn't hurt to have some variation of the bullish bitcoin message.  I watched the waves, and largely agreed with the tingilies that were rising from within me.  




Difficult to speculate whether you are serious about your poll, when your answer seems to be "none of the above," and you did not give none of the above as an option... also, you rolled ur lil eyes at us, too.

About a month ago, I had mentioned in another post (in another thread) that I thought that the the most likely BTC price location for the end of the year would be between $13,880 and $17,250, which seems to overlap your second and third choice, and I still think that is the most likely location, but hey, there are a lot of parts of the percentage spectrum between $0 and $200k, so maybe even if I attribute $13,880 and $17,250 as having the highest chances, I still may only attribute 25% to 30% to such prediction.. but it seems to be the highest in my mind currently (or maybe it is just how I am feeling, especially after watching that V8-linked video).  


You mean that the $9,600 CME gap might not get filled.

I am ssssssoooooooo disappointed.


 

One thing about investing in corn or anything else, usually the stage in which people get into a kind of interactive and circumspective investing approach, there should be a kind of forcing about how they are using debt.

Personally, I would not even be suggesting that debt is a bad thing, in the event that it is attempted to be used as a kind of leveraging play.  The financial system and world in which we have lived in the past 30 years or so has been becoming more and more stacked in such a way that strategic use of debt has been almost one of the ONLY ways to really get ahead for normies who might start out with little to no networth, but are able to get access to credit and banking services.

Of course, individuals should have been attempting to structure their own debt situation in ways in which they are earning more on the debt than they are paying in fees and interest... or alternatively, using such debt to get into strategically advantaged situations that they would not otherwise have been able to get into.

In the path of using debt to your advantage, getting out of debt; however, should be the goal for most peeps and getting into a position in which building up assets are working towards increasing networth should be a goal too.. because I would think that having positive networth gives way more options in terms of NOT having to account to anyone - even though debt still might continued to be used, even as networth grows higher, and also can be used as a kind of "fitting in the system" way, too... NOT to draw too much attention to ur lil selfie.

Also, I would think... surely getting into more positive networth territory, would give more freedom than to be constantly servicing debt.. and perhaps reporting to others or even being subject to some of the changes in the debt servicing terms.. but hey there are some people who make a habit of living high off the hog and above their means, but do not really get to places in which they actually have positive networth... and really does seem that bitcoin does provide an investment vehicle that will actually leverage a kind of assurance to increase the odds of getting out of debt and ensuring positive networth.

I am glad that you did not interpret my post in terms of asking you to reveal very many particulars in regards to your BTC stash size... or even any personal details that go beyond what you might be ready and willing to share or that might potentially jeopardize your OPsec.

I suspect that several of us have learned to dance around those kinds of personal subjects in a variety of ways - even though sometimes some details might need to be discussed in order to know about various references that are being made.. in your case, it was the hamburger flipping scenario.. or not.  

Whether you are literally referring to a potential need to engage in burger flipping or some other JOB skill that is outside of your preference might not necessarily need to be specified with any kind of precision in order to still get the points across... which you largely seem to have done.

Seems also that if any one is coming out with some specifics, like flipping hamburguesas, as you did, then frequently some prodding for follow through will be worth attempting, which I did do.


Can't go back in time, but that's too bad... as you can see from the previous DCA link that I had provided that attempted to connect with the length of time of your forum registration.


 Well that's too bad, too - though I do understand that some peeps have actually determined that they may be better able to accumulate BTC through mining or otherwise engaging in shitcoin activities rather than directly engaging with BTC...   I will try NOT to judge you too harshly, since I do not recall you ever pumping shitcoins in this thread.. so at least there is that potentially redeemable angle..

And, also, if you largely have come to realize that BTC is the ONLY coin that is really worth HODLing in the longer  term, then there is something redeemable about that, too...


Just by your way of framing your pre-2017 BTC investment perspective, it appears that you realized that your earlier BTC investment perspective was likely a bit too conservative.  I do understand that sometimes people will invest into bitcoin with a relatively modest approach, maybe something like 1% of their overall investment portfolio in bitcoin, but their particular circumstances could have easily justified a way more aggressive BTC approach - something closer to 10% may well have been way more prudent for their circumstances, even if it was quite a bit more aggressive of an approach.... sometimes we are not going to get very far with out some amount of aggressiveness.  

Also, over the years, I have seen some people limit their BTC investment size by never buying BTC and asserting that they ONLY "earn" BTC, and there are circumstances in which those kinds of self-imposed limitations also seem to have caused those kinds of peeps to NOT be sufficiently aggressive in their approach to BTC and therefore when the BTC price pumps come, they have hardly any BTC at stake in order to really experience some kind of meaningful profit levels.  

On the other hand, there are some folks who have also done quite well with their lil selfies with a relatively modest investment into BTC even something like a mere 1% investment into BTC, too.. and then just ride out a cycle or two.. and woaza!!!!.
 

I agree with the spirit that overcompensating sometimes does not work too well either, as you seem to have had learned.


Many of us longer term BTC HODLers have witnessed that drops in BTC can be quite brutal, especially for folks who may have gone too aggressively, as you seem to have suffered from such...  

I did have to shave a bit of BTC off in the November 2018 to February 2019 - ish time-frame, too based on some contracts that I had started in about March 2018, and a lot of bills ended up coming due at NOT such a great time in the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019... so maybe I had ended up shaving off something in the territory of 5% of my BTC stash by sales of BTC and/or failings to buy BTC at those discount prices because of crunches on my cashflow around that worser BTC price time.  

I am not really clear, even with my own looking back, if I have really made up for some of that, but I sense that I could have probably handled those cashflow projections a wee bit better....

And maybe there were similar circumstances for me in early 2015 - in which the market was at a low (around $200 to $250), and those very extreme periods of low BTC prices cause stresses on  my cash flow.., including that emergencies seem to be inclined to come during those kinds of cashflow stressed periods.  In early 2015, I had a kind of business cashflow related emergency, and it was not even directly related to my BTC activities, and even though I was not forced to sell any BTC... I was put in uncomfortable positions, and largely,  I was able to dance around some of the cashflow shortages - but there was a period of about late January 2015 to April 2015 that I was not able to buy any BTC and to take advantage of lower BTC prices that were largely in the lower $200s, and then the remainder of 2015, I had not been able to buy very many BTC, either because I had blown a lot of my wadd in 2014, when BTC prices were much higher.


Well, that does not sound too bad.  I read ahead a little in your post and if you can maintain yourself until 2024, then a minimum of $50k for BTC would keep you in decently good shape, and $100k or more would put you in a kind of jollyland.  Fair enough.  Fair enough.


I doubt that you need to reiterate various specific problematic issues with staying active in today's modern working world in order for any of us to understand that transitioning into partial fuck you status would be preferred, if possible and if you are able to maintain it... and yes, I can appreciate that there is a kind of gambling angle to your plan forward, too.
 

Yes. Some amount of deferred maintenance can be acceptable, as long as it does not end up biting you in the butt.
 

Even though we can appreciate that there appears to be a bit of a gamble in your numbers, at least your timeline seems to provide for decent odds that your gamble could end up paying off... we could have 1, 2, 3 or even more exponential BTC price movements in that time period - but surely, if you weigh putting your money in BTC versus putting you money into some other investment, it does seem to better to have a decent practicality  in these times and potential asymmetry in these times in betting on BTC rather than in some other asset classes, ... at least in these times.. and ultimately, you have to decide what ratio that you believe works decently well for you in terms of your own particulars.

It could be the case that 5-7 years down the road, your neighbors will be saying amongst themselves:  "damn psycodad had been letting his property go to crap.. all of a sudden he's got the nicest place on the block.  I wonder if psycodad has some kind of secret? perhaps bitcoin?"      And, of course, you will plausibly deny any of that, right?  

You may have likely realized that in recent times, my BTC cashing out scenario have remained a bit more conservative than yours because in recent times, I have been using the 200 week moving average as my measuring price point in terms of attempting to hypothesize over various kinds of fuck you status based on current location of that 200 week moving average (which currently  is at about $6,800 as I type this post), and maybe projecting it ahead for conservatively at a BTC price appreciation of 6% per year and when I am feeling more aggressive in my calculations, using 12% per year as my attempt to project ahead in a more bullish kind of way... so if I am using the 200 week moving average as my base starting point, then I am counting on the dips largely staying above that 200 week moving average line.. even though such line could start to go down or sideways, but in recent times, it seems to be approaching appreciation of about $100 per week, which seems to be a good thing for measuring purposes - and even causing conservative fuck you status projections to seem more aen  more bullish.

Surely, I am not asserting that your BTC price projections (hopes, forward) to attempt to anticipate the top, rather than my current approach of attempting to measure the bottom might not work out for you, but I personally feel a lot more comfortable going with conservative numbers and attempting to measure the bottoms in making my planning ahead in regards to potential or current fuck you status cashflow projections.


Of course, it is good to have Plan B scenarios, too.. and a variety of options in terms of areas in which you might be able to earn more money or cut back on some of your weekly/monthly spending/expenses, too.


If you and the missus are mostly on the same page too in terms of discussing options or ways to make a lot of the various financial scenarios work out, including considering various income generating options or spending cutting options, and planning for various scenarios, then that would NOT necessarily be a bad thing, either.  And, if you have gone over various investment and allocation scenarios, and you are largely on the same page, what is there to complain about?   - just hope that some variation of the better possible scenarios play out than the worser case scenarios, right?


Surely, you have to come to your own assessment regarding the asymmetric nature of the BTC bet, and of course there are a whole hell of a lot of us who are pretty damned bullish about future BTC scenarios, including yours truly - and several others, especially in this thread - but in the end, you are the one who has to personally decide how to play the cards that you got because you are the one who is going to have to live with your own allocation decisions and conclusions and hopefully, you are not coming to them from any bad sources on the interwebs, too..  

By the way if bitcoin goes to fuck, some of us here may well be crying in our own milk (and maybe we were lying the whole time that we did not have a pot to piss in), and we are not going to have any time to hear sob stories from you and the missus about how you might not have had a sufficiently adequate plan b in case this bitcoin thing does not catch on by 2025 or 2030 or whenever..... hahahahaha  

Woaza!!!!  mindblown.. observing $11,421

Insert green dildo going from $11,097 to $11,421 within a matter of 5 minutes, or less.

I am going to speculate that you have been accumulating BTC at minimum of about $100 per month for the past 5 years - and therefore you have already accumulated a BTC stash of at least more than 4 BTC.....  (See this BTC DCA estimator, currently set at 5 years but can be adjusted to view different possible timelines)

If you keep accumulating BTC for another 5 years, maybe, at minimum, you could accumulate another 1 to 2 BTC, so therefore you should have at least 5 BTC, and perhaps 6 or more BTC.

Maybe flipping burgers will still be necessary, depending on how much capital you need, and whether I have underestimated the size of your stash, and of course, there are no guarantees that bitcoin is going to appreciate more than 10x from here in the next 5 years, even though I would think that you have decent odds of two more BTC price cycles that could well get you more than 10x BTC price appreciation.

Seems like you have not provided enough details... Based on the totality of your personal circcumstances and how you anticipate them to be in about 5 years, how much of a BTC price appreciation do you believe that you would need in order to feel comfortable to transition out of burger flippening?

Seems to me that you have engaged in a lot of good introspective and personalized thinking there, and some of your plans have evolved a bit over the years to become somewhat more solid and specific because you have spent a couple of years in a kind of solid BTC accumulation mode with a better idea regarding how your BTC stash is building up with the passage of time.

You also have established a pretty decently solid projection regarding how much BTC you should be able to accumulate over the coming years and even tentatively projecting out your balance for 15 years in order to have decently good chances of reaching your personalized version of fuck you status goals.

Surely, seems reasonable to me to be projecting out 15 years, because a lot of people take 30 years or more to attempt to accumulate for their retirement (or fuck you stash) and still after 30 years have not accumulated enough of a stash value in order to actually be able to meaningfully follow through with anything close to the level of comfortable retirement that they were anticipating.. and sure sometimes goals have to be tempered down in order to account for the reduced value of their investments and their failure to really establish a sufficiently large enough investment stash.

Sure it is possible that BTC never reaches gold parity, and maybe still you will not have been a failure in having had counted on BTC, but instead had a bit more modest of a bitcoin stash value than expected.  Maybe it would not be bad to consider a scenario (not saying that it is likely) in which BTC kind of tops off in the $100k-ish arena... that is still nearly a 10x appreciation from today's prices.. so wouldn't it still be possible to work with something like that? Even if it is more modest than expecting?

Overall, it seems that odds are pretty decent that BTC is going to meet and perhaps double gold's valuation in the coming 8 to 12 years, and maybe 16 years on the outside range of that.. and of course, none of those kinds of price performances are guaranteed, and you know that, too.

I personally do think that shaving off some profits on the way up could well be a good idea (even if you are feeling that you are too much in a kind of ongoing BTC accumulation stage)... especially experiencing a scenario of 5x to 6x in any time period that is less than 6 months would likely be a sign that a bit of shaving off profits may well be prudent.. even if that is only shaving off 5% or 10% of your stash.. but yeah, if you continue to shave off too much of your stash before you are really ready because you are betting on an upcoming BTC correction rather than being willing to leave those shavings behind, then there could end up developing a kind of cumulative effect that causes you to conclude that you had been selling way too much BTC too soon.  So in that scenario, if you were to shave some off, and then you shave off some more, then pretty soon you start to feel that your stash is quite shrunken, and you are then hoping the BTC price comes back down below your selling points in order that you can buy back.

Personally, without actually seeing your specifics, I am thinking that you have developed some fairly decent skills at projecting out various possible BTC price performance scenarios, so you should be able to project out a few different scenarios and be able to find some kinds of balances in order that you are going to feel comfortable with your chosen quantity of BTC sales under those various scenarios and you are NOT going to transform into a kind of desperation state because of selling too much BTC on the way up... If you are not able to project out those kinds of scenarios, then it would seem best to error on the side of selling lower quantities of BTC on the way up... presuming that we go UPpity, at some point.