Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[dragonvslinux]

the noon wall report

#dyor

kitteh has both ears perked up
1h



raise periscope...flood tubes one and three
4h

#stronghands

If you're short you're doing it wrong? Is that the general gist of things? I already know the answer 



$12K coming up next then? Looks that way for now...

[brokedummy]

I see a crocodile wearing a snorkle, prepare for submersion

[El duderino_]

I see a crocodile wearing a snorkle, prepare for submersion

Don’t watch crocodiles, don’t be a broke dummy.... Buy BTC on the cheap 

[Paashaas]

https://bitcointreasuries.org

[criptix]

Uh nobody talking about square buying 50 million $ worth of BTC and making a whitepaper how every other company can do the same?  


https://twitter.com/DeItaOne/status/1314191887524401164


square whitepaper: https://images.ctfassets.net/2d5q1td6cyxq/5sXNrlEh2mEnTvvhgtYOm2/737bcfdc15e2a1c3cbd9b9451710ce54/Square_Inc._Bitcoin_Investment_Whitepaper.pdf


/edit

nvm wasnt the first

[OROBTC]

We are still early

Jack Dorsey has always been a flag-bearer of bitcoin. So it would still be early to consider that buying bitcoin as reserve is becoming a corporate trend. Morever, he said that purchasing bitcoin was in-line with the company's purpose. Are we going to see Square - Crypto Wallet soon?

It DOES seem that positive things are speeding up for BTC adoption and ease of use:

-- MSTR and @Jack buying in
-- Lots of talk about others entering BTC space
-- LibertyX making it cheap and easy to buy BTC (after KYC), not necessary to work with exchanges
-- BitPay apparently offers a debit card that would allow for use as a MasterCard and even to withdraw FIAT$ at ATMs.

The two immediately above are important advances.

Hmm, perhaps I should try and get one of Bitpay's cards?  Another project, but that allows spending BTC easily.  GREAT for liquidity.


EDIT: Has anyone gotten one of Bitpay's debit cards yet?

[explorer]

We are still early

Jack Dorsey has always been a flag-bearer of bitcoin. So it would still be early to consider that buying bitcoin as reserve is becoming a corporate trend. Morever, he said that purchasing bitcoin was in-line with the company's purpose. Are we going to see Square - Crypto Wallet soon?

It DOES seem that positive things are speeding up for BTC adoption and ease of use:

-- MSTR and @Jack buying in
-- Lots of talk about others entering BTC space
-- LibertyX making it cheap and easy to buy BTC (after KYC), not necessary to work with exchanges
-- BitPay apparently offers a debit card that would allow for use as a MasterCard and even to withdraw FIAT$ at ATMs.

The two immediately above are important advances.

Hmm, perhaps I should try and get one of Bitpay's cards?  Another project, but that allows spending BTC easily.  GREAT for liquidity.


EDIT: Has anyone gotten one of Bitpay's debit cards yet?

I believe someone was talking about it here just the other day...

[WastedLTC]

EDIT: Has anyone gotten one of Bitpay's debit cards yet?

I have a Bitpay card -- the only issue is that I don't like spending my crypto so the coins I loaded on it and then converted to USD slowly get burned from inactivity...   No complaints for the times I've used it but I don't use it often enough.   

[Arriemoller]

https://youtu.be/rz_Z7Gf1aRE

Worth to hear

Yes and no.
It would of course be ideal to achieve "herd immunity" but there are downsides of the procedure as well as the problem of mutation.
Like the flu, you can't actually get herd immunity, and it also does a lot of damage to the economy because of people lying sick at home, not able to work.
Herd immunity against the current circulating strains of SARS2, yes. Herd immunity forever? No. This comes at a price of taking out some % of global economic power, and it also has to be a global approach, because how could you explain country A to let people in from country B, who for example are currently herd immunizing, bringing in high infection/spreading rates? Just as a simple example of global covid complexity.

Covid is still seen too much as a national problem. It's in fact a global one, in a globalized economy, many people don't see this.
We'll have to swallow, either way. There seems to be no "best practice" for all of us.
I'm only replying to you because i think you're one of the sane members on board of the WO ship 
I'll back off the discussion as soon as polarization or covid-denial posts show up

How can you have discussion without polarization? That would just be a bunch of guys agreeing.

[tranthidung]

Fun facts for today. Enjoy WO gang!

• Ignore all the massacres, pumps and dumps, in terms of medians (3 types) and minimums (2 types), Bitcoin is in its uptrend, over year.
• Volume is in low range
• 'Ghost month' is over, the East can boost volume up a bit soon

Do you prepare your Hodlpium?

• Fun-fact time-series plots for you.
• No description because plots tell you the story.
• Pay attention on multipliers

• In 3 types of median,2 types of min, p25 and p75 of daily low price BTC is in its uptrend.
• Look at p25, p75. If you buy BTC in price from $ 4155 to $10037 in years between 2018 till now, you are fine.
• If you bought BTC at a bit higher price than the lowest in a weak-down in March, you are fine
• Next target of BTC would be somewhere around $12300 (max_h)

Congratulations to all bitcoiners!  


Data source:

• https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/

Variable notes:

• Medians
  
  • median_l: Median of daily low price over year
  • median_h: Median of daily high price over year
  • median_c: Median of daily close price over year
• min_c: Minimum of daily close price over year
• max_c: Maximum of daily close price over year
• min_l: Minimum of daily low price over year (Lowest over year)
• max_h: maximum of daily high price over year (Highest over year
• p25l: p25 quantile of daily low price over year
• p75l: p75 quantile of daily low price over year

Raw data:

Code:

    +------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     | year   median_l   median_h   median_c     min_c      max_c     min_l      max_h      p25l       p75l |
     |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. | 2013      124.7      129.9     127.04     68.43    1151.17     65.53    1156.14       104     199.97 |
  2. | 2014     489.73     516.16      502.5    310.74     953.29     289.3    1017.12    382.25      609.1 |
  3. | 2015     244.13     254.69     249.01     178.1     465.32    171.51     495.56    231.09     281.01 |
  4. | 2016    575.315     588.96    582.555    364.33     975.92    354.91      979.4    427.09      653.7 |
  5. | 2017    2510.48    2682.26    2589.41    777.76    19497.4    755.76      20089   1172.61    4377.46 |
     |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. | 2018    6747.98    7109.56    6906.92   3236.76      17527    3191.3    17712.4   6310.11    8360.62 |
  7. | 2019    7583.22    8047.41    7824.23   3399.47   13016.23   3391.02   13796.49   4155.32    9411.52 |
  8. | 2020   9221.055    9445.61    9324.99   4970.79    12254.4   4106.98   12359.06   8329.57   10037.07 |
     +------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

[OROBTC]

EDIT: Has anyone gotten one of Bitpay's debit cards yet?

I have a Bitpay card -- the only issue is that I don't like spending my crypto so the coins I loaded on it and then converted to USD slowly get burned from inactivity...   No complaints for the times I've used it but I don't use it often enough.  

THAT is interesting information, thanks.  IIUC that means if one transfers, say, 0.1BTC (call it $1800 now), you would automatically received some $1800 in cash (on the card).

But, if you just left your money idle there on the card, for a month say, some (small?) amount gets drained away?  Sort of like those old "Green Dot" cards?

I suppose a way to get around that would be to transfer BTC to the card for debit card use would be just before you make an ATM dollar withdrawal or just before making a credit card style purchase.


Edited for errors...

[JayJuanGee]

Thought I'd share this, made me optimistic, like a toke from the hopium bong:

<snip>
Receding volatility and little price action may be frustrating for BTC traders, but the hardcore HODLers keep calm and continue hodling. The long-term Bitcoin's fundamentals still imply that the cryptocurrency has strong bullish potential; the only question is when it will realize it.
<snip>

* psycodad sees a slight chance he will not be forced to flip burgers by 2025

I am going to speculate that you have been accumulating BTC at minimum of about $100 per month for the past 5 years - and therefore you have already accumulated a BTC stash of at least more than 4 BTC.....  (See this BTC DCA estimator, currently set at 5 years but can be adjusted to view different possible timelines)

If you keep accumulating BTC for another 5 years, maybe, at minimum, you could accumulate another 1 to 2 BTC, so therefore you should have at least 5 BTC, and perhaps 6 or more BTC.

Maybe flipping burgers will still be necessary, depending on how much capital you need, and whether I have underestimated the size of your stash, and of course, there are no guarantees that bitcoin is going to appreciate more than 10x from here in the next 5 years, even though I would think that you have decent odds of two more BTC price cycles that could well get you more than 10x BTC price appreciation.

Seems like you have not provided enough details... Based on the totality of your personal circcumstances and how you anticipate them to be in about 5 years, how much of a BTC price appreciation do you believe that you would need in order to feel comfortable to transition out of burger flippening?

[dragonvslinux]

[...]
Disclaimer: Poster currently has 91% of wealth invested into crypto (75% of which is in Bitcoin). Assume a perma-bull bias.

Don’t you worry, that 75% will be close to 100% soon. No need to do anything.

Just noticed your message. Actually it was closer to 80%, but I'm shifting it down to 70%. Probably by BTC new ATH it'll be nearer 60%, but always 50% minimum, hence this forces you into "trimming" alts which is always healthy. Once Bitcoin tops out in this/the next cycle, then admittedly yes it will be close to 100% of the crypto I hold. Probably 90-95% again, with the exception of some ether. I generally enjoy low risk. Holding 100% Bitcoin when it is only around 60% of the cryptocurrency market seems insane to me, but you hat guys do as you please.

Don't worry though, I'm only buying alts to sell for btc (not fiat) in the long-term, I don't hodl that shit anymore, it's just a legit satoshi generator when done correctly.
With the exception of being an ether-permabull. Soz folks, but smart money is what led to this space, also atm I prefer 75-80% discounts than <50% 
End morning ramble.

[Last of the V8s]

ether ...  legit ... ether-permabull.

you hat guys do as you please.

https://twitter.com/ICOffender/status/1314183355299225600?s=20

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.quantamagazine.org/computer-scientists-break-traveling-salesperson-record-20201008/

While the improvement the researchers established is vanishingly small, computer scientists hope this breakthrough will inspire rapid further progress.

[Last of the V8s]

[AlcoHoDL]

https://www.quantamagazine.org/computer-scientists-break-traveling-salesperson-record-20201008/

While the improvement the researchers established is vanishingly small, computer scientists hope this breakthrough will inspire rapid further progress.

Nice, thanks.

[Karartma1]

bitcoin is mentioned 93 times in that report
ethereum not once
"feds don't regulate Tonka toys"

edit: further, some interesting stuff about privacy shitcoins and bitcoin privacy tech
plus
@joe007

chipmixer folks need to ponder this ^

[psycodad]

Thought I'd share this, made me optimistic, like a toke from the hopium bong:

<snip>
Receding volatility and little price action may be frustrating for BTC traders, but the hardcore HODLers keep calm and continue hodling. The long-term Bitcoin's fundamentals still imply that the cryptocurrency has strong bullish potential; the only question is when it will realize it.
<snip>

* psycodad sees a slight chance he will not be forced to flip burgers by 2025

I am going to speculate that you have been accumulating BTC at minimum of about $100 per month for the past 5 years - and therefore you have already accumulated a BTC stash of at least more than 4 BTC.....  (See this BTC DCA estimator, currently set at 5 years but can be adjusted to view different possible timelines)

If you keep accumulating BTC for another 5 years, maybe, at minimum, you could accumulate another 1 to 2 BTC, so therefore you should have at least 5 BTC, and perhaps 6 or more BTC.

Maybe flipping burgers will still be necessary, depending on how much capital you need, and whether I have underestimated the size of your stash, and of course, there are no guarantees that bitcoin is going to appreciate more than 10x from here in the next 5 years, even though I would think that you have decent odds of two more BTC price cycles that could well get you more than 10x BTC price appreciation.

Seems like you have not provided enough details... Based on the totality of your personal circcumstances and how you anticipate them to be in about 5 years, how much of a BTC price appreciation do you believe that you would need in order to feel comfortable to transition out of burger flippening?

I am sure you will understand that I do not want to disclose too much wrt to amount of BTC owned (I do not want a thug boat with a wrench going after me) but I understand that the way I said this sparked some curiosity on your side which I appreciate as interest in my person/story and  that I'll try to satisfy.

I have never bought BTC with fiat until half a year ago. I mined shitcoins(TM) since 2014 and sold them for BTC, LTC and DOGE which I consider good for HODLing over a longer period of time, though mainly BTC. Up until 2017 I mostly made sure to never have more BTC in my wallet than I could afford to lose should it go to zero. The 2017/2018 bull season changed my perspective and made me kind of greedy so I started to stack every single sat and hoped for a quick recovery (that didn't go too well as you all know). Therefor I had to sell a sizeable amount of BTC to pay invoices during the last crypto winter - at worst times even at 3k.

We went into partial FuckYou mode this spring because the missus and me could now afford a few years living a very frugal but happy life on low income and fiat reserves acquired through a property sale and because we are both fucking sick of the corporate world nowadays (read: not good at lying at customers, blaming others successfully for your failures and making yourself look much better than you are and not liking endless and meaningless bullshit bingo meetings with people that love to hear themselves talking while avoiding real work as best as they can).
I ran my own business for over 25yrs but it seems that nowadays there is no room for no bullshit businesses. People seem to literally expect you to lie at them at every occasion and discount for it, if you don't lie like the others your offering just looks weak since customers are used to discount half of what you said as lies and exaggeration.

That said, in ~4-5 years we will probably have to start getting some fiat out i.e. for maintenance on our home. 40-50k in 2024 would make things look pretty nice and a prospect of selling BTC at 100k or more in 2030 would be just marvelous. It basically boils down to when we can afford to forego completely the low income we still have.

If things age not so well until 2025, then I'd have to figuratively consider to wear a shirt with a capital yellow M on it for the night shift (ugly old geezers only get to serve at the drive-in counter at night when you can't see how old and ugly they really are) or have some wealthy relative fatally miss a step on the stairways (j/k, I have no wealthy relatives). In reality it will just delay the full FuckYou mode for longer than we hoped and wished for.

I understand that this is a very risky life plan, but then again SWMBO and me believe in fiat becoming more and more worthless over time and at the same time BTC becoming even more scarce and in demand as store of value than it already is.
Also in my whole business life all the risks I took seemed in hindsight always higher with a lesser chance of great profitability than it now looks with BTC. In short, just sitting on our hands for some years seems like the most profitable business plan I ever came up with.

[aesma]

Such plans really depend on living in cheap places though, don't they ? Difficult to live on low income if you have high costs of living, property taxes etc.