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961  Economy / Economics / Re: Why did bitcoin value fall? on: April 06, 2014, 08:16:54 PM
Is it possible to short bitcoin?


You can short BTC at Bitfinex: https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/features. Other exchanges, maybe!
962  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 06, 2014, 08:02:15 PM


It bounced off again after the picture was produced on 14th July..   before breaking again.

You're not missing anything.. he asked for an example and I gave it.

OK, but... this graph extends to September, and I'm still not seeing the resistance being tested after the initial (post-dip) test: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/DJ/2006/9/linewchart.html. (My interest in this is that I've always assumed diagonal support lines were "special cases" and assumptions are always worth reassessing - so an example showing that diagonals behave like horizontals would be a good start for my reassessment).

963  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 06, 2014, 07:31:31 PM
It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.
...there is strong resistance on this line.

There is a classical TA rationale for establishing horizontal support/resistance levels where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  There is no rationale evident for establishing a descending (or ascending) support/resistance level where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  If you have such a rationale, please do share it.  It would quite an innovation in technical analysis.


http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/supportresistancereversal.asp

You will please notice that all of their examples are either horizontal levels (touched from both sides) or diagonal levels (touched from one side).  The rationales in the horizontal and the diagonal cases are different.  The rationale in the horizontal case gains support by reversals from either direction.  The rationale in the diagonal case does not.


maybe you need some glasses!

Me too, I guess Sad There's one example of a diagonal, and the only repeated tests are on the support side - resistance is only tested once. What am I missing?
964  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Which Bitcoin Client do you use and why ? on: April 06, 2014, 06:05:23 PM
as i see it's not an easy task to choose an optimal bitcoin client

Use multiple clients! If you need to buy something with BTC online, put just enough BTC into an online wallet. Keep BTC you're likely to need in the next few months on Bitcoin-QT, Multibit, etc. (And keep the rest safe and secure in a paper wallet.)
965  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin value fall and Mt Gox on: April 06, 2014, 05:43:57 PM
Compared to the drop from the ATH to under USD400 in December 2013 the February-March 2014 period does look fairly stable. Around USD600 just prior to MtGox folding, and around USD450 now. A drop, admittedly, but proportionately smaller than the December drop (and other, similar drops from previous ATHs).

I don't know what an ATH is and I can't find it on Google.

So what caused the Dec 2013 drop?

Sorry, ATH is "all time high".

I don't know what caused the December 2013 drop - beyond the obvious "supply outstripping demand". All I know is that similar drops have happened before, without MtGox being (much of) a factor, and I'd expect similar drops (and the preceeding rises) to occur again.

Since MtGox's collapse there's been a steady decline, but nothing like the USD1200 to USD400 drop - and this has probably been driven more by concerns about regulation of Chinese exchanges.
966  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin value fall and Mt Gox on: April 06, 2014, 05:33:02 PM

That doesn't explain why there was a sudden drop in the previously stable Bitcoin value when Mt Gox went under.


Compared to the drop from the ATH to under USD400 in December 2013 the February-March 2014 period does look fairly stable. Around USD600 just prior to MtGox folding, and around USD450 now. A drop, admittedly, but proportionately smaller than the December drop (and other, similar drops from previous ATHs).
967  Economy / Economics / Re: Why did bitcoin value fall? on: April 06, 2014, 05:23:27 PM
Why did the value of 1 BTC fall from ~1100 USD in December to ~450 now? I can understand volatility for a couple 100 dollars even, but the value has almost halved. Is this due to the Mt. Gox hacking?  

Those are more speculations IMO, but I believe reasons are clear:
1. Mt.Gox
2. Other exchanges suffers attacks
3. Charlie S.
4. Then it was not bad Smiley until
5. ITS
6. China (maybe yes/maybe no)

but all of those means nothing Wink Bitcoin is not 1 year old project and it is very strong even with all of those issues there are plenty of good news too.



Satoshi went public with Bitcoin in 2009... I've been registered on bitcointalk since 2011. Not sure where you got the idea it was not yet 1 year old...

Back to the OP's question, this is Bitstamp's price chart for "all data" from Bitcoincharts - you can see than in April 2013 price went from over USD200 to under USD100 - and going further back similar falls occur with surprising regularity.

Edit: http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSza1gWMAzm1g20za2gWMAzm2g1920zl (Oops!)

I'm not saying MtGox et al didn't play their part, just that we tend to overemphasise the role of news. MtGox, for example, didn't come as the big surprise many people think it did - people had been expecting MtGox to screw up for some time, and that would have been reflected in the price long before February 2014.

968  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What happens when bitcoin mining is obsolete (who will verify the transactions?) on: April 06, 2014, 05:14:59 PM
Bitcoin mining verifies transactions on the block chain.  Eventually people might stop doing this once the mining reward becomes too small or once mining is over 100+ years from now.
Would advanced mining (quantum) solve this making only a few miners necessary to verify transactions?

What are your thoughts?

Your understanding of how bitcoin works is deeply flawed.

I suggest taking some time to learn a bit more before you start to panic about what is going to happen in the future.

Please explain us what's wrong with his question.

Thanks!

It's not the question, it's the assertion: "Eventually people might stop doing this once the mining reward becomes too small or once mining is over 100+ years from now." As others have pointed out above, transaction fees exist. This is pretty fundamental: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Myths#After_21_million_coins_are_mined.2C_no_one_will_generate_new_blocks
969  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Start Using mBTC as Standard Denomination? on: April 06, 2014, 04:34:31 PM
so, if the uBTC as a unit,  1 Satoshi = 0.01 uBTC, I think it is fit for financially. so, we suggest Bitcoin may change its unit to uBTC.

Bitcoin's unit is already the µBTC. µBTC and mBTC are both subdivisions of BTC. They are available as options in the Bitcoin-QT client.

Changing to µBTC simply requires you to decide to make the change.
970  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 06, 2014, 02:59:01 PM
they say that they are in Beta, so where are they located and do we know the owners....

No personal experience with bitfinxex, but its parent company is iFinex (http://ifinex.net/), they have offices in London, Milan, New York and Hong Kong - not sure which one is the head office, or if their offices are "physical" or "virtual".
971  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How old are you, dedicated Bitcoin forum user? Comparison from 2011 to 2014 on: April 06, 2014, 01:57:40 PM
Yes the poll should have more options. The age ranges are too broad to get an accurate picture.

It'd complicate comparing the two polls, though. Though I do agree - when the first poll was resurrected I thought the same (but by then it was far too late to change it, obviously).
972  Economy / Economics / Re: What happens with the bitcoin? on: April 03, 2014, 04:39:33 PM
What's so special about the 15th? Except the bloodmoons and the WW3 start between Israel and Iran ofcourse..  Shocked

It's the day teh intarwebs have decided China is "banning Bitcoin". Things will probably be bearish until teh intarwebs discover that Chinese investors know about Hong Kong (and other offshore locations) and that CNH is a thing as well as CNY. Then we'll wait for the next round of confusion.
973  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is Bitcoin Live Chat the final solution after MTGox on: April 02, 2014, 07:46:32 PM
It was above

See BBC News about it http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-25617931

Ahem! That was three months ago - just after the all-time high in December Smiley
974  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: mBTC@20 Thoughts on mBTC for ATMs and mass Bitcoin adoption by the public on: April 02, 2014, 04:06:44 PM
This simple change would revolutionize Bitcoin expansion, in my view. This stuff is all psychological at the end of the day. Brains take shortcuts, bigger numbers are scary, smaller numbers feel safe. Just how it is.

Look, if you and your friends are more comfortable thinking in terms of mBTC - do it. Do it now. You don't need permission from a central authority to do it.

If this is a problem then it's a social problem.

But Bitcoin is vast. At one end there are 2100000000000000 "Satoshis". At the other end there are 21 MBTC. Neither end is more valid than the other; the rich guy buying an island for 1MBTC is no less important or relevant than the new convert who's trawling faucets, 20 Satoshis at a time. What your proposal - and similar proposals - implicitly suggest is: "there is a 'typical' Bitcoin user operating in the 0.1 BTC to 0.01 µBTC range, and these users are so important that we should impose a change that we hope will benefit them - but to the potential detriment of all other users".

Let us decide what nicknames we're going to use. Let us use real-world words like "micro" and "milli" if that's what we want. Let us call 0.01 µBTC a "Satoshi" if we want. Let us reappropriate existing local words (1.05 BTC is "a guinea". Just because.) But don't assume that your system is ideal for everyone, and please don't try and seek to impose it on the rest of us.
975  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is Bitcoin Live Chat the final solution after MTGox on: April 01, 2014, 05:14:29 PM
am sure so many people have lost bitcoins but just keeping quiet. Hard to believe it spiked past $1000 a month ago

Probably. But the point is that Bitcoin itself is safe, no one lost BTC that they personally held. People lost BTC they held at MtGox - i.e. BTC that MtGox had full control over. And that's the point - I don't need to keep my BTC at an exchange, I can keep it quite safe myself. I suppose I could keep control of my cash, as well - but it'd occupy far too much space, and would be expensive to secure.

For my purposes Bitcoin is far safer - I keep possession and control of my BTC, and when I need to trade or make a purchase I can make an informed decision about counterparty risk (which is why I prefer OTC, and always use escrow).

Edit: Where did it spike above $1000? On Bitstamp it's been around $700 or lower since the start of February - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSza1gWMAzm1g20za2gWMAzm2g1920zl
976  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is Bitcoin Live Chat the final solution after MTGox on: April 01, 2014, 04:56:40 PM
With so many exchanges taking people's money down with them when they close down
I am starting to believe that cash and banks are 1000 times more safer than bitcoin
The only way to beat this is an automated exchange where there is no middle man vault.

I think Bitcoin Live Chat is now the best solution, with people trading directly with each other.
http://bitcoinlivechat.com

What exchange are you using now?

I prefer OTC trades as well. I've not tried bitcoinlivechat, but localbitcoins has worked well.

I'm surprised you think banks are safer than Bitcoin - what I love above Bitcoin is it takes away the need for counterparty risk (except when I choose to trade or make a purchase). But given the recent history of the banking industry there's way too much risk for me to trust banks any more than I have to. Having said that, I keep my BTC firmly under my control, and nowhere near exchanges except for (very brief) periods when I'm trading.
977  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 31, 2014, 04:10:02 PM

yeah thanks

nice to have "" fair and unrigged markets "" but who will decide what is fair. Ok, obviously prohibit silly bots, prohibit from trading those, who are not at least 16 old. What else:  prohibit those who live in North Korea ect.



When I think of markets being rigged 16 year old and North Korean traders aren't my biggest worry. Though I guess if the trader was a 16 year old member of the Politburo I'd worry more...

I'm not even 100% certain that I regard HFT as "unfair". At least with Bitcoin we have a chance to develop our own bots and the APIs are all open (and free, as far as I know).

But my biggest worry is "who will decide what is fair". It's regulation, and I'm instinctively opposed.
978  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Career - Bitcoin Miner on: March 30, 2014, 06:56:22 PM
You career as bitcoin miner is over. Dropping to $200 USD and lower....

STOP MINE NOW. FIND a proper job.  Embarrassed

Just $200? It's dropping to *OMG $5!!!!1!elevntyone!* soon:

BTC has come to an end.

Now $500, two weeks later become $5.

Sell Now before become pennies.  Embarrassed



PS. There's a lot of impatient punters over on that other thread, waiting for you to make good on your $5/BTC offer.
979  Other / Off-topic / Re: BTC has come to an end. on: March 29, 2014, 10:12:30 AM
BTC has come to an end.

Now $500, two weeks later become $5.

Sell Now before become pennies.  Embarrassed



If you're selling, I'd be happy to pay $5. If you're not, then your post seems a little light on anything other than hype.
980  Economy / Economics / Re: [CHART] BTC Price bearish on: March 28, 2014, 11:17:27 AM
BTC is on its way back to under $100.   How is anyone going to be able to afford mining at these low prices?

If a miner can't afford to mine, they stop mining. If a miner stops mining, the network hash rate decreases. If the hash rate decreases the difficulty goes down. If the difficulty goes down mining becomes more profitable. If mining becomes more profitable, new miners start mining.

(This is a generalisation - obviously what might happen is that an inefficient miner stops mining, and a more efficient miner takes their place. But hopefully you now understand that this is not a problem, and certainly not an unconsidered or new problem).
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