Never heard of it.

Do they trade bitcoin there?

Something seems too good to be true about how closely those fractals overlap.  They are scaled properly, I hope?


Is that where you have been Hairy butt?

locked up?

 

We are not really competing in the kinds of ways that you make out to be.  Bitcoin does not give any shits about these kinds of concerns that you seem to be outlining in terms of who has the BIGGER guns.

Value will gravitate into bitcoin over time because it is the most sound of money, and perhaps your attempt at focusing on which players might have more coins or value is going to all readjust itself in the coming 5-20 years, and the early signs have already shown itself with some considerable redistribution of wealth in the bitcoin direction...and surely, nothing BIG or even grand enough to write home about because we are still in very early bitcoin days with likely currently less than 1% of world-wide adoption, and even any kind of adoption that has gone into bitcoin is amongst certain kinds of techie folks - and maybe a few other variable outliers who had recognized the sound money angle early on.

Even had said all of that regarding bitcoin's immaturity, each bull run brings a new wave, new HODLers studying the space and contributing to its mindspace and a kind of contagiousness that spreads and spreads and spreads.



 

I think that you have a bit of perverted ideas about both how bitcoin's wealth is distributed or even the various multiplicity of incentives that bitcoin contributes to its own space along with a likelihood that even bitcoin causes traditional monetary systems to become more honest because there is a pretty damned strong sound money system out there in bitcoin, even if bitcoin is relatively quite small compared to various other traditional value systems, but value is going to continue to flow into bitcoin, and little by little by little bitcoin is going to take over more and more of the value space, even though it currently appears as a kind of blip on the radar... maybe slightly BIGGER than a blip, but seemingly tiny and unimportant at the current time.

- like a virus with exponential growth.. yeah it does not seem BIG ,... no it is doubling on a regular basis, but still seems small as fuck, but it is still doubling until all of a sudden, it starts to seem BIG AS FUCK.


 

No they won't.

Sure, they will try.

As bitcoin grows, it becomes harder and harder to manipulate.  Yeah, sure, there is always going to be some level of manipulation success, and we have historically seen that where various bearwhales hold bitcoin's price down for as low and for as long as they can, and then all of a sudden the fucking price explodes outside of their control.

Has happened before, and it is very likely to happen again.

Sure, you believe that they are going to be able to stop it at $50-$60k-ish, and maybe this time they will get lucky and they will be able to stop it at those price levels, but I doubt it.  I personally doubt it, but what the fuck do I know?  I am just saying that the models show that this kind of thing has happened over and over and over in bitcoinlandia, and sure maybe this time, they will be able to hold kingdaddy back, but I surely have my doubts and we are going to have to see what actually happens.  Hopefully, you do not sell too much too soon based on such theory of yours, phillip.



 

Your example is coming off as almost looney, phillp.

Maybe I am going to regret saying that you are nicer than me, but still.

You seem to be making up some kind of pie in the sky looney scenario about made up groups purportedly competing with each other, and none of these kinds of fantasy dynamics are happening in bitcoin, except in your head.

No matter if you already have a lot of bitcoin, such as the 10,000 plus club, the 1,000 plus club, the 500 plus club, the 100 plus club, the 50 plus club, the 10 plus club or some smaller variation of smaller potato BTC HODLers, you have all kinds of variations of wealth in the fiat world too, and some of the very wealthy in the fiat world, do not need to have any bitcoin at all and they are capable of joining any of those clubs - after starting from zero BTC.  Sure, they might not go from zero BTC to all of a sudden joining one of the higher club levels, but before bitcoin pumps, they are more than free to enter bitcoin, and bitcoin is liquid enough that they could do it,, if they were to want to.

This is not a game of just those who have coins, but also various levels of wealth are held by individuals, institutions and governments, and sure it is not very likely that some of the current no coiners are going to jump straight into bitcoin, but a lot of current no coiners happen to be pre-coiners, but they might not currently know it, whether we are referring to individuals, institutions, governments or some combination of those future entrants into bitcoin.


 

I doubt that there is any "they" that really has much if any choice about this.  The bitcoin cat is already out of the bitcoin bag, and sure some bitcoin holders are going to try to play with bitcoin, but as bitcoin grows it will become more and more difficult to manipulate - even now there are limits to manipulation, in spite of the seemingly pie in the sky scenario that you present, phillip.

 

You do not seem to know much, phillip, but you are surely entitled to having your theory and investing in accordance with such theory.  Hopefully, you do not sell too much of your BTC too soon based on such a seemingly "out there" theory.

 

These are all factors, but bitcoin is not controlled only by those three factors.   Much more goes into the extent to which bitcoin continues to serve as a value gravity pull than those three factors.


 

You are likely NOT correct, but we will see, phillip.  Your theory is possible, but seemingly unlikely to play out how you expect, from my own limited perspective.

 

Of course, currently, there are likely not too many billionnaires that are invested into bitcoin, and even the billionnaires that might be in bitcoin likely only hold a portion of their wealth in bitcoin.

I am not going to deny that redistribution of wealth might NOT end up turning out something like, you are describing, but still at any point in time, any of those fucktwat billionnaires can reconsider his/her investment allocations and they can decide to take a minimal or a large allocation in bitcoin.  So, of course, while BTC prices are lower, billionaires have all kinds of options.

No need to feel sorry for no coiner billionnaires, they will even have options to join bitcoin later, after we have a few more exponential runs.

Sure, they might have lost some opportunities to make more money, but so fucking what?  That is what redistribution of wealth looks like, and those who see where the puck is going are going to do much better than those who are skating where the puck has been.  This is not an all or nothing scenario, and so there are going to be all kinds of variations in how many billionnaires end up getting into bitcoin, and at what point of time that they get in, and they are not gong to be excluded from getting into bitcoin, even if it might cost them more to get in at a later date.  

 

There are a lot of scenarios in which there could be a crazy jump in BTC price, so good thing that you are HODLing rather than acting upon your seemingly weak assessment of how wealth redistribution is likely to play out in the coming years.


In the past, there have been various threads on the topic of coin/wealth distribution, and I did a quick perusal through my BTCTalk thread watchlist, and I found the below ones that might be kind of on such topic.  

The below-linked threads have not been updated recently, so there might be some better or more recent ones, too.

1) Distribution of bitcoin wealth by owner

2) I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen.

3)  Who are the richest Bitcoin users and how much do they own?

4) Do you think Institutions secretly HODL Bitcoin?


Hahahahahaha

Maybe that was what I was trying to say?  but you said it more tersely, cAPSLOCK.   

If 50% or 60% of bitcoiners HODL their bitcoin, it does not take very much money to push the BTC price up.

And, sure of course, some people will likely want to sell some of their BTC along the way, so keeping the BTC price up might be another question, and that is why we seem to have cycles in bitcoinlandia...

Cycles are not anything new in bitcoin's more than 10 year price history; they are already historically seen and attempted to be accounted for in BTC's currently most relevant price prediction models.. namely: 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles.



Of course, you are entitled to your opinion regarding how much upside potential there is. I am not necessarily counting on $50k to $300k, but all of that price range is reasonably within the realm of possibilities for this cycle and perhaps even up to $500k, given some of the recent sloppiness in money printing nonsense.

I personally see any BTC price accumulation that goes beyond 6% per year as icing on the cake for me, so I don't have any major problem if an exponential run does not materialize in the next couple of years (there would be a lot of disappointed BTC accumulators/HODLers, I know), even if there does seem to be a lot of shit in place such as money printing and other irresponsible monetary practices to cause such exponential run in the coming couple of years from what I can see from the price prediction models and also the surrounding circumstances that we find ourselves in.


Not really guessing.., but an educated guess based on various probabilities and strong underlying sound money fundamentals that come with BTC... as far as I can see from what seems to be going on with kingdaddy and the seemingly asymmetrical bet that is ongoingly present with it.

Yes, we agree on your last sentence regarding the comedy of your response.. at least in the sense of how much gobble-dee-gook nonsense you are able to spew out.  I did not see anything within your above post that was even with any kind of ballpark of sufficiently comprehensible in which I could respond, so therefore, I am prepared to merely stand by the assertions of my earlier posts, unless you happen to either point to something that I am missing or maybe if there were some kind of new development(s) in the case that might be worthy of some kind of response from wee lil ole me.  

O.k.  It seems that I misread you.   Sorry about that.

Personally, I understand that there are a lot of scam coins but I doubt that bitcoin gives any shits about them in terms of whether it pumps or not.

We already had our BTC correction that lasted a bit more than 2.5 years so far... and the various scam coins are along for the ride for any pump..

A lot of the scam coins were purged between 2018 and 2019.. but surely some of them are still going to be able to have some pumpenings.. and surely many of us bitcoiners are not going to be fucking around with trying to figure them out, but there are still likely to be a decent amount of snot-nosed 14 year olds making money on those scamcoins, even if some of them get burnt along the way too.

I just don't buy the thesis that the shitcoins have to die first... but I would not complain if they did.    

If you are not actively figuring out the Maui logistics, then it is going to be quite difficult to relocate there.

A lot of people rent before they buy, so a few recognizance trips (maybe two weeks at a time) might be in order as preliminary steps.. might even cause you to decide a different location.. perhaps?


I will let this portion of our back and forth exchange rest for now, and I do agree with you that there are pretty decent odds that some BTC shorters are going to get R33kt when they believe that they have employed enough capital to keep bitcoin in a certain "range."  They may not necessarily disclose the extent of their losses, but it is still likely that we will end up finding out about it, perhaps later.

Oh?  No resistance expected in the $17,250 price arena?


Could be.

i am not sure if retail is going to be driving this market, at least the first part of it... sure it is possible.. and also there seems to be quite a bit of institutional money coming in, too.

Difficult to know the cause(s) exactly, anyhow.. so I am willing to hold this question for a while without necessarily rushing into an answer.


Fair enough on that point.

BSV is not the same, even if there might be some temporary pumpening of that crap scam coin and some of the other cryptos... .

You should realize that.   

guys should not be throwing around amorphous terms, such as crypto... and worse yet, if the various bcash scams such as bch and bsv trying to present themselves as if they were the same thing.. and people buying into those scams could end up getting screwed at any time.. or hoping to screw someone else with such smoke and mirrors nonsense.

Fair enough.  I was not trying to stalk you regarding your lil visit, but I was still wondering if you were anticipating such visit in the next couple of years, or if you needed to add another 4 years to that, which would be 2025/26-ish.

Of course, you would need some time to make various transactions whether it is purchasing or buiilding arrangements before you would be likely to invite anyone over to your pad.


Seems like ongoingly decent upwards price pressures to me, but hey, we already know that sometimes momentum can change at a drop of a hat, so I would not be surprised either way... probably I put the odds of continuing up to be slightly greater than NOT.. but hey, I am in one of those 50/50-ish appraisals, currently.


Fair enough if I might be over-reading what seems to be either pessimism or conservatism... and each of us are within some kind of spectrum in terms of these principles, anyhow.  As I had mentioned before, I am largely intending to respond to the various ideas that you present rather than specifically trying to analyze your particulars...


"Eventually" is a pretty vague framework. You likely realize that I am using various currently seemingly valid BTC price prediction models as for my framework, anyhow.. it is not like I have unique ideas in the BTC price prediction direction, except just kind of rambling on about my attempted interpretation of such and maybe to tweak probabilities here and there along the way in such manners that may well differ from other peeps who have a differing view of the assignment of probabilities matter or maybe differ in the timeframe matter.

So, sure in that regard, you might even call me more pessimistic than you cAPSLOCK (and therefore implicitly less bullish than micdude, but even micdude will appreciate that there are no guarantees in BTClandia regarding 100xing your money in a few years), because I take many of the longer term BTC price predictions with a decently large grain of salt.. and generally\, like, I said, I am penciling 6% per year BTC price appreciation, and anything beyond 6% per year is icing on the cake.. .. but I don't start putting in my orders for hookers, lambos and blow until after the BTC price has already gone up, rather than based on some kind of future fantastical BTC price that may or may not happen, in spite of the various seemingly ongoingly credible BTC price prediction models.


You are a bit ridiculous and hilarious at the same time, cAPSLOCK.

Why would it matter that you make some bullish statements here and there?  And, then proclaim that such bullish statements (because you deeply and sincerely believe them) cause you to NOT be pessimistic.



 

Sure, I might be a little premature with this citttteeeeee post, but you gotta be feeling as if you had been a bit too bearish in mid-March, Majormax, no?  not that you had ever been too bearish, previously, right?        You can never be too bearish, right?  Ok... I am getting off topic.

Gotta get in my little digs, when I can.  

You can see that I am excited, right?  

Anyhow, I am not going to proclaim victory yet, but if we get above $13,880 in the near future (let's say less than 3 months), I am going to really start beginning to suggest a kind of feeling that 4 digits are over... even though we all can appreciate that nothing is really guaranteed in bitcoinlandia.

Furthermore, the next resistance after $13,880 seems to be about in the $17,250 arena.. and, yeah, I concede that we need to get past $13,880 before $17,250 becomes relevant... and sure.. we cannot even be sure that we are solidly above $10k, yet. I will concede that.

but I will also assert that we are not even close to 2021 or 2022 in terms of the kinds of timeline considerations that you were setting forth in your mid-March framing of the situation, Majormax.. AmiNOTrite?    

Sure, I was not trying to get into some of the technicals, but I was trying to make the point about taking responsibility for your actions that cAPSLOCK seemed to be arguing that he would be willing to take responsibility for his actions, while he seemed to be limiting his liability to some kind of monetary fine or whatever the "not wearing a mask" violations are currently requiring for punishments.  I would imagine that a lot of places, if we get into legal enforcement, they are likely warning people first before attempting stricter punishments.  

Otherwise, I would agree with you in regard to the level of intent that would likely need to be assessed for anyone to receive the death penalty, including sometimes the level of maliciousness.. even though death penalty varies from country to country, and some places are even opposed to the death penalty too... so sure, to attempt to make a point about actually really taking responsibility for the consequences of your actions, I was exaggerating a bit with my hypothetical.

You are describing some level of fuck you status.. even if you do not exactly specify what that is exactly.

So if you are saying a couple of years, then we are talking about this upcoming bullrun, that may well take less than 2 years to play out.

And, sure we could get $100k to $300k out of it, but since you have been sufficiently pessimistic, cAPSLOCK, I am suspecting that you are thinking that the $100k to $300k might not happen this time around.. .and surely, I am more than willing to go along with an overly conservative way of planning... accordingly, if the run has not happened yet, then my plans are really only going to pencil in a BTC price appreciation of about 6% per year... just to be conservative.

In other words, likely our thinking is similar in that regards, cAPSLOCK, even though we tend to outline our thinking in different ways... so I am speculating that you are thinking that $100k to $300k would be enough to obtain your fuck you status goal?

If you need another bull run for that, then "a few years" seems like the wrong time frame, and you likely would need to add another four years onto the 2 years that is  currently "scheduled" for our next bull run... yes, I am being a bit tongue in cheek regarding "scheduled" as a word choice because all of us longer term HODLers realize that these BTC price appreciation matters are far from guaranteed.

Do you really think that "we" already know about science related to the virus?  whether we are talking about masks or a variety of other aspects of the way that it affects people and the utility, effectiveness or cost benefits of various precautionary measures?  whether we are talking about masks or other possible protections?



That's true, but does not mean that we know hardly shit about this particular virus, yet.

Sure, we could pick almost any topic, and there would be controversy about what "science" applies, even though there are some kinds of science that are less controversial than others and even harder to argue against.. such as whether 1+1 = 2 versus if there are some more complicated variables in the equation that needs to be measured.



Fair enough.. but with a virus, there is more than just a one way street - including potential exponential spreading.. whether you believe that it is contagious or spreadable or not... maybe it is NOT as spreadable as it is made out to be?  some of those aspects of the virus seem to NOT be well known yet, even though I bet that there are some scientist that know way the fuck more than others.  There are also some scientist that are likely full of shit, too.


I will agree with you that notable figures can sometimes serve as a better example (and perhaps resonate with others) better than  not really knowing of any examples or maybe getting bad information in regards to some of the examples that any one of us might hear about... including whether the examples are anecdotal or representative... which comes with study and perhaps with the passage of time and the witnessing of more data, too.

Of course, there are some people who are overly scared and overly precautious. I have some difficulties understanding much if any benefits in wearing a mask outdoor when no people are around, except that maybe there might be some easiness in not having to take it off and put it back on, perhaps... but anyhow, I doubt that there is any real benefit in some of the philosophies of the Corona parties.. when there is purposeful desires to catch the virus in order to help with the increasing of herd immunity, if such a thing exists with this particular virus.  Anyhow, good on you, if you want to purposefully catch Corona virus and somehow serve as an unpaid subject of a study that is still in the process of figuring out a lot of the variables and a lot of the scenarios.


How about the death sentence if there is sufficient proof that your failure and refusal to wear a mask had caused the death of someone else?  Sound good?

I might have to work on my own proper "extra" stackening of sats -- maybe a few million "extra" sats will do the trick?.... in order that my future interactions with Globb0 do not turn into something like this, with me trying to get "extra" surplus from him (that fuck - nohomo):

I knew that I should have been nicer to you... can never get too much hookers and lambos.. ... and fuck monero.  #nohomo

It is not impossible to calculate.  The possibilities that the next bull run is the last one is low as fuck, so we should not be planning our lives around low as fuck probabilities.  

Your failure and refusal to shave off some profits in the the last three bullruns should be a learning experience rather than a doubling-down experience, in my humble bumble opinion.    


You are correct.. so stop doing it and stop suggesting that such next bull run might be the last bullrun when that is pretty damned close to fantasy landia...


Sure... that makes sense.


That makes sense, too.


Few of us should be complaining about recommendations to take those kinds of hold your own keys (and keep a decent amount of BTC in cold storage) prudent strategies.  


Not everyone is going to be cashing out of their BTC if BTC prices go to $100k or even $200k because they are in a different stage of their BTC investing including not reaching their BTC accumulation goals - whether that is 1 BTC or 10BTC or 21BTC or some other amount that they consider to be reasonable, and some folks have been in this thread a decent amount of time and do not necessarily have a lot of disposable income that they can invest into BTC.. so people are at different stages of their BTC accumulation.. including their time horizon.

I am all fine in preparing for the collapse of the dollar/fiat system, and even with our ridiculous system of fiat brrrrr abuse, it still remains prudent for a lot of guys to continue to keep some value in fiat and also to cash out into fiat along the way.. especially the longer that they have been in bitcoin... including peeps like you 600w...

Sure I do not know your bitcoin financial situation, but if you got into bitcoin in 2013.. then you have been through at least one bubble and possibly a bit more than that.

Let's say that you were a bit hesitant about BTC in 2013, and you only put 1% of your wealth in BTC, but your time in bitcoin had caused that percentage to go up to 50% or more in BTC, and then if we have more exponential BTC price rises, then you get into the 80% and 90% and higher region... without you really doing anything besides HODLing your BTC

So in other words, even with 50% of you wealth in BTC, you are doing pretty damned well, and you are even hedged, and BTC prices keep going up relative to bitcoin, and really you are rich as fuck when you BTC goes to 80% or 90% in fiat, and how much does it really matter if the remaining 10% to 20% goes to zero...   In a large number of circumstances, Not very much, I would argue.

Furthermore, you could cash out 1% of your value into BTC for every 10% price rise in BTC as the value of your BTC HODLings keeps appreciating from 50% to 90% and beyond, and that practice of even cashing out some of your BTC into fiat along the way is still going to leave you rich as fuck in BTC.. and the whole practice of cashing out is prudent and even remains a kind of hedge (or camouflage) to be able to have some fiat when the fiat status quo officials are getting all nervous about losing everything to BTC and they are rushing into BTC like fuck or at least suffering from the ongoing devaluation of anything that was valued in fiat.



I think that BTC holders are going to be quite well off in such a scenario, even if they only have 50% in BTC... In such a scenario their BTC would go way the fuck up, and you are correct that there are a large number of status quo players who have failed and refused to stack up a sufficient amount of sats.. and their mere stacking of 1 bitcoin or just a fraction of a bitcoin with their millions is going to pale compared to anyone who had been stacking sats for a decent amount of time... even someone starting now and someone who NOW might have trouble getting to 1BTC.



You are preaching to the choir in terms of recognition of these various problems in terms of BTC's relative value


I agree with you if guys are cashing out 50% or more of their BTC at once, then they may be running into problems.

Personally, I believe that guys can hedge in fiat with much smaller proportions and still be rich as fuck.

As far as real estate, lambos, hookers, blow, and other necessitates, I think that they can get these things without having to cash out large portions of their BTC... especially if they are just cashing out BTC along the way, including maybe even cashing out enough to cover their expenses for a year or so.. maybe they do not need to cash out that much.. but whatever, the details of guys are going to vary regarding how much they believe that they need to cash out or if they can just spend their BTC as they go.. including questioning if BTC is going to go down a 50% to 80% correction relative to fiat, then guys reasonably get worried about those kinds of short term corrections, if they continue to be a HODLer... then they want to hedge in the asset that is appreciating relative to BTC.. if those kinds of large corrections continue to be a thing.

You may be assuming (and maybe you are correct 600w) at some point in the future there will not be anymore significant BTC corrections, relative to fiat.. which would help to support your don't cash out any BTC thesis..

But guys still need to live and to enjoy hookers, lambos and blow.. etc...   So there is that angle, too.


perhaps.. but we are not there, yet.  We cannot just plan for the one day that might not happen.. when we gotta live before we die.



Fair enough.. but when that happens, many of us will have enough BTC.. even if it is merely 50% of our wealth.. because we are already filthy fucking rich and don't know what to do with all of the surplus value.  



Agreed.


Bitcoin is already designed to pump forever, so don't get distracted by its purported failure to "earn income" - that is not the reason why we diversify.  We diversify for a variety of reasons, including that we cannot eat or drink or have sex with bitcoin... we also should not be planning our future based on some scenario (total btc dominance) that is still way the fuck more theoretical than it is actuality (inspite our current and likely future BTC pumpening(s))


We can each tailor our strategy to our own situations which might have a lot of commonality with others, so there are likely preferred strategies that can be assessed when looking at the various situations of other... so for example, if you do not have any BTC currently, then it would be good to get some bitcoin up to 1-10% of assets to start and then work on DCA-ing and things like that are optimal...

Once you reach your BTC accumulation goals then there are likely optimal strategies to shave a bit off along the way up.. and perhaps even set some regular cashing out plans, in the event that you might be getting more elderly.. none of us will live forever..., so it is optimal to NOT be planning our finances as if we were going to live forever.

Surely, we are not going to agree about a lot of the details, but it is true that some kinds of  stances in regards to misinformation just go way too far, especially from supposed leaders.. and sometimes we might think that they might just be being dumb, but sometimes the seeming ongoing denials of science and facts just seems to go way too far... - like it is on purpose... so purposefully misleading and therefore harmful to too many people.

And, hey, I surely don't believe that there is only one way to view the science or the facts, and surely, I am not of the thinking that neither politics or economics matter, because those things are important too.. and can even help to determine how to focus relief based on weighing costs and benefits on a societal level, and we can even disagree about some of that..

Yet, in any event, I would include myself as one of those who get kind of irritated by the various anti-science people and the anti-facts people who are proclaiming that they are not that way.. and I am pretty sure that Cain was one of those kind of folks.. so the karma aspect of this situation does seem to apply here.. at least tentatively from what seems to had been some of his recent stances.. prior to his death... and maybe I would not use the word amusing, even though I do understand that it was meant in a karma sense rather than any kind of personal vindictive sense (though there may reasonably be those kinds of feelings, too.. especially given the gravity of the ongoing bullshit and even ongoing lying that should have been corrected more than 8-9 months after learning about this virus thingie).

I think that political division has caused some of us to find situations "amusing" based upon political stances of certain people, and I recall that Herman Cain was advocating against taking personal protection precautions in regards to the virus, such as against masks.. or social distancing..  .. if he did die from Corona based on NOT taking adequate precautions and based on his previously taken public stances on the matter that were contrary to science and even contrary to facts or practical logic, that seems to justify that the matter might be a bit amusing - even if he ended up paying with his life...

I think that I took some similar stances in regards to the irony of public anti-virus stances of Boris Johnson catching Corona and also that preacher who died from covid after attending marti gras and being so vocal about the purported fakeness of the virus. .. blah blah blah.. .

It is sad that we should rejoice (if that is what we are doing?.. but.. some of the folks kind of bring such attack on themselves too, in their earlier public anti-science and anti-facts stances) the death of these kinds of seemingly publicly dumb people.

There had been some outrageous virus deniers out there, but some of the actual statistics, including actual deaths make it more difficult to deny either the existence of the virus or that a variety of precautions and virus focused preventative measures might be in order to consider and to implement... science and fact based, especially.    amusing, funny or strange as that might be.