Analysis

[Bossian]

Looks like we will again get rejected at 10.5k?

Or... go to 11.9k because there is a CME gap at this price?   previous gap at 9.8k was filled, so you never know, 11.9k could be achieved before filling another gap at a much lower price, 3.5k   would mean 12k is the top for 2020 even though I am still confident we will not get past 10.5k, could be wrong though, wait and see.

[chunglam]

masterluc new comment: (2/6/20)

Trade closed: target reached: The target of local short-term triangle is above $11000. Which will trigger break of long term resistance line at around $10000. And this will trigger break of giant long term triangle with target well above all time high.

This is a start of long term bull run. It probably will take around 4 years. After that world will see 10 years of bearish activity.

[cAPSLOCK]

Aaaaand...

[exstasie]

The target of local short-term triangle is above $11000. Which will trigger break of long term resistance line at around $10000. And this will trigger break of giant long term triangle with target well above all time high.

This is a start of long term bull run. It probably will take around 4 years. After that world will see 10 years of bearish activity.

He spoke prematurely. This is why I focus on horizontal resistance (monthly, yearly pivots at $10.5K) rather than trend lines. Trend line breaks are not reliable. Pivot breaks are everything. Here's a look at that short term triangle. Breakout failed:



I still agree with his long term idea that we are near the end of a Historical Wave IV. It could still be months before it's complete though.

[gentlemand]

Waiting for big daddy SP500 to tell him in which direction to go 

Big daddy has now become a shitcoin in itself. I wonder how this is going to affect crypto when reality has left the room in supposedly 'real world' markets too. Everyone appears to have decided it's a number they want to keep going up no matter what's staring them in the face. Either this is a brief spasm or things are going to get way weirder. 

[drays]

Waiting for big daddy SP500 to tell him in which direction to go  

Big daddy has now become a shitcoin in itself. I wonder how this is going to affect crypto when reality has left the room in supposedly 'real world' markets too. Everyone appears to have decided it's a number they want to keep going up no matter what's staring them in the face. Either this is a brief spasm or things are going to get way weirder.  

Weird indeed. Do you have an idea on what is the reason behind this craziness (I mean - both S&P nehavior, and BTC moving in sync with stock markets)? I know there are many explanations around, but I am interested in something convincing enough for you.

[gentlemand]

Weird indeed. Do you have an idea on what the reason behind this craziness (I mean - both S&P nehavior, and BTC moving in sync with stock markets)? I know there are many explanations around, but I am interested in something convincing enough for you.

No idea. Because people have collectively decided it's something they want to happen?

Enough banks and governments have now signalled they're willing to do anything to keep the fun flowing so perhaps traders have taken that as a signal that no matter what happens they're going to have their arses covered so they're going to continue piling in. Whether that's how it pans out is another matter but that's possibly the feeling at present.

As for BTC and stock markets, that comes and goes. I dunno if I've ever seen anything to fully convince they're closely related over long periods of time but they certainly have moments.

[drays]

Weird indeed. Do you have an idea on what the reason behind this craziness (I mean - both S&P nehavior, and BTC moving in sync with stock markets)? I know there are many explanations around, but I am interested in something convincing enough for you.

No idea. Because people have collectively decided it's something they want to happen?

Enough banks and governments have now signalled they're willing to do anything to keep the fun flowing so perhaps traders have taken that as a signal that no matter what happens they're going to have their arses covered so they're going to continue piling in. Whether that's how it pans out is another matter but that's possibly the feeling at present.

As for BTC and stock markets, that comes and goes. I dunno if I've ever seen anything to fully convince they're closely related over long periods of time but they certainly have moments.

To be honest, being a techie grown in a part of the world where free markets are just non-existent, I have very limited understanding of free markets and economics in general But am trying to wrap my head around few things...
Specifically, I am trying to figure out what could happen if

1) the real economy continues to struggle (due to decreased demand for services and unnecessary goods, or just because people are scared and their spending habits change in direction of more careful planning, or for whatever other reason);

2) governments go overboard with doing everything to keep markets growing; not sure what are the methods; maybe
(a) injecting money into businesses;
(b) buying stocks;
(c) giving no-interest or even negative-interest loans;
(d) sending helicopter 'stimulus' money to regular people (basically those are no-return loans);
(e) whatever else - I am not sure what, but would appreciate if someone adds more methods to this list, so we understand what else could governments do next.

So if this (1)+(2) situation continues and gets to the point where there is a big gap between "where the free stock markets should be" and "where they are", what could happen next? I suppose reality cannot be ignored for infinitely long time. So what this could resolve into? Collapse of markets? Collapse of banks? Collapse of governments? Collapse of currencies? Nothing at all, business as usual?

[Vectra]

I don't care much about stocks being mental, but I don't like bitcoin being so correlated with them at this particular moment.

[exstasie]

Waiting for big daddy SP500 to tell him in which direction to go  

Big daddy has now become a shitcoin in itself. I wonder how this is going to affect crypto when reality has left the room in supposedly 'real world' markets too. Everyone appears to have decided it's a number they want to keep going up no matter what's staring them in the face. Either this is a brief spasm or things are going to get way weirder.  

It's hard to argue with $6 trillion being injected by the Fed and $3 trillion in fiscal stimulus by the Treasury. This whole experience taught me that these markets bow only to liquidity, fundamentals be damned.

With the House having passed another $3 trillion bill a couple weeks ago and the White House giving the nod to $2 trillion+, it's interesting to see the S&P 500 down 9% in 8 days. I wonder if we're setting up for mini version of the March crash (in which case look out below, BTC holders) with a similar rebound to come after that next stimulus bill is passed.

[drays]

Recent rallies of bankrupt companies stocks remind me of movements in altcoin markets, with their pump'n'dumps and trading of useless assets when there is basically nothing left behind them...

It kinda looks like the crypto traders have flooded the stock markets, or maybe just the same type of people who traded crypto, are now actively trading stocks . The traces of crypto trading mentality seem to be present in mainstream financial markets ATM.

This is just an impression though...

[exstasie]

Recent rallies of bankrupt companies stocks remind me of movements in altcoin markets, with their pump'n'dumps and trading of useless assets when there is basically nothing left behind them...

It kinda looks like the crypto traders have flooded the stock markets, or maybe just the same type of people who traded crypto, are now actively trading stocks . The traces of crypto trading mentality seem to be present in mainstream financial markets ATM.

This is just an impression though...

You're definitely onto something. Online brokers like Robinhood, E-Trade, and TD Ameritrade are all reporting a flood of retail investors into the stock market the past couple months. One notable demographic has been sports bettors. Dave Portnoy from Barstool Sports has turned his massive sports betting audience into a pump-and-dump army.

Barstool's Dave Portnoy leads army of new traders into stock market

Trading Sportsbooks for Brokerages, Bored Bettors Wager on Stocks

Millions of small-time investors have opened trading accounts in recent months, a flood of new buyers unlike anything the market had seen in years, just as lockdown orders halted entire sectors of the economy and sent unemployment soaring.

It’s not clear how many of the new arrivals are sports bettors, but some are behaving like aggressive gamblers. There has been a jump in small bets in the stock options market, where wagers on the direction of share prices can produce thrilling scores and gut-wrenching losses. And transactions that make little economic sense, like buying up the nearly valueless shares of bankrupt companies, are off the charts.

Even with modest investments, these newcomers can move stock prices, which are typically set by just a sliver of shareholders. On most days, the overwhelming majority of stock investors do nothing, while the buyers and sellers establish the prices. So even a small influx of hyperactive speculators can have a significant effect.

TD Ameritrade reported a record 608,000 new funded accounts during the first quarter, more than triple last year’s pace. Schwab set a record, too, with 609,000 — including 280,000 in March alone. E-Trade had 363,000 new accounts, more than double the same period last year and another record. And in early May, Robinhood said it had added more than three million accounts this year.

There has been a surge in small investors using option trades to make pure win-or-lose bets on where stock prices will be at a specific time, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, an asset management firm.

“That’s another sign that it’s these gamblers,” he said.

So what happens when sports come back in earnest? MLB, NFL, and so on? Analysts say these retail investors and sports bettors are big enough to move the markets. When sports come back, will they dump and leave? Will that be a bearish force in the market?

[kellrobinson]

I know y'all like pretty pictures



The weekly highs and lows are run through that quadratic on the left to render the traces.
The blue cyclic function follows a quadrennial cycle of bull and bear synchronous with halvings, the first one which occurred in 2012.

[JollyGood]

There is nothing stopping people from using the opportunity afforded by the current economical crisis as a cover for participating in pump and dump strategies. It will be difficult if not impossible to ascertain the distinction between real regular long term investors transferring from stocks in to crypto versus those regularly investing in crypto but with a view to pump then dump therefore no graphical or statistical data can be cross-referenced.

Recent rallies of bankrupt companies stocks remind me of movements in altcoin markets, with their pump'n'dumps and trading of useless assets when there is basically nothing left behind them...

It kinda looks like the crypto traders have flooded the stock markets, or maybe just the same type of people who traded crypto, are now actively trading stocks . The traces of crypto trading mentality seem to be present in mainstream financial markets ATM.

This is just an impression though...

[Wind_FURY]

Recent rallies of bankrupt companies stocks remind me of movements in altcoin markets, with their pump'n'dumps and trading of useless assets when there is basically nothing left behind them...

It kinda looks like the crypto traders have flooded the stock markets, or maybe just the same type of people who traded crypto, are now actively trading stocks . The traces of crypto trading mentality seem to be present in mainstream financial markets ATM.

This is just an impression though...

This is why Bitcoin was invented by Satoshi. Do you remember his first message on the blockchain? It was to be an asset to be hedged against our current fraudulent system.

[JayJuanGee]

In other words, $10k has more likelihood of becoming the floor within the next two years rather than the ceiling.

Well. it will either become the floor or the ceiling, ( maybe both) that's TA.


Ceiling until 2021, floor after 2022 , maybe. I am inclined to think it might be longer in time, but I am always upgrading my future view as price evolves.

Fair enough that you upgrade your views with the passage of time and the changing dynamics of the market... Surely is a good thing, and no need to get paralyzed by these matters.. by adapting your theories.

Nonetheless, it is interesting to me (and maybe a bit frustrating too) that you seem to largely discount currently persuasive BTC price prediction models...

We will see.. carrying out the sub $10k until late 2021 is a long time in bitcoin, and as I mentioned several times, I think the odds are quite highly against such an outcome, so we will see how it plays out...

I am looking forward to pointing at you in the near future (and hopefully laughing), before late 2021 to show you that $10k has become the floor...    little dumb things like that in life give me many pleasures.  

Sure, I might be a little premature with this citttteeeeee post, but you gotta be feeling as if you had been a bit too bearish in mid-March, Majormax, no?  not that you had ever been too bearish, previously, right?        You can never be too bearish, right?  Ok... I am getting off topic.

Gotta get in my little digs, when I can.  

You can see that I am excited, right?  

Anyhow, I am not going to proclaim victory yet, but if we get above $13,880 in the near future (let's say less than 3 months), I am going to really start beginning to suggest a kind of feeling that 4 digits are over... even though we all can appreciate that nothing is really guaranteed in bitcoinlandia.

Furthermore, the next resistance after $13,880 seems to be about in the $17,250 arena.. and, yeah, I concede that we need to get past $13,880 before $17,250 becomes relevant... and sure.. we cannot even be sure that we are solidly above $10k, yet. I will concede that.

but I will also assert that we are not even close to 2021 or 2022 in terms of the kinds of timeline considerations that you were setting forth in your mid-March framing of the situation, Majormax.. AmiNOTrite?    

[JayJuanGee]

Recent rallies of bankrupt companies stocks remind me of movements in altcoin markets, with their pump'n'dumps and trading of useless assets when there is basically nothing left behind them...

It kinda looks like the crypto traders have flooded the stock markets, or maybe just the same type of people who traded crypto, are now actively trading stocks . The traces of crypto trading mentality seem to be present in mainstream financial markets ATM.

This is just an impression though...

This is why Bitcoin was invented by Satoshi. Do you remember his first message on the blockchain? It was to be an asset to be hedged against our current fraudulent system.

I guess it's the same for BSV since it's pumping along? BSV a safe heaven from the evil us dollar 

BSV is not the same, even if there might be some temporary pumpening of that crap scam coin and some of the other cryptos... .

You should realize that.   

guys should not be throwing around amorphous terms, such as crypto... and worse yet, if the various bcash scams such as bch and bsv trying to present themselves as if they were the same thing.. and people buying into those scams could end up getting screwed at any time.. or hoping to screw someone else with such smoke and mirrors nonsense.

[JayJuanGee]

Recent rallies of bankrupt companies stocks remind me of movements in altcoin markets, with their pump'n'dumps and trading of useless assets when there is basically nothing left behind them...

It kinda looks like the crypto traders have flooded the stock markets, or maybe just the same type of people who traded crypto, are now actively trading stocks . The traces of crypto trading mentality seem to be present in mainstream financial markets ATM.

This is just an impression though...

This is why Bitcoin was invented by Satoshi. Do you remember his first message on the blockchain? It was to be an asset to be hedged against our current fraudulent system.

I guess it's the same for BSV since it's pumping along? BSV a safe heaven from the evil us dollar  

BSV is not the same, even if there might be some temporary pumpening of that crap scam coin and some of the other cryptos... .

You should realize that.  

guys should not be throwing around amorphous terms, such as crypto... and worse yet, if the various bcash scams such as bch and bsv trying to present themselves as if they were the same thing.. and people buying into those scams could end up getting screwed at any time.. or hoping to screw someone else with such smoke and mirrors nonsense.

That's my point. No bull market until scam coins die. But hey just my 2 cents  

O.k.  It seems that I misread you.   Sorry about that.

Personally, I understand that there are a lot of scam coins but I doubt that bitcoin gives any shits about them in terms of whether it pumps or not.

We already had our BTC correction that lasted a bit more than 2.5 years so far... and the various scam coins are along for the ride for any pump..

A lot of the scam coins were purged between 2018 and 2019.. but surely some of them are still going to be able to have some pumpenings.. and surely many of us bitcoiners are not going to be fucking around with trying to figure them out, but there are still likely to be a decent amount of snot-nosed 14 year olds making money on those scamcoins, even if some of them get burnt along the way too.

I just don't buy the thesis that the shitcoins have to die first... but I would not complain if they did.    

[marcus_of_augustus]

I feel like mindrust read too much into this thread and lost the long term picture, which so far has been uniformly bullish.

[gentlemand]

Here's a brand spanking new chart from the little fella who got this thread rolling in the first place all those years ago if you like that sort of thing.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/BiymtBy3-Some-short-term-thoughts/

He seems to be in a rather confident mood.

That's my point. No bull market until scam coins die. But hey just my 2 cents  

For better or worse you will make more money on the shitforks getting in now than you will on BTC in a bubbly scenario, and exiting at the right moment of course. That's not tasteful but it's almost certainly true. It's 'Bitcoin' but it's 'cheaper' and that shit never gets old for the waves of hungry newcomers. They will never die. They may fade over time but not this time.