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May 24, 2024, 06:11:50 PM *
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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin - Previous vs Current Cycle on: Today at 05:28:58 PM

https://charts.bitbo.io/cycle-low-multiple/

Green = Previous Cycle
Red = Current Cycle


👀

For the smart people. Do you believe that the ETF + the Halving will make Bitcoin have less volatility BUT make it have a longer - although slower - price rise during the current cycle? I don't know if that's more suitable for many people in Bitcoin Land, but it could be for those people who want their mental sanity unharmed, no?
2  Economy / Economics / Re: Hyperinflation - Will it lead Countries to Adopt Bitcoin? on: Today at 04:58:36 PM
Although true, it's merely a a matter efficiency and incentivization. Those young workers, if they decide not to be "exported" and earn Dollars, would continue to either be non-productive or under-paid. It would be better for them to migrate, be more productive, and remit U.S. Dollar back to their country. I believe that model is already in use by some financially-challenged nations. It helps with the supply of their country's foreign reserves.

That would not help the country and the people left in it though. After all you need a population, specially young generation, to handle different jobs in your own country. If the majority of them are migrating, a lot of things could halt domestically.

It could even lead to more inflation. It's a simple matter of supply and demand.
Take truck drivers for example. If majority of them migrate for a better pay, locally there will be a deficit and the supply chain will be disrupted. The remaining drivers would demand a much higher paycheck to deliver goods like groceries to the grocery stores. So the price of what the end user has to pay for skyrockets too.
We saw something similar to this (supply chain disruption due to lack of truck drivers) in UK after Brexit.

In such a scenario it won't matter how much foreign reserve the government owns...


But it still wouldn't help their country if they stay at home and be unproductive or under-productive. Plus if they don't get paid enough in form of salaries for the labor, then their country probably has too much supply of cheap labor, no? It's better to have those people go through a specialized training program, then be "exported" to a developed nation to become "earners" of U.S. Dollars or Euros that could sent back to their countries.
3  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Runes are now worthless and have killed Ordinals too on: Today at 03:39:23 PM
Now try to sell them all. Order books will be thick, but only on the ask side Grin
Where Can I find the order book? Couldn't find anywhere  Cheesy

I saw só many people saying that bitcoin feels would be forever high, and nft were going to dominate bitcoin blocks... it died so fast lol

In Brazil we call this "chicken fight". Ever saw a chicken flying? Lol
I will admit that I thought that the fees would stay higher for longer, and perhaps with a bit of uncertainty for several months.. .but, yeah we are ONLY about a month out and fees have been pretty damned reasonable for about the last week or so..
It's not only reasonable. It's at its lowest after Ordinals' release and its popularity among shitcoining circles. That was a very quick cycle of money coming from the "prey" to the "predators" with nothing technically new to show for. Plus the fees, the miners' cut, which speeds up the plebs' losses to the Shitcoinery Casino. Cool

But to be frank, I'm tempted. It might be a golden opportunity for "traders" because there might be a narrative for "Bitcoin DeFi"  this cycle. I'm not good in trading though.

I cannot really be sure regarding how the topics could overlap in terms of how we might talk about the effects of runes and ordinals (inscriptions too) on bitcoin, and including potentially our own personal financial considerations that might involve how much that we might want to get involved or financially dabble in pump and dump baloney as compared with just building our BTC holdings and/or engaging in other practices to try to protect our BTC holdings during many times that there might be both ambiguities in the market but also congestion on the blockchain that might cause some of our UTXOs to either unspendable or uneconomical to spend.

On a personal level, I don't really have any problem with guys who are tempted to gamble in various ways, including if they might see some potential areas in which they might earn more money - yet we know with bitcoin people might end up getting deceived and distracted away from bitcoin, as the prize possession... so if there is such a great asset such as bitcoin itself, why add additional risks when you have nearly a sure bet (yeah, I know nothing is guaranteed, so we have to account for even bitcoin not being guaranteed either)...


I'm the same as you, I'm agnostic because technically they're not breaking the consensus rules and they're paying the miners the fees required to have their transactions in the blockchain. Who am I to tell them to leave?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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I know for you personally (Wind_FURY), many times you have claimed to come from a kind of impoverished starting point, so then there is a bit of an implication that you are having to struggle to build the size of your BTC holdings, so perhaps you are not even close to being in a position to having enough (or more than enough) BTC, so your distraction into other ways to increase your BTC stash seem to be greedy rather than practical, so maybe my own punchline consideration would be regarding how much of your BTC are you willing to put at risk in either your diversion of BTC into gambling on runes, decentralized finances, ordinals/inscriptions or whatever other bullshit pump and dump nonsense that you are identifying to potentially be profitable?  If we are talking less than 10% of your BTC holdings (without cheating about it), then sure, that might be within the realm of reasonable in order to satisfy your urges to gamble and to try to get rich quicker than you otherwise would be able to with a more pure bitcoin approach.

Also, I am not really opposed to the idea of learning about something through putting some money into it, even if there might be a bit of a waste of time element to the whole matter, yet we still come down to putting limits on ourselves so that we do not get too diverted from actual wealth building and if you are claiming to having poverty-stricken circumstances, then you likely already realize that it can take 30-40 years in traditional investment scenarios to build wealth and potentially get to fuck you status (and many folks do not even get there after more than 40 years investing and doing all the right things in traditional investments). 

So, bitcoin potentially gives you a chance to actually get to meaningful and significant wealth building in perhaps less than half of the time as traditional investing 15-20 years and maybe even higher chances of actually getting to such a wealth-built status, so why fuck it up by potentially getting greedy and/or overly dabbling in shitcoins (runes etc) merely based on the fact that you might be feeling somewhat wealthy based on your already 8-ish years in bitcoin (congrats, I see that you just passed your 8 year anniversary on the forum - can't be claiming newbie status anymore.. hahahahahaha).

So.. yeah, even folks who had been modestly investing in bitcoin over the last 8-ish years might have made a lot of mistakes and still be feeling that they are doing somewhat well in terms of their own bitcoin investment performance levels.  This can happen with any investment in terms of the psychological components of a wealth effect that might contribute towards more spending, risk taking, withdrawal of capital and/or even temptations to diversify that might not be reasonable/necessary - while at the same time, it might be difficult to recognize and/or appreciate the value of sticking to the earlier course of action that would be to be continuing to stay focused on the prize (bitcoin in this case) and not getting lured into shiny objects that may well merely be serving as ways to separate you from the bitcoin you have so far built to date and also the bitcoin that you would continue to be able to build by remaining focused on ongoing accumulation of bitcoin rather than other "possible things that might (or might not) return more."


Although I'm just a mere pleb, I'm very happy with my Bitcoin savings. The amount of shitcoinery I'm willing to do will be mere $100.00 bets for fun, not something to lose my sanity over. I'm having enough of that in Bitcoin.
4  Economy / Gambling / Re: ✨ Shuffle.com | The next generation of crypto casinos | Sports, Casino + token on: Today at 03:26:12 PM
I believe bringing back the sports wagering contests, but with a new collaboration with a service like BTCGosu, might bring more enthusiasm from the users in the gambling sub. For example if the partnership requires the users to generate a code in BTCGosu's site to use to receive a welcome back deposit bonus. BTCGosu will help Shuffle in providing more awareness and interest, then Shuffle will provide the bonuses and prizes.


I saw the previous contest about this wagering contest and it looks like a lot of hassle since you will need to forced some of your bets since the quantity is the main factor to win on this game so it’s simply a spam bet game. It’s costly especially that bets has a minimum odds and bet to qualified.

Maybe for hardcore sports bettor this is not a problem but for user like that is struggling just to have multiple bets per day makes this contest so hard to participate.  Sad


I'm not a hardcore sports-bettor, but I joined to try and win the prizes. But it does have a maximum point where you look at your competition, the amount of the prizes available, and the maximum amount of risk required to remain profitable after prizes minus betting losses. If the answer is negative, then stop. Although, a user could get lucky and win from his bets.
5  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Wasabi Wallet - Open Source, Noncustodial Coinjoin Software on: Today at 11:22:14 AM
Thanks, I believe I need to get more into the nitty gritty. But the point remains. No one can merely start a coordinator and expect it to automatically have the reputation needed for users to start sending their outputs to it.

You don't need any reputation because coordinators are not trusted.

BitcoinTalk users could start one as a community, but the ban on mixers makes the idea impossible to promote in the forum.

"Mixers" are scams that steal from you and track all of your transaction history. This is the opposite of a coinjoin, which is trustless.

I'm also asking about the outputs in the pool. If most of it is from the owner of the coordinator then he/she could trace those outputs upon exit from the pool, just like a honeypot. Or am I wrong?

Any entity with enough capital can perform a Sybil attack, this isn't a privilege of the coordinator.


The same argument. If a coordinator doesn't have the reputation to attract enough users to put enough volume/liquidity into the coordinator then it can be sybil attacked by bad actors, and essentially make it function like their own honeypot. It's not a flaw in the coordinator, I'm merely saying that  low liquidity = less effective CoinJoins.
6  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Explain crypto options to me on: May 23, 2024, 04:33:16 PM

So I was learning a little about the "world's largest crypto options, and futures exchange" how they call themselves, and even speed-read their tutorial about options.

I do understand the basics of options trading, but there is one thing I still don't understand: why options?
"limited risk" can't be the main reason to trade options. I get that stop losses aren't the most secure guarantee that your risk is limited, but they do work in most cases.
for "leverage" you don't need options either.

what is the main advantage of trading options? or would it be the main use case?
someone experienced with them could give me a hint?


I don't truly understand options trading either, but I believe there are hedging strategies that an experienced trader could do with options which could add and be supplementary to his/her spot or leveraged trades. There are also basic put and call options strategies in this article, https://www.investopedia.com/trading/options-strategies/

Options trading is something that's built more like a casino game.

Bybit has a course for options trading if you want to truly learn "why", https://learn.bybit.com/bybit-options-course/
7  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Ordinals: Rare and exotic sats on: May 23, 2024, 02:50:03 PM
Bump.

I merely posting to continue the topic and for those living in space - that the Ordinals protocol has an upgrade called Runes. The upgrade enables tokens to be created on-chain in the Bitcoin blockchain, with token data stored in OP_RETURN and balances are stored in UTXOs.

I believe Runes = for tokens, and Ordinals = for NFTs? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Casey Rodarmor is probably working on something to give users the power to trade directly on-chain - like a DEX.

Quote

Decentralized trading is a key focus for Rodarmor, who revealed his idea for a Runes "gossip" network. This innovative approach aims to facilitate direct trading between users, potentially solving issues like RBF (Replace-By-Fee) and reducing reliance on centralized exchanges.

https://theordinalshow.substack.com/p/casey-rodarmor-runes-deep-dive

8  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Wasabi Wallet - Open Source, Noncustodial Coinjoin Software on: May 23, 2024, 02:25:50 PM
OK, let me rephrase - It might take a long time before the community will find a coordinator that's operated by a trustworthy individual, or group of individuals, who will not be honeypots. Because there WILL be honeypots pretending as coordinators that will utilize zkSNACKS software after June 1. I'm very VERY confident that we'll see them.

Read what I said again: You don't have to trust coordinators. There's no way to create a "honeypot".


Thanks, I believe I need to get more into the nitty gritty. But the point remains. No one can merely start a coordinator and expect it to automatically have the reputation needed for users to start sending their outputs to it. BitcoinTalk users could start one as a community, but the ban on mixers makes the idea impossible to promote in the forum.

OK, let me rephrase - It might take a long time before the community will find a coordinator that's operated by a trustworthy individual, or group of individuals, who will not be honeypots. Because there WILL be honeypots pretending as coordinators that will utilize zkSNACKS software after June 1. I'm very VERY confident that we'll see them.
Kruw will now tell you that the reputation of an individual doesn't matter because everything is open-source. He might also mention that it can't be a honeypot because the wallet doesn't collect any information. Did I mention it is open-source? Finally, if you are not running your own coordinator then you are a pussy.   


I'm also asking about the outputs in the pool. If most of it is from the owner of the coordinator then he/she could trace those outputs upon exit from the pool, just like a honeypot. Or am I wrong?
9  Economy / Gambling / Re: ✨ Shuffle.com | The next generation of crypto casinos | Sports, Casino + token on: May 23, 2024, 11:16:20 AM
We will update their rating to 4+ taking into consideration that we, as BTCGOSU, are able to offer visitors a welcome bonus for signing up.

At the end of the day, as much as I am not personally the biggest fan of deposit bonuses, for the majority of players, such bonuses do matter indeed.

Other than that, we have been very happy with Shuffle and I am quite optimistic that their rating will improve even further in the mid-term based on what we have seen so far.

Hopefully there will be special collabs between gosu and suffle as well in the near future as you had/have with other casinos.
Although I'm not a fan of deposit/welcome bonus but I have to agree that there are still many gamblers who take it as consideration when they are willing to play in a casino.


I’m always a fan of deposit bonus since I consider it as free money given that I’m gambling regularly so I will gamble regardless if there’s a bonus or not that’s why it’s much better to have something additional to claim aside from the regular benefits of casino.

I’m looking forward for competition or free spin bonus which is not that popular these days on the forum since we are already dominated with prediction contests on sports.


I believe bringing back the sports wagering contests, but with a new collaboration with a service like BTCGosu, might bring more enthusiasm from the users in the gambling sub. For example if the partnership requires the users to generate a code in BTCGosu's site to use to receive a welcome back deposit bonus. BTCGosu will help Shuffle in providing more awareness and interest, then Shuffle will provide the bonuses and prizes.
10  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Runes are now worthless and have killed Ordinals too on: May 23, 2024, 10:52:10 AM
Now try to sell them all. Order books will be thick, but only on the ask side Grin
Where Can I find the order book? Couldn't find anywhere  Cheesy

I saw só many people saying that bitcoin feels would be forever high, and nft were going to dominate bitcoin blocks... it died so fast lol

In Brazil we call this "chicken fight". Ever saw a chicken flying? Lol


I will admit that I thought that the fees would stay higher for longer, and perhaps with a bit of uncertainty for several months.. .but, yeah we are ONLY about a month out and fees have been pretty damned reasonable for about the last week or so..


It's not only reasonable. It's at its lowest after Ordinals' release and its popularity among shitcoining circles. That was a very quick cycle of money coming from the "prey" to the "predators" with nothing technically new to show for. Plus the fees, the miners' cut, which speeds up the plebs' losses to the Shitcoinery Casino. Cool

But to be frank, I'm tempted. It might be a golden opportunity for "traders" because there might be a narrative for "Bitcoin DeFi"  this cycle. I'm not good in trading though.
11  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Runes are now worthless and have killed Ordinals too on: May 22, 2024, 05:13:56 PM


Reading the posts saying Runes are stupid.


For me personally, Runes as a technology isn't that stupid. In the OP I'm referring more to the model to create a token whose only value lies in having a "creative name" and which can then be "minted" by anyone.

But Runes can also be used for things that make more sense, of course, like as a game currency, or as a crowdfunding platform. However, it would not make so much sense to create this kind of currency on Bitcoin due to the fees. The "magic" of Runes is much related to the same (imo stupid) "value proposition" than in BRC-20: having a "valuable" token on the "OG" Bitcoin blockchain. Very much like a NFT, but in a minimally fungible way.

By the way, Runes could be probably transferred via LN if their protocol includes timelocks and hashlocks. I don't know the protocol in detail however. This is something which can be added but adds some complexity to the algorithm (basically they need either a hard-coded way to do those locks or an own "Script language").


Casey Rodarmor described Runes as something like a serious protocol for memecoinery/shitcoinery because he was skeptical of "serious tokens". From my perspective if a person wants to do some shitcoinery on top of Bitcoin, then use the more efficient Runes, don't use BRC-20.



Reading the posts saying Runes are stupid.

Although absolutely true, at least Runes as a protocol for shitcoinery in Bitcoin is better for the blockchain than BRC-20. Runes data are stored directly in UTXOs which means they could be used in LN? Plus it won't be expanding the UTXO set like what Ordinals-based BRC-20 does. That's what many on-chain users want, no? For those spam transactions to be removed on-chain? I believe Runes is the technical development that could do it. The Lightning Network will be spammed though.


I think you forget the fact Runes use OP_RETURN to store the arbitrary data, where OP_RETURN output usually isn't stored on full node UTXO set.


To store token data, but there's nothing technically wrong with that, no?
12  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: (Ordinals) BRC-20 needs to be removed on: May 22, 2024, 04:59:16 PM

But you do realize that technically, no matter how stupid or "wrong" you may think they are, those users both pay for the transaction fees and they don't break the consensus rules.


That doesn't mean the consensus rules can't be changed Wink


A User Activated Soft Fork? Good luck, truly.

Quote

Quote

my point was if everyone simply ignored what they were doing, then there wouldn't be a Streisand Effect that gave them the free marketing that they needed to help bootstrap their "projects".


I was truely amazed to see people here on Bitcointalk post they want to "check it out".


There will be the curious and the inquisitive, but in my opinion if it was merely ignored, there wouldn't be a Streisand Effect that accelerated curiosity more than it should be.

Quote

Quote

I believe like Bitcoin itself, Casey Rodarmor opened a Pandora's Box, never to be closed. Shitcoinery in Bitcoin might be here to stay.


I'm kinda expecting people to get arrested over this at some point. This isn't 2017 anymore, when anyone could create an ICO and get rich from gullible people without consequences. Software developers are now being prosecuted. Add some money laundering to the NFT market and I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen.


Perhaps, but it won't stop the shitcoinery like it never stopped the shitcoinery in other blockchains.
13  Economy / Economics / Re: Hyperinflation - Will it lead Countries to Adopt Bitcoin? on: May 22, 2024, 02:42:16 PM
so they are still going to be using their Peso and it will still be advantageous for someone from Central and South America who works in US soil. they all will be living great if they send their skilled worker to US and the country will run heavily by remittance. Darien Gap is the key!


That would hurt Argentina itself a lot more. After all you are talking about work force being "exported"! That would create a deficit domestically. Production lines would die and that would kill the economy even more.
In the long run the migration of the younger generation would have even further negative consequences on the society and the economy both.


Although true, it's merely a a matter efficiency and incentivization. Those young workers, if they decide not to be "exported" and earn Dollars, would continue to either be non-productive or under-paid. It would be better for them to migrate, be more productive, and remit U.S. Dollar back to their country. I believe that model is already in use by some financially-challenged nations. It helps with the supply of their country's foreign reserves.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: May 22, 2024, 02:31:50 PM
Bitcoin Exchange Traded Products have gotten approval to trade on the London Stock Exchange. All the small DIPs that make investors feel anxious because "crabby market", are actually small opportunities to accumulate more Bitcoins. Wait for DIPs or DCA, the investment decisions that you do today will establish your portfolio during the next bullish surge. Bitcoin may not have the best performance cycle per cycle, but it's definitely one of the handful of blockchains that will continue chugging along decade per decade.
15  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: (Ordinals) BRC-20 needs to be removed on: May 21, 2024, 03:16:51 PM


Personally, and as everyone has already noticed from my posting history about Ordinals, BRC-20, and Runes, I am agnostic about them and/or what's being built with them.

you do realize that these people storing data using ordinals are getting a 75% discount on their fees. i disagree with that. if they were paying the full fee that might be different. but even then, obviously it is nice if you limit how much data can be stored per transaction. there's a precedent for doing that you know...


But you do realize that technically, no matter how stupid or "wrong" you may think they are, those users both pay for the transaction fees and they don't break the consensus rules. It's your right to have an opinion/disagreement, as it is their right to have their opinion/disagreement. BUT my point was if everyone simply ignored what they were doing, then there wouldn't be a Streisand Effect that gave them the free marketing that they needed to help bootstrap their "projects".

I believe like Bitcoin itself, Casey Rodarmor opened a Pandora's Box, never to be closed. Shitcoinery in Bitcoin might be here to stay.
16  Economy / Gambling / Re: What is the Worst online Casino you've played on so far? on: May 21, 2024, 09:30:39 AM
Without a doubt stake.com.  0/10 if you are a winning better.  7/10 if you are a losing better.

They selectively scam people from third world countries with impossible KYC requirements.


Shocked

Ser, why? It would be preposterous to accuse that a casino that has a proven track-record would hold some sort of prejudice towards where someone comes from, no?

Quote

When you provide them documents in english, they ask for other , niche documents that only exist in your native language but stake only accepts english documents.


I believe it's a matter of policy, but I also believe that in your situation, the casino should reconsider and learn from the experience to avoid getting into the same issue again and again.
17  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mempool Observer Topic on: May 21, 2024, 06:55:33 AM
To anyone who needs to consolidate their UTXOs, then it's the best time to consolidate them NOW. I believe that in the next few months there will be a surge of on-chain demand because of another surge of interest in Ordinals, BRC-20, Runes, and Bitcoin DeFi builders will start marketing their protocols, sidechains, and offchain layers. It might be like the months of high fees that was caused by Ordinals/BRC-20.

Plus to those who want to partake in shitcoinery in Bitcoin, perhaps it's time to DYOR. Cool
18  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Runes are now worthless and have killed Ordinals too on: May 21, 2024, 06:41:39 AM
Reading the posts saying Runes are stupid.

Although absolutely true, at least Runes as a protocol for shitcoinery in Bitcoin is better for the blockchain than BRC-20. Runes data are stored directly in UTXOs which means they could be used in LN? Plus it won't be expanding the UTXO set like what Ordinals-based BRC-20 does. That's what many on-chain users want, no? For those spam transactions to be removed on-chain? I believe Runes is the technical development that could do it. The Lightning Network will be spammed though.
19  Economy / Gambling / Re: Help me find sites or telegrams to track fixed matches on: May 20, 2024, 02:14:02 PM
Desperate gamblers don't learn. They try to look for a fixed game to ensure a profit, not realizing that such information cannot be easily accessed by the public...
These people who wants to have their way like this will soon get the experience of "play stupid games win stupid prizes". Risking things without knowing the consequences is too stupid to begin with.


But with OP's  Post history here in Bitcointalk? he seems to be not a newbie or being started
which means he knew what he is asking here (or maybe trolling of there are really offering fixed matches)
or OP is like shooting stars hoping he can hit them using a hand gun  Grin


He's probably trolling. What everyone should tell him is for HIM to post fixed matches, which I believe he won't. Because if someone found a "fixed match", then actually started posting it in a forum, wouldn't the casino notice and cancel all of the bets made on the "fixed match"? It might be better to merely keep it for yourself, no?
20  Economy / Economics / Re: April CPI eased to 3.4 from 3.5 in March on: May 20, 2024, 01:46:46 PM
But with news that inflation is showing signs of going down, we can expect inflation to drop below 2% soon and the Fed to lower interest rates soon. In particular, people are more optimistic and believe that the Fed will lower interest rates twice this year as inflation is gradually being controlled.
Inflation has only shown signs of being "sticky" not signs of going down.
For it to go down the chaos in the world has to calm down, energy prices have to come down, the supply chain disruptions have to stop, etc. then we can start seeing inflation start coming down and then we can see them lower the rates. None of it is happening yet though.


I agree with what you said, real inflation has not improved too much and is still high. But CPI in April was at 3.4% and lower than before. Looking at that, we cannot be said that inflation has not shown signs of decreasing, it has decreased but quite slowly.

In addition, I think if we wait until the world situation calms down, energy prices decrease, supply and demand are not interrupted... then make the decision to reduce interest rates, I think interest rate cuts will never be possible. Because interest rates are being maintained at too high a level today, it is also said to be one of the many reasons making it more difficult for the economy to recover. Maintaining interest rates at high levels is no different from a double-edged sword, it can curb rising inflation but will also make the economy more stagnant, even falling into recession. So I think that's why the Fed still needs to cut rates first and there will be at least one or two rate cuts this year.


But if the Federal Reserved does cut rates, won't that cause reinflation, then therefore Jerome Powell would need to increase rates higher than 5.5%? That would be worse than the economy and make the "soft landing" less probable, which already IS improbable in my opinion.
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