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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: Today at 08:35:20 AM
In my last post in the topic, I said that plebs who don't own any Bitcoin will have less opportunities than those plebs that own Bitcoin. There might those who are asking themselves, "What opportunties? Bitcoiners merely HODL". I believe that Bitcoin, soon, will be a collateral asset like Gold, Real Estate, and other valuable commodities that can be used to borrow some liquidity which can be used, for instance, to start a business or for some other money-making project.

There will people who will probably say it's "risky". You're right, BUT the point is you don't need to sell your Bitcoin IF you are short in liquidity. Bitcoin has become so valuable, and so accepted that entities are willing to accept it as collateral.


It's very possible in the nearest future no doubt, Bitcoin will eventually be used as collateral in the future, but it's not necessary because an individual doesn't necessarily need to sell off his Bitcoin or even use it as collateral if he is managing his finance properly, because any investor who is investing according to his financial strength, who has a reasonable emergency and reserve funds in place will hardly think of selling off his holdings or even use it for collateral in the first place.

Though at some point we do borrow money for one or two things as humans but if you can be able to manage your finances properly, you wouldn't be needing to borrow any money in sorting out some minor needs, because your reserve funds is there already, but if the emergency situation threatens your holdings, that's why you have an emergency funds in place to combat any serious needs that threatens your holdings.


The point, ser, is that many successful entrepreneurs don't use their own liquidity to start a new business venture, or enterprise. The own assets that have value to use as collateral and use the bank's money to use to start the new business. Cool

What is the difference now? Using your own assets as collateral for take loan in the bank and using your cash are thesame thing because if you fail in that business, your asset may be sold by the bank to recover their money that was given to you as a loan. In this case I see no difference from asset coletheral loan and using your personal guns as a liquidity. The problem is that bank take aore higher value advantage asset so that if you can pay back the Cash then they may sell it and make profit from your asset.  I will even prefer to use my capital to do any business of my choice maybe starting little if that is my first time, I will know the level of my business before taken loan from bank otherwise taken loan for coletheral at the beginning of any business may not be a good one since there may be risk if losing.


 Roll Eyes

Ser, I don't think that I need to explain the difference and why it's more capital-efficient to borrow against assets that an entrepreneur already owns than using his/her own liquidity.

But if you're merely posting that for the sake of arguing, pardon me, but go do your research BEFORE even arguing. Cool

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Many people who source fund from micro finance bank could not be able to pay back and they lose their assets because they where so excited about a business they have never don before.


You're talking about ordinary individuals who are merely gambling, I doubt that they made a good feasibility study about the "business" that they're going to build. Plus micro-finance? What sort of business borrows small amounts of money, and how much money are you talking about?
2  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: When gambling has better odds than holding your local currency on: Today at 05:37:08 AM
But what do you actually mean by "gambling" in this instance? It's laughable. Instead of gambling with your hyperinflated currency, merely buy food and your family's needs while you can before it hyperinflates again.

But if you're making a debate that gambling is your way to fight inflation - LAUGHABLE. Your only hedge is to invest/save the money in store of value assets like Bitcoin or Gold. Gambling the money in a casino game will not give you hedge against inflation.

     

I think it is obvious that he meant some kind of gambling where the player is successful (it does not matter whether it is real or not). I hope you do not laugh at those people who do business in conditions of hyperinflation? After all, despite the fact that most of their capital is in assets (machines or store space, etc. I do not know), but they also try to do business against hyperinflation, which is essentially an unprofitable strategy. At some point, you still have to decide how to get rid of money that is becoming cheaper in order to somehow preserve the value you have earned.


Ser, that still DOESN'T make gambling a inflation hedge that plebs or ANYONE should consider. It's very laughable that you're defending that.

If your country's currency in a state of hyperinflation that would mean that an individual should immediately buy what he needs before the currency loses value again because the prices of items could surge again before you could spend your money.
3  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Satoshi's statue stolen. Intention? on: Today at 05:25:36 AM


  
This is the second time Satoshi disappeared, and "moved on to other things". Haha.


Funny how people get very creative with different scenarios


"I moved on to other things" is actually a famous quote from Satoshi from his last email to Gavin Andresen sent in April 2011. Satoshi disappeared after that. Cool

Quote

Quote

But to answer OP, the intention is probably to ask money for its return.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The next headline will be - "Satoshi statue kidnappers are asking for 10 Bitcoin for its return". The Swiss police you probably ask for proof of life before they give the kidnappers the money.



I don't think the set of people who stole it had monetary intentions, else they wouldn't have thrown it into the lake, They would've kept it safe and asked for ransom, also Switzerland is a developed country, so the identities of those who even projected such act shouldn't be hidden from the security system.


I was merely imagining a funny situation that people could do with the statue. Kidnap for ransom would definitely be one of them.

 

Quote

I strongly believe that it is some bitcoin critics who do not like bitcoin at all or who may have recorded small or huge losses with the recent dip that went ahead to demonstrate their  displeasure by breaking off the statue from its base and pushing it into the lake.


That would indeed be laughable if they caught those people, and they admitted that they bought the surge and sold the DIP.
4  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Satoshi's statue stolen. Intention? on: August 05, 2025, 09:59:12 AM






  

This is the second time Satoshi disappeared, and "moved on to other things". Haha.

But to answer OP, the intention is probably to ask money for its return.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The next headline will be - "Satoshi statue kidnappers are asking for 10 Bitcoin for its return". The Swiss police you probably ask for proof of life before they give the kidnappers the money.
5  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: When gambling has better odds than holding your local currency on: August 05, 2025, 09:45:36 AM
I'm pretty sure most of you know how inflation affects a country and its people, but imagine if it reaches the level of hyperinflation. Take Venezuela for example, which got hit hard by hyperinflation with over 200% yearly inflation, making it one of the countries with the highest rates globally.

Normally, we gamble just for fun, but in a place like that, gambling might actually be a way of survival. The odds of turning a small amount into something bigger could seem more appealing compared to just holding onto their money while its value keeps dropping every day.

In a way, while it goes against the usual belief that gambling isn’t an investment, in countries with hyperinflation, it might look like a potential hedge against losing purchasing power.

So I’m curious, do we have anyone here from such countries, like Venezuela or Argentina? How do you see this possibility? Would you consider gambling an escape from inflation, or does it only make the situation worse in the long run?


But what do you actually mean by "gambling" in this instance? It's laughable. Instead of gambling with your hyperinflated currency, merely buy food and your family's needs while you can before it hyperinflates again.

But if you're making a debate that gambling is your way to fight inflation - LAUGHABLE. Your only hedge is to invest/save the money in store of value assets like Bitcoin or Gold. Gambling the money in a casino game will not give you hedge against inflation.

     
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: August 05, 2025, 05:23:28 AM
In my last post in the topic, I said that plebs who don't own any Bitcoin will have less opportunities than those plebs that own Bitcoin. There might those who are asking themselves, "What opportunties? Bitcoiners merely HODL". I believe that Bitcoin, soon, will be a collateral asset like Gold, Real Estate, and other valuable commodities that can be used to borrow some liquidity which can be used, for instance, to start a business or for some other money-making project.

There will people who will probably say it's "risky". You're right, BUT the point is you don't need to sell your Bitcoin IF you are short in liquidity. Bitcoin has become so valuable, and so accepted that entities are willing to accept it as collateral.


It's very possible in the nearest future no doubt, Bitcoin will eventually be used as collateral in the future, but it's not necessary because an individual doesn't necessarily need to sell off his Bitcoin or even use it as collateral if he is managing his finance properly, because any investor who is investing according to his financial strength, who has a reasonable emergency and reserve funds in place will hardly think of selling off his holdings or even use it for collateral in the first place.

Though at some point we do borrow money for one or two things as humans but if you can be able to manage your finances properly, you wouldn't be needing to borrow any money in sorting out some minor needs, because your reserve funds is there already, but if the emergency situation threatens your holdings, that's why you have an emergency funds in place to combat any serious needs that threatens your holdings.


The point, ser, is that many successful entrepreneurs don't use their own liquidity to start a new business venture, or enterprise. They own assets that have value to use as collateral and use the bank's money to use to start the new business. Cool

That not only is more advantageous for the entrepreneur. It also builds relationships that will be needed for future business ventures. Plus your credit score goes up.

 👍
7  Economy / Economics / Re: Unemployment rate may rise in 18 months, Fed pivot? on: August 05, 2025, 05:14:46 AM
I believe that with the latest revisions made with the latest employment data in non-farming payrolls, we probably wouldn't need the sort of "mega-layoffs" that was indicated in OP to make the Federal Reserve pivot to Q.E.

There could be underlying issues and weaknesses in the U.S. Economy that will show its face in Q4. 👀

We'll probably have another Golden Opportunity for buying the DIP!
8  Economy / Economics / Re: Topic For FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Meetings on: August 04, 2025, 03:56:22 PM
Jerome Powell will be speaking again in the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 23, 2025. The topic will be about, "Labor Markets In Transition". 👀

Does the "Transition" mean the integration of A.I in the labor market? And will that have any indirect connection to the "mega-layoffs" discussed in this topic?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5545484.0

Or am I connecting the dots that shouldn't be connected?

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
9  Economy / Economics / Re: Does US Economy Remained the Lead on: August 04, 2025, 09:29:21 AM
India is definitely a fast-growing economy, and also the biggest challenger against Chinese dominance as a world exporting nation. But Russia? We can't be sure about that because their campaign against Ukraine might be a massive cost in their economy's long term trajectory. It might be OK today, but the effects might be felt years later, especially if they haven't actually taken over Ukrainian territory.

That's true, the effect of the ongoing war with Ukraine is really a big blow on Russian and that alone is affecting its economy growth and development, such could also be as part of the reason they couldn't intervene on Iran-Israel war and US did so, Russian made lot of importations these time around than their exports in terms of the economy GDP, i think they have experienced a decline a little bit.


I'm not entirely sure about the current state of the Russian economy, but there's probably higher inflation, a slow-down in some sectors in their economy, and erosion of salaries/wages. That will definitely also slow down consumer demand and cause a recession.

The Bank Of Russia will probably print money to stimulate their economy, but that would also cause Hyperinflation.

Can anyone from Russia post their insights on the matter?
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: August 04, 2025, 09:15:33 AM
In my last post in the topic, I said that plebs who don't own any Bitcoin will have less opportunities than those plebs that own Bitcoin. There might those who are asking themselves, "What opportunties? Bitcoiners merely HODL". I believe that Bitcoin, soon, will be a collateral asset like Gold, Real Estate, and other valuable commodities that can be used to borrow some liquidity which can be used, for instance, to start a business or for some other money-making project.

There will people who will probably say it's "risky". You're right, BUT the point is you don't need to sell your Bitcoin IF you are short in liquidity. Bitcoin has become so valuable, and so accepted that entities are willing to accept it as collateral.
11  Economy / Gambling / Re: Betpanda.io | Anonymous Crypto Casino | Welcome Bonus Up to 1BTC on: August 04, 2025, 05:15:38 AM

Because in the end the bonus must still be enjoyed regardless of how the process is as long as we can still get and feel it then I think it's still very good to keep doing it. I also don't really chase bonuses it's just that if in the end I have the opportunity for it then it would be a little unfortunate if it was just let go.


The end point of bonuses are that you spend to to enjoy free games, and if you want to enjoy it more, you should nkt expect to make winnings from those bonuses like expecting to hit a jackpot from them, because having such thoughts towards those bonuses will build frustration when their did not come.

But if you have already made up your mind to waste those bonus amd enjoy the and have fun, xou be at peace regardless of which direction the game ends.


Although you're right that there should absolutely be low expectations of winning a jackpot or something from such bonuses/free games, I personally believe that because of the low expectations, the right way to use those bonuses is to go for low probability results, but with very high rewards, no? - Like a lottery or a slot-machine with a jackpot.

But if a person wants to make some profit from his/her bonus, probably to help cover for his/her gambling losses, then save those bonuses and use them if the user already has a large amount.
12  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Should HW require user to confirm SEED awareness before firmware updates? on: August 03, 2025, 03:15:46 PM
I will describe a case where mandatory SEED phrase checking before updating would be harmful and result in loss of funds. There is a case when you really lost access to SEED but you have a working wallet and a known pin code. You want to withdraw a coin from the wallet, but a warning pops up that there are changes in the protocol of this coin and you need to update it (this is often the case in Ledger wallets with different altcoins). In this case you have nothing to do but to agree with the update and in case of its success to withdraw coins to a new temporary address. If checking SEED before the update was mandatory, you would simply lose access to your coins.

Personally, I had a similar situation with the Tezor T wallet, the ZEC coin did not want to be withdrawn from it until I updated my wallet to the latest version.

A similar case occurred with the user Krypt which is described in the Russian branch of the forum.


It's definitely why people who can't be responsible enough to back up their seed phrases properly should probably NOT self-custody a large amount of Bitcoin or any crypto/digital asset.

It's better for those individuals to trust the legal system and buy an ETF, because if something goes wrong, they can call a lawyer to "fix" the problem.

 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
13  Economy / Gambling / Re: YEET.com | 🔥$5k BTCTalk Leaderboard🔥 | Casino & Sportsbook | Airdrop on: August 03, 2025, 03:05:37 PM
But "Internet Poker" as an industry, its growth has not been very good currently. Perhaps crypto could help bring it back to positive growth?

True, BOTs, RTA (Real Time Assistance), and collusion have ruined the online poker industry for an average Joe. Whatever good was left is destroyed by the excessive rake charged by poker platforms.   

Generally people who use crypto want to stay anonymous, therefore, it is much difficult to prevent collusion and other stuff. You have to have mandatory KYC, there is no other option.

Besides that competition is becoming difficult day by day as everyone is playing GTO ranges, more or less.


I don't know what actually happened to those internet poker services, but I believe it probably lost the interest of plebs like us. Because plebs gamble in exchanges too, and they also lose money like the lose in poker, but there's something in "trading" shitcoins that makes them come back.

 

Is "trading" simply a more "powerful" source of dopamine? 👀
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: August 03, 2025, 02:04:00 PM
This May Be the Final Year to DCA Your Way to One Bitcoin in a Decade
If you want to own a full bitcoin through dollar-cost averaging (DCA), 2025 may be your last realistic chance.

DCA Strategy Faces Diminishing Returns, But Bear Markets Could Be a Blessing for Late Bitcoin Stackers

Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/analyst-this-may-be-the-final-year-to-dca-your-way-to-one-bitcoin-in-a-decade/

Holding Bitcoin according to the DCA method is very enjoyable, you can definitely see it if you enter this link. Because it is easy to earn one Bitcoin in a decade and the DCA method plays the most important role in making yourself financially independent.
 
The more you hold Bitcoin according to the DCA method, the longer your investment will be in the long term. Keeping Bitcoin aside for a decade and continuing to hold it is the most modern and plays a sure role in becoming financially independent.


I wasn't sure how to react to  this until I read the article myself, and after reading it I noticed that it actually made a lot of sense for people who want to a full bitcoin and not fractions of it taking into consideration tha fact that the price of bitcoin will keep appreciating with the coming years, so while DCA will still work to accumulate bitcoin, it will become difficult to own 1 bitcoin unless the amount of money invested weekly is increased to match the growth of bitcoin's price, for me this is good news, articles like this only shows how much more growth bitcoin is expected to make and that investors should keep investing if they want to be a part of bitcoin's future


It is true that Bitcoin will keep on growing as years goes by but that doesn't mean that  using a certain amount to be accumulating Bitcoin without increasing the amount will make an investor not to be able to get 1 Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a volatile asset and so the chance or tendency that the price will keep going up without a dipping and stayed in that position is not known or certain. Regardless of the amount someone is using to accumulate Bitcoin, with consistency they will surely acquire 1 or more Bitcoin in years time and it is not possible for an investor to stay through his years or time of accumulating Bitcoin without doubling or Invest aggressively when there will be a dip.


I did not say it was going to become impossible to buy 1 bitcoin, but with the coming years and judging with the track record bitcoin had set it will be much harder to buy one bitcoin in the future with the same amount used in DCA now, if it took 10 years to buy now it might take 15 years in the future so the only to keep at at 10 years would be to increase your weekly investment as was stated in the article.



That's ABSOLUTELY WHY if you already have purchased some Bitcoin, whether it was through Buy the DIP or DCA, the more important move after is to HODL. You're already front-running the billionaires, why give them the opportunity to front-run you by selling? A non-Bitcoin HODLer has a higher probability to stay a pleb than a Bitcoin HODLer. There will be less opportunities coming for those people.
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: August 02, 2025, 02:17:35 PM
This May Be the Final Year to DCA Your Way to One Bitcoin in a Decade
If you want to own a full bitcoin through dollar-cost averaging (DCA), 2025 may be your last realistic chance.

DCA Strategy Faces Diminishing Returns, But Bear Markets Could Be a Blessing for Late Bitcoin Stackers

Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/analyst-this-may-be-the-final-year-to-dca-your-way-to-one-bitcoin-in-a-decade/

Holding Bitcoin according to the DCA method is very enjoyable, you can definitely see it if you enter this link. Because it is easy to earn one Bitcoin in a decade and the DCA method plays the most important role in making yourself financially independent.
The more you hold Bitcoin according to the DCA method, the longer your investment will be in the long term. Keeping Bitcoin aside for a decade and continuing to hold it is the most modern and plays a sure role in becoming financially independent.


I believe that after Strategy's latest earnings call, the majority of plebs, if not all of those who are still accumulating to get at least ONE Bitcoin might have a harder time to do it.

Strategy had massive earnings with about $10 Billion profit and $14 Billion Operating Income. 👀

There will be more companies and nation-states coming to buy your Bitcoin away from you. Don't make it cheap for them.
16  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Should HW require user to confirm SEED awareness before firmware updates? on: August 02, 2025, 11:22:25 AM

Yes, it's a good way to recall the user if they still have the correct copy of the master seed before updating the firmware.

It should be done on the device itself not on the connected wallet (ledger live, trezor suite, etc) and not with a device that is connected on the internet.


Although, if you're a user who truly believes in self-custody, then YOU should already have multiple analog back ups of your seed hidden in different locations.

I'll vote for YES, but the user should always confirm that he has a back up, if IT IS the back right back up, and have the back up ready before firmware updates. - A user that can't have responsibility to take these actions SHOULD NOT self-custody a LARGE amount of Bitcoin.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Halving Cycle Theory (e.g. Stock-to-flow): How to explain the deep bear markets? on: August 02, 2025, 08:17:41 AM
But what you're describing is NOT actually REAL demand, no? It's merely irrational behavior from market participants, in that, they become euphoric, then fearful, which makes the price surge then crash. But it always goes back to mean reversion. The market is "always" efficient, with some inefficiencies in between.


The problem is where to draw the limit between "real" demand and demand driven by "irrational behavior"?


I believe that emphasizes the importance of mean reversion. Personally, I like using the 200-Week Simple Moving Average as my guide.

Quote


There are also lots of speculative users who try to ride bullish and bearish waves, either being long or short, but with a plan. There are even those who try to capitalize from the FOMO and fear of others, showing similar buying/selling behavior at a first glance. Are they regular users of an "efficient market" or not?


NO, obviously. They're gambing.
 
 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Quote

Anyway the point of this thread is not to question that there is a long time trend driven by scarcity. If Bitcoin is perceived as a "scarce" asset, and demand is rising faster than the supply increases, then a long term price growth is a logical consequence.

The question here is about the timing the "Halving Cycle theory" supporters alude to. That the "cycle" in the popular opinion always lasts 4 years (even if we had only two complete 4-year cycles, the previous one was shorter), just like the distance between halvings. That the peak bull market euphoria with new ATHs starts several months after the halving (which, to note, seemingly wasn't the case in the 2024/25 cycle, as we had an ATH previous to the halving in April).


That's the problem with "the theory" that merely considers supply. Because there's an emission reduction every four years doesn't actually mean that the value of Bitcoin will always go up - DEMAND matters. But where to base that demand? I believe it could based from M2 Money Supply. If it goes up, risk assets such as Bitcoin also go up weeks/months later. The same when it's going down.

Quote

And these theories, imo, are really bad at explaining the crashes after the demand.

In other words, what I question is:

- that the post-halving FOMO is a "natural consequence" of the halving cycle,


If we remove the gamblers/traders out of the market, and if M2 Money Supply is going up post-halving surge would be a natural consequence.

Quote

- but the crash after the maximum FOMO is "irrational behaviour".

IMO both FOMO and crashes are either irrational or have to be explained by the halving cycle theory Smiley


The same viewpoint if we remove the gamblers/traders out, post-halving corrections are also natural.

It will simply be a market with less volatility.
18  Economy / Gambling / Re: YEET.com | 🔥$5k BTCTalk Leaderboard🔥 | Casino & Sportsbook | Airdrop on: August 02, 2025, 08:02:35 AM
Thank @little_mouse for inviting me to join this contest.

Side note: level up rewards for having 50K wager is 100$ which is good to have extra balance on this tournament when I needed the most. ggwp everyone.
If you are a poker lover, yeet will have 2 poker tournament this month. Everyone wagered $10k+ are eligible to participate. Keep an eye here or our telegram group (Bitcointalk Contest) or Yeet's discord group.


I'm not actually a "poker lover" but I do play it sometimes. Does Yeet have their own poker-room, or will it in the future? I believe that currently Stake is the only crypto casino that has all three? - Casino games, sports-betting, and a poker-room. 👀

Yeet will probably have the advantage/edge to run a poker-room because the founder has massive experience in everything about poker.


From what I can see here, Boss Little Mouse said that there would be 2 Poker tournaments this month, which invariably means that there is the possibility of Yeet Casino having a poker room, and of lately, poker games are now making rounds in the online gambling industry, which is a good one and it doesn't require players meeting together sitted but from their comfort zone from any part of the world they could just logging and join the poker session to play their poker game.


I believe that for a majority of individuals who have some investments in Bitcoin and other coins/shitcoins, Poker is something new to them and it might also be something that's like "Trading". A "skill" that they would like to learn and "master".

But "Internet Poker" as an industry, its growth has not been very good currently. Perhaps crypto could help bring it back to positive growth?
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Sentiment Poll for August on: August 01, 2025, 02:42:05 PM
It's perhaps better to start the month weak, then end it with a strong surge, than a strong surge during the start of the month, and a mini-crash during the end.

  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Plus this is a good month for those who are still accumulating Bitcoin. The sellers are giving buyers an opportunity to buy with a small discount. That's more units of Bitcoin for the same amount of fiat. Cool
20  Economy / Gambling / Re: YEET.com | 🔥$5k BTCTalk Leaderboard🔥 | Casino & Sportsbook | Airdrop on: August 01, 2025, 02:29:24 PM
Thank @little_mouse for inviting me to join this contest.

Side note: level up rewards for having 50K wager is 100$ which is good to have extra balance on this tournament when I needed the most. ggwp everyone.
If you are a poker lover, yeet will have 2 poker tournament this month. Everyone wagered $10k+ are eligible to participate. Keep an eye here or our telegram group (Bitcointalk Contest) or Yeet's discord group.


I'm not actually a "poker lover" but I do play it sometimes. Does Yeet have their own poker-room, or will it in the future? I believe that currently Stake is the only crypto casino that has all three? - Casino games, sports-betting, and a poker-room. 👀

Yeet will probably have the advantage/edge to run a poker-room because the founder has massive experience in everything about poker.
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