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981  Economy / Speculation / Re: Adam Back's Bullish Bet on: August 09, 2023, 03:41:25 PM
Do you think Adam Back's prediction is realistic? Are you as bullish as him?

Not very realistic. It's not impossible for that to happen, but if the pattern of this cycle resembles previous ones in Bitcoin's short history, there is no way the price will surpass the $69K ATH in what's left until halving. Patterns need not repeat themselves indefinitely, however, and this cycle is an example of that, but on a downward trend.

But as mentioned, him betting only $300 is not very bullish.



Perhaps he forgot to add two more zeros in his offer. Haha. Although, he might be right. Because what if the Federal Reserve made the pivot from QT to QE?

There are projections from the more bearish economists illustrating that a recession is inevitable, and the timeline could be late 2023 or early 2024. And because the Federal Reserve has the susceptibility to over-adjust, the first small signs of a recession would probably make the printer go "BRRRR". IF "BRRRR" does indeed happen during March next year, then we have already seen its effects on Bitcoin and other markets during March, 2020. They will SURGE.
982  Economy / Economics / Re: Can CBDC users lose control of their money? on: August 09, 2023, 03:01:20 PM
It's just a name/label. Roll Eyes

But what do you propose, frankandbeans? That development should have no order, no organization? Are you proposing those developers from Bitcoin Unlimited, Bitcoin ABC, and BCash should be given authority to commit code to the main repository? To the same people who tried to co-opt Bitcoin and fork it away from the Core Developers? That's a very funny joke, ser.

windfury.. you have never said anything at all in this entire forum that was not first instructed to be said by your mentor or his forum wife.. so please try to for once get a mind of your own so you could possibly come up with idea's, and also where you can learn from the community instead of your forum daddy and mom admirers


 Roll Eyes

And you have never made one honest post in the forum. It was my mistake to say that you're one of the people to learn from. Maybe one to learn from THE HARD WAY because everything you teach is WRONG.

Everyone should go to your trust page and read what gmaxwell and achow101 wrote, and ask themselves why they wrote them and who to trust.


but the government still has the right to access and manage the currency, regardless of whether it is fiat or CBDC. They are responsible for managing and disposing of the property of the people in certain cases. So the possibility that the government controls people's money could be to pool it in the national treasury and use it for projects that improve people's lives. As for how they will be used, it is impossible to know, that is managed by the government to use it for their specific purposes.


Do they? Really? I believe not, or should not. The government doesn't have 24/7 access to your cash, they can't monitor all your transactions with it, and it's fungible and private. A CBDC removes all that.
983  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin decentralization debate on: August 09, 2023, 02:53:52 PM
Hello bitcoin community

I am a fan of Bitcoin, so I have a friend who introduced him to Bitcoin and explained to him the great advantages that Bitcoin has, especially decentralization and privacy.

My friend is one of the people who believe in conspiracy theory, so he doubts that Bitcoin is decentralized and believes that there is a party or country behind it.


That "party" WAS Satoshi. He has left since Gavin Andresen announced that he was going to the C.I.A. headquarters in Langley.

Plus the network was always decentralized after that time when more and more full nodes started joining the network. Tell you friend to read this blog, https://medium.com/hackernoon/bitcoin-miners-beware-invalid-blocks-need-not-apply-51c293ee278b

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I tried to explain to him repeatedly that this is impossible and that Bitcoin is completely decentralized, that no one owns Bitcoin and no one controls it, and that any change that occurs on the network must To gain the consensus of the community, but he nevertheless insisted that he does not believe that Bitcoin is decentralized, only because he does not believe that there is decentralization in anything.

How can I convince my friend that Bitcoin is indeed decentralized?


Paraphrase Satoshi - "If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry". Cool

It's his problem.
984  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: August 09, 2023, 01:41:01 PM

Ordinals is a good example. I may not like dick pics and fart sounds in the blockchain, but it's impressive, for Bitcoin as a protocol, that Casey Rodarmor built his project on top of the network without asking permission. This is the ethos Bitcoin lives by, and saying that it's merely for "spending" cheapens the protocol.

I'm just referencing Satoshi's original intentions. He didn't create bitcoin to be an investment, even though somewhat ironically that's possibly one of the reasons why its had such success as one.


But we're here in the current situation.

The easy way out of the debate is "because Satoshi", or "because the white paper".

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Ordinals is indeed a novel use case that doesn't have to do with spending, so is the stuff I've been doing on Counterparty since 2014. I think what "cheapens the protocol" to a larger degree is insisting bitcoin shouldn't be spent.


I truly respect your opinion, but not finding out the actual reason why saving Bitcoin makes more sense than spending it like it was a network merely for coffee transactions, makes me believe that we might have only started to scratch the surface.

I'm also still in my Bitcoin journey, and I'm not saying that I'm 100% on the right path. Perhaps I will get a new understanding and agree with you one day.
985  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you think it's a good idea if BTC has smart contract capability? on: August 08, 2023, 02:35:19 PM
Your question has been answered by this user.

What specific kind of smart contracts do you have in mind because ever since the first transaction in Genesis block back in 2009 we have been creating smart contracts in each and every bitcoin transaction.


Although what pooya87 posted is technically true, I believe OP was talking more about Turing-complete programming and smart contracts that Ethereum has.


I have this discussion with few friends two days ago and I want to share it today on this forum, my friends believe that if Bitcoin has the same potential as Ethereum every crypto projects in this space won't matter and Bitcoin would probably be more pricey in value than what it is today,


Probably true.

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they also claimed that there won't be a lot of scam projects like today.


Definitely not true. Haha.

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I answered them with the following, though they don't really accept, so what do you guys think?

1. If Bitcoin is smart contract active it won't be able to keep it's decentralized part alive because smart contract ability will give access to centralized projects building and running on Bitcoin.


On a technical level the bandwidth and processing requirements for each node will increase, forcing the network to centralize towards the entities who have the resources and/or the willingness to spend more to run a full node.

Being a centralized project built on top of Bitcoin won't matter, what matters is the network.

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2. Many new projects will tarnish the respect and image that Bitcoin has right now, because meme coins and stupid shit coins will run on Bitcoin and this will make people to lose money, once that happens Bitcoin as scam is just going to get worse.


No, they'll be just narratives.

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3. There will be bridges chaos and more money will be lost, the problem will be much more than what it is right now because I believe it's easier to lose money through smart contracts e.g hacks that happens through bridges and other.


Probably true.

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4. Bitcoin is perfect as it is right now,


We shouldn't say "it's perfect" but it's good enough for what the world needs, and in my opinion, the world needs at least one censorship-resistant cryptocurrency network as a back up in case the financial system crashes.

There are some parts in Bitcoin that have ossified and will never change, but some parts probably need more development.

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adding smart contract or trying to perfected Bitcoin, into all in one would have make it a less noticeable in crypto space, because it will be contending with Ethereum and others, it's best because it's not like other projects.


It will widen the protocol's attack vector.
986  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: August 08, 2023, 02:03:48 PM
But they should to educate the newbies and make them think hard before spending their precious Bitcoins. A Bitcoin now is better HODLed than spent.


While I'm not exactly sure when you think its good to spend bitcoin, I disagree with this. Bitcoins were made to be spent, not held.


Sorry, the point I was making was made through an incomplete post. I was talking more about from an investment perspective and how Bitcoin isn't designed to use for mere "coffee transactions".

Bitcoin's purchasing power grows after the end of a 4-year cycle, so unless you have no choice and truly need to spend your Bitcoin, it's better to use fiat to purchase your personal needs.

Plus "money", could be spent AND held.

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The ability to spend them is what gives them their value. When you spend your bitcoin, you are fulfilling its purpose, its destiny. If everybody held their BTC, well first of all there'd be no market, and second of all it would be no different than a Ponzi scheme centered around an illiquid asset.


That's partly true. In my opinion, Bitcoin's main value proposition derives from the fact that it's censorship-resistant. The way it's spent and the way the network is utilized also matters. If people truly believe that Bitcoin was built to be a network for personal/consumer finance, then they're only scratching the surface.

Ordinals is a good example. I may not like dick pics and fart sounds in the blockchain, but it's impressive, for Bitcoin as a protocol, that Casey Rodarmor built his project on top of the network without asking permission. This is the ethos Bitcoin lives by, and saying that it's merely for "spending" cheapens the protocol.
987  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: August 08, 2023, 07:25:12 AM
Maybe it's just me, but I don't see bitcoin being destined for coffees and pizzas. Transactions like that are, in a manner, as plain as a pikestaff. You don't care about censorship-resistance when buying a pizza. You don't care if third parties know which toppings in that pizza you prefer. You're never going to buy a pizza overseas.  You just want the transaction to complete the soonest, and pay the least in commissions.


It's not just you. In fact, I believe there are many people here in BitcoinTalk who also has the same opinion, although they don't express it as much they should. But they should to educate the newbies and make them think hard before spending their precious Bitcoins. A Bitcoin now is better HODLed than spent.

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Bitcoin is the good money from Gresham's law. As long as there's "bad money", it will not circulate much in the economy. Unless fiat currencies collapse completely, and both EU and US become poor, merchants will pretty much go in the fiat-way when stuff like censorship-resistance, privacy and being permissionless are not prioritized. And even in that chaotic scenario, there will be banks afterwards, in just another form. People without technical expertise will be required to forfeit their custody, unless some second layer can reach them with near zero disadvantages (I highly doubt about that).


But have a shower thought about a simple concept - Unlimited fiat, only 21,000,000 Bitcoin in existence and demand for sats is increasing.
988  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: risk of centralization of bitcoin. on: August 08, 2023, 05:22:26 AM
Until now, there hasn't been any recorded instance of a 51% attack on the Bitcoin network, as far as I'm aware. It's mostly a theoretical fear rather than a reality. Any mining pool attempting such an attack would require substantial energy and mining equipment. However, other miners would likely prevent such an attack from happening, which is one of the reasons why Bitcoin remains decentralized. Nowadays, carrying out such an attack is not an easy task, reaffirming Bitcoin's decentralization.

The amount of computing power and resources required to carry out 51% attack will surpass the resulting monetary advantage. Moreover there are thousands of nodes globally distributed that are maintaining the Bitcoin network. So its very difficult rather impossible to centralised the Bitcoin. We haven't seen any instance where some centralised entity has taken control of Bitcoin network and that makes the network more robust.


Plus while the "attacking-entity" is secretly investing a lot of money accumulating ASICs and booting them up to start mining Bitcoin, in theory, the entitly might have found out that it's actually better to be honest and be rewarded in Bitcoin. Haha. Cool

What we plebs might have misunderstood about Game Theory is, it's about finding an equilibrium to do what's good for the individual, and the group. If the Game Theory behind Bitcoin is flawed then the network would probably have already died.
989  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: For newbies and plebs who want to self-study to become "traders" on: August 08, 2023, 05:06:31 AM
My advice - BE CAREFUL

Investment and trading books, articles and videos are made by people who might not actually be winning traders. They make their money by writing "investment materials" and sell it to us, the plebs.

Plus "as traders", most of you will lose money and leave. Some of you might return and lose more money. Some might have learned their lesson the hard way and just HODL Bitcoin. The few who actually put in the most time, effort and who are well-capitalized might make it.
thanks to you for this topic, newbie traders have big expectations for trading, they come to make a lot of money but the majority of them just lose money and then leave, while those who persist definitely have a chance to become an experienced and even professional trader.

like a battlefield, trading activity is that, every trader must have good skills -> understand analysis techniques, fundamentals, economics, understand how to use trading tools, control emotions, not be lazy to keep learning is the basic foundation that must be owned by every both beginners and experienced traders (this is an important thing that many professional traders have explained)
It is definitely a battlefield, there will be buyers and sellers and they will fight each other to be the right one. Sellers will sell because they think it will go down, and if they sell and the price goes down afterwards that means they won that battle, the buyers are buying because they think they are going to make a profit and if they are right and the price goes up then they made that profit.

So long story short we are talking about a situation where it will be quite possible for people to make a profit like that. I understand it is going to take a while but it will be quite possible for us to just make it work. I believe it is not going to be that much of a problem if you lose a battle, because it is important to win the war instead.

Tug of war on which it would really be survival of the fittest and if you cant find yourself that really that good or not able to make out some good decisions towards your trades then you would really be might be having that lots of losses and this is indeed the reality if you do find yourself get engaging with this market on which it is really that indeed composed of buyers and sellers on which it would really be just that normal that you would really be needing to be wise on every buy or sell decisions you would be making.

As a noob, then starting up with the basics of course on which it would really be just that right that you should really know on how to identify between those errors and effective ways on making yourself that sustainable on this very unpredictable field.

Never ever make yourself in a hurry on learning up things and just like on what others been mentioning out that if you rush up then you are prone to errors because you would really be that desperate on making up some steps because you are in a hurry on trying to see those profits which its never been right on having that kind of approach. Study and learn up along the way even if you are using real balance or money and this is why its not ideal if you do make use of huge amounts specially when you are just still starting.


OR, why not carry out the most effective strategy for newbies and just Buy the DIP and HODL? Why play the game of "survival of the fittest" when the game could also be played by simply doing a time-based strategy? We should refuse to become the product, the very people being forced to buy high/sell low, the people who are scammed for affiliate fees, ad revenue and TRADING BOOKS we don't actually need.
990  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: For newbies and plebs who want to self-study to become "traders" on: August 07, 2023, 01:51:29 PM

Investment and trading books, articles and videos are made by people who might not actually be winning traders. They make their money by writing "investment materials" and sell it to us, the plebs.


This is 100% true and for sure a lot of writers or people who are writing some content about trading are really losing money on trading and they are just making money on these books or some are making money on affiliates like inviting someone to signup under their links on some exchanges and they will earn money via commissions.


There's truly nothing wrong with writing a book, a guide, or any investment material as long as the writer is honest with his/her audience. There's also nothing wrong with shilling referral links as long as the person doesn't "market" himself like he did in this screenshot. Haha.



Twitter is starting to include "for context" information in tweets.
991  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Bluewallet fastest fee on: August 06, 2023, 03:31:23 PM
This is my second time encountered this issue on Bluewallet app on my iPhone. I use the fastest fee but my transaction is still stuck for about 3hrs now. Again my wallet doesn’t support bumping fee due to the private key that I use.

I believe this is a mempool issue and not Bluewallet since the fee is correct to the suggested fee on mempool. What's happening on the blockchain?


Sometimes the wallet, and probably most wallets, will have the wrong fee estimates especially during those times of high network congestion.

Before making a transaction, next time check how much transactions are in queue. You should always visit https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,24h,weight
992  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Sentiment Poll for August on: August 06, 2023, 01:58:01 PM
Today the price is red again and the hope that this week can reach $ 30k doesn't seem to happen, of course this makes us have to be patient waiting and hoping that the bear market will end soon, I'm still optimistic that in August the price can reach at least $ 33k.


People should patient and opportunistic during a bear market. Cool

There's always a Silver Lining somewhere. Instead of being stressed that there's some probability for Bitcoin to crash below $28,000, try to find good price points and plan your next bids if you have some disposable income. If you don't, try finding a job/a second job to earn extra income and keep them as savings in Bitcoin.
993  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: risk of centralization of bitcoin. on: August 06, 2023, 01:49:20 PM
No, for nascent shitcoins there's no debate. Because the incentives to attack those chains would potentially be MORE compared to the cost of attacking it.


Every cryptocurrency is potentially profitable to attack, because there might be people benefiting from reversing transactions, or destroying the network altogether. There may be in bitcoin. Sure, there are legitimate users, and sure there's an order of magnitude greater incentive to protect the network, but there might be an equivalently potential incentive to attack it.


That's the point of the Game Theory behind Bitcoin, there may or may not be. How much should an entity spend to start a 51% attack on Bitcoin? If the entity is willing to spend millions to profit in millions more, then OK. But in Bitcoin that probability is much MUCH lower than what you're trying to suggest because it makes more sense to be honest and be incentivized in Bitcoin.
994  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: August 05, 2023, 02:29:27 PM
It is really a journey... more like a marathon with the ultimate prize being owning Bitcoin.  At the current price,  I don't think much strategies are required to buy. Other things bring equal, we are going to see higher prices 2024/2025. Expectations are really high.
Buying only requires money and it should always be adjusted according to one's abilities from now on, because for people who already believe there will be a big increase in 2024 and 2025 for Bitcoin, many people probably won't make excessive analysis anymore on Bitcoin because they only try to buy and hope that improvements can occur in that year. This is not only a journey, but also included in a good wait for many people who have bought Bitcoin this year forgetting other things that are not important for now.


Either you get lucky and buy when Bitcoin is at a very big discount, OR, based on Bitcoin's four year cycle, you wait for the bull market when a lot of new investors are in FOMO. If truly limited in capital, wait for either of these events and use as much of your savings as possible to buy Bitcoin.
995  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: August 05, 2023, 02:16:35 PM

But the point is if an ETF is approved, Bitcoin will surge then expand the value of MicroStrategy's balance sheet, therefore making the actual value of MSTR go up. But if MSTR is sold because "reasons" and its price crashes down, THEN the stock is undervalued because of MicroStrategy's surging Bitcoin in the company's vaults. It will be a golden investment

I didn't suggest shorting MSTR outright, I said shorting vs Buying GBTC.


OK.

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In case of a Bitcoin really post ETF approval, you want to be long GBTC, not Microstrategy. The latter will always have a (negative) overhead over bitcoin valuation. So there will no point holding it once an ETF is approved.


If you mean GBTC's current discount to Net Asset Value, then it will be a gamble. I heard Silbert has been having bankruptcy issues involving one of his companies?

MSTR is up 200% since January, Bitcoin is up probably just 90%. Once ETF approvals are taking place = Bitcoin will surge, and I'm very confident that MSTR will again surge more. But, saying it like a broken record, I'm the stupid pleb.
996  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: risk of centralization of bitcoin. on: August 05, 2023, 11:53:45 AM
What where those "other cryptocurrencies"?


Ethereum classic, Bitcoin Gold, Verge, Feathercoin, Litecoin Cash, probably more.


I believe 51% attacks towards those networks would require the attacker considerably less resources than they would if they attacked a POW giant such as Bitcoin.


Obviously, but it's a matter of numbers from that point on. You could argue that no sane person would attack the other cryptocurrencies either, but they were attacked. This is evidence that the game theory is only partially correct. It's correct as long as the incentives to protect are greater than to attack; you can't be 100% certain that will last forever.


No, for nascent shitcoins there's no debate. Because the incentives to attack those chains would potentially be MORE compared to the cost of attacking it. Why be honest if attacking it gives more incentives? In Bitcoin, if it pays more to be honest, then there's no point in attacking it.

The game theory fully works.
997  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: August 05, 2023, 11:37:01 AM
In the below recent recording Saylor explains a question likely many investors have: what separates MSTR from other options owning
<…>


This is bullshit.
There is no reason to hold MSTR after an ETF is approved. This is an inferior vehicle to get exposure ti bitcoin price, no matter how much Micheal Saylor try to persuade us.
 
As I said, if you want to bet on an ETF approval you might want to short MSTR and long Grayscale.


Ser, are you sure? What an irresponsible advice to suggest. Because even if there's an ETF approval for many asset managers, it doesn't change the fact that MicroStrategy still HODLs 152,800 Bitcoin in their balance sheet. If that surges in value, then their balance sheet will have a BIG PLUS sign in it, which will definitely be very good for MSTR's market value.

But I'm the stupid pleb, I could be wrong.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

A lot of people hold Microstrategy because there is no better way to gain exposure to bitcoin price for an US professional investor than Microstrategy.

When an ETF is approved, then there will be a selling pressure on Microstrategy (stock) to buy the ETF.
The ETF has many advantages tracking bitcoin price over MSTR.


But the point is if an ETF is approved, Bitcoin will surge then expand the value of MicroStrategy's balance sheet, therefore making the actual value of MSTR go up. But if MSTR is sold because "reasons" and its price crashes down, THEN the stock is undervalued because of MicroStrategy's surging Bitcoin in the company's vaults. It will be a golden investment opportunity.

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It is true that they hold BTC on their balance sheet, buttthey also have other industrial activities that can impact shareholders value. In addition to that, Micheal Salylor could decide to dump all the BTC and nobody could argue with it.


That's a strawman and outside the context of the debate. Because those other industrial activites could add value to the company too, and Chad Saylor could also decide to buy more Bitcoin from company profits.
998  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: risk of centralization of bitcoin. on: August 04, 2023, 02:28:48 PM
but it was way back when the hash rates were low compared to now.
Yes, but even now, there are like two pools which produce most of the work; Foundry USA and Antpool; 52.04% of the total hashrate there. That isn't progress.

But the fact is the there is no incentive to the miners if they become malicious


How can you be so certain? The numerous 51% attacks in other such cryptocurrencies should have already convinced you that the game theory is only partly correct.


What where those "other cryptocurrencies"? Nascent POW shitcoins? I believe 51% attacks towards those networks would require the attacker considerably less resources than they would if they attacked a POW giant such as Bitcoin. Would Foundry USA and Antpool really risk everything just to attempt a double spend?
999  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: August 04, 2023, 02:13:43 PM
In the below recent recording Saylor explains a question likely many investors have: what separates MSTR from other options owning
<…>


This is bullshit.
There is no reason to hold MSTR after an ETF is approved. This is an inferior vehicle to get exposure ti bitcoin price, no matter how much Micheal Saylor try to persuade us.
 
As I said, if you want to bet on an ETF approval you might want to short MSTR and long Grayscale.


Ser, are you sure? What an irresponsible advice to suggest. Because even if there's an ETF approval for many asset managers, it doesn't change the fact that MicroStrategy still HODLs 152,800 Bitcoin in their balance sheet. If that surges in value, then their balance sheet will have a BIG PLUS sign in it, which will definitely be very good for MSTR's market value.

But I'm the stupid pleb, I could be wrong.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
1000  Economy / Economics / Re: Can CBDC users lose control of their money? on: August 04, 2023, 10:38:03 AM
Everyone just needs to look and read the comments in your trust rating to know what you actually are. You're a fiend who never actually cared for Bitcoin, what the community decided during the scaling debate, nor for the design decisions made by the Core Developers to maintain decentralization.

"core devs maintaining" is not decentralisation.. even their brand name debunks your theory
CORE=CENTER


It's just a name/label. Roll Eyes

But what do you propose, frankandbeans? That development should have no order, no organization? Are you proposing those developers from Bitcoin Unlimited, Bitcoin ABC, and BCash should be given authority to commit code to the main repository? To the same people who tried to co-opt Bitcoin and fork it away from the Core Developers? That's a very funny joke, ser.
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