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661  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Sentiment Poll for November on: November 06, 2023, 01:20:13 PM
Pardon me sers if I vote that there's high probability that it's a bull trap. I'm long term bullish, but short term, "beware". Let me explain.

In the U.S., which is the largest consuming countries innthe world, their M2 Money Supply is contracting to its deepest levels EVER. A recession will absolutely follow, and it's not might not only be in the U.S., it might start a contagion of economic failures across the world in my opinion.



Does anyone truly believe that Bitcoin will continue to surge if most of the world is in a recession? Zoomed out to the maximum, YES it goes up, but for 2023 and firsr half of 2024? - Save some dry powder for buying the DIP.
662  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Michael Saylor talks about Bitcoin, and you WILL be disappointed on: November 06, 2023, 08:49:40 AM
If Bitcoin is equal to anarchy, then it may not be good. Anarchy means chaos and disorder. But Bitcoin isn't anarchy or a currency for the anarchists. Bitcoin is just a currency that embodies freedom. There's nothing wrong with it.


I'm not designating Bitcoin with a belief-system or a philosophy. I'm merely describing it as what and how it's actually designed technically. What do you think should self-sovereignty and censorship-resistance necessitate? For everyone to follow the government? Or real embodiment of freedom from the State?

Plus Anarchy doesn't necessarily mean "chaos and disorder", but that's a debate for another topic.

Quote

Saylor is only after Bitcoin as an asset, something which he can earn from. With his words, it's clear that Saylor is in favor of censorship. He seems to be against privacy also. But should we be surprised? Saylor belongs to the traditional elite.


Or to give him some benefit of the doubt, he probably is playing 4D Chess. Haha.
663  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Why is horse racing so unpopular here and a bit of extra feedback on: November 06, 2023, 08:25:06 AM
The leading countries with growing Horse Racing markets are Japan, the U.S.A., Hong Kong, Australia, and France. I believe in the forum, it's not that popular because no one actually has done the research on strategies and how to actually pick winners. Perhaps we should start?

 Cool
Even though horse racing has grown in several countries that you have mentioned above, horse racing is only popular in certain regions of the country, although the interest of horse racing spectators is expected to increase, but they are not interested in gambling on the game.


Although what you have posted is true, it doesn't make it true that Horse Racing has been going through a decline in popularity like what HelliumZ said.

Quote

However we do not yet know how many gamblers are involved in horse racing on this forum because this board does not have a specific thread discussing horse racing so we cannot research the level of interest of forum users towards horse racing betting, if horse racing matches become more interesting and they will try your luck in betting on these sports.


That's probably because no one knows where to watch it? Are the organizers of those races streaming them or broadcasting them in a sports channel somewhere? I believe if it's accessible like those other sports, it might become more popular in the forum. But I'm not much of a gambler. I like playing Craps sometimes when I have absolutely nothing to do.
664  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: November 06, 2023, 05:33:28 AM
It's not sustainable.  Although idiots are plentiful in this world, there's still not an unlimited supply of them.  You can only fool people so many times before it stops working.  Sooner or later they'll run out of suckers who will buy this crap and then they'll have wasted all their money uploading garbage.

Just have patience.  It'll die down again soon enough.


It's an inconvenience for users who want to send small amounts of Bitcoins, but I personally don't mind it anymore to be honest. They're merely using the network in a way that we don't approve of.

The protocol is working as designed and following the consensus rules, with the fee market, with the unstoppable/censorship-resistant transactions. Who are we to say that they can't use the network in the way they want?

Plus it's true, it's not sustainable AND Bitcoin has limited supply. They're wasting those precious coins.
665  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Why is horse racing so unpopular here and a bit of extra feedback on: November 05, 2023, 01:47:10 PM
Popularity of a sport depends on patronage and support. Cock fighting and bull fighting were very popular in the past but with the passage of time people have lost interest in these sports. Similarly, horse racing is currently practiced on a small scale in some areas, but its popularity has declined worldwide. Especially due to the lack of racers and the decrease in interest of racers, currently horse racing is not held in any international venue if it is held in some remote areas.


I don't know in what region of the world where you currently are, but you're wrong. The global Horse Racing market is actually still growing and expected to almost double in size in the U.S. market by 2030. DYOR, for more information.

The leading countries with growing Horse Racing markets are Japan, the U.S.A., Hong Kong, Australia, and France. I believe in the forum, it's not that popular because no one actually has done the research on strategies and how to actually pick winners. Perhaps we should start?

 Cool
666  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Michael Saylor talks about Bitcoin, and you WILL be disappointed on: November 05, 2023, 11:01:54 AM
Quote

Stop talking about regulatory arbitrage. Censorship-resistance, privacy, and tax evasion are bad ideas. We hate that.”

The conversation began with a huge letdown. I had asked Michael Saylor what could motivate greater institutional investment in Bitcoin—after all, if Bitcoin is going to the moon, we’re gonna need a lot of deep pockets to climb on board.

“People with billions of dollars don’t want to invest in crypto networks that support anarchists,” Saylor explained.

https://www.btctimes.com/insight/michael-saylor-on-bitcoins-next-billion-hodlers


Is this the same person who was telling everyone about appreciating the power of Bitcoin because he experienced having $1,000,000 of his own money locked in Argentina with no way to send it out of the country? Didn't he need censorship-resistance to send that money out?

Plus it's understandable that the largest Bitcoin HODLers should not say anything that might get them and their investment in some inconveniences, but actually saying the censorship-resistance is a "bad idea"?

Remove the "Chad", just "Saylor", he is not a friend to the Bitcoin community. He doesn't support its ethos.


If I called you naive and foolish and a true enemy of BTC would you be angry?


But what's the point/context? Are you saying that Michael Saylor is merely naive and foolish, and therefore he can't be blamed for making false claims? I believe he should be corrected, and educated about what Bitcoin truly is, and what its real value proposition is. OR he probably is acting that way because he knows that Bitcoin as a censorship-resistant cryptocurrency, and a breaker of political strongholds won't get the approval of the government.

But being a person who educates people about Bitcoin through his own site, he should truly know what Bitcoin is and must merely be pretending to be stupid and foolish, https://learn.saylor.org/mod/page/view.php?id=30734&forceview=1
667  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Winning Wisely: Strategies to Protect Your Bankroll on: November 05, 2023, 10:47:47 AM

        -  I agree with what you said; all winnings in gambling are really just luck. I always believe that. The only wise strategy I can say is that the gambler who wins 2 to 3 times stops and takes out the winnings.

That's definitely a wise gamble for me. Then the fact that you notice that you always lose and stop is a wise play for me because they were aware of that situation. Always losing means you are unlucky that day, so you should stop for a while.
Loses is one of the reasons why we need to know that winning is mostly based on luck. For us to make money from gambling there is need to spend time on how we bet and how to improve. There are days we tend to lose and that do not mean we should relax and chase the loses. It is always good for us to adjust and reduce how often we gamble anytime we make loses. For we to keep up to winnings, luck will attract and make us fortunate even when we think that we have taken a wrong step. Improvement as a gambler is what we should seek for because that is what will keep us going.

We can not say that person or Gambler is a master cause he/she is always the winner but as reality said he /she has his/her luck  cause gambling is not like sports that you can be a master. In gambling even though you are too long  to play or let say it's been a years that your playing  still you don't know the outcome of you every bet. So we must know that there's no good strategy in gambing. All the winners have thier own luck that's why they won.

Yes, we cannot predict the results of gambling, because we gamble only by hoping for luck there, even if we play with a good method or strategy, it is not certain that we will win and even though we are already involved in the world of gambling. for a long time, we weren't sure. will achieve continuous victory and change the fate of our lives for the better.

And I agree with you, that victory is based on one's luck, not good playing strategy.


There are some strategies that can be utilized in many forms of gambling that has the house edge over us, but those strategies will only be about how to lose less and how to preserve capital to play for the next time you go, or log-in to a casino. It's why if you have a good winning streak, make sure not to give all those chips back to the dealer or the croupier. Hahaha. Plus perhaps if you have capital large enough for casinos to notice, they'll give you VIP status and comp points, especially if winning your money from you is a "challenge". Cool
668  Other / Archival / Re: WasabiWallet.io | Open-source, non-custodial Bitcoin Wallet for desktop on: November 05, 2023, 08:58:38 AM
Well, that escalated quickly! Transaction fees are up, but the coinjoin of the week demonstrates how Wasabi adapts to avoid costly dust. No 5000 sat and 6561 sat output denominations were chosen, concentrating value into spendable amounts - https://mempool.space/tx/d79435d0672e3b8dee91979e804e1273d8a69802371f772f64037e0ccbe43af5


It's happy mining again for the mining cartel. Cool

But what would be the cause of the current comgestion/surge in transaction volume, if it's not Ordinals, or some new Bitcoin app built directly on top of Bitcoin on-chain?

I believe some posters would say that it's exchanges merely consolidating UTXOs, but network congestion has been happening for one full day. UTXO consolidation causes a mere spike in fees for probably just one hour.
669  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: November 05, 2023, 08:46:46 AM
The network is currently congested again, but nothing has truly changed in terms of Bitcoin acceptance and adoption. How do we find out if the transactions are real, actual transactions of value/for finance instead of Ordinals transactions?

Bitcoin Stack Exchange says to,

Quote

Look for ASCII "ord" (hex 6f7264) at the appropriate offset in the second† witness component.

https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/118567/how-can-we-check-if-a-transaction-is-an-ordinal-transaction-in-the-mempool


But I'm not a very technical pleb. Haha. What I'm asking is what websites/webapps that gives/shows us transaction data from Ordinals, like perhaps a "blockchain explorer" for Ordinals transactions? Thanks!
670  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Winning Wisely: Strategies to Protect Your Bankroll on: November 04, 2023, 11:22:23 AM
If a "gambler" exclusively plays casino games like Slots, Roulette, and dice games like Craps, then he/she should have the responsibility for himself to DYOR and know that he should be playing these games for entertainment. But if a gambler wants gambling to be some sort of additional income or a "side-job", then he/she should play games that would sometimes give im/her an edge in some situations. According to my DYOR, those games are BlackJack, Poker, and Sports Betting.

BUT, like Day Trading, I believe there should be a point in your journey that if you are not smart enough to beat the other players/the house in BlackJack, Poker, and Sports Betting, accept it early and look for another source of side-income.

Nice comment... there is no "wise" playing & winning when it comes to lucky-based games. It's just playing and if we are lucky we will hit something nice. But when it comes to poker and sports betting we can say that many things depend on our "wise" choices!


But if you like to play those luck-based games, like for instance me I like playing Craps but depending on how you play the game and what strategies you use, the house edge could be as big as 9% or as small as 1.50%.



I personally like starting a game by placing a bet on six and eight, then later expanding on five and nine if I win. If I keep winning, I "build a tower" on six OR eight for a nice win if the dice throws either of those numbers. Cool

Quote

Anyway, the old but gold is "Look before you leap". Some things are easy to say, but only when we get into the fire we can see whether we are built for that or not.


Gamble with an amount you're willing to lose, but don't lose it all in one day.
671  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Amc stock short case and melvin capital leverage question on: November 04, 2023, 11:05:15 AM


Normally let's say you own a stock and you agree to a stock enhancement program by your broker, then the broker can lend that stock to a shorter who then can sell it to open a naked short position in the market, this is available for both retail and institutions.

 

That's not a naked short. That's the usual process of how short selling is legally done in the stock market. A naked short is selling a stock that you don't actually own, and it's illegal in today's market.

Quote

However what happens in some sinister cases, is that the broker gets the lending fee and then lends the same stock again held at its custody, so now you might end up with 100 shares long of a certain stock (let's say GME), but that same quantity might get shorted 2-3x against you; especially if some hedge funds / institutional investors who have close knit relationships with the brokers have a vested interest to keep the price down.

This obviously creates huge problems against fair and orderly market participation...


OK, so Melvin Capital, which had a "special relationship" with its broker and did something illegal? What broker was that? That should be reported to the SEC.


In this context naked short is just an umbrella term for shorting shares you don't own (actually it means unhedged short), if it were strictly done in the "legal" sense you are understanding, no stock would have over 100% of its free float shorted, and yet it happens pretty often for something that was supposedly "banned" years ago  Roll Eyes.

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/how-were-more-than-100-gamestops-shares-shorted-2021-02-18/

Here is just 1 way of how it happens, but I guarantee you there are also other methods through creative accounting practices which brokers excel at, and all these regulations and inspections are easily overlooked when it's an influential hedge fund initiating the short positions...  


OK, then they "cooked" the game and played against the plebs, believing that they will win with Zero Probability of losing, and they may have probably done it many times during the past. That how they might have made most of their capital. Hahaha. But it took just one trade that had the plebs of Reddit coordinating together that broke the institution of Melvin Capital. It was Hubris. Hubris was what caused their death. They could have just taken the loss and covered their short.

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
672  Economy / Economics / Re: "Prepare for deflation in 2023" on: November 03, 2023, 11:31:06 AM
You're absolutely right, but deflation through recession is precisely what the economies around the world need to control inflation. Because if the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other Central Banks around the world won't cause a recession themselves through QT/tightening of the money supply, then inflation will do it for them.

I disagree, it seems to me that deflation and recession are not mutually corrective processes. And what is important - recession, in my opinion, is not able to correct inflation.

Let me explain my position: Recession is a phase of the economic cycle when the economy falls and slows down. A recession is talked about when GDP declines for two quarters. That is, this process leads to a decrease in the circulation of money, but also reduces income and tax revenues to the budget. And this usually leads to the fact that the state will have to borrow money somewhere, because tax revenues are decreasing (state revenues), but mandatory state expenditures are not decreasing.

Therefore, the state either credits or "prints money", which can hardly be called deflation. If I am mistaken - please correct me ?


You're not wrong, but you're talking about something else. When the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks around the world start turning on the money printer and start the pivot to Quantitative Easing, then the situation has changed from that of being deflationary to inflationary. That's not a deflationary period anymore.

A deflationary period/tightening of the money supply, which causes a recession, and therefore curbs inflation, is still needed for the Central Banks to be given room to print money again, but hopefully more responsibly. In the current state of the monetary situation, the Federal Reserve have its hands tied. They can't print more money because risk of reinflation is still high. Core CPI needs to go down under 2%.

Thanks for the clarification, it does seem like we were talking about slightly different entities and processes.
In any case, we will watch the development of the situation, as today there is a high probability of the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, which may lead to a significant increase in oil, which will entail many not very "popular decisions" to support the economies of developed countries. And money printing will be one of the ways to keep the economy "afloat"


Plus Canada. I don't actually know what's the monetary situation in Canada, or if they're also tightening like many of the rest of the other regions, BUT there's some economic data that says that they are going into a recession. I can only presume that's because they're also having their own deflationory cycle because there's no other way unless inflation did it for them, which is obviously more dangerous.
673  Other / Archival / Re: WasabiWallet.io | Open-source, non-custodial Bitcoin Wallet for desktop on: November 03, 2023, 11:19:28 AM
I'm merely taking about layering the process of mixing ser.

You are not talking about "layering the process of mixing", you are accusing me of misinformation by warning people about the profit incentives for mixer sites stealing your Bitcoins and selling your data:

We know that CoinJoins done the right way are superior than traditional mixers, but can you please STOP that. There are newbies in the forum that read our posts. We're here to learn, debate, and find truth in many matters. We can't merely accept that kind of stupid viewpoint from a developer of one popular Bitcoin app.

Misinformation will not work. Write the pros and cons, or simply write the truth.

To the newbies/plebs. Mixers, the honest services, are incentivized by profit. If they do a good service, then more people will use them = more profit. Kruw is merely having a bad mood because of her period.


Because it's debatable if centralized mixing services are actually incentivized to do it. If users find that out, then no one would use that service. How can you say that they are incentivized to do it? It can also be financially bad for them.

OK, for the sake of the discussion about layering the process of mixing, let's use JoinMarket instead of centralized mixers/tumblers.

Quote

But about trusted third parties, isn't zkSNACKS' coordinator a trusted third party?

No, coinjoin coordinators are not trusted with any user funds or user data. Coordinators only provide a messaging service.


OK, but will it work?

- If a Dark Market user sends his UTXOs to himself/herself through Lightning, then use JoinMarket, then send his UTXOs again to himself/herself through Lightning, THEN mix them through WasabiWallet.

Will blockchain analysis detect that it's a layered mix? I believe the connection to those original Dark Market UTXOs would be gone, no?
674  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Amc stock short case and melvin capital leverage question on: November 02, 2023, 11:20:33 AM

Aren't naked shorts illegal? Plus isn't it required under the law that market makers should always provide liquidity in both the bid and ask sides? But OK, whether Melvin Capital cheated or not isn't important anymore. They were still out-traded by the plebs who coordinated their trades in Reddit, a public forum. Haha.
 

Normally let's say you own a stock and you agree to a stock enhancement program by your broker, then the broker can lend that stock to a shorter who then can sell it to open a naked short position in the market, this is available for both retail and institutions.

 

That's not a naked short. That's the usual process of how short selling is legally done in the stock market. A naked short is selling a stock that you don't actually own, and it's illegal in today's market.

Quote

However what happens in some sinister cases, is that the broker gets the lending fee and then lends the same stock again held at its custody, so now you might end up with 100 shares long of a certain stock (let's say GME), but that same quantity might get shorted 2-3x against you; especially if some hedge funds / institutional investors who have close knit relationships with the brokers have a vested interest to keep the price down.

This obviously creates huge problems against fair and orderly market participation...


OK, so Melvin Capital, which had a "special relationship" with its broker and did something illegal? What broker was that? That should be reported to the SEC.

Quote


Plus their Subreddits were banned, which made it harder for the community to coordinate. Perhaps next time they use more than one stock brokers, and coordinate in Discord + Telegram.

Should theymos welcome them in the forum? I believe their plebs and our plebs could learn from each other.

Hahah, yes that's an excellent idea, there is great overlap between wallstreetbets degens and crypto degens...


🤝

Front-run the billionaires together.
675  Economy / Economics / Re: "Prepare for deflation in 2023" on: November 02, 2023, 11:07:55 AM
You're absolutely right, but deflation through recession is precisely what the economies around the world need to control inflation. Because if the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other Central Banks around the world won't cause a recession themselves through QT/tightening of the money supply, then inflation will do it for them.

I disagree, it seems to me that deflation and recession are not mutually corrective processes. And what is important - recession, in my opinion, is not able to correct inflation.

Let me explain my position: Recession is a phase of the economic cycle when the economy falls and slows down. A recession is talked about when GDP declines for two quarters. That is, this process leads to a decrease in the circulation of money, but also reduces income and tax revenues to the budget. And this usually leads to the fact that the state will have to borrow money somewhere, because tax revenues are decreasing (state revenues), but mandatory state expenditures are not decreasing.

Therefore, the state either credits or "prints money", which can hardly be called deflation. If I am mistaken - please correct me ?


You're not wrong, but you're talking about something else. When the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks around the world start turning on the money printer and start the pivot to Quantitative Easing, then the situation has changed from that of being deflationary to inflationary. That's not a deflationary period anymore.

A deflationary period/tightening of the money supply, which causes a recession, and therefore curbs inflation, is still needed for the Central Banks to be given room to print money again, but hopefully more responsibly. In the current state of the monetary situation, the Federal Reserve have its hands tied. They can't print more money because risk of reinflation is still high. Core CPI needs to go down under 2%.
676  Economy / Gambling / Re: Blackjack.fun |Up To 80% RakeBack |SLOTS|SPORTS|ESPORTS| JACK Token on: November 02, 2023, 10:51:34 AM
Guys. Thank you for participating on our Freeroll tournaments.

This is very important for us because we need to test with a lot of players. Very sorry about the bugs. But absolutely after every bigger tourney we discovered new bugs and fixed them. Every time the experience is going better and better. Thats the whole point of freerolls where no one dont have to risk with their own funds. We just give money for free because the product is not perfect yet. But we are working hard every day. Eventually it will be the best.

In 20m we host another 100 USDT Blackjack freeroll.
https://blackjack.fun/tournament/MRX7pl1L
Anyone can participate.

Constructive feedback helps us a lot.

Good luck!


Keep the Freeroll Tournaments open, and I'm confident the community that BlackJack.fun has boot-strapped and built will keep playing them and give more bug reports and feature requests.

 Cool

Plus don't be apologetic, because the players themelves should know that the Freerolls are there to help improve the UI/UX and fix the other bugs in the casino, and therefore make it a better experience for them too. What helps you, helps them.
677  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Winning Wisely: Strategies to Protect Your Bankroll on: November 02, 2023, 09:21:29 AM
But people are so naive and I hear some of them arguing offline on this as though it's possible if they put more effort. This is the effort they would put in it till they are old as no one can defeat gambling the way they think but to just have fun through it and also earn as much or as little as they can.

There will always be debates both offline and online whether it is gamblers who consider gambling as entertainment and gamblers who chase wealth, sometimes gamblers who chase victory are always confident that they can beat the dealer, but in fact it doesn't take long for casinos and dealers to make them poor. short time, it is difficult to advise naive people because their minds are very different from gamblers who are just looking for fun, and even when they are old they will not listen.

I think they have to know a lot and even experience a lot of defeats to understand that gambling is not a place where we can get wealth easily let alone make it a source of permanent income, obviously that is impossible to do because what I know is that gambling is just entertainment that can provide The user's pleasure is not just money and wealth.


If a "gambler" exclusively plays casino games like Slots, Roulette, and dice games like Craps, then he/she should have the responsibility for himself to DYOR and know that he should be playing these games for entertainment. But if a gambler wants gambling to be some sort of additional income or a "side-job", then he/she should play games that would sometimes give im/her an edge in some situations. According to my DYOR, those games are BlackJack, Poker, and Sports Betting.

BUT, like Day Trading, I believe there should be a point in your journey that if you are not smart enough to beat the other players/the house in BlackJack, Poker, and Sports Betting, accept it early and look for another source of side-income.
678  Other / Archival / Re: WasabiWallet.io | Open-source, non-custodial Bitcoin Wallet for desktop on: November 01, 2023, 02:21:21 PM
government-approved, blockchain analyltics-audited UTXOs that are marked clean and free from "taint".

I bet $1000 that you will have any coinjoined bitcoin rejected from at least one centralized exchange, Wasabi or not.


Ask Kruw if he's confident enough that he can assure that that will not happen to Wasabi users.

Get the context of what's being discussed ser. It's not about giving up custody

I am following the context of what's being discussed. You are desperate to take advantage of newbies by convincing them that they should use "mixing sites", which are honeypots of data that can steal your coins:


I'm merely taking about layering the process of mixing ser. What about, send your UTXO's through Lightning, mix/tumble through a mixer, send again through Lightning, then on-chain, then send to Wasabi's coordinator? I believe that could be successful in not getting false positives, no?

In Lightning -> Mixer -> Lightning, what data could a mixer possibly get assuming that the user is using the service behind TOR + VPN?

Quote

To the newbies/plebs. Mixers, the honest services, are incentivized by profit. If they do a good service, then more people will use them = more profit. Kruw is merely having a bad mood because of her period.

I am here (along with Theymos) to warn users NOT to use these centralized "mixers":

For everyone looking to improve their privacy, I highly recommend checking out Wasabi, especially over centralized "mixers".

You can insult Theymos and I by saying we are on our periods, but we are protecting newbs from having their coins stolen or tracked. In the spirit of the 15th anniversary, you should also read the Bitcoin whitepaper and see what Satoshi Nakamoto had to say about trusted third parties:

Quote from: Satoshi Nakamoto
A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution. Digital signatures provide part of the solution, but the main benefits are lost if a trusted third party is still required to prevent double-spending.


Insult? Pardon me, that was meant to be funny, not offense. But about trusted third parties, isn't zkSNACKS' coordinator a trusted third party?
679  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2023 end game sentiment check on: November 01, 2023, 02:03:58 PM
The month of octobar remains positive mostly due to its previous month's usual negative price action. The month of november can be positive or negative but from december to march before the year of bitcoin halving, the bitcoin market shows a correction to liquidate long and short positions is mass before the bull starts its rally. This is historically accurate but this time it can be different though i think history will repeat itself this time too. I don't think the bitcoin price will exceed 40k this year nor will it go down to the $28k level.


Ser, it was what they say as the month of UPtober. But for the month of November, I believe there was a Bitcoin price monthly table that was posted in one of the topics that illustrates that November = MOONvember.

Cool

Plus I agree that there's some probability that Bitcoin crashes before it surges after the halving, BUT that would be caused by something very unexpected. A Black Swan, and there's no point in trying to know because actually knowing before it happened would make it not a Black Swan.
680  Economy / Economics / Re: "Prepare for deflation in 2023" on: November 01, 2023, 11:57:09 AM
I would welcome deflation because of the reasons of inflation that I have witnessed and I think that it would be a good time to accumulate BTC because the prices of daily living would have been reduced, thus enabling more funds to be channeled to other areas.

Currently, the interest rates are higher than normal and I believe the prices of commodities would reduce but interest rates may linger for a duration because once prices go up, it's always hard for it to come down.


I have been around a long time. You see some deflation in electronics and tech. but most everything else just goes up and 🆙.


But those products are relatively still expensive, no? A good, brand new smart phone still can't be afforded by most plebs if they don't have a credit card or any kind of access to credit.

Everyone dislikes inflation... It's hard to argue. But deflation is the "other side of the coin", and noticeable deflation is not a gift either. It's from the realm of "everything seems fine, but it's getting worse and worse every day" Smiley

"Deflation is a steady decline in the prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.
As demand falls, companies are forced to reduce production and lower prices. Fewer employees are needed to produce less goods, and companies start laying off staff, which leads to higher unemployment. Increased unemployment causes demand to fall because people have less money."

In this situation, I would favor low inflation, so stimulate the economy and invest the "skinny money"


You're absolutely right, but deflation through recession is precisely what the economies around the world need to control inflation. Because if the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other Central Banks around the world won't cause a recession themselves through QT/tightening of the money supply, then inflation will do it for them.
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