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561  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Social media mass surveillance is permitted by law, says top UK official on: June 21, 2014, 05:17:57 PM
People should not post information on the internet/social networking site if they do not wish other to see.

Trusting social networking site with your private information is borderline idiocy.

562  Economy / Economics / Re: The people should be in control of money supply on: June 21, 2014, 04:31:29 PM
The people do control the money supply in a way.

All they need to do is stop borrowing from bank and pay back the debt. Money supply will shrink sharply unless the government go on spending spree.
563  Economy / Economics / Re: Could take 5-8 years to shrink Fed portfolio: Yellen on: June 21, 2014, 04:19:34 PM
There's no apparent need in cutting the portfolio. It will decrease naturally as bonds mature.
If there's a need in soaking up the excessive liquidity they have a range of other instruments, namely repos and manipulating rates on excess reserves.
The fed would need to reinvest the proceeds of matured bonds into new bonds or else liquidity would dry up.
When US treasury bonds mature the treasury must issue more bonds to repay the bonds that are maturing. If the Fed does not buy some of those bonds then the effect would be the same as if it had sold the bonds in the open market.

Are you saying that 80% of the Treasury bonds sold by the U.S. are bought by the Fed, and if the Fed doesn't buy them, nobody else will? That can't be true! Wink

If the fed don't buy the bond, the interest rate will most likely go up the roof as no rational bank or institution will lend the government at near 0% rate.
Nope. The interest rates will likely adjust, but not up the roof (what is considered the roof btw?  Cheesy).

In the late 70's and early 80's, Paul Volcker had to raise interest to 20% to kill inflation and end stagflation. Zombie companies need to die to free up the labors and resources for more efficient use.

Given the huge debt Federal, states and consumers have today, the interest rate will most likely need to go higher to clean up the system and let people go bankrupt and start from fresh.




564  Economy / Economics / Re: How profitable are exchanges? on: June 21, 2014, 04:01:20 PM
Similarly, if two exchanges agree to show their order books to each other, a couple of seconds before they are posted to the public, they can exploit all opportunities for arbitrage between them.  Any client who tries to do arbitrage will then find that the prices have always shifted against him between the time that he places an order and the time that it gets executed.
Easy for an experienced trader to detect this, as they watch the price on multiple exchanges at the same time.
How exactly?  To the people watching the logs, those insider trades would be indistinguishable from normal trades.

Without the insider trades, an outsider would occasionally see a difference in price lasting long enough for him to exploit.  With insider trades, there would be fewer such opportunities; and when one appears, before the client can execute his trade there would appear another trade exploiting the difference and eliminating it.

Specifically, for example: the outsider sees that on exchange A the highest bid is 450$, on exchange B the lowest ask is 440$. He submits a buy order on B for 440$, but before it gets executed, someone else buys that offer; his own order just lands on the book, unfilled, while the lowest ask on B has jumped to 455$.  How can he tell that the buy that succeeded was insider arbitrage, rather than a normal trade at B, or A-B arbitrage by a luckier competitor?


Insider arbitrage is fine in my book. They are providing liquidity and market participants are benefiting by having their order filled at limit price.

The cost of moving money from one exchange to another exchange isn't free nor cheap nor convenient. If the exchange is providing this service because they can move larger quantity of money at fix cost, then they are adding benefit to both the exchange and all users on the exchange.

 


565  Economy / Economics / Re: How profitable are exchanges? on: June 21, 2014, 07:25:12 AM
With no regulations and no auditing, exchanges could make lots of money besides the fees that they charge.

For instance, by delaying the trade logs for a couple of seconds, they can intercept client trades and "steal" some of their money.  Suppose that the lowest ask is 500$/BTC and the highest bid is 480$/BTC. Supose that Alice posts a sell offer of 1 BTC at 485. One second later Bob, who still cannot see Alice's offer, posts a bid for 1 BTC at 495.  Normally Bob's bid would be filled with Alice's offer, and he would save 10$.  But the exchange operator sees the two crossed orders, and inserts between them a buy order of 1 BTC at 485 (that takes Alice's coin), and a sell offer of 1 BTC at 495 (that fills Bob's bid).  The two transactions show up in the log and everything seems normal, and both Alice and Bob are happy that their orders got filled so promptly -- but the 10$ now goes to the exchange, instead of Bob.

Similarly, if two exchanges agree to show their order books to each other, a couple of seconds before they are posted to the public, they can exploit all opportunities for arbitrage between them.  Any client who tries to do arbitrage will then find that the prices have always shifted against him between the time that he places an order and the time that it gets executed.

There must be many other tricks, even more profitable than these, that exchange operators can pull.  I suppose that zero-fee exchanges, like Huobi and OKCoin, get their revenue from such insider trading.  Iam told that such tricks are totally illegal for regulated stock and currency exchanges.

Obviously, any money that the exchanges make, from fees or otherwise, must come out of their clients' pockets.


Easy for an experience trader to detect this, as they watch the price on multiple exchanges at the same time.


566  Other / Politics & Society / Re: China's scary growth! on: June 20, 2014, 09:16:49 PM
China is the world's biggest exporter, and the world's second importer, with 1.2 billion people!
So yeah the growth in China's economy is huge.
By 2020 , China is expected to surpass the USA in gdp.  Shocked Shocked Shocked

It is unlikely that US will let China get to the top without challenge.

Who really know if a direct confrontation/global war will benefit/hurt who the most?

567  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Wash Your Brain - Hollywood Mind Control on: June 20, 2014, 09:02:15 PM
All marketing strategy is a form of mind control also.

Goal is to make people pay for expensive over price crap.

Louis Vuitton probably does it better than most when it tries to convince consumer that the same handbag with their logo on it is worth 100-1000 times more than one without the logo on it.
568  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Trading based on "Rich List"? Which Wallets are whales and which aren't on: June 20, 2014, 08:50:28 PM
Exchange are whales even if it is not their own coin.

Anyone of them going bust or shut down involuntary will have huge ramification for bitcoin.


This is probably what you are looking for:
http://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html

Addresses that don't have activity for a while should considered lost wallet.


And you can't "trade" based on movement of the coin. As trading itself only change the database record.


569  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Poll : do you trust an exchange to hold your bitcoins ? on: June 20, 2014, 08:34:47 PM
Of course I don't trust exchanges. Look at bitcoin exchanges' histories, generally. Think about Gox. I spread my coins across 5 exchanges (3 BTC/USD, 2 BTC/alt), to keep from having my trading coins in one place. I know the floor could fall out at anytime.

Mtgox problems came out around June last year when people not able to get their fiat out. It didn't suddenly just go bust.

People paying attention already use their cash to buy bitocoin to transfer out.


The current batch of exchanges have more to lose than gain from stealing.
570  Economy / Economics / Re: The United States has finally recovered the jobs lost during the Great Recession on: June 20, 2014, 08:00:52 PM
What Obama and company will not do is have this question asked:

"Of those that have lost their jobs and got ones back- how many have a job situation equal or better then what they originally lost."

Ding ding ding! People that once had solid middle class jobs with full benefits are now working shitty independent contractor jobs. It's not really the same thing.


Market competition isn't pleasant. The rest of the world finally caught up with US in term of technology know-how as well as having good infrastructure and quality worker. And they can produce at cheaper cost.

Companies that used to support middle class can now do it cheaper abroad. The trend of outsourcing will continue unless US find something unique they can produce that the rest of the world demand.
571  Economy / Economics / Re: How to strengthen a country's currency? on: June 20, 2014, 07:43:36 PM
There are many such ways to do this; have a good credit record, not default on loans, have high interest rates, have a strong legal system, have a good business environment, have high quality workers, good infrastructure, political stability, high exports, strong financial system, etc.
Now many of those are long term sort of things, but short term, interest rates, balance of trade changes, political stability, etc.

These are the conditions needed for a strong currency, not "how" to strengthen the currency.

To strengthen a country currency, offer what the world need.

Invest in export and tourism industry. If the country has high debt, reduce it and live within the mean certainly help.

Let the market set the currency rate and the interest rate. If the country want to excel in service type industry, invest in telecommunication infrastructure (high speed internet). If the county want to excel in manufacturing type industry, invest in highway, power grid and low cost power and clean water.

Final point,  find the country unique advantage that can be done efficiently and offer the product/service to another country.


If this country already self sufficient, there is little need for international trade and hence no need for strong currency.



 
572  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DRK] DarkCoin | First Anonymous Coin | First X11 | First DGW | ** HARD FORK JUNE 20TH ** on: June 20, 2014, 07:14:48 PM
Did something bad just happen? The plan update didn't go well?

Price of darkcoin crashed from around 12.4 USD to 8.5 USD on bitfinex just now.
573  Economy / Economics / Re: The United States has finally recovered the jobs lost during the Great Recession on: June 20, 2014, 07:13:07 PM
Labor participation rate would be a more useful indicator on the employment situation in the US.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000


574  Economy / Economics / Re: bitcoin and money laundering on: June 20, 2014, 06:57:41 PM
Money laundering will always exist.
It will probably get harder with time (in what refers to bitcoin), but there will always be a way.
Maybe a time will come where cash becomes the main vehicle for laundering Smiley


Bitcoin is a poor form of medium for money laundering. IP address can be traced.

Even if you use anonymous browser to conduct illicit activity, if you are not careful into divulging your shipping address (or near by address), authority will use the information to deduce your identity. And cashing out large amount of bitcoin anonymously will be difficult.


Cash is still the best medium for money laundering. Trade off being it is hard to store bulk amount and you need to hire trusted personal to guard it.



575  Economy / Economics / Re: Why the fuck do we still use cash? on: June 20, 2014, 06:44:46 PM
From a merchant standpoint, cash = no fees. From a consumer standpoint, some level of anonymity with purchases. And some business still take only cash, as ancient as it sounds. My favorite Thai restaurant is cash only. Smiley

Yes. Cash is still the cheapest form of transaction for local exchange of good and service.


Bitcoin is only good if you are doing small scale foreign purchase. The saving comes from for conversion and transfer fee.

Large scale foreign purchases work as well -- very cheap (with bitcoin). But obviously, any company of scale could not operate in such manner, given that most overhead costs would need to be paid in fiat.


Depend on how "large" is the transaction. Based on market depth, and assuming the receiving merchant do not want to hold bitcoin, I think a few million bitcoin in USD will move the market 5-10%.




576  Economy / Economics / Re: Russia & China bypass USD on: June 20, 2014, 06:40:26 PM
China already have bilateral currency agreement with some countries to by pass USD.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internationalization_of_the_renminbi


Isn't it interesting to see Ukraine is on the list also? May be US will pick their next target on the list.


577  Economy / Economics / Re: Why the fuck do we still use cash? on: June 20, 2014, 06:31:59 PM
From a merchant standpoint, cash = no fees. From a consumer standpoint, some level of anonymity with purchases. And some business still take only cash, as ancient as it sounds. My favorite Thai restaurant is cash only. Smiley

Yes. Cash is still the cheapest form of transaction for local exchange of good and service.


Bitcoin is only good if you are doing small scale foreign purchase. The saving comes from for conversion and transfer fee.

578  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin or Gold? What would you pick? on: June 20, 2014, 06:25:15 PM
For long term, gold.

You can see and touch gold. And it can exists as a stand alone item without dependency on technology. It has proven itself to be money for longer than 1000 years.

As for bitcoin, you can't touch and see bitcoin. It can not exists without the blockchain and internet. It hasn't proven itself to be money for more than 2-3 years.




579  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Is it profitable to mine? on: June 20, 2014, 06:11:51 PM
I think the current price is very low to make a profitable mining, some people say it will reach the $1000 or more by the end of July, so we

need to wait. A good option for now would be ALTcoins mining.

As the price adjust upward, so will the network difficulty and the additional supply.

The golden age of mining is over. People can't even ROI after taking out all the expense and equipment depreciation.
580  Economy / Auctions / Re: Exchange for sale - Coinnext on: June 20, 2014, 02:20:32 PM
I think closing it down would be a horrible waste, should just keep controlling interest in it and turn it over. If they do not run it up to par you can take it back over plain and simple. At least this way you have a chance to recoup your money instead of just kissing it good bye.


They lose money every month on it, closing down would be a sensible thing to do. More sensible would be to sell cheaper. Its better to get something than nothing.

And yes, the software etc is all worth more than the opening bid. Except that your buying a business, not a custom script. Thus you sell at what the business is worth, not what you paid for it

Your logic doesn't make any sense, you agree the software is worth more stand-alone, but that same software tested and running live/doing trades/having around 500 free visits daily/getting around 20 users daily is somehow worth less? On the contrary the software stand-alone would actually be worth less, although not by much as I've priced this auction very competitively already.
Also, we did not just buy a "custom script" as you suggest, I thought it was clear we are engineers by trade who made everything from the ground up and completely tailored to cryptocurrencies.
I think it's fair to say you are not interested AcoinLLC, you seem someone who invests in small businesses expecting a steady, mostly passive return. Running a financial exchange is obviously not something for you, it's a very serious project to take on I really want to warn people for that, this is really not something that can be approached like you do small businesses. We can argue all day about what you think is a fair price but it's really rather pointless.

To take on project on this scale, the person/business buying it would need a development team and marketing team on board.

I would jump on board if I have a team of people with me. Sadly, I don't.


Judging from various posts here, I seriously doubt you can find people with the mindset to take on project this scale. Most people here just trying to find quick buck.





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