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1041  Economy / Economics / Re: buying bitcoin is like immigrating to a new country on: July 12, 2019, 09:34:57 PM
First of all, I appreciate your skepticism. But I'm not sure whether or not "immigrating to a new country" is the right analogy to make.

It seems nobody knows how many whales are out there, these whales maybe extremely selfish. Therefore, it is like a country with UNKNOWN Gini coefficient and UNKNOWN leaders, therefore very UNCLEAR economic future. In other words, it is very difficult to predict its future.

The question probably boils down to, do the whales matter in terms of keeping bitcoin's network running? Is a leader required for the network to function? The answer to both these questions is a clear and decisive no.

Sure, traders with large positions are able to influence the markets in a drastic way; but in what open market is this statement not true? Virtually in every market, futures, stocks, commodities there are big players and small players, that's just the way it is.

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From what I understand, if we consider in the near future, even if the scaling problem are completely solved, bitcoin may still fail because reasons list above in terms of wealth distribution. If you buy bitcoin now, it is like immigrating to a new country. Never underestimate the possibility that bitcoin may go to zero. Do NOT be too confident with bitcoin and put all your money in it.

You have to realize that wealth distribution isn't something that the currency itself can solve. Also, looking at the gini coefficient of BTC alone doesn't tell you the whole picture, since a lot of coins are centralized at certain exchanges that do not legally belong to these exchanges.

At least with bitcoin, you are sure that wealth distribution is transparent and immutable. Contrast that to fiat, and you'll see the obvious benefits.
1042  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Can We Expect A Legally Compliant Bitcoin Bank Soon? on: July 12, 2019, 09:18:53 PM
Quote
I am wondering if it is possible that there would be a physical bank operating somewhere that is fully compliant with the banking laws but focusing on cryptocurrency business? I mean a bank that can be providing the usual banking services but all things are tied to bitcoin or cryptocurrency.

The bank should offer bitcoin debit and credit cards and of course will operate bitcoin ATM machines. In the bank you can file a loan with your bitcoin or crypto as the collateral. Maybe even have the facility where you can deposit your bitcoin under the bank's safety platform.

Is this just a dream or is there a possibility that this can happen eventually maybe 10 or 20 years from now? Or maybe in the first place there is no need nor demand for this?

My answer is no, despite the overwhelming amount of "yeses" within this thread.

However, the reason is not that there is a lack of demand for such a facility, or even that it's not technically feasible - these prerequisites can both be fulfilled. The problems arise from the regulator's side, where with the tightening regulations, being completely legally compliant comes at an extremely large cost, especially when you compound that with the already high establishment costs of a physical storefront.

Maybe if you shifted the criteria to "virtual & physical" instead of physical only, there would be a higher possibility. But for a physically operational bank to completely shift their loan and savings denominations to bitcoin, all the while complying with every clause of every regulation, is next to impossible at this stage.
1043  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2019-07-11] Trump apparently knows what Bitcoin is, and he doesn’t like it on: July 12, 2019, 09:09:35 PM
Trump is tweeting about Bitcoin -- and Facebook's Libra -- and apparently isn't a fan of either one. About 1.5 hours ago, he published this series of tweets:

Quote
I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity....

....Similarly, Facebook Libra’s “virtual currency” will have little standing or dependability. If Facebook and other companies want to become a bank, they must seek a new Banking Charter and become subject to all Banking Regulations, just like other Banks, both National...

...and International. We have only one real currency in the USA, and it is stronger than ever, both dependable and reliable. It is by far the most dominant currency anywhere in the World, and it will always stay that way. It is called the United States Dollar!

Link to tweet: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1149472282584072192
Link to story from The Verge: https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/11/20691188/president-donald-trump-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-facebook-libra

The whole Libra thing is beginning to feel like a Trojan horse. Congress immediately used it as a pretense for cryptocurrency regulation. Now Trump is signalling that he might support a clampdown as well.

This was why I never felt like Libra was the glorious thing people made it out to be.

And now, people are grouping Libra in the exact same category with Bitcoin, despite obvious differences in how the money supply of each is managed and how their values are derived from, if you know anything about economics.

It's almost like an excuse. It's like saying "we got this new Libra thing that is threatening our central banks, and we've also got btc which we don't like - we're just going to shoot both of these problems with regulation of Libra as a premise".

But honestly, what's surprising here? Nobody was expecting the president to be pro-bitcoin to begin with, and all the points he raised are obvious fallacies that have been debunked time and time again. And you can essentially see the same picture by looking at the BTC markets, which almost didn't move.
1044  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Will Move up 25 -30x Faster Than Gold Says, Max Keiser on: July 12, 2019, 09:00:23 PM
Most popular faces of Crypto industry are regularly posting their views on the king coin.

One of the well-known crypto enthusiast and Co-founder of  Heisenberg Capital, Max Keiser believes Bitcoin price will move 25 -30 times faster to the upside than Gold.

What's your take on this, will bitcoin price increase?

I don't agree with how this data seemed to be formulated, since it feels like it's been a completely arbitrary projection. But the general trajectory is certainly going to be that bitcoin's growth will outpace gold's growth in the long run.

Bitcoin is essentially the best digital substitute for gold as a store of value as we have right now. Even people at the Federal Reserve are admitting this (look at the news that just came out if you haven't already, regarding the Fed). It's also experiencing a whole ton more of adoption and thus, increase in demand than gold, not to mention the gradual paradigm shift of gold bugs to opening their minds to cryptocurrencies as a viable safe haven as well.

At the end of the day, as I said, I wouldn't put too much weight on the 25-30x figure he produced - since there is no clear evidence that he's used any legitimate analysis to reach that figure. But I certainly think that over the next few decades, despite gold's status of a global reserve currency will still be there, it will probably diminish somewhat.
1045  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Local bitcoin tier verification issue! on: July 12, 2019, 08:49:41 PM
Is there any way to get around the bank statement? Some other document? What if someone lives mostly off-the-grid and only does in-person cash trades?

1. I don't think that there is even an option for in person cash trades anymore on localbitcoins. If you click on "post a trade" you'll be greeted with 2 options only, none of which is cash-related:



2. You raise a very valid concern, but it's not within LBC's powers to make a change imo. They're likely only doing this because of regulatory pressures. They simply wouldn't do this if there was none of that - they know well enough that they'd be losing out on a lot of potential customers.

However, Tier 1 verification is still available for these people, and I'm fairly sure that you're still able to trade anonymously or with little legitimate verification for an amount up to $1k cumulative.
1046  Economy / Economics / Re: Bill Holter and Jim Sinclair: Gold $87000 per Ounce at Least on: July 12, 2019, 04:03:51 AM
First of all, I'm not saying that this figure that they put out is an impossibility. It could well happen if there was to be hyperinflation; but the numbers that they've put out are completely arbitrary with no basis.

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Legendary investor Jim Sinclair and his business partner Bill Holter say Gold is going much higher. It’s a mathematical certainty. Sinclair says, “You need to look at gold, not a speculation, but as a savings account. If the dollar gets sliced in half, you basically double the value (of your gold) if not more. I think much more.

If you look at this statement, it's not entirely true.

They're completely ignoring any short term volatility. USD devaluing does not necessarily transfer dollar by dollar into gold. Otherwise, why has there been no apparent major movements in gold prices over the last few years, even a whole decade, despite CPI rising? Putting forth this oversimplified argument is definitely a trend in the majority of gold bugs, including the infamous Schiff. But it rarely pans out.

Also, they're not taking into account the demand for gold in the long run. Even if fiat does devalue by half, yet demand for gold decreases for whatever reason (which we are somewhat seeing since its store of value properties and status as a global reserve asset can now be substituted somewhat by cryptos), then the price will not trend exactly in the same way as inflation.

Predictions like these for gold I tend to ignore, despite there being merits for holding gold as a hedge still, because of how certain they make it seem. "Mathematical certainty", they say  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
1047  Economy / Economics / Re: Gregory Mannarino: Get Out Of The Central Banks System, Currency Devaluation on: July 11, 2019, 11:52:43 PM
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Greg Mannarino, founder of TradersChoice.net, says the only thing you can count on in this economy is more debt being created. Mannarino says, “World central banks’ power exists in one thing, and that is their ability to issue debt. The more debt they issue, the stronger they become. So, they are loving this.”

Mannarino says the end game is simple, and that is “a gigantic wealth transfer effect. The global central banks are going to create a massive, massive problem, and then they are going to offer a solution. It’s the same scenario over and over again.”

Mannarino says central banks are signaling “this is the time to buy gold and silver because they are telling you they are going to create debt and devalue global currencies.” Mannarino says, “Get out of their system and become your own central bank by getting hard assets like physical gold and silver.”

Especially when it comes to financial crises. Central banks seem to be extremely welcome of the idea of bailing out large institutions and offering as much credit and liquidity as they need - even though it comes at the expense of debasing the currency supply, essentially, and that you're making these institutions more complacent, despite the fact that it's as a result of their own mistakes.

In the short run, central banks' influence and discretion over the money supply, interest rates etc. may be counter-cyclical. But in the long run, I don't think that their effects will be any good at all.

Just look at the primary 'product' of all central banks, their fiat currencies. There has been none in history that has preserved its value past several decades. While I don't necessarily think that gold and silver will be the alternative people will flock to like gold bugs seem to suggest (due to the convenience and uprising of BTC, in particular, which serves the same purpose), blindly trusting in this centrally controlled fiat system as a long term store of value isn't any good either.
1048  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2019-07-11] Bitcoin Price Slips 10% in 24 Hrs as Fed Raises Facebook Libra... on: July 11, 2019, 11:44:42 PM
Quote from: Slow death
According to this news the price increased a lot because of Libra? Can this be considered true? because if this is true then the crypto world is lost, how the hell are people still being influenced by things like these "LIbra"? What the hell people have in the heads? Libra  is a project that is not even in the market and in execution and people are having high expectations for something that is not working in practice? this is looking like the altcoin with its pump and dump scheme.

I completely echo your sentiments in regards to this Libra idea. Investors simply don't seem to realize that it is completely unrelated to the decentralized bitcoin, but it is understandable why they seem to fall into this fallacy since sensationalist mainstream media is hyping it up so much.

But I honestly don't think that this dump is something that is caused by Libra alone, even though this is most likely one of the contributing factors, rational or not. Panic dumping by weak hands, as well as the strong resistance at $13k, are both factors.

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“Libra raises serious concerns regarding privacy, money laundering, consumer protection, financial stability,” he said during a speech before a congressional committee. “These are concerns that should be thoroughly and publicly addressed.”

I'm not surprised at what the Fed said at all, though. I've long thought that Libra was a project that won't be welcomed by the decentralized end of the spectrum (i.e., bitcoin holders), nor the centralized end, i.e., central banks, due to the fact that even though it is still a centralized currency, it still takes away control in an explicit way from central banks.

The Fed's primary concern imo is that from the implementation of Libra, they wouldn't be able to implement and maintain monetary policy as effectively if it was adopted on a massive scale. From a regulator's perspective, it always raises concerns for them given the global nature of this thing. I wouldn't be surprised if the ECB or other central banks issue similar statements in the future, but I don't think this should affect BTC at all, if markets were perfectly rational.
1049  Economy / Economics / Re: Money, crypto, IEOs. Infographics on: July 11, 2019, 11:26:55 PM
I think that the risks of IEOs are still there, and they are severely understated (for obvious reasons) by the exchanges who offer them.

You've got the obvious risk that you have an added counterparty, i.e. the exchange itself, with whom you have to trust the funds with. While this is a lower risk in terms of them just exit scamming, it is still a risk, especially when you factor in concerns such as account suspensions and frozen balances.

I think that you gotta also consider the legitimacy of the project itself still. While the exchange probably does screen out certain obvious scams, there is no guarantee that projects on their platform are going to continue to be developed AFTER they raise their funds. IEOs only address the risk of the project itself taking the money and running away.

Lastly, you have to realize that by having an exchange platform like this offer floats, investor complacency will fuel more bubbles with the added liquidity. Is it reduced risk in aggregate? Potentially, but it's not perfect.
1050  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Beware - scam e-mail "Limited Period Promotion - Ant miner S17 Pro" on: July 11, 2019, 11:15:18 PM
Quote
Somehow some mailing lists from Bitmain has to be leaked out, cause this e-mail box I'm using is connected with Bitmain only
Eyes open - always look who is the sender and do not trust any special offer

Are you sure of this, and you're not signed up to any other accounts with this email that is crypto related? I checked my email registered with Bitmain and haven't received anything.

The email itself is relatively benign since it is so obvious, and probably will get flagged as spam soon anyways. It should be the compromised database that should be a concern, since a lot of people who have an account with them also have accounts on other crypto-related sites with the same account that could be potentially affected.

I don't think that Bitmain has recently released any info regarding a leak of their database. They might need to be notified  Undecided
1051  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2019-07-01]From 'Ponzi' to 'We're Working on It’ — BIS Chief Reverses Stance on on: July 11, 2019, 11:04:06 PM
Quote
“Many central banks are working on it; we are working on it, supporting them,” he said.

“And it might be that it is sooner than we think that there is a market and we need to be able to provide central bank digital currencies.”

The comments struck a curious note with many, coming just months after Carstens emphatically advised against issuing such digital currencies. In a speech in March, he listed various risks for banks considering doing so, arguing innovation should not come too fast.

I think that the BIS's vision is entirely different from what this article is trying to suggest.

Their stance is probably still quite anti-decentralization, given their obvious affiliations with the world's central banks all over. Which means that what they are probably focusing on are blockchain projects (presumably, ones on a national scale) that utilize blockchain technology to facilitate faster international settlement, which is one of their primary functions.

I don't necessarily think that their stance has shifted significantly on currencies like bitcoin. While the article makes it seem like that they are eyeing BTC as potentially a reserve currency in the future, they are likely referring to some central bank issued digital currency. I.e., reserve accounts, except cryptographically secured.
1052  Economy / Exchanges / Re: How is your Cryptopia's low-cap coin dealing with the Cryptopia's liquidators? on: July 11, 2019, 10:57:42 PM
It's interesting; many low-cap coins are afraid of possible Crytopia's stash dumping, which can possibly take the value of their project to zero (at least for a little while) because of lack of buy orders across other exchanges.

Here are a few examples of how these low-cap projects are currently avoiding the possible liquidations of their coins (by Cryptopia's liquidators) across the remaining exchanges:

-HUSH:

While migrating to KMD-based chain from ZEC-based chain, they airdropped the new coins across all the addresses except for Cryptopia's address.

-PIRL:

Simple hard-fork that took away Cryptopia's coins from them.

-XBY:

Took the same decision as PIRL.

How's your Cryptopia's low-cap project handling this situation?

This is quite an interesting scenario.

What these projects are doing is debatable, because it essentially shows that their operations are still somewhat centralized. Sure, they may be saving their projects in the short term from a dump, but in the long run it does no good for their project's image. I'm sure anyone with a vested stake at Cryptopia would hate to see this happen as well.

Also, even if there was to be a large scale dump by Cryptopia to recoup losses and reimburse people, how would they do so effectively when there is only extremely limited liquidity for these coins to begin with since their market caps are so damn low?  That's what I don't get.
1053  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin seems to drop faster than rises on: July 11, 2019, 10:50:13 PM
It seems to me that while BTC clearly goes up over time, the drops seem much more steep eg x 2 or 3 than the rises almost always.

Why is this?

It seems the one predictable thing about BTC.

I'd attribute this to basic human psychology.

You see this across all markets, whether stock markets, property markets, etc. where the price of the asset may go on a multi-year bullish run, only to be met with some form of flash crash at one point or another. It's not limited to just BTC.

Traders within the market are more prone to panic when they see a sudden trend reversal from bullish to bearish, than the other way around. Especially when you factor in the skepticism that people have at the start of a bull market. i.e., if you follow the bubble graph, it's not until euphoria kicks in when people's fomo and greed outweighs any common sense.

TLDR; Do you panic more when your investment is shrinking, or is your propensity of buying more coins greater when your investment is on the up? Probably the former.
1054  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: TerraGreen Bounty KYC-Scam - changed rules of their bounty and refused payments on: July 11, 2019, 10:32:49 PM
Quote from: 1miau
I consider KYC-Scams as an extremely shady move of a project to save costs when people don’t submit KYC or if the project is a scam to collect personal data and sell it to other scammers on the black market. Assuming that shitcoin ICOs don’t collect much funds right now, the personal data can be worth much more than the collected funds because the scammers can define which data they want to get.
I don’t know if TerraGreen is a scam but the way they put pressure on their bounty participants and refuse them a payment if they don’t pass KYC is at least scamming them.

I personally think that they should be considered to be scams, period. And they should be held to the same scrutiny as any other scam involving a blatant breach of contract.

Their interests are clearly in paying users as little funds as possible, as opposed to potentially upholding any sort of formal regulation that need to comply with. Otherwise, they'd be open to paying bounty participants in terms of BTC, or any fiat, since that would DEFINITELY not be a breach of any securities laws (from their perspective, they'd just be paying for a service with a currency).

But they're not open to that option, which also indirectly shows their own lack of trust within their own project.

I'm not sure why people don't demand funds to be escrowed in bounty campaigns the same way they demand sig campaign funds to be escrowed - even if the payment is in the token of the project.
1055  Economy / Economics / Re: Should exchanges ban margin trading and adopt Dividends/Interest based on time on: July 11, 2019, 11:48:54 AM
Quote
Are the cryptocurrency economists awake or the discipline is yet to come out of infancy?

Damn, those are strong words.



I think that your argument makes really close to zero sense, though. While banning margin trading would potentially decrease instabilities within the market caused by people trading on leverage, it also causes a concern as to the lack of short positions that keeps the checks and balances within an overheated market (watch khanacademy if you don't understand this concept), as well as the fact that you're essentially restricting what people can do with their funds with decreased liquidity overall. Why do that, when it comes down ultimately to virtually no improvement in anything?

Whether or not an exchange decides to go with a dividend sharing model, or pay interest to deposits, is entirely up to them. At this stage though, there is simply not enough liquidity and way too much credit risk within the BTC denominated credit market for exchanges to comfortably offer a guaranteed interest rate like a bank.
1056  Economy / Economics / Re: Northeast Asian messenger apps doing blockchain business on: July 11, 2019, 11:30:21 AM
country/Messenger/Blockchain Business

Japan  >    Line    > Linkchain

Korea  >   Kakao  > Klaytn(operated by Ground X)

China  >  WeChat >  Huh? Huh Huh

China already has a ton of these. The earliest that I could recall seeing from that particular market would be Bixin, which as far as I know is still operational.

I personally think that the concept of social payments is extremely intriguing, especially when you consider what WeChat has done with their payment platform, essentially forming a duopoly with Alipay within the Chinese payment remittance market.

However, I'm still not entirely sold on this concept of messenger/social payments being used in BTC. It's a very niche market, and on top of that, as a user you'd always have to be concerned regarding the security of your funds; since using these services will always result in a lack of control over your own Privkeys.
1057  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Scam Alert, Miha8 is a big scammer on: July 11, 2019, 11:14:50 AM
Beware of this tipster Mihaa8, he is a scammer. Paid for 100 picks. He sent 41 pick all where huge loses and he wouldn't refund the 59 pick which has not been sent yet. All he could do was to delete all chats on Telegram and wouldn't respond since.

Here is his thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2119744.msg51778155#msg51778155

My concern is that in your contract there were probably never any promises with the performance of his picks.

After all, the gambling industry is based on complete chance in some respects. And whilst tipsters try to swing these chances in their favor, they usually won't go out of their way to guarantee winnings which I assume is the case here.

So unless you have proof that within your agreement he had claimed something regarding the performance of his tips or something along the lines of that, all you can say at the moment is to warn people to stay away from him. Mods won't do anything about it, because that's not their job.
1058  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Coinbase on: July 10, 2019, 11:59:23 PM
Made 2 purchases on the drop last week. Of course it was the larger amount they doubled billed. The first two legit purchases actually bought my coins but the double transaction went to cash. They actually sent me an email asking to prove it. The funny thing about it is they put a 16 day hold on my deposits/coins in the first place for security reasons...... lol To me it looks like they are the issue. First time buying bitcoin and the last.

The hold isn't anything uncommon. They claim that it is a security feature, and has happened to many first time buyers (pretty sure there was a thread a while back regarding the same issue), but I feel like that they are really lacking in terms of communicating clearly with the user BEFORE they deposit any funds that there will be a security hold.

Otherwise, it's no different an exchange holding up your withdrawal, at the expense of the user. You don't know where your funds are being used, heck, it could be used to fill the liquidity gap in their operations for all you know.

I would strongly suggest you move away from using Coinbase, but not from trading bitcoin entirely. Don't let this one negative experience with a specific firm known for shitty customer service and constant holds/account suspensions drive you away from the wider market. Despite the worse rates, using P2P exchanges gives you a heck of a better experience overall, so you should consider that at well.

Oh how I miss Circle.  I've written that so many times it's not even funny.  They were the best place to buy bitcoin from and there hasn't been anything like them since they stopped dealing in bitcoin.

I second this for sure.
1059  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2019-07-10] Singapore to Exempt Bitcoin from Goods and Services Tax on: July 10, 2019, 11:50:27 PM
Several countries, such as Japan and Switzerland, are already taking action to boost the growth of their crypto industry. In contrast, U.S. tax authorities seem to be aiming to stifle the nascent crypto industry with stricter controls.

https://bitcoinist.com/singapore-to-exempt-bitcoin-from-goods-and-services-tax/

I remember Australia doing this several years back as well, alongside Japan. I believe that removal of these draconian tax standards is absolutely necessary if a country wants to move forward in terms of financial innovation.

Why do I call it draconian? Because essentially, a GST/VAT or whatever you call it is a double taxing. If you are treating BTC as a good, then shouldn't there be no capital gains tax charged? Yet, many countries used to and still have this double taxing standard, which essentially drives out legitimate individuals and businesses from participating in the regulated market.

Singapore's move is a good one. It's protecting the rights of the investors while boosting their status as a nation which welcomes FinTech, which can attract foreign bitcoin businesses to incorporate there to the benefit of themselves. This said though, this is not the only improvement that can be made on tax codes worldwide. Making clarity remains the most important aspect imo.
1060  Economy / Exchanges / Re: SwitchDex - decentralized exchange - one time flat fee on: July 10, 2019, 11:38:01 PM
* SwitchDex charges a .2% taker fee. There are no other platform fees.

* SwitchDex offers users a one time flat fee amount to remove this platform fee forever. From July 1st through July 31st this one time fee is $50. This fee will increase $10 monthly, and will top out at $100 in December 2019.

https://medium.com/@switchag/introducing-switchdex-ag-badc4be0722b

If you guys haven't tried switchdex, please do, it works really well and has a simple UI, the only issue is the lack of liquidity but that can be solved with your help!

A 0.2% taker fee is still a fee, you simply can't discount that and say that there is only a flat fee due to the lack of a maker fee; which is quite common in derivatives trading platforms anyways due to their need for lots of liquidity.

What is your affiliation with the SwitchDex platform anyways? Are you part of their team?

Another thing that I noticed was the fact that the design of their site is eerily similar to ForkDelta's, despite some minor cosmetic changes. I'm yet to be convinced that this offers any significant advantage over counterparts like ForkDelta or idex, both of whom seem to have more liquidity. I think that in order to generate that initial liquidity needed within the exchange to kickstart it, they might need to even consider subsidising maker orders for a while.
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