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1  Economy / Economics / Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend on: April 21, 2018, 11:32:22 PM
Hi, I'm struggling to reproduce / update these coefficients based on current data - can you please point me to an example / excel spreadsheet with formulas? Or is it an iterative approach?

Put the values into a spreadsheet as Date,Price

You're going to want to normalize your dates per rpietila's convention, where date is number of days since 2009-01-03. In Excel you can accomplish this by taking your column of dates, subtracting the function date(2009,01,03), and showing as numbers.

You're going to want to add a column that is the log base 10 of price. ( =log10() )

Do a least squares on [log base 10 of price] as a function of [number of days since 2009-01-03]. This is a built-in function in the Excel graphing features (there is an option to show you the exact function in y=mx+b form overlaid on the chart itself).

That linear function will now output the log of price.

You can calculate the linear model price by adding a column that's =10^(your least squares function). You could literally create a column where you start "=10^(" and paste in your least squares function, and replace the variable with a cell reference.
2  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Monetary scientist sees bitcoin price at $27k in four months time on: October 17, 2017, 09:44:07 AM
Monetary scientist??

Dingbat Trace Mayer just cherry-picked a bunch of prices that disproportionately represented the tops of bubbles, left out any prices from bear markets, calculated what multiplier these prices represented over the 200 day moving average that lead to those prices, and decided arbitrarily what multipliers were "normal" on the basis of this completely doctored sample.
3  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Are Gambling Campaigns Halal or Haram from Islamic point of View? on: September 10, 2017, 04:14:28 AM
This is actually a pretty decent question if you assume that he's not talking about doing any actual gambling himself.

It's a similar question to whether it's ok to own or work at a food establishment that involves serving pork.

You're better off talking to an Imam or Hadith scholar, because the Bitcoin part is much easier to explain to them, than the Islam part is to explain to people here. There are lots of reasonable grounds for nuance and making exceptions due to context, I'm not necessarily sure with respect to behaviors like gambling, etc., but definitely in terms of dietary law and the good intentions of the non-Muslim people you're dealing with in good faith.
4  Other / Meta / Re: What to do with the wall observer thread? on: July 01, 2017, 01:47:27 AM
Do nothing, it's fine as is. This thread evolved into what it is for a reason, to satisfy a want out there. If you pull the plug on this or make it more on-topic, there's not really anything left on bitcointalk for a large contingent of people who have nothing to do with scamcoin pumping.
5  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ANN] Bitcoin PoW Upgrade Initiative on: July 01, 2017, 01:42:58 AM
Any idea yet when we can start mining your new altcoin??
6  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [ANN] Bitcoin PoW Upgrade Initiative on: March 19, 2017, 05:17:07 PM
Interesting altcoin proposal, when can I mine it?

Any idea when Poloniex will list it?
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 17, 2017, 10:08:10 PM
At some point last year (maybe 2 years ago) my node was saturating my upload to the point where normal web browsing would not function smoothly. I had to reduce max connections (to around 20) in order to continue supporting the network. I guess a gimped node is better than none at all.

I'm not sure your concept of "gimped" makes any sense.

20 inbound connections is enough to broadcast to the entire network and then some in 3 hops.

Why is it "gimped" to not completely saturate your uplink 24/7 without any QoS measures in place?
8  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin transaction larger than 1 MB? on: February 10, 2017, 06:36:32 PM
There are two separate aspects of the system that would stop such a thing --

1) Transactions > 100 kb are considered non-standard by nodes. This isn't a consensus rule, but it's local policy where nodes will refuse to relay the transaction. In general you would have to manually submit your raw tx to a miner to get anything nonstandard mined, because the network will not propagate it for you. This is why it wouldn't end up in the mempool.

2) The 1MB blocksize cap will stop a miner from including it in a block, because it would be impossible for a miner to construct a candidate block that would be valid and includes your >1MB transaction.

There isn't really a way to answer how many inputs and outputs you would need, because for normal p2pkh tx's outputs are smaller than inputs (because you have to include signature data in the tx), but ballpark based on how many typical transactions fit in a block, it would be somewhere in the neighborhood of a few thousand, depending on the exact inputs and outputs.
9  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] [OCHO] Bitcoin Ocho aka The Future [OCHO] NOW MINING on: December 17, 2016, 07:17:25 AM
I'm forking to create Octal 8itcoin Ocho, the "altcoin", to support the self-evident superiority of the base 8 number system.

The sun also revolves around the earth, I support slavery, and the sovereign monarch of a country has the right to execute you for continuing to use decimal numbers after being warned otherwise.
10  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Black Arrow 28nm 100Ghash Bitcoin ASIC from $0.49/GH/s on: November 12, 2015, 03:18:13 PM
Those were the days eh? Asshole Sovu threatening to sue you over email for asking questions. Fun times.
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 30, 2015, 11:05:08 PM
Chinese exchanges agree the price rise has nothing to do with capital controls.

Dunno how they know this for sure but I guess they'll have a better idea than most.

They have to say this for political reasons, to ingratiate themselves to the government.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 16, 2015, 03:47:17 PM
I believe you are referencing PPC/ NuBits? UIAB(upon information and belief) Nubits is pegged/ tied to each one being worth $1

No, Brock Pierce's company was originally RealCoin and renamed Tether, which was originally built on Mastercoin which was renamed Omni.

Their model is not to create an artificial peg like Nubits or Bitassets, they hold actual dollars custodially and issue tokens. Legendary internet moron Trace Meyer once tried to convince them (on his podcast) to hold physical cash in a vault instead of using banks to do this.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 13, 2015, 10:18:42 PM
Yet another type (3) of attack may be a miner creating and solving a large bock to cause relay nodes and some clients to crash.   Rumor is that the 1 MB limit was introduced to prevent hypothetical type (3) attacks, or some similar one.    But there was no such attack during the 20 months or so in 2009 and 2010 that bitcoin operated with a 32 MB block size limit; and it is not clear whether such a rogue miner could do much damage except to himself.

There is also a cap on the number of sigops per block that more directly addresses this concern, but for some reason that seems to never get mentioned.
14  Other / Off-topic / Re: Lets play a game of Chess on: September 22, 2015, 11:23:59 PM
I think I'd rather see us survive as long as possible, maybe go for 1/2-1/2 by getting stalemated or pulling the fifty move rule.

Coming from a chess player, the best chance we have (should we lose a pawn) is either opposite colored bishop ending or rook ending. Keep your eyes peeled for possible queen trades.

Though an endgame will be difficult against an experienced player, if we pool our resources together and pick the best moves, it will eventually turn into a draw.

Both 50 move rule and stalemate are extremely rare at high level.

I did find one very recent example (from World Cup) where 50 move rule should have ended the game until Bruzon blundered at the end

I saved a game once at rated expert club level by claiming threefold repetition, but it was kind of not an obvious case (it was over the course of a lot of moves). The opponent was furious that I made the claim and even accused me of lying, until the TD came over and certified it during a clock stoppage.
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 22, 2015, 05:30:53 PM
Good morning Bitcoinland.

I see we had a little action last night but we seem to be coming back to $230 pretty consistently lately.

Must be driving the daytraders crazy. Long-term holders yawn.

What is actually our (long term hodling cult, inc.) target? 10 000? 100 000?? 1 000 000???

52 K


I had an anxiety dream where we hit $103k but all the exchanges were smashed with traffic and I couldn't take any profits in fiat.
16  Other / Off-topic / Re: Lets play a game of Chess on: September 21, 2015, 03:52:45 PM
Rac1 plz... since e4 is not good because our d3 pawn will be weak in the end. like the a5 pawn...
and Bc7 is just a useless move since unless you guys want to exchange it.

This is worth considering, because e4 gives the black knight on the 7th rank a potentially powerful future.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 21, 2015, 02:25:42 AM
does this look like a HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern to anyone here?

it looks like a self-similar fractal repetition of the Spring 2013 through past-summer of 2014, compressed over shorter timescale and over shorter amplitude. Exception being at the end it dropped relatively lower, but all the major features are there.
18  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: SCAM: Black Arrow LTD on: September 21, 2015, 02:19:34 AM
BA fucked themselves far more than their customers in the long run, because all we lost was some money, but these folks got a big windfall one-shot, but screwed themselves out of the life they could've had as a reputable respected company achieving great success. Now they have no personal incentive to achieve anything meaningful that will actually make themselves happy, and eventually the scammed money will run out, and they'll be back to square one having to do something even more fucked up to rake in more money. Whereas being an honest good actor could've potentially given them the kind of happy productive lives that the majority of their scammed customers probably have, despite having been fleeced.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 21, 2015, 02:14:20 AM

Usage only matters if people are holding. Take this, for example:

We have 100 BTC. There are 100 people interested. All 100 are buying and instantly selling their BTC.
1000 more people get interested. The market is constantly buying and selling, so they jump in as well.

This has no effect. If people HODL, this will change things. But that's just as easy to do with 1k people as it is with 1m.

The intermediary doing the conversions is a HODL'er.

They have to hold reserves in the asset pair in order to operate.
20  Other / Off-topic / Re: Lets play a game of Chess on: September 21, 2015, 02:04:26 AM
I am pretty sure Greenlion meant Rf1 not Rf2

You're correct.  My post had tons of explanation, yet somehow the typo is so hard to figure out! Smiley
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