(31 + 16,4) - 135,2 --> -87,8 --> 0,0000000000000000000000000037116
I didn't count the 51 bits of the so far searched space, but i think it is more or less the same ...
2 orders of magnitude... because % 0.000000000000000000000000003711 0.000000000000000000000000401596% <--- correct number (online) So to sum up - how is this number going to be bigger? - With more addresses with funds on them
- In time, as more space is searched
- With higher search speed
From what I can see, the number of addresses with funds has the most effect at the moment. Rico |
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my $prob24 = 1 / (2 ** ($space - $bits)); # 24h prob: 1/(effective search space - space searched)
effective search space - space searched = 2 ** ($space - $bits) ?? 2^135 - 2^51 = 2^84 ?? Oh... bug introduced by intertness (from the above division... 159 - log_bin($num_adr_funds)  I guess we'll add some more 0 now.  Rico |
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"The probability to find an address with funds on it within the next 24h is therefore 0.00000000112258370293%."
Hey Rico, can you share the formula that calculates this number?
And earlier today (when above number was smaller) I bragged in the German forum about this number: 0.00000000000000000045% (2016-09-17) 0.00000000000000200548% (2016-09-23) 0.00000000002801022860% (2017-03-28) 0.00000000108372998990% (2017-04-17) Is it only speed based, does it take the progression of the project into account? and what about reset / reissued blocks?
The formula is: my $space = 159 - log_bin($num_adr_funds);
my $keys_day = $srch_speed * 86400 * 1000000; # how many keys per day are searched
my $prob24 = 1 / (2 ** ($space - $bits)); # 24h prob: 1/(effective search space - space searched)
$prob24 *= $keys_day; # multiply with PK/24h rate (seconds * pk/s)
$prob24 *= 100; # * 100 (for %)
$bits is currently 51.32 The 159 is 2^159 keys to search, as this resolves to 2^160 addresses $srch_speed is the 24h Mkeys/s average you see, therefore * 10 6 * seconds in day So this number gets bigger in time (because we have covered search space) and/or if the pool gets faster. If the pool gets slower, this number may also become smaller. (search speed = 0 -> probability = 0) Reissued blocks are not relevant, because the "space searched" takes only PoW blocks into account. Promised and undelivered blocks do not count as searched space. Rico |
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Man Rico... was hast Du nur gegen Nullen... ? Ohne die wären doch die ganzen Einsen nix Wert!  Es ist wahr, ich habe eine Aversion gegen Nullen. Insbesondere führende Nullen. (*) Nullen im Gefolge kann ich tolerieren. Vor allem auf meinem Kontostand. edit: Alles schön und gut, aber man wird die Nullen irgendwie nicht los. -> https://lbc.cryptoguru.org/statsweil: bug edit2: Ja, ne oder doch nicht. Bis zur Klärung sich irgendeine Zahl ausdenken. Rico (*) Zweideutigkeiten sind rein absichtlich. |
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2e62d626197061e24c6e7981bfd7bbb085a2ec9d:c:priv:00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000098434c83ff001 + 0xfeb
b3b5e4f4740ee89cb0fc9ad729699054a8928592:c:priv:0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000009b4b6a3bff001 + 0xfbd
Hey whale! Leave some krill for the smaller fish.  (ok - a whale is not exactly a fish ... but hey) Rico |
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I think that OP was thinking on something like the currency exchanges you can see in airports or at the corner of the street:
human operator can sell you crypto for price1 and can buy crypto from you for price2.
Ah - ok. But then ... why not approach the existing market players? There is already infrastructure in place, the staff is there anyway... My advice: study the existing exchanges market, how it works, what they want, what you (the OP) could provide and how both parties could profit from it. => Make use of the already existing network and bring something to the table => profit! Actually if you could pull this off (IMHO not without the help of some BTC payment provider), it could actually be big. The booking.com of Bitcoin. Rico And the network is HUGE. This is only one player in one country just 2 of the 31 places they are present in: http://www.aaavaluty.cz/public/fotogalerie/images/smenarna-praha-prosek-003.jpeghttp://www.aaavaluty.cz/public/fotogalerie/images/smenarna-plzen-globus-4.jpgAnother one: http://www.cashpoint.cz/ Google spits out like 50 companies here |
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Is there a scope for real life crypto exchange? Where people could go and exchange some crypto currencies to others, would that actually work?
One downfall would be no anonymity but one plus point is the reliability, I mean you own your crypto's all the time and there is someone real that you know who would have to answer if something fishy happens.
What do you guys think?
Like https://localbitcoins.com/ ? Rico |
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I just submitted a ticket, because I honestly do not get withdrawal limits. I am way below daily and monthly limits. I have some bucks to withdraw (still way below the limits) And it tells me: Maximum withdrawal: 14.61 EUR Which is like 2 orders of magnitude below funds (and 3-4 orders of magnitude below limits)?  Srsly? So I take it Kraken has run out of money. Rico |
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vgl.
0.00000000000000000045% (17.9.2016)
0.00000000000000200548% (23.9.2016)
0.00000000002801022860% (28.3.2017)
0. 00000000108372998990% (12.4.2017) Und demnächst: Acht kleine NegNullen die waren noch geblieben, die eine schlug der Rico tot, da blieben nur noch sieben. Rico |
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My machines didnt found anything for about 1 day ... usually it was getting around 3/day ... today it didnt get anything You should just look which of your servers run 1.031 version. Update these. It's a pretty good indicator that these have an older BLF file. You do not need to look at the 1.067 Servers - if they get the block, they find it. If you want a list of the 1.031 IPs I can send it via PM. Rico |
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Da ich momentan die Privkeys der 30 SlarkBoy Bounties kenne, kann ich relativ schnell sehen, wer die in seinen Blöcken bekommt/bekommen hat. Unknownhostname hat zwar eine gewaltige Streitarmee, aber er hält seinen Flohzirkus nicht aktuell und so sind ihm schon 3 Bounties durch die Finger. Die letzte wieder wegen einer alten BLF. Ich sehe aber noch mehr. Zum Beispiel, dass einer von "cagrund"'s clients ca. 7 Sekunden (mag sich nach viel anhören - zu dem Zeitpunkt war aber nicht so viel los auf dem Server - folglich gab es auch keinen anderen User "dazwischen") zu spät gekommen ist um die Arbeit anzufragen, die diese Bounty beinhaltete. Da Carsten seine Clients aktuell hat, hätte er die auch gefunden. Hätte hätte Fahradkette - schon klar - aber ich finde es sehr interessant mal im Nachhinein forensisch untersuchen zu können wie nah manch einer "am Glück" vorbeischrammt. Frage ist nur: Will man das überhaupt wissen?  Rico |
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That would be the moment I have to quit Didn't you want to tell us something?  |
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Wie sieht man ob man was gefunden hat
FOUND.txt Datei im LBC Verzeichnis. und ist es mit 3.6 Mkey/s überhaupt möglich etwas zu finden ?
Natürlich - ist nicht wie beim Mining. Ich betreibe noch einen kleinen 32bit Client als Referenz (100 Kkeys/s pro Kern) - auch der kann eine 100.000 BTC Adresse finden. Ist halt unwahrscheinlich. und wo sieht man die logs ?
Logs gibt es auf dem client keine. Nur auf dem Server. Und ist GPU schon für alle zugänglich ?
Nope. Aber ich habe bereits ein Konzept um den GPU-Nutzerkreis gerecht zu erweitern. Vorher noch 2-3 andere Dinge erledigen, dann wird das bekannt gemacht. Rico |
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24h Pool Performance: 2048.75 Mkeys/s I currently have 2129Mkeys the pool is slower than me :> You might want to look at the green line too. (1h avg: 2312 Mkeys/s) Although - yes - you provide 90% of the pool speed. With CPUs. It's insane. It's like almost 4000 CPU (modern) cores. Or the equivalent of 100 of my notebooks (with GPU). If I didn't know better I'd suspect you are testing some ASIC prototype. Rico |
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Edit Ahh er weiß es bereits Und mittlerweile kenne ich alle privaten Keys zu allen Bounties - auch Deine. So habe ich auch herausgefunden, dass zwei Bounties Unknownhostname durch die Finger geronnen sind - weil (schätze ich) alte BLF. Tja - veranstalten wir halt Ostern eine ensprechende LBC-Eiersuche (ich werde den Server die fraglichen Blöcke wieder ausspucken lassen). Rico |
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last address found 14 hours ago ... I guess someone else found something ..
In a gesture of trust, SlarkBoy gave me all the private keys to all the Bounties he planted. So I could find out, that the unclaimed bounty of https://blockchain.info/address/1L1TjHQQM75mLYVn9QoFuBvWN7rPPTaiowas in fact given in a block to one of your clients. It seems this client is running an old version of LBC and therefore I assume its BLF file was not up-to-date also. This client returned PoW for the block interval he should have found something. If you were not informed, either the hook-find is not working (unlikely) or outdated BLF (more likely). I will not tell the concrete client and block interval, just as a hint you might want to update all your clients (1.067 and current BLF) if you don't want some bounties to escape you. Sure, an older BLF will still see the 2014 dormant 10.000 BTC address you're looking after. I may reschedule the block(s) in question as the LBC easter egg hunt. Rico edit: Other than that, it seems we are finding everything we are supposed to find, although some people do not/cannot report their finds immediately. edit2: @unknownhostname same applies for the unclaimed bounty https://blockchain.info/address/17VAHtuREREixUm1ZqextyEt4VWNv86E5Z
old client...
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last address found 14 hours ago ... I guess someone else found something ..
Looks like RealDuke - he will handle it in a couple hours. |
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Keine Hetze bitte Ich habe den Fund heute morgen zwar gesehen, aber keine Zeit gehabt. War nach Dateidatum gegen 6.15Uhr Kannst Du so evtl mit den Logfiles eine Zuordnung sehen? Oh. Da steht was von RealDuke hat block xxx bekommen. Ich habe mal nachgesehen und das ist keine Bounty, sondern der da https://blockchain.info/de/address/bcadb700c24da04b17feb9aa9bd71e368a4b623cDu hast jetzt 2 Stunden die zu claimen. Aber hey - keine Hetze! . . . . . Nur Spaß. Da müsste ich ja Deine Blöcke um die Zeit herum durchsehen und da Du bereits mit 20 Mkeys/s GPU ackerst ist mir das zu mühsam. Warten wir wenn Du von der Arbeit heimkommst. Rico Ich sehe gerade da gibt es einen user "RaoulDuke" - bist nicht auch Du oder? |
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Unknownhostname wird max 29 finden, später mehr dazu *grins*
Ich ahne gar schröckliches. Welchen der bounty hash160 darf ich beobachten wie er sich leert? Rico |
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