Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[N12]

do you guys think we will go still below $300 

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[NotLambchop]

...
Or do you have a reason to dislike or fear Bitcoin?

Tsk. Tsk.  

It has been conclusively proven on this very forum that BTC dollar price is in no way representative of Bitcoin's success/wellbeing

[Tzupy]

it's looking less bearish that I would like.

You actually want it to go down?

Thinking realistically that it might go down is one thing but wanting it to go down is another.

Obviously you're more concerned about trading than about Bitcoin itself.

Or do you have a reason to dislike or fear Bitcoin?

Tsk. Tsk.  

My most probable scenario is still bearish, as long as the market won't be able to build the first sub-wave of wave 1.
To build it the market needs to reach at least 470$, preferably 520$, to ensure the correction that will follow will stop at or above 275$.
If we go up for a while it just takes longer. And Blitz posting funny skeletons won't change my mind, only sustained buying can.

[N12]

You guys realize people bought 30k BTC @300 on Bitstamp within 24h? To me, evidence is needed to tell that this support should fall, especially when we have had declining selling volume off 418 to 315, which represents a higher low that just shouldn't happen if the bearish momentum was there. This is in addition to the declining asks and rising bid sums.

I have been warning for over a month and harvested only insults and disbelief: that 5th of October was likely a mid term bottom (that much is clear now) and possibly even a long term bottom.

[Wary]

...
Ditto for the May/2014 bubble:  a jump from $450 to $600 was quite dramatic, but a jump from 800$ to 950$ would have been just noise.

Please stop referring to the May 2014 price rise as a "bubble". It is part of the deflation pattern of the November 2013 (mania phase of the) bubble.
IMO there are 2 reasons for the May 2014 uptrend (that I called bull trap): the PBoC stopped feeding bad news to the market, so the market lost some
downward momentum and the linear descending channel broke, which was inevitable at some point, otherwise price would have reached 0$ by now.

The third reason could be traders expecting next bubble (8-months were due in July) trying to front-run it.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

We should have an answer in a few days/weeks, when we exit this thing:

[Wandererfromthenorth]

The way I see it:  We don't see much real buying pressure in this market anymore (while there's plenty of potential selling pressure).
The only panic buying lately was the $275-$415 obvious bounce after the biggest flash crash yet during the dumps from $680.

The $275 was a pretty obvious local bottom: convergence of a bunch of important trend lines + previous bubble's peak + biggest flash crash yet.

If the weak buying pressure doesn't allow us to have real breakouts and real rallies, average joes and big whales (and god knows there are a lot of them) will panic and we will cut through previous support like a hot knife through butter.

...And there is all the time in the world for that.

[Tzupy]

...
Ditto for the May/2014 bubble:  a jump from $450 to $600 was quite dramatic, but a jump from 800$ to 950$ would have been just noise.

Please stop referring to the May 2014 price rise as a "bubble". It is part of the deflation pattern of the November 2013 (mania phase of the) bubble.
IMO there are 2 reasons for the May 2014 uptrend (that I called bull trap): the PBoC stopped feeding bad news to the market, so the market lost some
downward momentum and the linear descending channel broke, which was inevitable at some point, otherwise price would have reached 0$ by now.

The third reason could be traders expecting next bubble (8-months were due in July) trying to front-run it.

Yes, they thought THE bottom was in April (I said "no, just look at the volume") and that seemed a good time to buy and hold.
That's why the market wasn't willing to drop (I posted this in the Memespeculation), and a lot of time was wasted with low volume.



The 5th October bottom may have been THE bottom, the volume was there, but it happened faster than I expected, and is somewhat fishy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[paul2000]

it's looking less bearish that I would like.

You actually want it to go down?

Thinking realistically that it might go down is one thing but wanting it to go down is another.

Obviously you're more concerned about trading than about Bitcoin itself.

Or do you have a reason to dislike or fear Bitcoin?

Tsk. Tsk.  

+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1

[billyjoeallen]

The way I see it:  We don't see much real buying pressure in this market anymore (while there's plenty of potential selling pressure).
The only panic buying lately was the $275-$415 obvious bounce after the biggest flash crash yet during the dumps from $680.

The $275 was a pretty obvious local bottom: convergence of a bunch of important trend lines + previous bubble's peak + biggest flash crash yet.

If the weak buying pressure doesn't allow us to have real breakouts and real rallies, average joes and big whales (and god knows there are a lot of them) will panic and we will cut through previous support like a hot knife through butter.

...And there is all the time in the world for that.

There is a natural tendency for price to go up because stable prices make the network more valuable and when it becomes more valuable, then bitcoins become more valuable which makes the price go up until the instability in prices causes a pull-back.

A look at the order books shows growing support on Stamp and especially BFX. This support is slowly getting bigger and moving higher. I just know that I can always buy more coins if it goes down, but there are a finite amount of coins if this really is the bottom. upside potential trumps downside risk.

[Wary]

We should have an answer in a few days/weeks, when we exit this thing:

As oda.krell has recently pointer out, there are many ways to draw a line:



One of lines was recently crossed and ... nothing happened.

[N12]

You guys realize people bought 30k BTC @300 on Bitstamp within 24h? To me, evidence is needed to tell that this support should fall, especially when we have had declining selling volume off 418 to 315, which represents a higher low that just shouldn't happen if the bearish momentum was there. This is in addition to the declining asks and rising bid sums.

I have been warning for over a month and harvested only insults and disbelief: that 5th of October was likely a mid term bottom (that much is clear now) and possibly even a long term bottom.

I thought it was obvious to us the bearwhale just ate his own coins. No?

No, the ask was up for many hours, there were many buys and Bitstamp was much lower than other exchanges providing an arbitrage opportunity. It's highly unlikely most of it was bought by the seller himself.

[oda.krell]

[...]

Too bad that it makes the price nearly impossible to predict.  Lines on charts cannot tell whether Bitcoin will be the next TelexFree in Brazil, or whether the US government will change its mind and decide to ban it...

True.

But those "lines on charts" (not really, but technical tools, i.e. various functions of price and volume) tell you what price will likely be in an hour, with pretty good accuracy, in most states of the market. Up to 24 hours, with some good enough precision, usually. Up to a few days, with quite a bit of error. Up to two weeks, with a lot of error.

Not that different from the weather report when you think about it...

Today, maximum temperature in Rio de Janeiro was 21° Celsius, with an average humidity of about 5%. Brazilian geometrists nearing retirement suspect the latest economic development in Costa Rica was the main cause for this phenomenon. ^_^

[Wandererfromthenorth]

We should have an answer in a few days/weeks, when we exit this thing:

As oda.krell has recently pointer out, there are many ways to draw a line:



One of lines was recently crossed and ... nothing happened.

Do you refer to the one we just crossed? I wouldn't call that an important trend line. Not something I would have drawn, personally.

[oda.krell]

Stock trading is just gambling. Apparent skill at trading is an artifact of human brains seeing patterns in randomness that don't exist.

There's a lot of insightful stuff coming from you usually. I honestly can say, you're one of my favorite posters in here. So would you please do me the favor and educate yourself a bit more on this topic?

Starting point could maybe be

http://rfs.oxfordjournals.org/content/2/4/527.abstract

or alternatively

http://www.nber.org/papers/w20592

The latter amusingly was brought to my attention in a discussion about how the EMH effectively prevents market prediction a.k.a. technical analysis. The article actually says the opposite. It simply - and correctly - points out that significance levels in testing profitability of technical methods need to be adjusted to account for "non results".

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Stock trading is just gambling. Apparent skill at trading is an artifact of human brains seeing patterns in randomness that don't exist.

There's a lot of insightful stuff coming from you usually. I honestly can say, you're one of my favorite posters in here. So would you please do me the favor and educate yourself a bit more on this topic?

Starting point could maybe be

http://rfs.oxfordjournals.org/content/2/4/527.abstract

or alternatively

http://www.nber.org/papers/w20592

The latter amusingly was brought to my attention in a discussion about how the EMH effectively prevents market prediction a.k.a. technical analysis. The article actually says the opposite. It simply - and correctly - points out that significance levels in testing profitability of technical methods need to be adjusted to account for "non results".

It's simple really.

People don't know how trading or TA works, they try to trade, they lose money (or they never try it at all, speaking without first hand experience).

Their conclusion?

-I am not currently able to trade, I didn't apply myself as I should have, or maybe I simply don't know enough about it yet. I should educate myself more.
-Trading is gambling, TA doesn't work, it's all random (or insider trading).




Simple as that.

[oda.krell]

It's simple really.

People don't know how trading or TA works, they try to trade, they lose money (or they never try it at all, speaking without first hand experience).
Their conclusion?
-I am not currently able to trade, or I didn't apply myself as I should have.
-Trading is gambling, TA doesn't work, it's all random (or insider trading).




Simple as that.

Well, like I said: justus is usually a high quality poster... I remember reading several good posts by him in the 'gold collapsing' thread.

Which makes his really rather uninformed opinion on this topic all the more disappointing. I don't mind if randomnoob773 dismisses technical analysis as "voodoo". I'd prefer if a competent member of this community would put a bit more effort before forming convictions, on the other hand.

[JorgeStolfi]

Not that different from the weather report when you think about it...

Today, maximum temperature in Rio de Janeiro was 21° Celsius, with an average humidity of about 5%. Brazilian geometrists nearing retirement suspect the latest economic development in Costa Rica was the main cause for this phenomenon. ^_^

Indeed. Southern Brazil is just now feebly coming out of a bad dry spell, with all the dams that supply the São Paulo region already below their official "empty" level.  Allegedly is has to do with El Niño, a quasi-periodic oscillation of winds and ocean currents over the Southern Pacific.  Because of our drought, maize and soybean are up 10% at the Chicago commodities market.   

[lyth0s]

Bitcoin is something new and can easily dissapear again unlike things like gold. That's why only a complete fucking idiot would compare Bitcoin to gold.

You do realize that you just compared Bitcoin to gold and then proceeded to call yourself a complete fucking idiot, right?

That was some pure, 24 karat, comedy gold

thank you for catching that.

F*cking shrooms...