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121  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2021, 11:30:02 AM
You know what's weird?

Bitcointalk is blocked in China, but bitcoin.org isn't.

https://www.comparitech.com/privacy-security-tools/blockedinchina/

Kinda weird.

I checked github.com, also blocked, so anything related to Bitcoin development it seems.
122  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 09, 2021, 08:09:29 AM
EU thinking of banning PoW





Idiots, it's like asking for a ban on vaccines when a pandemic is taking off.

Luckily I don't think there is enough time for that proposal to become law before the Euro as a currency will reach hyperinflation, by that time the only thing saving the train wreck economy is Bitcoin.
123  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 08, 2021, 03:07:22 AM
https://hackaday.com/2021/07/07/hamster-trades-crypto-better-than-you/
124  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 07, 2021, 12:53:21 PM
[...]

The first Brit to get vaccinated
...
dead within six months.

The first Canadian to get vaccinated
...
dead within six months

These cases are just noise. Isolated cases. If my neighbor wins the National Lottery, it doesn't mean everyone will win. But that's what people see, and they go and gamble their money away.

Currently, there are more than 1,500,000,000 fully vaccinated people (more than 3,000,000,000 doses administered) worldwide. Even if there are 1000 deaths that are provably caused by the vaccines themselves and no other illnesses, this is still a near-zero mortality rate (0.000067% to be precise).

Problem is, out of the 1,500,000,000 vaccinations, the mass media will say nothing about the 1,499,999,000 people who are healthy and protected, but they will be screaming 27/4 about the 1000 deaths.

If all vaccinated people die 6 months after getting the vaccine, there will be nearly a billion deaths by the end of the year. Not a long way away. We'll see...

It's comically dramatic, and borderline dark satire when friends of the dead recommend vaccination as a final tribute.



Mainstream media should focus on getting facts across, but they always end up going for the drama.
125  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 05, 2021, 08:14:23 PM

Quote
20 Things I've Learned (Or Had Confirmed) About Humanity During The 'Pandemic' (THREAD):

1/ Most people would rather be in the majority, than be right.
2/ At least 20% of the population has strong authoritarian tendencies, which will emerge under the right conditions.
3/ Fear of death is only rivalled by the fear of social disapproval. The latter could be stronger.
4/ Propaganda is just as effective in the modern day as it was 100 years ago. Access to limitless information has not made the average person any wiser.
5/ Anything and everything can and will be politicised by the media, government, and those who trust them.
6/ Many politicians and large corporations will gladly sacrifice human lives if it is conducive to their political and financial aspirations.
7/ Most people believe the government acts in the best interests of the people. Even many who are vocal critics of the government.
8/ Once they have made up their mind, most people would rather to commit to being wrong, than admit they were wrong.
9/ Humans can be trained and conditioned quickly and relatively easily to significantly alter their behaviours - for better or worse.
10/ When sufficiently frightened, most people will not only accept authoritarianism, but demand it.
11/ People who are dismissed as 'conspiracy theorists' are often well researched and simply ahead of the mainstream narrative.
12/ Most people value safety and security more than freedom and liberty, even if said 'safety' is merely an illusion.
13/ Hedonic adaptation occurs in both directions, and once inertia sets in, it is difficult to get people back to 'normal'.
14/ A significant % of people thoroughly enjoy being subjugated.
15/ 'The Science' has evolved into a secular pseudo-religion for millions of people in the West. This religion has little to do with science itself.
16/ Most people care more about looking like they are doing the right thing, rather than actually doing the right thing.
17/ Politics, the media, science, and the healthcare industries are all corrupt, to varying degrees. Scientists and doctors can be bought as easily as politicians.
18/ If you make people comfortable enough, they will not revolt. You can keep millions docile as you strip their rights, by giving them money, food, and entertainment.
19/ Modern people are overly complacent and lack vigilance when it comes to defending their own freedoms from government overreach.
20/ It's easier to fool a person than to convince them that they have been fooled.
Bonus thought:

21/ Most people are fairly compassionate and have good intentions (this is good)

Here's hoping "21/" can carry the rest (1-20), with the help from Bitcoin we might just pull it off (I'm a sucker for happy endings).

 2/ it's much more than 20%

And 2/  tends to sit well with the far left and the far right.  I know plenty in both of those camps.

 They have strong wish to control people and to be the "boss"

Whether they are waving a rainbow flag or a USA flag or a BLM flag or a BlueLM flag.

Plus the fucking media loves the turn the pot.

If only people could step back from the extreme and meet at the middle, but ah that's a different world then this one.

Thus the reason why Libertarian-ism, the most sane compromise of all the political & social positions, has been stomped right into the ground and left for dead.

Good job, Deep State.

20/21 observations sadly are correct.
1/21 observations happily are correct.

You're not quite a complete cynic yet though, give it some time.

I look at this forum thread and see people from many different backgrounds, different countries, different opinions, and sometimes we argue a bit...Still, we share common ground, most of us want to see Bitcoin succeed... This gives me hope that "21/" will be enough common ground to take the whole world through this shit without apocalypse...
126  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 05, 2021, 06:15:12 PM

Quote
20 Things I've Learned (Or Had Confirmed) About Humanity During The 'Pandemic' (THREAD):

1/ Most people would rather be in the majority, than be right.
2/ At least 20% of the population has strong authoritarian tendencies, which will emerge under the right conditions.
3/ Fear of death is only rivalled by the fear of social disapproval. The latter could be stronger.
4/ Propaganda is just as effective in the modern day as it was 100 years ago. Access to limitless information has not made the average person any wiser.
5/ Anything and everything can and will be politicised by the media, government, and those who trust them.
6/ Many politicians and large corporations will gladly sacrifice human lives if it is conducive to their political and financial aspirations.
7/ Most people believe the government acts in the best interests of the people. Even many who are vocal critics of the government.
8/ Once they have made up their mind, most people would rather to commit to being wrong, than admit they were wrong.
9/ Humans can be trained and conditioned quickly and relatively easily to significantly alter their behaviours - for better or worse.
10/ When sufficiently frightened, most people will not only accept authoritarianism, but demand it.
11/ People who are dismissed as 'conspiracy theorists' are often well researched and simply ahead of the mainstream narrative.
12/ Most people value safety and security more than freedom and liberty, even if said 'safety' is merely an illusion.
13/ Hedonic adaptation occurs in both directions, and once inertia sets in, it is difficult to get people back to 'normal'.
14/ A significant % of people thoroughly enjoy being subjugated.
15/ 'The Science' has evolved into a secular pseudo-religion for millions of people in the West. This religion has little to do with science itself.
16/ Most people care more about looking like they are doing the right thing, rather than actually doing the right thing.
17/ Politics, the media, science, and the healthcare industries are all corrupt, to varying degrees. Scientists and doctors can be bought as easily as politicians.
18/ If you make people comfortable enough, they will not revolt. You can keep millions docile as you strip their rights, by giving them money, food, and entertainment.
19/ Modern people are overly complacent and lack vigilance when it comes to defending their own freedoms from government overreach.
20/ It's easier to fool a person than to convince them that they have been fooled.
Bonus thought:

21/ Most people are fairly compassionate and have good intentions (this is good)

Here's hoping "21/" can carry the rest (1-20), with the help from Bitcoin we might just pull it off (I'm a sucker for happy endings).
127  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 05, 2021, 02:34:33 PM

Hehe, you always make me smile. Looks a bit like a limp dick there, what gives? Wink
128  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 05, 2021, 07:41:40 AM


Quote
On Friday (02.07.2021) we launched an attack on MSP providers. More than a million systems were infected. If anyone wants to negotiate about universal decryptor – our price is 70 000 000$ in BTC and we will publish publicly decryptor that decrypts files of all victims, so everyone will be able to recover from attack in less than an hour. If you are interested in such deal – contact us using victims “readme” file instructions.

The PR is not great, but could potentially affect BTC rate if paid.

129  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 04, 2021, 11:27:24 AM
If you don't celebrate the 4th July just renounce your citizenship, you are not worthy of your country.

Does that include Native Americans and foreigners? Wink

Proudly considering myself a man without a country (took a long time to get there unfortunately).

Free country, do and think you what you want. Just my feelings on the subject.

To celebrate independence from Britain in 1776, I'll be enjoying a BBQ later with family.

Everyone have a great day including modrobert.

Thanks, you too, BBQ sounds great, best steak I had so far was in USA.
130  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 04, 2021, 10:27:10 AM
Well, as holder of an (empty) Binance account, I’m not happy receiving unsolicited reset password emails while learning that it is happening all over the board. Something is not right.

No keys, not your coins.

Good point, and should be a constant reminder.
131  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 04, 2021, 10:22:39 AM
If you don't celebrate the 4th July just renounce your citizenship, you are not worthy of your country.

Does that include Native Americans and foreigners? Wink

Proudly considering myself a man without a country (took a long time to get there unfortunately).
132  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 04, 2021, 08:52:09 AM
Lots of stories of people receiving an unsolicited password reset email from Binance. Could be a fluke but …  Roll Eyes

Where are they located this days?

Binance is located in Cayman Islands, although according to CIMA (Cayman Islands Monetary Authority) they are operating without a licence (not sure if that's true).

Anyone who has any coins sitting there at this stage is a moron.

No, I think most of us using Binance are doing it for the volume, one if the biggest exchanges (perhaps the biggest) out there, and they charge relatively low fees.

As mentioned in my previous post, regarding getting the MTGOX vibe, being big like Binance has consequences, competition wants them to fail, and that includes competition from traditional banking. The pattern is similar; warnings about legislation, domestic banning, smear campaign against company and owners. I'm being cautious, not condemning the exchange at this point.
133  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 04, 2021, 05:49:29 AM
So I have been watching what I can only assume is a Whale bot playing out in a wave stabilization scheme on the order books of my exchange of choice. It's been fascinating, exhilarating, revolting, scary as fuck, and any number of other adjectives and descriptive phrases...

His MO is that he chooses a time when the market is relatively stable in a sidewardly mood. He places 50 BTC buy order at say 34,501.01 and another 50 BTC Sell order at 34,999.99. In a low volume time on the exchange this creates a set of walls in a $500 range. He then sets a Sell order of 10 BTC at market (let's say $34,601.01) and immediately places a buy order at $34,549.99. Now what makes me think it's a bot and not just a high-roller daytrader is the fact that every order being filled is immediately followed by an order being placed. And if the price bounces off of the 50BTC walls, it ends up creating an additional set of 10BTC bouncing orders that follow the same $50 spread pattern simultaneously with the first. At first, my thought was "why would he be executing these buys and sells at just a $50 spread?" Bit then I did the math, and watched. Every pair of buys and sells gets him $500 profit. And over a period of time, the algorithm actually seems to capture the market causing a very smooth sideways motion with very little variances outside of the $50 ping pong ball bounce. Over a period of 2.5 hrs Thursday evening, I counted 56 trade pairs, and I'm quite certain I didn't catch them all. So if we round that out to 50 trades at $500 each, that's $25,000 profit in 2.5 hours!
(Not bad in most people's perception) So I was really marveling at this and thinking "Well, Damnit! The game is rigged! If you've got enough cheese to trap the mice, you can't lose!"
Of course, that immediately led to the thought, "As a freezer burned leftover popcorn shrimp, what chance do I have of EVER accumulating THAT kind of volume!?!"
And then tonight, I saw the Bot get toasted. (I know, it'll probably all work out in his favor in the end, but let me laugh for a minute!)
I noted that the market had started to really smooth out in a sidewardly motion with a very slight Downward lean, so I started skimming through the order book, and there it was, a Buy Order for 50BTC at $34,501.01. And as I watched, the Red Candle suddenly started growing, and it went from $34,545 quickly down to $34,501 and as I watched the 50BTC buy got chewed away in seconds and the price continued down to $34,443. At this point as I scan through the order book, there are 2 50 BTC Sell orders $450 apart, but the price is still $75 below the bottom one. King Daddy escaped from the trap and not sure the Whale is even paying attention to cancel the bottom order and try to get the price back into the walls. Obviously the bot was not designed with contingency to do so automatically. 😕😟☹😲😵


-Cope

I've noticed similar trading patterns, overall the BTC trading appears "artificial" on a large scale (compared to several years ago). However, a mistake I've done several times observing this is that sometimes one big whale turns out to be many traders after further analysis reacting in similar manner using the same software (potentially bots), also sharing mindset and info.


In other news, looks like the heat is turning up on Binance, getting the MTGOX vibe, so I moved the BTC back to wallet for now.
134  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 03, 2021, 01:47:27 PM
What? How is this how Cobra helping Bitcoin? Did he accept the defeat?
The court case was about Bitcoin Whitepapper not about the open source license software.





That's irritating (verified it on https://bitcoin.org), so this "loonie crank abusing UK copyright law" (title given by core dev laanwj) won another battle?

BTW: For Bitcoin Core the official site can be used instead: https://bitcoincore.org/
135  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 02, 2021, 08:15:43 PM
Before you can reach HODL status, you have to get to an adequate BTC accumulation level, which surely can take a decent amount of time for guys who are not already coming into BTC as already existing millionaires or some other variation of high net-worth individuals.

Yes, if I could rack status of "BTC spent" over the years, then it would blow holes in the competition, but my current holdings are microscopic in comparison. Still, it's enough at stake to get me emotional in an unprofessional way at times.

I understand that some guys like to describe some of their situations in kind of "baller" scenarios, but probably an assumption should be that not too many of us are already coming to this thread with an already existing baller status or even quasi-baller status.

No "baller" here, aspiring to be humble (work in progress). I focus on learning new things, knowledge is wealth to me, and trying to rack up some Bitcoin as well because it makes sense.

Even a guy or gal who comes here with an already existing investment portfolio of something like $100k, might well be well pressed to get to fuck you status in 15 years of BTC investing and accumulating because so many times mistakes can be made along the way, and really seems to be the exception rather than the rule for mistakes NOT to be made - even assuming that some of us might be willing to share some of the outlines of our mistakes, but not too many of us would be able to share the specifics of our mistakes- especially if sometimes they might rise to the level of something approaching mindrust's mistake, and we might want to be stubborn in public and even show more how difficult it can sometimes be to save peeps from their lil selfies.

Agreed, admitting mistakes is good. I once sold 100 BTC after solo mining two blocks in a month, we live and learn.

Here's a "night shot" of my mining rig at the time, before ASIC, during the GPU era.



The GPUs were running 24/7 at 102C (215.6F) for roughly a year (two AMD 6990 cards), sounded a bit like a jet plane on the runway.

Another mental mistake seems to be that almost everyone comes into bitcoin believing that they are "too late," so when any of us start to explain to the newbie that I believe that you should try to do x, y and z because I have found those to be amongst the best of strategies, including attempting to account for my various mistakes along the way.  Understandably, the newbie still might want to "improve upon" the shared system because he believes that there is some kind of rush for him to catch up or some other dumbass bullshit about bitcoin no longer having sufficient pumpamentals in order for the similar  x, y and z approach to work. .and gosh the truth of the matter still remains that even newbies coming into bitcoin have a very asymmetrical bet staring them in the face - and can relatively easily get caught up in some kind of an inferior practice rather than just figuring out their BTC accumulation targets and tailoring their BTC accumulation plan to involve various kinds of lump sum investing, DCA and buying on dips in order to make progress towards having a sufficiently assertive preparation for the possibility of UPpity, even though UPpity is not guaranteed in the short term or the long term, but merely has decent chances (likely better than anything else.. but whatever.. not guaranteed, for sure).

In any event, my point is that buying and accumulating BTC may well be a strategy that persists for a decently long period of time for a large number of us thread participants - even if some of us are further on the road than others in terms of reaching our BTC accumulation goals, whether that be 0.21BTC or some other amount that works for our lil selfies.

Yes, common mental block, and good advice, it's never too late for Bitcoin.
136  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 02, 2021, 06:35:10 AM
Say it one more time....(in S. Jackson's voice)  Cheesy

...even if it's a bit awkward to read in a pump thread.


who's pumping?

My mistake, "HODL thread" then? Reading negative statements about greed was the surprising part.
137  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2021, 10:30:44 PM
Well ... it would have been more optimistic to just say that... " this year we will have at least 6 months of ATH." ... and you wouldn't have been beating yourself so hard about it. Tongue .. Also... don't beat yourself too much about it. Tongue .. It's fine! THIS IS FINE!!! Cheesy Cheesy .... Sold at 55 < > 64K ... bought back at around 35K ... THIS IS FINE!!! Smiley  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

But I do feel that greed is a plague. You can't get enough of it. And you always want more. Sad Sad

Yes, greed is bad, ruins the world. I appreciate the candid reflection, even if it's a bit awkward to read in a pump thread.

I have no idea how long this miserable sideways action is going to be, but here's hoping it will get the FOMO Bitcoin adoption going, thinking of it as a red carpet price wise. My theory as mentioned before, when this train leaves the station it will be epic, as never seen before, taking us so high that everyone involved will question their sanity, and by the time doubters expect it to end in a bear market season, fiat inflation will continue to drive the price up through mass adoption.
138  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2021, 05:23:52 PM
Just read it’s the 100th Anniversary of the CCP today. Hopefully their influence on anything bitcoin related is nearly over.

Any way, here’s some HOPIUM -


@maxkeiser
The #Bitcoin   hash is undergoing a seismic, global redistribution along with a massive adoption increase and a big protocol upgrade.

The FOMO inflection point, once crossed, will catapult price to $220,000 in 2021
https://twitter.com/maxkeiser/status/1410636814671486976?s=21

FOMO inflection point <- exactly this! The critical moment when inflation becomes high enough to make huge masses of people worried and while looking for a fiat exit realizes Bitcoin is now the best option.

EDIT:

Since many people have resistance against Bitcoin due to mainstream propaganda, perhaps the best approach is to spread true information about inflation, the real figures, and potential hyperinflation (for dramatic effect, explain what a bank run is), the result will be the same, all roads lead to Bitcoin.
139  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2021, 04:35:31 PM
OK... I need y'all to talk me off the ledge.

My state attack paranoid theory along with the 139 minute block time this morning between 689300 and 689301 has me all would up thinking about reorgs etc.

_edit_

So I have been doing a little math (remember that I am a musician primarily... so math is a dark art for me), and putting aside things like the first few blocks and amazingly long times then, my figuring based on reasonable swings in hashrate (including the one we are in now) this type of gap should not happen more frequently than like 3+ halving Epochs.  I might have my figuring wrong, and some of it is on my head-napkin.  It could be even more EV rare than that.




Raise your hand's slowly cAPSLOCK and back away from the keyboard.  Tongue

Right.  I am definitely on heightened... umm heightened something.

But my antennas have served me well over the decades.  I have learned not to discount them.  Especially when they are receiving such an overwhelmingly strong signal. Smiley

Tough part is I usually have a bit of insight as to what the signal means. But I am not sure where we are headed.... I just seem to be picking up that we are in for a pretty wild ride.

You know how animals act funny before an earthquake, or trees turn their leaves up before a good rain?

My antennas are literally vibrating.

After central (China) mining went offline, and difficulty still haven't adjusted downwards fully, the time between each block will fluctuate a lot more than usual. Hashing a block SHA256 checksum with leading zeroes is a bit like lottery, the more lottery tickets you pull per second the better the odds are (higher hashrate), it is still possible to pull a lot lottery tickets in a row without winning. The difficulty in a couple of days is estimated to go down with roughly 27%. The difficulty adjusts every two weeks with the goal to generate one block every ten minutes on average.

I understand the block adjustment gizmotronics fairly well... But the 139 minute blocktime this morning was an anomaly deviation wise.

13 minuted blocks are one thing.  This was an order of magnitude over that...  Not necessarily significant.  But nice and spooky given the backdrop.

Yes, bad luck. I think security is fine, even at current hashrate still way over what is required, but confirmation time is up, mempool grows.
140  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 01, 2021, 02:57:53 PM
OK... I need y'all to talk me off the ledge.

My state attack paranoid theory along with the 139 minute block time this morning between 689300 and 689301 has me all would up thinking about reorgs etc.

_edit_

So I have been doing a little math (remember that I am a musician primarily... so math is a dark art for me), and putting aside things like the first few blocks and amazingly long times then, my figuring based on reasonable swings in hashrate (including the one we are in now) this type of gap should not happen more frequently than like 3+ halving Epochs.  I might have my figuring wrong, and some of it is on my head-napkin.  It could be even more EV rare than that.




Raise your hand's slowly cAPSLOCK and back away from the keyboard.  Tongue

Right.  I am definitely on heightened... umm heightened something.

But my antennas have served me well over the decades.  I have learned not to discount them.  Especially when they are receiving such an overwhelmingly strong signal. Smiley

Tough part is I usually have a bit of insight as to what the signal means. But I am not sure where we are headed.... I just seem to be picking up that we are in for a pretty wild ride.

You know how animals act funny before an earthquake, or trees turn their leaves up before a good rain?

My antennas are literally vibrating.

After central (China) mining went offline, and difficulty still haven't adjusted downwards fully, the time between each block will fluctuate a lot more than usual. Hashing a block SHA256 checksum with leading zeroes is a bit like lottery, the more lottery tickets you pull per second the better the odds are (higher hashrate), it is still possible to pull a lot lottery tickets in a row without winning. The difficulty in a couple of days is estimated to go down with roughly 27%. The difficulty adjusts every two weeks with the goal to generate one block every ten minutes on average.
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