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Bump.
Entertaining offers. If the offer is too low, I'll entertain you instead.
Edit: Offer needs to be greater than yochdog's 27 BTC.
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sigh
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's annual remarks at Jackson Hole WY...primary driver of today's market action
Take BTC and buy gold from Coinabul. Further stimulate the gold markets and simultaneously stimulate the Bitcoin economy. Win/Win. |
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Coinabul - "Not-so-buried treasure"
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It would be much much much cooler if Jalapeno's were worth 90btc.
That's what one of mine is worth to me, give or take. Do the math with a few ballpark figures. At only 2 months, strict ballpark figures suggest that 90 BTC is a bit high. Liberal ballpark figures suggest that 90 BTC is realistic. At 3-4 months, 90 BTC should look pretty damn good. How do you figure? Assuming that 1) difficulty only doubles and then stays steady, and 2) The block reward halving doesn't happen in this time frame it would still take four months to earn back 90BTC. Obviously the block reward halving will happen, and difficulty won't stay constant at 5M or so. This is how I figure: 1) First-day Jalapeno ASICS should arrive pre-reward drop. This makes every day mining pre-reward drop instantly about twice as valuable as day mining post-reward drop. 2) I am also from the US, so my order should arrive before international orders. This should help maximize profits in the first critical few days/weeks. 3) Consider what the difficulty will be during those first 2 months after the first ASICs are shipped versus the difficulty after 2 months. If the difficulty increases by a factor of 4, then mining during the first 2 months will be approximately 4 times as valuable. Couple this with the reward drop and any pre-reward drop mining will be 8 times as valuable. Of course, difficulty may increase by more or less than a factor of 4, but you can substitute any number you think is realistic. If one Jalapeno is about ~$150 USD, or about 14 BTC, then that means that asking 90 BTC is assuming that a first-day ordered Jalapeno is about 6.4 times more valuable than a Jalapeno ordered today. Will you make 6.4 times as many BTC with it in the first 2 months? Maybe. 4) Because the difficulty will only continue to go up, first-day ordered ASICs will only become more and more valuable relative to ASICs ordered today. This offer should become more appealing with time. |
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I bid 27 BTC
Noted, but no thanks. |
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It would be much much much cooler if Jalapeno's were worth 90btc.
That's what one of mine is worth to me, give or take. Do the math with a few ballpark figures. At only 2 months, strict ballpark figures suggest that 90 BTC is a bit high. Liberal ballpark figures suggest that 90 BTC is realistic. At 3-4 months, 90 BTC should look pretty damn good. |
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Hey everyone.
It's been over 2 months now since BFL's ASICs officially went on pre-order.
I am selling one (1) spot in line for a 1st-day-ordered Jalapeno from order #1769 (the first ASIC order was #1656). I paid immediately with Bitcoins as opposed to a bank transfer so that my place in the shipping line would be solidified quickly.
With every passing day, BFL receives more ASIC orders - orders that will inevitably drive up difficulty once shipped. This means that the very first ASIC orders will be more valuable in terms of mining-time:profit than ASICs ordered today, and this will become more and more true as time goes on.
Accordingly, I am looking for 90 BTC. I will consider other offers. I am in no rush to sell, and as time goes on, I presume the 90 BTC price tag will look more and more appealing.
If you buy, I will send the Jalapeno via overnight mail the day after I receive it from BFL so you can get it up and running ASAP for maximum profits in the first few weeks.
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Hey, 1 out of 4 ain't bad.
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Hell yeah, fcmatt  Congrats. |
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Um...what endgame? You mean the endgame for bitcoin? Are you 4 realz?
Let it fly down to $2 again. You know what will happen when it does? The same thing that happened when it hit $2 last time. And we're all going to make money.
Worst case scenario: Pirate dumps 300k more BTC and we'll shoot downward and profit like mad when it bounces back up and reascends.
Best case scenario: ^^
Neutral scenario: A healthy correction which is what is going on now. $15 was ridiculous. $8 is pretty, and RSI is indicating that we're oversold.
@ Bitlane: At least LTC is back up a bit. You should cash out some of those LTC you were holding. When BTC goes back up, LTC will go back down.
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BTC are oversold at the moment. It may fall further at which point it will become ridiculously oversold. When we hit $12 and beyond on the way up, BTC were ridiculously overbought. This 'crash' is nothing to worry about, but it's a slight wake-up call for those who think BTC price is ready for lift-off.
Remember: There was nothing outside of speculation to justify the rise to $15. This correction is healthy.
My prediction is come next week we're going to bounce hard. For those that are waiting for funds to arrive in their exchange accounts, there is a good incentive to prolong this drop so they can buy back in low.
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This is just a waste of bitcoins.. Most of them will get thrown away and wasted by people that don't understand what to do with them or think it's a scam etc. I think the best method of promotion would be promotion via media, like the video at www.weusecoins.com and www.screwbanks.net+1 5% (if you're lucky) of passersby will stop to look at your flyer. 25% of those 5% might care. 1% of those 25% of 5% will know what to do with a private key. My certainty of these statistics is at about an 80% confidence level, raising the absurdity of this idea by about 47%. But in all seriousness, while an idea like this would be cool for us, you're going to likely end up wasting Bitcoins and time. You'd be better off standing on the street handing out Casascius coins. -1 worst case people see this and think "what the hell is bitcoin" and move along. most likely they will not bother to redeem the PK, but they Might, and if they do they now have a mtgox account ( a big first step into becoming a bitcoiner ) Also it exposes them to paper wallets a must know in the bitcoin world. and if they dont redeem the PK... i will! so i wont lose any bitcoin from doing this if your right. short of running through a mall naked yelling "I love Bitcoin! ", this a cheep and effective way for raising awareness. I agree that's a worst case scenario. I'm just suggesting that handing someone a gift in person might be a better way of generating interest. I like the generosity of the idea though, and I'd like to hear the results. Try it. |
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This is just a waste of bitcoins.. Most of them will get thrown away and wasted by people that don't understand what to do with them or think it's a scam etc. I think the best method of promotion would be promotion via media, like the video at www.weusecoins.com and www.screwbanks.net+1 5% (if you're lucky) of passersby will stop to look at your flyer. 25% of those 5% might care. 1% of those 25% of 5% will know what to do with a private key. My certainty of these statistics is at about an 80% confidence level, raising the absurdity of this idea by about 47%. But in all seriousness, while an idea like this would be cool for us, you're going to likely end up wasting Bitcoins and time. You'd be better off standing on the street handing out Casascius coins. |
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Just to give you an idea, someone else had contacted me and paid me for an economics paper. He paid me 10 BTC (when the price was closer to $5).
The paper was 1100-1300 words excluding references (there were 15+ references).
It took me about 8 hours of work. Looking back, the price was fairly reasonable, though 15-20 BTC (~$75-$100 at the time) would have been preferable.
Good luck!!
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Hey guys, remember Flexcoin? http://flexcoin.com/I remembered about it today. I went to withdraw my account balances that were still there. It worked. Does anyone else still use this? I love the concept of the vanity account names that act as intra-systemic addresses. I sort of hoped I would have been hearing more about this by now. |
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I write to warn users that i have my suspicions about Coinabul. They have had my coins for an extraordinary amount of time and i have not received any shipments from them. Additionally, my correspondence with them via email has been rather uninformative. They blame the delay on general delays! I am not saying that this site is selectively scamming people but i wonder if they are planning to pack up with the coins and disappear. I would be pleased if some well known and time honoured users could come forward to dispel my concern.
In my experience with Coinabul, they have excellent customer service and I have always received my orders. About the delays -- yes, this happened for my orders as well. The longest was about 3 weeks, the shortest about 9 days. Coinabul appears to be honest when they say that they regularly experience delays beyond their control. If you placed an order and paid for it, then I wouldn't worry -- you'll get it. While it sometimes takes a while for them to ship, they're great on price and customer service and they've always responded to my PMs and/or emails. Highly recommended by me. |
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Nice, but I was looking to pay around 1 BTC + shipping. Thanks anyway!
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Hey, I'm looking for a chess clock. It needs to be in perfect working condition, and I would prefer minimal signs of wear.
Who has one? I will pay in BTC.
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Not even close because the difficulty will adjust upward so fast. Sure IF you coudl produce 1.97 BTC a day for 2 months then it would be worth a lot but you won't.
We need to make some assumptions but here goes:
a) 100TH of gear will be sold in first 2 months.
b) there are 2016 blocks between retargets. we will assume half that for the next retarget after the day1 orders arrive.
d) difficulty when product ships will be same as now, reward will be 50 BTC for ~8 weeks then fall to 25 BTC.
e) 30TH will ship on day1, and then 20 TH per week for the next two weeks, dropping to +10TH per week after that.
f) all existing mining hardware will shutdown but there will be a lag of roughly 2 retargets.
g) a product orders today will ship 8 weeks after a day1 product.
A Jalapeno (JP) would prodce 1.97 BTC the first 24 hours. However the network hashing power will quadruple (10TH to 40TH). This means the 1008 blocks to retarget won't take a week it will take ~2 days.
So:
Day 1 - 2.0 BTC
Day 2 - 2.0 BTC RETARGET (difficulty increases to a factor of 4x)
Day 3 - 0.5 BTC
Day 4 - 0.5 BTC
Day 5 - 0.5 BTC
Day 6 - 0.5 BTC
Day 7 - 0.5 BTC
Week 1 SUM 5*0.5 + 2*2 = 6.5 BTC
Now the next retarget will hit in ~ 10 days not 14 because another 20TH will be added.
So days 8 to 12 earn another 0.5 BTC = 2 BTC. Since day 0 = 8.5 BTC
Retarget brings dificulty to 6x current. JP reward drops to 0.3 BTC. Retarget comes early again in 10 days.
So days 23 to 32 earn 0.3 BTC ea = 3 BTC total. Since day 0 = 11.5 BTC
Now the next retarget is flat in this scenario. 10TH new mining gear has been shipped but all existing gear has shutdown.
Note: this isn't intended to be accurate but more to illustrate that eventually some new ASICS will just be soaking up existing hashing power. It will take roughly 14 days to next retarget. Day 42. Another 14 days @ 0.3 BTC ea = 4.2 BTC total. Since day 0 = 15.7 BTC
Now network hashing rate and difficult is still rising but slower. 10 new TH added to existing 60TH raising difficulty to 7x current.
JP now earns ~0.28 BTC per day. 12 days will next retarget. Day 54. Another 12 days @ 0.28 BTC ea = 3.4 BTC. Since day 0 = 19.1 BTC.
Another 10TH added. 80TH total. Difficulty 8x current. JP earns only 0.25 BTC per day. Dau 66. Another 12 days @ 0.25 BTC ea = 4 BTC. Since day 0 = 22.1 BTC
So despite earning 2 BTC in the first day you don't earn 120 BTC in the first two months you earn more like 20 BTC. Paying 100 BTC for a JP would be a poor deal. The sub 100 BTC in the first month wouldn't pay it off and if network stabilizes around 100TH one can expect to earn only 0.2 BTC per day. That would put break even @ 500 days.
Yes, I realize all this. But, there are some things that you are neglecting. 1) You completely neglect the block reward drop. Well, you mention it in your assumptions, but other than that it's neglected. Assuming first-day ASIC orders do indeed arrive at the end of October, you're looking at a solid month of pre-reward profits. ASICs ordered today will arrive after the reward drop. This makes every day of mining pre-reward-drop twice as valuable right off the bat. 2) The current network hashrate is NOT 10 T/H, but closer to 15 T/H. This makes a large difference in your assumptions. Thus, an increase in hashrate to 45 T/H is not a fourfold increase but rather a threefold increase. This means that after the first difficulty adjustment (15TH - 45TH), profits would be ~ .66 BTC per day and not .5 BTC. This has a cumulative effect on the rewards for each subsequent difficulty adjustment. 3) There will be a lag in shipping times, and thus a lag in network hashrate increases. Orders made in the USA will arrive before international orders, and this will hold true for each shipment. As a result, difficulty adjustments will not be fourfold (really threefold) in 2 days as you suggest, but may take as long as a week (if not more) for this adjustment to occur. If this is the case, your 6.5 BTC estimate in the first week could very well be 14 BTC. This lag in difficulty adjustment will also hold true for all subsequent shipments -- it will simply take longer for some orders have an effect on the network. In conjunction with point 2 above, this will also have a cumulative effect on profits. 4) Let's assume that, as you said, 100 TH is ordered in the first 2 months. This would mean that after 2 months, the difficulty would be ~7.5 times higher than the current difficulty. This means that ASICs ordered today would be mining approximately .13 BTC per day when they are received (this is taking into account the reward drop). Let's assume that I didn't make points 1,2, and 3 above and that your estimate of 20 BTC in the first 2 months is accurate. That would mean in the first 2 months of mining, ASICS ordered today would earn ~7.8 BTC, and that isn't taking into account subsequent difficulty adjustments. This already means that the mining time of first-day ASICS is (20/7.  about 2.56 times as valuable. Now, if you take into account points 1,2,and 3 as I stated above, I think that somewhere closer to 40-60 BTC will be mined with a first-day Jalapeno in the first 2 months, making mining time with first-day ASICS about 5.12-7.69 more valuable. |
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