Yes.

Yes.

Theoretically, SBD is tied to the USD, and that means that it's a theoretical hedging device - a virtual exit of crypto. We'll see how well that plays out. For the first time in a long time it's actually worth $1.00. I liked that. BitUSD is another, similar type vehicle that I'll be using as I further hedge moving forward.

With so many other possibilities with much greater appreciation potential, ETH was deemed to be much too close to "fair value" to make it interesting, and there are other issues there too. ZEC was a little rich at the time when I started this, but would have been a good selection. It's performed pretty much in line with my higher cap spec picks. Perhaps on the next round.  


Add: I forgot to answer your question about why so much LTC. It's simple really: I think the spread between the theoretical value of LTC relative to BTC is so big that LCT will not only outperform in an uptrend, but that it will also hold up much better in a downtrend. For all the hedging I shall ever do, LTC will never go below 25%. At least not as long as it doesn't blow itself up - and I say that because doing something stupid and shooting itself in the foot is probably the biggest long term risk LTC has.

Proceeds from today's sales into SBD.


https://i.imgur.com/wPPpGNb.jpg


I know it's early, and we'll get strength to sell into, but a 10% portfolio hedge is not excessive by any means. I might miss out on some profits, but capital preservation is one of my highest priorities. Like they say, I'd rather be out wishing I was in, than in wishing I was out.  

Now, let's see if we can get a bounce one of these days.  


LTC still bullish BTW.

Edit: GRS, NLG, PIVX, STEEM and XEM are still bullish too, but most are hanging on by a hair.

I've got the rest officially under bear market rules now.

BTC still alive as well - 2370 is my first short term bullish above, bearish below, level to keep an eye on.

Could be a while. 

This "model" portfolio is hypothetical. My real portfolio isn't. This "model" portfolio is a mirror image of my real portfolio in terms of coins held and their weightings (the only difference is dollar value and one different coin that my real portfolio has and one that it doesn't have - XMG and XEM respectively). So essentially, the answer is "no", it isn't hypothetical - it's very real!

It's nasty out there. Sold 20% of my LTC. Obligatory rebalancing. Starting to get defensive.


https://i.imgur.com/T2iGv3P.jpg

When I have the chance,  I will post the screenshot. 1/2 remaining GRS postion sold.


https://i.imgur.com/IV8jGki.jpg

New hires and more, including very appropriate priorities.

"In addition to its commitment to new hires, the Litecoin Foundation recently unveiled a development roadmap that includes technical changes made possible by the SegWit activation.

Surprisingly, though, this isn't necessarily Lee's primary focus. He argued that the "most important thing" is increasing litecoin adoption among exchanges, merchants and users.

"I want to make sure that litecoin is traded everywhere first, then make a convincing case why companies and merchants should use litecoin when they need fast and cheap payments," he said."

Full article here: http://www.coindesk.com/life-coinbase-can-charlie-lee-keep-litecoins-revival-alive/

The Dutch are big on crypto in general. Look at any coin's node map and you'll see the same thing. France and Germany are also in the same boat, just as your stats show. Lot's of mining pools too. It's a huge crypto hot spot, and this is not to take anything away from Eastern Europe which is not far behind. Big investors too: just compare crypto price action with the open of European stock markets and you'll see incredible correlations happening, very similar to what happens at 9:30am EST in the US. The interesting thing is that with so much talk about Asia, I've yet to see the same correlations there. But, yeah, that part of Europe is heavy into crypto.

I think you'll be handsomely rewarded.


What impresses me the most about MCO, what inspires the most confidence, are the people behind the project, their experience and past record of success.

Kris Marszalek, CEO
Serial Entrepreneur in Southeast Asia Internet industry, 2x from $0 to $100m in revenue and 2 exits. CEO at Ensogo, Founder at BEECRAZY (sold for US$21mm to iBuy Group in 2013).

Rafael Melo, CFO
15 years’ experience in finance, deep understanding of risk, compliance and Mobile Payments ecosystem in Asia. Led fundraising efforts as CFO at ASX-listed Ensogo, securing strategic investment from VIPSHOP (NYSE:VIPS) and raising over A$50m from blue chip institutions like Fidelity, Goldman Sachs and BlackRock.

Gary Or, CTO
Hacker, Product Designer, Entrepreneur, 9 years of full stack engineering experience (RoR, Elixir, Golang), Keen interest in Machine Learning and AI.

Bobby Bao, Managing Director
Extensive experience in investment banking, corporate development, investor relations. Head of Corp. Development at Ensogo, investment banker at China Renaissance (华兴), Deloitte, Merill Lynch. While at China Renaissance he worked on landmark deals, including merger of Didi and Kuaidi (now Didi Chuxing) as well as Strategic Corporate Development Projects for JD.com (Nasdaq: JD)

Advisory Board

Brent Diehl, Payments
MD of Alliance Payment Solutions. Formerly Prepaid Partner Solutions at VISA®

Timothy Hitchens, Technology
Head of Solution Architects, Worldwide Public Sector - APJ at Amazon Web Services

Ransu Salovaara, Blockchain
CEO of TokenMarket: Digital asset marketplace for investors & growth companies. Creator of BitcoinETI, the first bitcoin-backed exchange traded instrument.

Ohad Hecht, Marketing
CEO at Emarsys, global leader in B2C Marketing Automation

Bradley Riss, Fintech
Built Adyen’s payment business in Southeast Asia

Dimitri Tsamados, Talent Acquisition
Founder & Partner at DTCA, Partner at Eric Salmon Asia

Blockchain Advisors

Pablo Yabo
Smart Contracts Audit - CoinFabrik

Mikko Ohtamaa
Smart Contracts Development - TokenMarket


That's one hell of a roster!

PIVX, STEEM, XEM and MYR were slightly green, but it wasn't enough to cancel out the losses seen in the rest of the speculatives, so, yeah, the portfolio managed a green week thanks mainly to LTC. You could also say that the individual losses of my picks were nominal in general, but the early and late week ramps were clearly due to LTC. Otherwise it would have been another sideways week.

Week 6 Update


https://i.imgur.com/JiS6N8k.jpg

Things are getting much more selective. Both BTC and LTC are clearly the leaders to the upside, and I'd be remiss to not include DASH, which is also performing relatively well (though not part of my portfolio).

Here's BTC's chart analysis:


https://i.imgur.com/v6zb97r.jpg

I think there's still more upside to come in this cycle, but the "all boats rise in a rising tide" phenomenon is over in my opinion, and it will be much more of a "stock picker" market up into an intermediate term top . . . if the leaders continue to rise. I'm currently very close to bear market rules with a few of the issues I own which basically means forgetting about new highs on those issues and selling rallies. The coming days and weeks will give me more clarity on that.

Also, given the facts that I have to be around a computer at the time of the trade to get a screen shot, that I can't always do that, and that there is going to be more "automatic" selling and buying with bids and asks, I'm not going to be posting screen shots anymore. It's also not necessary as my credibility on this subject has been more than established. Of course I will post the trades though. Last night, after the technical end of day July 8, I got off 1/3 of my remaining NXT on the rebound at .00004780. I'll also post the portfolio weighting each week.


Current portfolio holdings percentage distribution:

LTC 60.3%
GRS 7.3%
NLG 5.9%
STEEM 5.5%
SYS 5.1%
BTS 4.2%
PIVX 2.9%
NXT 2.8% *
MYR 2.4%
MCO 1.9%
XEM 1.7%

* Last night's sale won't be reflected until tomorrow.

Yes, I consider IBM to be one of the Blue Chip stalwarts that still has good appreciation potential. Like 3M, or P&G. Productive assets that will continue to appreciate given the underlying macroeconomics in play. My opinion, of course.

And, as you alluded to, I think it's also been the most resilient to the selling pressure we've been seeing these last few weeks. The more speculative have been crushed, but the speculative that are still very undervalued like GRS, PIVX and NLG have also held up rather well.

The fundamental valuation ratio I'm working with is the total eventual supply each coin has relative to BTC. For example, GRS will ultimately issue 105 million coins, 5 times BTC, so that gives us a 5:1 ratio and means that, if successful long term, GRS should be worth .20000000 BTC. It's currently trading at .00006165, around 3,244 times undervalued. GRS has also held up very well during this selling spree.

Doing the same with LTC, you find that it should be trading above $600. That's a huge spread between current and fair value that, if you believe LTC will survive long term, will eventually be closed, and, as such, also has much more relative room to climb. I would expect LTC to perform better in downturns as well - if BTC crashed to 1,200 right now, LTC's theoretical value would still be $300+, almost 6 times its current price!

You can find a ton of information on coinmarketcap.com along with links to all the most important websites surrounding each coin. It takes time to get up to speed, but it'll be worth it. You'll need to be flexible and nimble, and I highly recommend a diversified portfolio strategy like the one I'm employing here. Look at the results to date: the speculative issues have done much worse than expected, while the more conservative elements like LTC and BTC (BTC because it is the underlying instrument that the rest are valued in) have contributed the lion's share of the gains. There have been no “home runs”. Now that could change tomorrow, and since I don't have a crystal ball, I'll stay with the diversified portfolio and best practice management . . . as best I can.

Glad you like the thread!

BTC certainly ends up acting like a bank, especially if you’re trading more actively – with that you’ve [almost] always got something in BTC. It’s the most conservative of all crypto to be sure, but instead of comparing it to bonds, I’d compare it more with the likes of what IBM is to stocks.

LTC is a good middle ground crypto as you say. Good appreciation potential, and the same security, if not even better. There’s no reason why LTC shouldn’t trade at its 4:1 ratio with BTC . . . which would be $633 at today’s BTC price. And soon LTC will not only be just as solid on the safe storage side of things, but it will also be much more useful in a real world setting.

To be honest, I don’t understand Ripple. It’s so outside of what is decentralized and widely distributed that it has me scratching my head. Seriously, it’s a different beast that I haven’t studied, and I don’t like getting involved in things I don’t understand. I think valuation will be a more a function of business success though, as an intermediary, than as a cryptocurrency.

With respect to your last question, as BTC relates to fiat, it is DEFINITELY a GREAT hedge long term! That is what the basic crypto ethos is all about: hedging against fiat debasement (which we know is guaranteed for the foreseeable future). I would have just as much crypto in my traditional portfolio as gold, if I had gold (my gold is real estate and productive assets), but seriously, in terms of what your “liquid” portfolio looks like, crypto is a perfect fit - with its current phenomenal appreciation potential, even better than gold - for that fiat hedge.

There’s a nice info-graphic putting current crypto to total world money supply into perspective here: https://steemit.com/crypto/@cryptographic/crypto-boom-part-1-keeping-perspective

It’s a proven product that works that has gained wide scale acceptance and that is still in its infancy, a hedge that also serves as one of the best long term speculative investments we’ve ever seen, that’s what crypto is IMHO.

It's quite clearly spelt out in the white paper. Those with questions, why not specify what it is in the white paper you're questioning or are not exactly sure about?

https://mona.co/monaco-whitepaper.pdf

Nice to see you over here with something so positive. You've got me excited!

I agree about the smart money, but I don't think they're going to take it down.

 


I knew I was missing something, and in this case is was a digit worth an entire year!  

Thanks pokemail4me, for "shilling".

This is the kind of collaboration I'm hoping for in this thread BTW - there's just so much to research and understand that it's hard for any one person to to it alone, especially part-time. Working together we all do better!

Thanks again.


Edit: the remaining NXT in the portfolio is "free" since 2/3 was already sold at a 3.5X gain. Amazingly, from a TA standpoint, it's still looking remarkable strong. Any explanation for that?

Remember everyone that the appreciation potentials mentioned in the OP were based on prices at that time. Some things have risen substantially, and others not so substantially.




I don’t see national limits for anything that’s good, and other than that perceived limitation, I don’t see too many negatives for NLG – just the opposite. MCO is one hell of a project that could surprise a lot of people. The business model is proven and they’ve got EVERYTHING in place already. If MCO flops, it’ll be one of the biggest surprises I’ve ever had.

As for keeping things for the long run, I think that’s only for things like P&G and 3M. When I mentioned long term on the OP, I put it into quotation marks for a reason: long term here is intermediate term anywhere else. That having been said, I do try to work with prospects that have good long term possibilities - in case I become a bagholder - but I’ll be doing my very best to trade in and out of those same issues, basically getting overweight or underweight but probably never completely liquidating, although I do reserve the right to do so, which could include trips to fiat and back.




Stick around. Maybe we can both learn from each other.




My understanding is that you'll get as many Ardor tokens as the average of your NXT balance during those three months. Ardor for the price of Nxt now, and I get to keep ½ of my original Nxt too! Correct me if I’m wrong. https://www.nxter.org/the-nxt-2-0-token-distribution/ Not sure though; when things look too good to be true, they probably are.



Again, I’m employing “short term” trading and portfolio management principles here in a long[er] term effort to make a lot of money – as richak said, we’re still in the very early stages. If you can find some good winners and ride the waves, I think you should do very well in crypto. Even the long term buy and hold and forget about it until you’re retired approach should pay off extremely well, provided you get a majority of winners, of course. The key in all respects is finding the winners, and then everyone adapts their participation to their risk tolerance and financial resource levels. What I’m doing is very “middle of the road” and could be drawn upon by everyone from the most speculative to the most conservative I think.

Thanks everyone for your comments - I read them all and if I didn't respond to yours, it's because it was answered in another reply or in general - your participation is greatly appreciated!