When considering top market cap criteria, it's good to consider just how unreliable that can be as risk mitigator. Just look at those two tring to break into the top 10. Bytecoin is a major scam coin and DigiByte a hopeful longshot at best. Not all that gliters is gold. It's also not too coincidental that they are pumped in tandem. This is the wild wild west.


https://i.imgur.com/hV0ycmn.jpg

Courtesy of http://coinmarketcap.com/

Okay, so there's DGB at number 12 position for capitalization, right behind Bytecoin at 11. Bytecoin is a major scam coin to help set context and maintain perspective. You can't make this shit up. If I'd told you this was going to happen 2 weeks ago, you'd have laughed me out of the room. This is crypto at it's very best. You do know you're the mark, right?


https://i.imgur.com/hV0ycmn.jpg

Courtesy of http://coinmarketcap.com/

That office is Tofugear's office in Hong Kong.

You can learn more about them here (they do have some synergy with DGB, or should I say hopeful synergy, but they are not blockchain).

https://www.tofugear.com/

And it's all here on this thread. If you're buying DGB without researching at least this thread, then you'll get what you deserve, no doubt.

Totally unprepared, again.

It's the classic example of "look ma', no hands!"  

The dev "team" is one person, Jared Tate.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jaredctate/

6-9 months.

Edit: the only question is whether it'll lead to another launch or a dead cat bounce.

That's worse than Yahoo Answers. 

Nothing has been said about the portfolio be locked in. In fact, there's already been a swap out. As with all portfolio management there will also be balancing when necessary, but not in the same degree since the idea here is to let profits run as much as possible within the portfolio itself. Perhaps my choice of words has been somewhat confusing given that portfolio automatically conjures up ideas about conservative money management. Perhaps the term "basket" would be a better choice of words as what I'm doing here is more like working with a basket of favorites that can change over time and where basic portfolio management best practice is also applied to the degree to which it's possible and appropriate with the overall goal. Let's call it HR's Private Crypto Fund.  

Yeah. Thanks for advertising (even though it's not exactly on topic . . . as was just succinctly reiterated in the post just prior). It's good to know you're there.

And if we can leave it at that, it'll be greatly appreciated. TIA

You're absolutely correct, on all points, and, yes, it's just amazing. DigiByte is one of those examples that I sold at a 20x that is now approaching a 100x. That hurts when you leave so much money on the table, but, frankly, I don't believe in the coin's fundamentals. They consistently fail to execute and I just couldn't answer my "bag holder" question in the afirmative beyond a price that now looks cheap. That's happened more than once, and it will continue to happen, but the more solid the underlying project is from a real long term viability basis, the longer I hope to be able to ride. That's where the compromise between "longshot betting" and "reasonable speculation" comes in and why I'm looking for the most undervalued of the best that can be believed in.

There's also lots to be said about trading, like litaf, gabmen and others have mentioned, if you've got the time to be in front of the monitor 24/7. Jokes aside, unless you're making a living from your trading, you've probably got a real job and a real life, and that makes trading difficult. On the other hand, what I'm doing here, in essence, really is trading, just on a longer term time frame. Investing is something that I think of as taking place over years, and this is far from that. As I've mentioned in another closely related thread I started ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1925617.0 ), I think we're working with progressive cycles that are tending towards fair value, and that there will be waves of buying and price appreciation that will happen to different survivors at different times, and, in that sense, this current portfolio really represents a short to intermediate term "trade" that has maximum and minimum possible targets, that could also very likely be repeated again in the future, and that brings us back to the more reasonable 10 fold followed by another 10 fold, rinse and repeat scenario - trading, just on a longer term time frame with slightly larger trading objectives to match.

Very good point, and one that I've given a great deal of thought to. My thinking is that with 2nd and 3rd generation crypto heading in the direction of application based blockchain activity with all its inherent vulnerabilities, people will "rediscover" the value of the original design when it comes to choosing a truly safe place to store value, and that with all the problems BTC is facing in terms of scaling and functionality, LTC will be the cryptocurrency to satisfy that need. I could be wrong though. What's to keep any other of the 1st generation cryptos from taking that spot? The game's really wide open, and the fast mover will be the winner in my opinion. Again, LTC's dev team has shown themselves to be very astute in the past, and I'm betting they will capitalize once again. If they are quick to implement key SegWit functionality and turn LTC into a real means of exchange payment vehicle as well as the secure storage vehicle it already is, then they have a very good chance of putting Litecoin alongside Bitcoin in terms of real value, again, in my opinion, and recognizing that I could very well be wrong.

In any event, I see the leveraging of SegWit and the rapid implementation of Lightning Network as THE key for Litecoin success. If that can be done quickly, LTC could easily trade in the $500 range, but, again, the question is whether the devs are willing and capable of doing so, because the technology is there to immediately consolidate itself as the de facto secure storage and p2p payment cryptocurrency of the future.

I plan on buying in the 150-200 area in about 6-9 months.

Great article giving very nice insight into the potential of Lightning Network. Problem is though that the Devs of SegWit activated coins aren't acting on their opportunity and other technologies are already filling the niche first.

Why this foot dragging and lack of action on the part of the SegWit activated devs? I imagine that it's most likely a combination of converging factors from being overwhelmed, to incorrectly thinking that time is not of the essence, to perhaps even possibly thinking that they have a monopoly on the holy grail. AFAIK they aren't even talking to each other about network integration - either that or they're keeping it top secret. What's it been? 60 days now since activation and we've heard nothing? 60 days in crypto is like 60 weeks in the rest of the world - you wake up to find out that nobody needs you anymore because your technology, even though it's good, is not as good as what's already been put to work. They've got to get on it now. I've got a jump start idea that would guarantee Lightning Network almost instant and universal acceptance that I've offered to the SegWit Devs risk free, and haven't even received a reply. I've no idea what's going through their heads.  

Thanks for posting the link!

My miners are producing the same net USD equivalent now as before.

Great posts regarding reasonable expectations BTW.

Cheers

I always ask myself, “would I be willing to become a bag holder with this?” and if the answer is no, then I don’t go there.


“Completely protected”? Until you cash out, of course, since you have to go through STEEM to do that.

For all the great looking technicals in the world (I was introduced to STEEM by the technicals, by the way), you couldn’t get me to stick with something tending to zero.

And it looks like key people are cashing out too.

Agree with finding coins in their infancy and will check out those two ideas. Thanks.

All STEEM proceeds now rolled into GRS and NLG. Both are a bit higher risk, not exactly blue chip, but basically satisfy the majority of criteria, and, most importantly are fundamentally sound. We'll see. I'll also be looking at all the suggestions that have been made. Thanks for all of those!

New 5% position for Gulden.


https://i.imgur.com/KWCfRH8.jpg

Incorporation of GRS to the portfolio with a 5% position.


https://i.imgur.com/2i2IBYF.jpg

Dumped STEEM.

In spite of being a TA trend-momentum favorite, I don't like what I'm seeing in other, more "fundamental" places,
like here for example: https://steemdown.com/


https://i.imgur.com/eYqH7mk.jpg


Rolled proceeds directly into LTC.


https://i.imgur.com/C0D441V.jpg


I'll take safe than sorry any day of the week.

In a nutshell, I try to find first class projects that are still undervalued and that have very good appreciation prospects. Firstly, that means eliminating everything that is scam “tainted” whether it be true or perceived. For example, all unexplained pre-mines or instamines are immediately discarded. Unproven or doubtful technology is also reason for elimination from consideration – anything that’s been hacked, for example, is for someone else. I’m interested in security above all, and that means documented proven tech. Another thing that I don’t like are one-trick-ponies, or single dev coins, as it were – even where there’s a couple of devs, I think twice because, if it looks like a mom and pop basement operation where you find someone who’s learning as they go with cut and paste coding, it probably is.

Secondly, I look for market confirmation (though sometimes the process is reversed and the market shows me something I hadn’t seen before). The market is never wrong (even when it’s irrational), and being the collective reflection of all participants’ opinions regarding value, it provides me with valuable information. For example, where is the incoming fiat being targeted and with what intensity? Money flow analysis can tell you a great deal. When you can divide markets into emotional and professional trading categories, you gain even more insight into which issues the market thinks are truly long term value and which are possible short term fads based on a lot of hopeful thinking.

Lastly, the potential portfolio candidate has to present good prospects from a technical analysis perspective for potential future revaluation. There also has to be very good risk/reward for me to get involved. Even if they present long term fundamental value, overextended cryptos have to be removed from the selection process, at least until they come back to the mean and present a risk/reward opportunity more in line with what I seek, and only once the technicals have restructured and also support a buy.

It’s not easy to find opportunities that meet all those requirements. The list of “blue chips” is short to begin with, and many, like BTC, are already getting pricy, if not downright overvalued. Some of the supposed “best of the best” don’t meet any of my criteria. I’ll give you two examples: 1) Ethereum’s turing complete code is far from proven safe - as in secure money storage - and in fact has been hacked, has a huge pre-mine set aside for founders, has a very emotional market suggesting that the smart money isn’t too interested, and is extremely overextended; 2) Dash is tainted by a huge controversial instamine that is claimed to have been an accident that no-one is worried about, employs technology that is far from proven, has a very emotional market (that is further worsened by a cultish community making it in my opinion crypto’s high end DOGE) again suggesting smart money avoidance, and is also extremely overdone to the upside. The idea is to find the complete opposites of these two examples and get positioned before the rest of the world gets hysterical about them.

I want “blue chip” crypto with solid dev teams and organizations that are made up of professionals who have working results to show for their efforts, with money flow volumetric market confirmation, and that are still way undervalued and have great prospects for short to intermediate term revaluation.

Portfolio Trend-Momentum Analysis


STEEM is perhaps my favorite with its strong price reaction to the golden cross and bullish alignment of moving averages on a daily time frame. Strong volume based momentum that looks steady even while clearly being in a corrective phase.




Nxt also got a similar shot in the arm with its own golden cross and bullish moving average alignment – the 50dma looks to be providing critical support and money flow is ticking up. Got a little overdone, but not lethal.




BitShares got a bit away from the mean, but has come back in and the overall configuration is positive.




Syscoin has been correcting by drifting higher for the past month. Very positive and sustainable looking chart to me.




Litecoin has been correcting for a while now without the money flow going oversold (and turning back up now) and the MACD in zero line territory. The moving averages are in bullish alignment which has obviously had a positive effect on price. Consolidating with very a positive volume pattern I see something that is setup to explode higher.




NEM has followed a similar stair stepping pattern (no parabolic curves) riding up the bullish configured moving averages in stainable fashion currently working off excesses.




PIVX is an early cycle performer and, as such, should be an interesting watch. The price action around the upsloping moving averages is very encouraging to see. The Williams %R upthrust combined with bullish buy signals on the MACD are confirmation of a very possible resumption to the upside. This would also be a good sign for Alts in general - not so good for BTC though.  




All positive looking charts from a trend-momentum standpoint, especially when put alongside something fairly overextended like DigiByte (who is mentioned here not only as an example of something having got a bit ahead of itself, but also as a potential buy candidate at lower levels).




And what does BTC look like through these bifocals? I’ll leave it up to you.



Looks extremely bullish to me. Short term it could be bounded by 1750 and 2350 though.