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One article for JJG and anyone else interested in 200 day moving averages:

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/23/bitcoins-200-day-average-is-approaching-a-record-high-heres-why-it-matters/?_gl=1*1l849lo*_up*MQ..*_ga*NjA4ODI3ODUuMTcxMzkwMjgwNg..*_ga_VM3STRYVN8*MTcxMzkwMjgwNS4xLjAuMTcxMzkwMjgwNS4wLjAuMTAxNjQ0Nzk4Mg..

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My only complaint re this interesting and eventful evening are the ridiculous fees I've been seeing since Block 840000.  Most of them have median fees over 1000 sats/vbyte (data from mempool.space), some well over 2000!  Fees are over 1000 for the next three blocks.  Median for next one as of now: 1800 ($118.00 for a simple tx).

Looks like it's going to take a while before I can buy some more.

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Two stories caught my attention over the past day.

Google makes it easier to track public addresses being used, apparently they can capture IP addresses too.  Looks like we have to use VPNs if we want privacy.

https://bitbo.news/google-btc-address-search/

kitco.com (major gold site, many gold sellers use their price info to price buys & sales to the public) has an article from Bitcoin player Brian Dixon.  Brian is looking at prices from $250,000 to perhaps over $1,000,000.  And perhaps it won't take long to get there...:

https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-27/forget-100k-bitcoin-headed-1-million-institutional-money-pours-otc-capital

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Today's spike looks related to a short squeeze:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-erupts-higher-epic-futures-short-squeeze

OK, my point was made, I will comply with your request from here on.

My larger point is that the ride will be very bumpy ahead.  Buckle up.

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"Dark Brandon" is scaring people.  People who save money are fleeing into BTC and gold.  Both have hit ATHs today, right after his SOTU.

Silver and ammo next?

Or whatever drug cocktail he was on last night...

Great perspective on recent BTC buying & selling.

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How do I spell confidence?

BoughtTFD just this afternoon.

Me three.  I told a cousin, who seemed very interested at the time, to buy at $7000.

Re parity, we are almost at 1.000BTC equaling a kilo of gold.  bitbo.io currently shows 1 BTC = 0.99 kg Au.

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More good news, Saylor's MicroStrategy to buy $600 million more BTC:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/microstrategy-to-raise-600-million-to-buy-more-bitcoin

MSTR at $1334, up almost 100% in 2024.

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JJG

OK, I think we're almost done here for the moment.

In 2021 I had a larger investment in BTC, that's one big reason it worked out so well.  Also, I knew more about how to play the game.  This time, alas, I have a smaller amount, so will not clean up bigly unless there is a huge spike.  But, it's all good.

Speaking of huge spikes, howzabout 1000x?  "Bag" says could be, it's the network...:

https://bagholder.substack.com/p/monopoly

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JJG at #661629

That was about as comprehensive a reply I have ever received for anything I have ever written in my life (inc. the Spanish 4 paper I wrote in high school that Miss Breiner raked me over the coals on...).

*   *   *

I have nothing against spreadsheets, but they're not my style re BTC buying and selling.  Sure, they can provide plausible number scenarios, but I just use a calculator and notes on paper.  Just as a by-the-by, most of my formal planning is done re the big things (heirs).

Yes, nicely perceived that my plan is basically in my head, leaving open the possibilities of course corrections.  One thing I have learned: we are all different!  Also very perceptive of you to offer up the observation that it, my buying and selling tactics, might be (at least in part) in my subconscious...  What are you, some kinda combat psychologist?

When it comes to selling, both in 2017 and 2021 I sold some past the ATHs. I would attribute A LOT of luck to this process of selling roughly the same amounts before and after the peaks.  I was very lucky to have sold off a sliver on the very day of THE ATH, but not at the tippy-top peak of that day.  


Re the whole topic of "not having made enough (exact optimal amount perhaps better expressed???) money" in BTC and/or retained enough to have better "alpha", well, yeah, had I had more perfect vision of the future, sure I would have bought more here, sold less there...  [I noted you explicitly made the same point]  But who can do that optimally all the time?  Pas de moi.  I made enough to really have made me very happy re 2021, that was a nice amount, even if it really didn't change anything fundamental re my family finances.  So, no condo in Dubai, at least yet...


You made some interesting other points that I have not run into before:

-- Optionality, a concept I have run into before, but very valid re BTC gains, even for small amounts invested (1% - 2%).  Right now, I/we (I gave my grandsons some) we are running at some 3% of net wealth in BTC.  I'd have to check my numbers, but something on the order of 3%, maybe a bit more, was what I held just before my selling in 2021.  I want to think more about your comments on this.

-- That was an interesting observation as well re increasing our %-share as the BTC network strengthens, and we see more new & bigger entrants.  This promises to be fascinating, I guess in the months and years to come.  5% - 25% is more than I want to devote, though, as I am not 100% convinced that BTC is going to work out as most (inc. me) think.

-- I also like your idea (new to me) of studying and using the 200 day moving average in your thinking.  Even if it's just for perspective.  I would like to see how the pretty clear patterns of BTC 4-year cycle daily pricing (to date anyway) fit in with the moving average...  

-- I also remember from 2021 that I started off my selling-by-slice by selling slices that, at first, were perhaps too large...  Which of course meant that my smaller, later slices were less lucrative at the higher prices.  This relates to your comment about running out too soon of BTC to sell should the price run up to VERY HIGH LEVELS (say, over $150,000).  I will certainly keep that in mind not to sell off much of my BTC for too low.


Excellent thought provoking comments, thank you!



EDIT: Yep, 10-4 rgr that about NO "yield producing products", NO sh*tcoins, NO leverage.  Big mistakes are costly and demoralizing.

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JJG, #661544 just above

Yikes!  My planning is much more basic than the work you've done in your referenced thread.  Yet the way I sold in prior spikes (small frequent slices as the bull markets were in full swing and soon after the ATHs) was similar enough (though unstructured) to your spreadsheet suggestions.  I do not plan in such detail for a few reasons:

1)  at this point in my retired life I tire of spreadsheets
2)  things change so fast that I will make decisions, sometimes, on the fly
3)  I have never had enough BTC to attain one of your FU status amounts, but that's fine with me as my wife and I are retired OK, you may remember me re 1% - 2% of net...
4)  my sales-in-slices strategy worked well in 2017 and (especially) 2021
5)  I might not have the discipline to follow a plan...

I certainly concede that my somewhat relative success has been in at least part due to luck.  But, as I considered in the past with my own views of probabilities of price movements both uppity and downnity and our financial situation and rather plebian knowledge of Bitcoinistan, I was just fine with the gains I made.  Which have not been game-changers, but that's OK.  Especially 2021...

My game plan is likely to be "rather 2021-ish."  Sell off small slices every once in a while, maybe once or twice a week, once we reach some $80k.  In 2021, I started selling at $30k, and sold off slices throughout the double spike.  I then started buying again at some $40k - $45K (too soon, oops).  My last purchase was just this Monday, I haven't made up my mind when I'll buy again.  My buying more-or-less conforms to the spirit of DCA even if sloppier, but, hey it works without overly taxing my brain.

That's interesting, guys.  Gemini took me first as I was trying to onboard them & Coinbase back in 2021.  When they took me on, I just let my application with Coinbase go, didn't finish the process with them.

Wires in and out have been quick and painless for me as well.  On the other hand, I don't trade much...

If /when we get to 80k, sure, I'll sell a tiny slice.  Just like I sold slices in 2021 and 2017.  It doesn't hurt to take some profits.  At 90k, another slice.  DCA in reverse if you will.

I'm one of those guys who's never sure about what will happen in the future...  I'll take some of the money and run (like before).

But, I'll never sell all of my BTC.  Never.

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Just checked Gemini exchange.  Still working (that is, got to my account OK, balance is correct), but I did not try to sell anything.  80k is my first sell point.

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^^^ Nice one (661471), Dude!  Back down to $60k and change.  Buying opportunity...


edited because things are moving very fast

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BTFD soon.

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cygan always brightens my day with The Little Hodler.  So much truthiness, brings a smile.

Speaking of smiles, The Dude sure gets around!  We are hoping to get to Europe late this Spring.  Go BTC go!  Go ahead BTC,make my day...

vokain, welcome back!


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@philipma1957, *maybe* I'll start selling a little bit at $80k, but that's just because I am always uncertain.  But, I'm not selling much at below $100,000.  The Hal Finney predictions of $1M+ make more sense now.

Even so, no one knows how the future will go.  I will sell bits & pieces of BTC as the prices goes up bigly, but I will never sell it all.  Just like the last cycle when BTC hit its all time highs.