...

I was rereading part of Taleb's book Antifragile last night, and realized that Bitcoin would be a perfect investment for a Taleb-style Barbell Strategy (for investment holdings, BTC part of the high-risk-high-return end).  Rather than repeat what I wrote, here is the thread I started:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5279992.msg55315946#msg55315946

...

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (famous for popularizing the term "Black Swan" and writing a book about it) wrote a book a few years later titled Antifragile.  "Antifragile" things are those that get stronger after being put under stress (oversimplifying).  I have seen gold mentioned as an antifragile investment, in that it will likely perform better as other investments fail, yet gold is considered a "Tier 1" reserve holding by the BIS for banks and Central Banks.

His barbell idea is illustrated below (hey, I'm not an artist).  He suggests hodling 90% or so in very safe investments (I include gold as very safe, YMMV), the other 10% in high-risk-high-return speculations like low priced options that would likely expire worthless but come in BIG TIME once in a while.  He also writes that many other investments (eg, stocks, real estate) have higher risks than most people (inc. investments "professionals") believe...


 III                            III
 III============III
 III                            III

cash                           options
treasuries                   BTC
gold?                          gold?

~90%                        ~10%

I just bought more Bitcoin from LibertyX, the total premium I paid was about 1.78%, which of course is very low (and included "fast" miner fee).  BTC receipt and one confirmation arrived in less than 30 minutes.

So, yes, as yimfinity wrote, the promotion is still on.  I believe I saw that the promotion is on through October 31, perhaps yimfinity will confirm.

*   *   *

I don't know how difficult the logistics would be, but LibertyX achieve a near market-share domination (assuming customers are OK with the KYC) by doing the below two things:

1)  Keep that 0% conversion fee (recall that they apparently sell at BTC "Offer Price"), or at least charge a very low fee so as to attract more customers.

2)  Find a way to allow customers to "cash out" at a low cost as well.

The above two things would be a nearly complete Bitcoin Ecosystem, very useful for Americans who would use BTC more (I would).  Imagine for those who travel to other US cities, less risk of robberies or losing a wallet full of cash...

...

If they make it easy (albeit with KYC, etc.) to "spend" BTC via debit cards or whatever, that is huge news.

Especially for me if/when I want to cash some in.

Release the Kraken Bank!  They do this right, I'll go with 'em.

...

nullius: that is always the way I have felt about BTC and gold.

Biodom: indeed good & interesting news.

Sr. Dude: you bet!


My Sendable Merit pile is going down...  

https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards/status/1306055964211191814?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1306055964211191814%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconservativetreehouse.com%2F2020%2F09%2F15%2Fwow-chinese-virologist-dr-li-meng-yan-blows-whistle-on-china-manufacturing-covid-19%2F

 

...

MASSIVE news if is true and shakes out as Rickards writes in a tweet tonight.  He is extremely well-connected and a best selling author on finance.

https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards/status/1306055964211191814?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1306055964211191814%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconservativetreehouse.com%2F2020%2F09%2F15%2Fwow-chinese-virologist-dr-li-meng-yan-blows-whistle-on-china-manufacturing-covid-19%2F

That $1.2 tn would go a long way.  China would also get some of that KARMA back at 'em.

...

Thank you all for your replies!   


o_e_l_e_o and Karartma1

I mix "most" of the BTC I get, though usually not right away (if I buy $300 worth with my cell phone for example).  And for the same reasons mentioned: making it harder for criminals to track finances and for better general privacy.  I do hope that others, preferably many others, will mix their BTC as well to make more BTC equal to others...

witcher-sense and Karartma1

Thanks as well for the links provided.  I now have some reading (likely too advanced for me, still...).

*   *   *

General comment.  I sense, have no proof of course, that all this "analysis", KYC/AML, PofFunds, etc. is all aimed at making BTC less useful.  And by the "usual suspects" (.gov and/or banks).

Since converting to BTC costs money (always more than 1% in my experience, often MUCH higher (BTC ATMs)), it's beginning to look like BTC will not be a game-changer for privacy.  If the exchanges get overly picky about sources of BTC and make it harder to cash out, then that is bad news AFAIC.

Missed all of that.  Maybe I should be coming back more often?  It's hard to keep all the personalities straight, especially in a complex subject as BTC as well as on a big site like this.

...

Recently I have wondered about BTC fungibility as mixed BTC and even BTC that has been "ricochetef" a few times retains "taint", meaning, IMO, that there may be some problems when an owner wished to turn BTC into FIAT$, say, at an exchange.  Some exchanges apparently do not like heavily tainted BTC it seems...

LeGaulois provided an example of a wallet from another thread, showing origins of some of the BTC in a wallet:



I myself have wallets that are "dirtier" than his, I mix most of the coins I get, but those newly received coins can come from anywhere.


My question is:

How do "they" mark or tag coins that come from gambling sites, dark markets, mixers, etc?

I can understand that stolen BTC could be "tagged" fairly easily (at least until mixed?), but who does that?  Who has that authority? 

Mmm.  Ignore List.

Dabs and Peter R kindly helped me a lot when I was (even more of) a beginner than now on a couple of topics of interest to me back in the day.  Those two would be on my "Merit List" were that to exist.

I don't have anyone on Ignore, erm, 'cause I might learn something.

#methree

Go Bitcoin Go!

...

IMO we will have to wait for an economic cycle or two more before we can have confidence in comparing gold and BTC, especially as a Store of Value.  I just do not think we have enough experience in seeing enough history re BTC.  Just as we have NO DEEP UNDERSTANDING of COVID-19, we need more time.

Perhaps in three - four years some enterprising analyst will do a good study on this, I could certainly see a valuable study examining a correlation coefficient of prices of Au and BTC.

...

https://www.coindesk.com/wasabi-wallet-coinjoin-design

A snip, the article is a bit technical:

The new protocol is a technical casserole that combines Pedersen commitments and keyed-verification anonymous credentials (KVAC), a feature used for group messaging on the encrypted chat app Signal.

If WabiSabi works in practice as it does in theory, then users will be able to spend any amount, irrespective of the value spent by their peers – an improvement over the current design which demands equal value payouts to mixing participants.

Wasabi co-founder and lead researcher Adam Ficsor told CoinDesk this new design could unlock new CoinJoin use cases, like “CoinSwapping with CoinJoins and open[ing] lightning channels with CoinJoins.”

Hillebrand continued to highlight that this implementation will not be limited to self-spends, where users can only send a CoinJoin transaction to themselves, like under the current model. Rather, WabiSabi would allow them to make payments in a CoinJoin transaction to another user as well. This process would operate in the background if it runs the way Wasabi envisions it, opening up the possibility to make “every spend a CoinJoin.”

It looks like it will take some time to make and test the changes. 

[As I recall, blockchain.info's wallets used to offer a coinjoin service for any amount, blockchain's service was discontinued over two years ago]

The changes are meant to address the limit on what what amounts can be mixed (~0.1 BTC) as well as better hide leakages, presumably discussed here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5270199.0

...

igzolt

That would explain why I paid so little (less than 2%) when I bought in early August (after their earlier July 31 end date for the deal).  Thanks for the update.


CardCoins

I'll try to take a look at your service as well.  Looks interesting.

Yeah, I too well remember reading that book around 1997 or so.  Full of wonderful ideas of what might happen, and much of it already has.  It is too bad that to become a Sovereign Individual requires a lot more money than even serious BTC HODLers will likely be able to ever have.

I think that +/- 1000BTC (plus whatever other assets you might have) might be enough, as long as one's appetites are not too high...  But 1000BTC is way more than I will ever have, by orders of magnitude.  *Sigh*

The one thing (that I can remember) that has NOT come to pass that the authors predicted is a territorial jurisdiction that would welcome such Individuals by offering low taxes and other welcoming features for investment capital.

It seems that Socialism and hating the rich still seems to hold such power all over the world.  Pity.

...

"Dirty" gold and "dirty" BTC share some interesting characteristics, they are somewhat less fungible than clean Au and BTC, reference and just started a thread:

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-gold-staying-clean

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5268653.0

I contend that BTC is somewhat in danger of losing its fungibility, hope I'm wrong...


EDIT: The article suggests that applies more at wholesale levels (institutional investors, etc.)

...

I have been wondering over the past few months about the fungibility of Bitcoin now that blockchain analysis tools from Chainalysis and others.  As an example, it might be hard to get FIAT$ from some exchanges with BTC with "taint" from mixers or traces back to use in dark markets.  

If the exchanges crack down on those who want to cash-out of BTC that is "dirty", then IMO that makes BTC not perfectly fungible.

Well, the gold market at the wholesale levels works somewhat similarly.  The LBMA (the world's largest physical gold custodian) carefully tracks the gold bars it holds, and even allows into the system.  It is very hard to get gold of uncertain provenance ("dirty" gold) into the LBMA system.

The below article explores this, and hints that we are almost there re a hierarchy of gold and BTC (dirty gold and dirty BTC are worth less):

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-gold-staying-clean


EDIT:  The article suggests this is more of an issue at the wholesale levels (institutional investors, etc.)

...

Your AMLBot is an interesting service that you offer.  I have learned some interesting things I knew little about before.

Highly recommended for those interested.