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JJG 579188
I recently had my first physical exam as it had been a while, and I'm getting older... Among the many things we discussed was his preoccupation with our HUGE problem with various elites (esp. .gov) LYING about so much. He was very disheartened, and it's not just goobermint, it's so much else. Well, yeah, Doc. A Culture of Lies. Ugh.
Our conversation crystallized something for me. I believe even less what I am told, especially by the MSM, .gov officials, Banksters, etc.
But, my Dr. sure ain't perfect, even with the points we discussed. He refused to give Rx's for Ivermectin and HCQ. We're vaccinated, but we know MOAR pandemics are coming. Yet he would not allow me to get them (and yes I know that they may not work, but that ought to be my decision). Grrr...
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[mostly edited out] Surely my various back and forths with you over the years has informed me that you, Oro, seem to be more in the camp of someone who has gone through a certain level of personal consideration of your chosen allocation amount(s), your chosen strategies and your reasons for such. Accordingly, I am responding to the ideas of your post, and not so much to you in regards to the idea of allocation and also how aggressive someone might want to be in connection with his/her chosen allocation amounts. Another peculiarity for you, Oro, seems to be that you had already had a pretty decently long investment history with gold and perhaps some other kinds of investments, so you have had developed a variety of comfort levels with your cash management and assessments of your needs and your financial goals that may well differ from other peeps, but the main thing remains your own comforts with your chosen balances of a variety of personal factors that may well differ from a decent number of others who may be weighing those various personal considerations. I guess the main point still is that even if there might be some disagreement regarding the aggressiveness (or lack thereof) your chosen allocations in the smeemingly whimpy 1% arena, and also including your frequent reallocation (seeming choice not to let your winners ride a wee bit more), but it still seems to both float your boat and allow you some level of comfort (to the extent that you are not just making shit up... hahahahaha). Anyhow thanks for referencing me, which I largely read as an opportunity to harass you a wee bit.  I have very much enjoyed back & forths here at W.O., in part because the quality of conversation here is so much better than the rat-nests that so infested Zero Hedge when I was a member there (it's even worse at ZH now). DO note that anyone with even a wimpier 0.1% of BTC is way better off (in that portion of his/her portfolio) than almost anyone else. I got lucky, bought from 2014 - 2020, sold a bunch in 2017 and 2021. 1% is meaningful when that magically made it to nearly 4% (ahh, that would be the tranches that I sold near the ATHs). I have cashed out a bunch, but still HODL way more than the Average Joe. Even if a wimpy 1% way less than the Average Joe W. Observer. Indeed my personal circumstances very different than almost anyone else's here. I pretty much had to learn on my own, with nice help along the way. With one exception, NONE of my friends or family are into BTC/crypto (though our son-in-law is into BTC and ETH, and fairly bigly). 1% seemed to be the "right" amount. Perhaps the best investment advice I ever got was: "Buy only as much as you understand"That was from obscure gold guy FOFOA. And that advice has worked well for me for decades. But plain old good luck has been a big piece of that. Or His Will for those who so prefer. I do not ever forget that. I will never forget that: I never got here on my own. |
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Back in the fast lane here in Bitcoinistan...
Positive shout-outs to:
-- LoyceV (578830), hey I had a nightmare last night that the CIA was recruiting me for something... Yeesh. EDIT: Just back from visiting grandchildren in DC, must be it...
-- JJG (578870, but does it matter which long post?) for general sensible advice. My original thoughts of having 1% of my net in BTC turned out well. Was up to 4%...
-- El-Dude @ 578835 nice re Elon hoarding his, erm, Cobalt! That's an investment alternative, though hard to buy in America. Rare earths available at tradium.com in Germany.
-- Gyrsur @578842 for spot-on humor. The Good, The Bad, The Ugly and The Very Nasty?
and of course:
-- proudhon, spectacular chart showing the H&S formation at bitbo.io 's 5 year chart. Scary.
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We've literally been in the bearish movement for weeks. The bull market is over, and there will never be a recovery. This is THE bear market.
If that so, prepare for the other lower price. You can buy many bitcoin this time so you need to make sure you are ready with your wanting price and place it right now before the price is down. Maybe you can set a much lower price to buy bitcoin and do not buy at once because we do not know how deep the price will down. I am sure there will be a time for the price to recover, which can happen this year or next year. I don't want to buy bitcoin. Bitcoin is dead. Gold. Physical gold only, stored under your personal control, backed by lead and lead projection devices. Merited for relentlessness. |
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Peru might be next, but NOT as legal tender. Last I looked, leftist whacko Pedro Castillo (graduate of the Hugo Chavez School of Government) has a small lead in their presidential run-off election. Castillo is not a run of the mill leftist.
Peru has been fairly much a laggard in adopting BTC, but I have bought bfrom two ATMs there, both of which might be gone (at least one of them is, I'd have to check coinatmradar to see if the other is as well).
I know Venezuelans here in my city. It is horrible what is happening there. They use BTC (and another crypto, Dash?) more than one would expect. In some cases, BTC/crypto saves lives...
If the Peruvian people choose to go down that road, may the Lord save them. Bitcoin would help Peru in such dire circumstances, but not that much.
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I am not exactly sure about their average costs per BTC in connection with MSTR's purchases in connection with each of the times that they issued the debt, but it seems that one was around $10k and the other was around $20k, but around a month ago, Saylor had announced that MSTR had an average BTC purchase price of around $24k per BTC for all of their BTC holdings.
So your scenario of BTC lingering at $30k for 5 years (or let's say another 4.5 years when those notes would come due) does not even put MSTR in the negative regarding their use of debt for those purchases.
I meant that they would be under water with this latest debt-financed purchase (e.g at ~$34k) if BTC gets stuck in a prolonged bear season... but if you're saying they don't have to repay it - weird, but what do I know LOL - then I guess they have some breathing room. Still, being a public company I think there is a risk of a minority shareholder lawsuit or some shit like that, which could unravel the whole scheme. Not being a hedge fund or some other investment vehicle and trying to gamble on a very volatile asset seems like asking for trouble. MSTR (and Saylor et al) are making a speculative bet that the value of the bitcoin that they purchased with that debt is going to be higher than the price that they paid for the bitcoin with that debt (plus the 0.75% interest on the first one, and the second one was issued without interest, as I already mentioned).
Well, that's just that - if Bitcoin does well then surely they'll be able to refinance the debt and keep going possibly without ever selling any coins. But if it doesn't do well enough at the right time for MSTR and they have to dump a large chunk... that'll hurt quite a bit more than Musk's trolling. I'm still puzzled how we despise debt here - we do, right? - but still cheer debt-fueled speculation. As much as anyone here, I love it when BTC goes up. BTC (and you guys here at the forum) has been very good to me, and to my grandchildren. But, suchmoon raises such a great point. I loathe debt personally, but am perfectly happy with how (any?) debt could have fueled BTC's amazing run. It is puzzling to me as well. We'll see how it all turns out. As someone wrote: "The next 48 hours are critical." Or was that the next 72 hours? The next two weeks? |
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...Will turn around soon-ish I guess
Will not turn around ever I know. I hope it does turn around, but in my case it really doesn't matter. Been selling small piece by small piece since I got into Gemini in January, and hence could cash in better all of my old low-cost BTC. At this point it matters little to me, as I already have made much more than "any right I had" to make. BTC has helped me to start a fund for each of our two grandchildren. And allowed us to fly Business Class, even after paying the loathsome Capital Gains Taxes and all. Still have a stake. Still will sell, poco-a-poco. But I will keep my "Legacy Stash" just in case we see $100k. Or $250k. Or $0.1k Go Bitcoin, go! We need financial options. But, unless you're young or rich, don't get too greedy.... |
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Here we are dipping below $35k again. Reset those clocks ladies and gentlemen. We might bounce around $35k a few more times (never staying above $35k for 10 consecutive days), but the obvious reality is that there's only one way to go from here, and it's down; forever. The fact in my sig will eventually become obvious to everyone. This time you've enjoyed above $10k will be seen as the temporary glory days. Bitcoin simply cannot do it.
By luck I sold a piece at +/- $35,200 or so just today. Yet even if it goes to $500, I have been a big winner by selling regularly since January. Snip, snip, snip, snip, snip, snip, snip, snip, snip. Thanks to many of this forum's members, my two grandchildren have already benefitted. So even if proudhon's science & maths are far ahead of my own (they are!), it doesn't really matter much anymore, I have been very lucky. You really have not won until you sell winners into gold, assets, or money (to buy assets or give away). 'Course I will without doubt keep a Legacy Stash of BTC. "For Old Time's Sake" And, hey, maybe proudhon might need to tinker with the math if we zip over $100k. Yay for that as well. EDIT: It's an extremely close one (presidential election) in Peru FYI [anyone who cares]. BTC might gain another country where it can be used. Last time I was in Peru, I used a BTC ATM which is no longer there. If Pedro Castillo (Marxist Disciple of Venezuela's Chavez and Maduro) wins -- and he is up almost 1% in the vote count as of now, it's AMF to Peru, but maybe BTC will have another use-case as in Venezuela. |
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A casual search here at the forum and another GOOG search seemed to show just a lot of people attending, but not much happening. There was a lot of hype before the event.
Did any of you members go?
Did anything interesting happen or come up?
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Easy call.
Hell, dawg, I'm not even sure it can stay above $40,000 for 10 consecutive days anymore. Time to rerun the math... |
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Ugly dumps, lets hope that next week is a lot greener!
I'm from the future. Next week will not be greener. It only gets worse from here. Let's do a test. BTC price approx. $46,500 at the time you wrote. (Ah, $46,075 as I write) |
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This is my 666th post, scary shit.
you now have 250 merits should help you move up. Philipma1957! Just the sort of guy who might be able to answer a question I just asked over at another thread (at Development & Technical), since you're a miner...: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5336854.0What happens to "change" that would come back after sending a small amount (say BTC0.0001) to a miner?Asking for a friend. EDIT: Hey Philip, the question has been answered over there. |
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Most miners have a (relatively anyway) fixed address. Here is one from Poolin that was the last block winner as I write:
191sNkKTG8pzUsNgZYKo7DH2odg39XDAGo
There is a substantial balance of BTC there (over 400 BTC now).
What happens to the "change" if someone were to donate, say, BTC0.0001 (+ small fee) to Poolin's address? Would that BTC received back as change then be considered "clean"?
Asking for a friend...
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Buying BTC now is extremly risky.This is a bubble what we see now. Soon the prices will drop to 20k then buy BTC.
But now is not the time at the end of the bull run.
Soon we'll reach good point to buy at 20k btc this good price.
now is high price i wouldn't put 60k on btc.
but is good time to buy altcoins that can make you x2-5x
I can't believe how pathetic your calculations are. Bitcoin is not a good price at $20k. I've proven this multiple times with a perfect math model using science. Bitcoin is a good price at around $100, and that's being optimistic. The price is going to crash far, far below $20k. You're far too bullish and clearly do not have a scientific model using facts. $49,788 as I write. Tick-Tock. |
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OP will say it's the end, I say it's just the beginning.
But it's the end $53,000, and on its way down. Prepare for impact. |
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OT: The media blathers on incessantly about "Oh yeah, look, the economy is returning to normal. Jobs are coming back! People are spending again. Prosperity and employment will soon be back to pre-covid levels! Yay!" No. They. Are. Not. Coming. Back. It's all a lie.  Yes, Torque. I hear the Happy News a lot on the finance channels, but there are many indicators of terrible stresses on people and companies, not to mention that the lockdowns, face diapers and general paranoia about COVID not to mention the "social problems" we are having. I also see little evidence of jobs coming back and the other usual similar twaddle. I read both pieces saying we are going through inflation, pieces saying we are going through deflation (something really there re deflation -- M2 money growth has led to little price inflation except for food and ASSET PRICES...) Real interest rates still remain negative best I can tell. Our .gov has become more addicted to lies than ever, and at larger scale. Ugh. |
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I love you Proudhon you are the best.
I sold a chunk of my holdings today.
I usually sell a chunk when we hit a new ATH.
Almost wise. Should have sold everything and opened a safe low yield savings account with a safe traditional bank. Updated OP to account for another very trivial error. Yeah, just sold a smidgen myself. Should have sold more, but have to run and do errands. Ah well. Science and maths will prove all in the end. |
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Mmmm.. Would $75k be the RanchMaker?
The dozen or so coin I sell at $75k will fund Phase 2 of the buildout, where we add an additional greenhouse, and expand the solar array from 50kW to 100kW. Probably buy another two parcels around us for more acreage. Rick wants to take up Golf, so prolly going to build a private driving range in the middle of Bumfuck, TX, eventually. Maybe a golf course out there. Who knows... EDIT:  I dunno, kind of bored in the $60ks. When $70k? j/k |
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Wondering if $60k is gonna stick this time...
Set a sell order at $67k just incase... for... reasons. Not that I expect it to shoot up that high, this soon.
Mmmm.. Would $75k be the RanchMaker? |
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That is exactly what it's like driving in Quebec even if you're not American. Several years ago I (an American) got a speeding ticket in Quebec, driving back to Montreal from Val d'Or on a lonely highway. Beautiful scenery, no traffic, road in excellent condition, so I let 'er rip. Cop caught me doing something like 130 km/hr. Ah well. Cool thing was I could pay the ticket at a bank in Montreal. |
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