Stock-to-flow model.
"Stock to flow" does not apply to Ponzi scams. I don't know if any of you noobs understand economics at all - and I wasn't there to personally witness the event or personally audit all the bookkeeping - but the great depression involved a liquidity deficit. Some claim it was an engineered depression by the banks, others claim it's not; who knows, that doesn't matter for this discussion. What matters is that if Bitcoin was actually the unit of account of anything (I.E. the world reserve currency and everything is priced in Bitcoin), the halving itself is a liquidity implosion similar to the great depression. With Bitcoin not being the unit of account of anything it doesn't really matter because it just functions as a meaningless pump and dump scam, but if you actually tried to price everything in the world in Bitcoin it would be laughable. What type of "monetary system" do you know of where every vendor on the planet needs to massively adjust all their prices every four years? None exists because anything with such stupid mechanics always dies because anything operating with such dynamics is a Ponzi scam. The purpose of a monetary unit is to provide price stability, not be unstable by default. In terms of having an actual functioning economic system, the 'halving' is a monetary crisis, not some sort of benefit. The only people who view it as beneficial are pump and dump scammers hoping it allows them to make money off algorithmically designed, large volatility. If Bitcoin was designed to actually be useful as a unit of account for something instead of a Ponzi scam, the block reward would be static eternally. The government creators of Bitcoin who want it to function as a cashless society slavery system where everything you do is monitored in real-time knew it would be impossible to try and get anyone to use Bitcoin with an infinite, static block reward over metals, so they designed it as a get rich quick scheme, Ponzi scam to later be adjusted or replaced when it eventually fails due to having no use case beyond a pump and dump scam. Thank you very much for your realr0ach point of view, I respect his way of thinking about these scenarios, historically gold is always the best way out of the crisis, Bitcoin is undoubted protagonist today, in my case, I give much importance to both the investment and the refuge of the value that It represents, although many economists do not recommend it because it is volatile. For those of us who can handle the volatility of BTC (and possible perceived risks of an investment/speculation we do not fully understand), BTC is a great piece of diversification. I hodl enough BTC so that if it moons in price, I benefit nicely. But, I am not the kind of guy who likes putting too many single investment eggs into my basket. Especially now that I am aging (older than most of you). Do recall that anyone hodling ANY BTC already is way ahead of the game, as so few (6% of Americans?, though that seems way high to me) hodl any BTC. Thus, should it moon (an excellent probability, IMO, of it doing so), only we 6% will be winners. I do not need to be a #YugeWinner to be content with entering this arena (nor a #YugeLoser should BTC collapse). My hodlings are enough to bring me a Big Smile should we exceed BTC's ATH. Bring it. As our European friend "el_duderino" has long written: "This is fine" and "This is HODL". * * * I still do not understand the antipathy of BTC hodlers to gold. (Of course, you can see the opposite too, look zerohedge FUD-ers) Gold and BTC are, in essence, both assets outside the $IMFS (our financial system). But they are somewhat different in their price movements as well as their various other properties. They are different "vectors" if you will. That's why I like them both!
Precious metals and BTC are natural and complementary allies.Edited for clarity |
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It's a good thing I didn't vote in the latest poll. I would not have foreseen this pump, para nada.
I am wrong some 80% of the time trying to make short-term trades (inc. buying BTC, price goes down immediately after I buy). That same pattern has always been with me: casinos, put options on the S&P 500, buying gold, etc., bang!, they go down as soon as I buy.
Now I stay away from short-term & rigged games (inc. alt-coins).
BTC and Au: HODL! Nice diversification, works for me.
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ivomm and WO friends
I wouldn't touch it myself either, but I have never seen a coin with a market cap over $1,000,000,000 go up 96% in one day. I smell a trap.
BTC hodler only.
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CME did more BTC Options volume on Day 1 than Bakkt did today.
RIP Bakkt
Hardly knew you Tiny bit early to judge, nonetheless gutting for Rekkt Bakkt Bakkt trades options eventually settling into real Bitcoins. CME trades options eventually settling into shitcoin US Dollars. Difference is not trivial. Usual self-promoting ad: Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask!Yeah, but in practice, is it really true? Are we making a distinction without a difference? Does BAKKT really have the bitcoins that they proclaim to have? Surely, you cannot take possession of BAKKT bitcoins, so how do we know that they are NOT full of shit in terms of actually backing their purportedly traded (betted upon) bitcoins with real bitcoins? We might find out if Bitcoin does an unexpected 10x in the next 6 months. Would be nice to test out some of these systems, especially if they don't have bitcoins and the proclaim to have them. good point. although didnt we learn the other day that bakkt isn't 100% settled in btc after all
O.k... sure a bit more succinct... I concede. This is a good point to get settled once and for all: Whether or not one can get their "physical BTC" from BAKKT, whether there is an option (or not), etc. Making a paper (electronic?) profit from a good trade at BAKKT (assuming no BTC settlement) still would leave me unsatisfied if I wanted BTC! Is there a Rule Book easily available for understanding (in non-legalize) what is possible with BAKKT? Has anyone here actually traded with BAKKT? Inquiring minds would like to know... |
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Seeing some news I have now come across this: "Expert says gold and bitcoin prices are not correlated", which emphasize the Non-Correlation of gold and Bitcoin, in my previous post they give some arguments to believe that yes, it is really curious to run into With two types of thoughts. In this article: Expert says gold and bitcoin prices are not correlated“On standard economic and financial measures, gold and bitcoin are at opposite ends of the spectrum — gold is historically a safe haven while bitcoin is a risky asset. Gold is a physical asset that will be valued for decades to come (and been a reserve of value for centuries) while bitcoin is a string of numbers on the computer that may change overnight, ”Cartwright told Decrypt. What is certain is that when there were those war drums Bitcoin behaved as a refuge of value, even if temporarily but it did.
If I were to guess, I would think that BTC and Au have a small but real positive correlation. Someone with more skills and data than I have should do a good study on that. Certainly in times of real geopolitical trouble one would expect both to go up in price as both are refuges from the financial system. Until that time, I will HODL both BTC and gold.  |
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NAILED that one (just above, #511300 last page) exactly right, LUCKMCFLY. My greater family has had quite a string of cancer deaths in recent years.
* * *
Banks and Equifax are some real enemies of unwary people. HODLing assets outside the financial system only makes sense.
r0ach deserves some credit for that as well as all of you, physical Au is also outside the financial system. Precious metals and BTC are natural and complementary allies. And their prices are somewhat independent of each other, hence complementary. YES, I did see the chart showing the (weak, IMO) correlation of prices of BTC vs. Gold. "The academics" use a rule of thumb that a correlation of 0.30 is "significant". That above chart (I'll go back and hunt it down and EDIT this post in a bit) shows BTC & Au always less than 0.30, and showed NEGATIVE correlation for some time. Seems to me, amateur statistics guy, pretty independent of each other.
EDIT: Should have known is what LUCKMCFLY who posted that interesting chart showing correlation of BTC and Au (#511281, last page). Note that if you look at the "area under the curve" (a la integral calculus), you will see that adding up all those low correlations comes to near zero, close enough for the correlation to be be, effectively, near ZERO at least IMO.
BTC and gold act independently of each other, at least for now. If Hong Kong gets slaughtered by the Commie Reds, that of course could change quickly...
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As evidenced below: thanks for paying me in the last two days, Bob... that is why we are such buddy, buddies......  #NoHomo.I don't want to sound like a queer or nuthin, but, I took you off my ignore list just now... finally. Please PLEASE PLEASE try to work on editing your missives for less verbosity. Unless it is merely coincidental, I have no plans to change my ways... hahahahaha Good luck. Regarding my earlier post about the diptwat, the only one blah blah blah.. I hate drawing attention to the guy or his thread, but I really resent posting in any thread in which the OP (thread owner) has a penchant for deleting posts. Although could be that any deleted post could be reposted in some thread in which substantive posts are not deleted.. to the extent that the deleted post has any meaning outside of the context of the thread. Probably the vast majority of forum members do realize that self-moderated threads on a controversial topic tend to be mere propaganda pieces, yet I suppose that there are some members who don't realize the difference between a self-moderated thread and one that is not. As evidenced below: thanks for paying me in the last two days, Bob... that is why we are such buddy, buddies...... #NoHomo.I don't want to sound like a queer or nuthin, but, I took you off my ignore list just now... finally. Please PLEASE PLEASE try to work on editing your missives for less verbosity. Are you asking gravity to not tug so much? Exactly. MERITED for, well, positive and shit. Shine on, guys! I like reading the loooong versions, at least if the topic is interesting. If not I move on. Can't fight gravity and all. It's all good. This is fine. |
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Ya pueden ver, amigos? That 1% (my BTC hodlings of my net) can mean something, more than one might think! Vamos, pues... |
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This is effect ot the QE. Easy money tide lift every boat. Bitcoin hopelly will fix that. Read Saifedean Ammous chapter on how hard money in the italian renaissance called for hard worked art (think about Michelangelo's frescoes on the Cappella Sistina). Easy money calls for this .... i don't know how to define it. This Everything Bubble is going to end very poorly. Easy Money for those connected. ZIRP and even NIRP. Whether it goes with a bang or with a long whimper, hey, I don't know. Diversification and low/no debt look like winning positions to me. |
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@ Gumbi - good job. It looks like AnonymousCoder has lost it's mind over so many facts he can't handle.
@ Traxo @ debley @Dan81 @ unwashed @S29
you don't seem to mind that Anonymouscoder has recently posted 12 almost identical messages in the forum with a lot of screaming (captital letters) and tries bullying other forum user.
I agree. Let's keep it friendly guys. ^--- Yes, please keep all of this friendly. Much more constructive. Negative people can ruin experiences for others who may have good insight, but are not interested in getting into stupid internet flaming wars. I started this thread years ago when Shelby/Anonymint brought up Armstrong. Armstrong wrote an impressive series of historical/finance papers while in prison many of which I read before coming to bitcointalk. Once he was out, I was hoping that his blog would provide useful material for those of us who would read it and think about it. I was NOT interested in digging deep into Socrates and his other thinking, especially "reversals". Too murky for me to understand. Unfortunately I had not seen any useful actionable financial advice from his public blog, however interesting many of his articles have been, and hence have lost interest. Please note that I do not have any access to his private materials, declining to subscribe to them in part because of comments I occasionally read here that they are not particularly useful... I am astonished (in a happy way) that this thread has gone on so long. If anything, Armstrong has provided material that we can get in very few other places, which is worth something. How much is that material worth? Beats me. That's why I started this thread, to explore what he says and predicts (also to keep from clogging other threads way back when, another reason why I started this one). Shine on, guys! Keep it friendly! Do let me know if he ever becomes transparently bullish on gold and/or Bitcoin. Maybe I'll then take the other side of the trade! Bwa ha?    (Edited because, you know, because...) |
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JJG
Naah, just down here on vacation visiting my wife's family here in Peru. Our kid, her husband and our 5 month old grandson just arrived back to the states.
Been buying and hodling for a long time, though in 2017 I bought gold and platinum with as its (BTC) price rocketed up, although I missed the tip of the peak. Did very well in 2017 as my cost bases were very low. Paid my taxes too (USA).
Did not sell at all in 2018.
If we get back to, say, $12,000 (I did not sell any during the the mini-spike we recently had), I will probably sell some BTC. $15,000 probably some more. $20k, a tranche more. Etc. Numbers approximate, but consistent with what I did in 2017 (worked out very well then). But, I will HODL some always, at least until $100k or probably even higher.
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TryNinja
I went to their .onion a couple of weeks ago and it seemed to work (it loaded) OK (TOR). I just looked around, and saw the new exchange service and pretty much the same mixing service as before.
Not an expert nor programmer! Self-taught (none of my friends know much about BTC).
When I tried their old ".io" I did get a note that that link no longer works.
Other than the above remarks, I can offer no explanations. Nor do I have any old contact info.
* * *
Nor can I comment either on their claim to offer virgin BTC. Maybe they (will) have a deal with one of the Russian miners popping up all over Siberia?
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JJG
Makes me wonder what the (approx.) number of lost BTC there are out there... And I presume BTC will occasionally get lost as (we) boomers die off w/out telling anyone where we have them?
Smart HODL-ers may want to tell someone they trust how to get any HEDL BTC upon their deaths. Is there already a thread for this?
realr0ach
"Good fences make good neighbors." Been true for a long, long time.
V8s & bitserve
"Meme Greta" seems to be dying a quick death. Too embarrassing for the Warmers? Good riddance.
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... bitmaximum, last I checked, was back online and apparently even offering crypto exchange services. I used them (for mixing) in the past with excellent results (a little pricey though). They are still only using their TOR service: bitmaximumgnmsaf.onionIt looks like they will soon offer some kind of "Virgin Coins" or nearly so, directly from (some of the) miners. It looks like it will be expensive (15% or so, and you have to take the whole block. If anyone is brave enough to try one or more of their services, please let us know! Virgin (of course) coins are straight from the miners (or perhaps via a bitmaximum address, I don't know) are of value to some people for privacy reasons. * * * Are there any other services (mixers, etc.) that offer virgin BTC? |
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... A few years ago I bought a digital BitBox from Switzerland, and had mostly great results from it (it was a minimalist design, which I liked). It did its job well, which was all I cared about. Just Bitcoin, no annoying firmware updates, etc. Alas, I used the device kind-of a lot (stacking small amounts of BTC in for safekeeping). Unfortunately the device eventually failed (it did get hot while plugged in), so I wound up buying a Ledger and a Trezor afterwards (so far so good with both). But I am curious as to other people's experiences with the BitBoxes more recently. They now offer two versions of their new BitBox02: -- a Bitcoin only edition (for those only interested in BTC and to reduce attack vectors) -- a multi edition that allows using various other cryptos (more to be added) They also continue to offer their original BitBox, now called the BitBox01. I would be interested in hearing about experiences with these Swiss-made devices, thanks. Check them out: https://shiftcrypto.ch/ |
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Innovation in BTCRelatively new initiatives and show a more complete picture of Bitcoin stack technology.  Users when using Lightning can make transactions privately on the use of additional techniques and network layers, such as Tor, from here the percentage of private use of the lightning network can be estimated by analyzing the number of channel opening transactions in the chain compared to the number of public channels outside the chain. Source: https://medium.com/@LucasNuzzi/a-look-at-innovation-in-bitcoins-technology-stack-7edf877eab14Very interesting chart on innovations of Bitcoin. I hope to see many of these adopted as well as articles on how to use them. BTC still needs a lot of work to become more secure, private and easy to use (yeah, I know some of those contradict to some degree). Still, ease of use will help both merchants and consumers consider using BTC. I am here in another country which has very, very little BTC usage, but is has grown since we were here some eight months ago. |
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realr0ach
Our local CVS has a big sign advertising *FREE* flu shots now. Free, huh. Hmmm.
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AlcoHoDL asked a reasonable set of questions. Not all of us have lots of time here at W.O. nor are programmers. We are all learning. I too would like to know the right answers. I don't like to spread any FUD nor anything negative.
Lauda replied with unnecessary venom. That likely means that s/he was having a bad day, even for a grumpy kitten. Lauda, I hope that your day is going better now.
Peace. <-- Lauda, get you some. You'll feel better.
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... Re Shelby Moore's theory of forced SegWit donations, I would suggest that there might be a way to see as the next months go by. On the Long range advance notice! thread, I mentioned several block winners (pools) and listed the first six alphanumerics of their receiving wallets. I examined 100 recent blocks to see who won, and their receiving addresses. I chose 100 to get a reasonable sample to examine (blocks 604143 - 604242). Of the 17 unique addresses (winners), seven were SegWit (3....) or Native SegWit addresses (bc1q....). The "3" and the "bc1q" addresses won 33 of those 100 blocks. My data is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pLWVImy9E8O9A3yY4RcwkL-HZeiAFTcSudu8oTpk90I/edit?usp=sharingI submit that the miners (who we presume are not dummies) will not allow their BTC from 3s to be stolen, so soon before we should expect that those SW receiving addresses would be changed to Legacy addresses (1....). Perhaps all the advance notice we need is to observe if/when the above miners using SW addresses to switch them over to Legacy addresses in the run-up to (or perhaps just after) the May 2020 Halvening.If they suddenly start switching..., then they would probably have a very good reason. Your comments encouraged! |
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Reasonably respected personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki mentions in his recent book Fake three kinds of money:
-- "God's Money" (gold and silver)
-- "People's Money" (Bitcoin)
-- "Government Money" (fiat = FRNs, taxes must be paid in $/FRNs)
He's good with two of the above three, I'll leave it to you guys to guess which one he does not like...
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