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1141
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Long, slow slide
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on: July 18, 2011, 05:55:43 PM
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There are still a lot of people with a lot of coins that were acquired when the price was well under a dollar. If things continue, I'm sure many of them will be happy to cash out at even $5 (potentially profiting thousands of dollars in from a small initial investment in less than a year). I think everybody should be prepared for things to get real ugly. Honestly, I'm not even confident this project will survive a year as anything more than a tiny hobby with a market cap of a few million. It looks to me like this ship is sinking, and I have a hard time imagining any well-funded investors foolish enough to jump on board at this point.
Another good example of the sort of negative sentiment predictions that may eventually indicate the full deflation of the bitcoin valuation bubble. |
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1142
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Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: amusing places for rigs
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on: July 13, 2011, 02:49:24 PM
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I put my three case-less rigs in the crawl space under my house in Austin, Texas, USA - where the outdoor temperature reaches 100+ F. But the crawl space is a steady 86 F. Here is a typical temperature reading from one of the rigs: $ DISPLAY=:0.0 aticonfig --odgt --adapter=all
Adapter 0 - ATI Radeon HD 5700 Series
Sensor 0: Temperature - 74.00 C
Adapter 1 - ATI Radeon HD 5700 Series
Sensor 0: Temperature - 66.00 C |
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1143
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Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: MTgox API Poll Failing [Not Solved ... ?]
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on: July 13, 2011, 02:30:12 PM
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I shutdown my recording of Mt Gox trades yesterday because I am turning my attention back to unrelated research. I had planned to create a bot for market making but found that Mt Gox trading is already too efficient for my simple algorithms to profit.
But for about 10 days I have been polling Mt Gox every 30 seconds for ticker, trades and depth with my Java based API client. There are occasional periods of up to five minutes or so when Mt Gox times out, and there are also occasional SQL errors returned. Otherwise I have been satisfied with the API performance.
I recorded about 90,000 trades just fine.
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1144
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Blizzard Entertainment & Bitcoins
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on: July 10, 2011, 04:24:04 AM
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Actually given how kids are shut out of a lot of net commerce due to not being able to get a credit card and such, but may just have a decent graphics card for games and time and knowledge to figure things out, I bet the number that would do this is far more then you would suspect. It also is smart marketing to get kids used to bitcoins and the idea they have value.
Agreed. And bitcoins are a boon to anyone wanting to hide financial transactions - and for those reasons cannot use conventional payments online. |
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1145
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Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: How to build your own open air chassis on the cheap...
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on: July 10, 2011, 04:18:18 AM
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I have three rigs in a similar setup - 2 GPUs per motherboard. I was concerned a bit about a fire hazard so I put the power supplies on pieces of ceramic floor tile, and I elevated the motherboards 1 inch above the plywood, with small spacers at the corners. But I use 5770s so altogether the rigs draw at most 860 watts through a UPS from the socket.
Noise and airflow are not problems with 2x5770 per motherboard - for me, as I put them in the crawl space under my house.
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1147
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is the Bitcoin falling ? DDOS breaks almost every major Pool
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on: July 08, 2011, 02:02:36 PM
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I do not agree solo mining must be bad.
....
It is the risk of getting 0 BTC what scares people it seems.
Exactly, the expected returns may be better for solo mining but the variance of results makes it into a lottery. The great majority of miners prefer the rather steady returns yielded by the lowest-variance, largest mining pools - despite the slightly lower expected return. I generated two blocks as a solo CPU miner a year ago, but would never consider solo mining today. |
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1148
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: POOLS under DDOS ATTACKS
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on: July 08, 2011, 01:49:12 PM
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Distributed denial of service attacks - DDoS can be defeated and prevented - but the victim may need to change their internet service provider.
Briefly, a DDoS stems from a multitude of controlled client computers - the botnet - in which the botnet operator causes them to flood a particular victim web service with connection requests or other useless messages that may consume all the input bandwidth allowed the victim, leaving none for legitimate customers.
DDoS attack traffic can be detected and removed by a cooperative internet service provider. The ISP generally has very high capacity bandwidth with the internet backbone network, and at the point of connection to the backbone DDoS filtering can be performed on behalf of the victim's servers hosted by the ISP. This DDoS mitigation and prevention service is promoted by certain ISPs - for example those now hosting Mt Gox and BTC Guild. Other ISPs may not be as cooperative or may not have the network devices to effectively prevent DDoS attacks.
Most small websites using low-cost ISPs are thus unable to withstand DDoS attacks with their present ISP and must migrate their servers to a more secure ISP when attacked.
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1150
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Economy / Marketplace / Re: [BETA] Dark Exchange: a 100% decentralized p2p exchange
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on: July 07, 2011, 03:38:30 AM
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I launched Dark Exchange beta 2 again and immediately searched. The above reported exception did not occur again.
I Have Bitcoin To Send By Bitcoin Transfer
I Want United States of America, Dollars Sent By Dwolla
and it found two offers OK.
I selected the first one and clicked the View button and reasonable details were displayed. I canceled the transaction because I am not actually prepared for a real transaction.
So far so good!
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1151
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Economy / Marketplace / Re: [BETA] Dark Exchange: a 100% decentralized p2p exchange
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on: July 07, 2011, 03:22:51 AM
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Hi, I just downloaded and launched beta 2. I needed to launch it twice before it found 7 peers. However, before I tried searching, I received the following exceptions ... ERROR [darkexchange.uncaught-exception-handler]: Uncaught Exception:
java.lang.RuntimeException: java.lang.RuntimeException: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: "java.io.IOException: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: ""Missing lob: 4"" [90028-157]"; "lob: null table: -1 id: 4" [90031-157]
at clojure.lang.AFn.run(AFn.java:28)
at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:662)
Caused by: java.lang.RuntimeException: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: "java.io.IOException: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: ""Missing lob: 4"" [90028-157]"; "lob: null table: -1 id: 4" [90031-157]
at clojure.lang.LazySeq.sval(LazySeq.java:47)
at clojure.lang.LazySeq.seq(LazySeq.java:56)
at clojure.lang.RT.seq(RT.java:450)
at clojure.core$seq.invoke(core.clj:122)
at clojure.core$dorun.invoke(core.clj:2450)
at clojure.core$doall.invoke(core.clj:2465)
at clj_record.core$find_by_sql$func__4289__auto____4305$fn__4306.invoke(core.clj:73)
at clojure.contrib.sql.internal$with_query_results_STAR_.invoke(internal.clj:194)
at clj_record.core$find_by_sql$func__4289__auto____4305.invoke(core.clj:72)
at clj_record.core$find_by_sql$fn__4309.invoke(core.clj:71)
at clojure.contrib.sql.internal$with_connection_STAR_.invoke(internal.clj:105)
at clj_record.core$find_by_sql.invoke(core.clj:71)
at clj_record.core$find_records.invoke(core.clj:85)
at clj_record.core$find_record.invoke(core.clj:91)
at darkexchange.model.peer$find_record.invoke(peer.clj:41)
at darkexchange.model.peer$find_peer.invoke(peer.clj:67)
at darkexchange.model.identity$update_identity_peer.invoke(identity.clj:53)
at darkexchange.model.identity$update_identity.invoke(identity.clj:59)
at darkexchange.model.identity$add_or_update_identity.invoke(identity.clj:64)
at darkexchange.model.interceptors.identity_interceptor$identity_updater.invoke(identity_interceptor.clj:9)
at darkexchange.model.interceptors.identity_interceptor$client_interceptor$fn__6773.invoke(identity_interceptor.clj:18)
at clojure.lang.AFn.run(AFn.java:24)
... 1 more
Caused by: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: "java.io.IOException: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: ""Missing lob: 4"" [90028-157]"; "lob: null table: -1 id: 4" [90031-157]
at org.h2.message.DbException.getJdbcSQLException(DbException.java:327)
at org.h2.message.DbException.get(DbException.java:156)
at org.h2.message.DbException.convertIOException(DbException.java:313)
at org.h2.value.ValueLobDb.getInputStream(ValueLobDb.java:283)
at org.h2.value.ValueLobDb.getReader(ValueLobDb.java:267)
at org.h2.jdbc.JdbcClob.getCharacterStream(JdbcClob.java:112)
at sun.reflect.GeneratedMethodAccessor43.invoke(Unknown Source)
at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:25)
at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:597)
at clojure.lang.Reflector.invokeMatchingMethod(Reflector.java:90)
at clojure.lang.Reflector.invokeNoArgInstanceMember(Reflector.java:265)
at darkexchange.model.base$clob_string.invoke(base.clj:9)
at darkexchange.model.base$load_clob.invoke(base.clj:13)
at darkexchange.model.base$clean_clob_key.invoke(base.clj:22)
at darkexchange.model.peer$peer_clean_up.invoke(peer.clj:39)
at clj_record.callbacks$run_callbacks$fn__4255.invoke(callbacks.clj:17)
at clojure.core$r.invoke(core.clj:799)
at clj_record.callbacks$run_callbacks.doInvoke(callbacks.clj:17)
at clojure.lang.RestFn.invoke(RestFn.java:442)
at clj_record.callbacks$after_load$fn__4262.invoke(callbacks.clj:32)
at clojure.core$map$fn__3699.invoke(core.clj:2096)
at clojure.lang.LazySeq.sval(LazySeq.java:42)
... 22 more
Caused by: java.io.IOException: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: "Missing lob: 4" [90028-157]
at org.h2.message.DbException.convertToIOException(DbException.java:346)
at org.h2.store.LobStorage.getInputStream(LobStorage.java:449)
at org.h2.value.ValueLobDb.getInputStream(ValueLobDb.java:281)
... 40 more
Caused by: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: "Missing lob: 4" [90028-157]
at org.h2.message.DbException.getJdbcSQLException(DbException.java:327)
at org.h2.message.DbException.get(DbException.java:167)
at org.h2.message.DbException.get(DbException.java:144)
at org.h2.store.LobStorage.getInputStream(LobStorage.java:444)
... 41 more
ERROR [darkexchange.uncaught-exception-handler]: Uncaught Exception:
java.lang.RuntimeException: java.lang.RuntimeException: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: "java.io.IOException: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: ""Missing lob: 5"" [90028-157]"; "lob: null table: -1 id: 5" [90031-157]
at clojure.lang.AFn.run(AFn.java:28)
at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:662)
Caused by: java.lang.RuntimeException: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: "java.io.IOException: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: ""Missing lob: 5"" [90028-157]"; "lob: null table: -1 id: 5" [90031-157]
at clojure.lang.LazySeq.sval(LazySeq.java:47)
at clojure.lang.LazySeq.seq(LazySeq.java:56)
at clojure.lang.RT.seq(RT.java:450)
at clojure.core$seq.invoke(core.clj:122)
at clojure.core$dorun.invoke(core.clj:2450)
at clojure.core$doall.invoke(core.clj:2465)
at clj_record.core$find_by_sql$func__4289__auto____4305$fn__4306.invoke(core.clj:73)
at clojure.contrib.sql.internal$with_query_results_STAR_.invoke(internal.clj:194)
at clj_record.core$find_by_sql$func__4289__auto____4305.invoke(core.clj:72)
at clj_record.core$find_by_sql$fn__4309.invoke(core.clj:71)
at clojure.contrib.sql.internal$with_connection_STAR_.invoke(internal.clj:105)
at clj_record.core$find_by_sql.invoke(core.clj:71)
at clj_record.core$find_records.invoke(core.clj:85)
at clj_record.core$find_record.invoke(core.clj:91)
at darkexchange.model.peer$find_record.invoke(peer.clj:41)
at darkexchange.model.peer$find_peer.invoke(peer.clj:67)
at darkexchange.model.identity$add_identity.invoke(identity.clj:45)
at darkexchange.model.identity$add_or_update_identity.invoke(identity.clj:65)
at darkexchange.model.interceptors.identity_interceptor$identity_updater.invoke(identity_interceptor.clj:9)
at darkexchange.model.interceptors.identity_interceptor$client_interceptor$fn__6773.invoke(identity_interceptor.clj:18)
at clojure.lang.AFn.run(AFn.java:24)
... 1 more
Caused by: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: "java.io.IOException: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: ""Missing lob: 5"" [90028-157]"; "lob: null table: -1 id: 5" [90031-157]
at org.h2.message.DbException.getJdbcSQLException(DbException.java:327)
at org.h2.message.DbException.get(DbException.java:156)
at org.h2.message.DbException.convertIOException(DbException.java:313)
at org.h2.value.ValueLobDb.getInputStream(ValueLobDb.java:283)
at org.h2.value.ValueLobDb.getReader(ValueLobDb.java:267)
at org.h2.jdbc.JdbcClob.getCharacterStream(JdbcClob.java:112)
at sun.reflect.GeneratedMethodAccessor43.invoke(Unknown Source)
at sun.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:25)
at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:597)
at clojure.lang.Reflector.invokeMatchingMethod(Reflector.java:90)
at clojure.lang.Reflector.invokeNoArgInstanceMember(Reflector.java:265)
at darkexchange.model.base$clob_string.invoke(base.clj:9)
at darkexchange.model.base$load_clob.invoke(base.clj:13)
at darkexchange.model.base$clean_clob_key.invoke(base.clj:22)
at darkexchange.model.peer$peer_clean_up.invoke(peer.clj:39)
at clj_record.callbacks$run_callbacks$fn__4255.invoke(callbacks.clj:17)
at clojure.core$r.invoke(core.clj:799)
at clj_record.callbacks$run_callbacks.doInvoke(callbacks.clj:17)
at clojure.lang.RestFn.invoke(RestFn.java:442)
at clj_record.callbacks$after_load$fn__4262.invoke(callbacks.clj:32)
at clojure.core$map$fn__3699.invoke(core.clj:2096)
at clojure.lang.LazySeq.sval(LazySeq.java:42)
... 21 more
Caused by: java.io.IOException: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: "Missing lob: 5" [90028-157]
at org.h2.message.DbException.convertToIOException(DbException.java:346)
at org.h2.store.LobStorage.getInputStream(LobStorage.java:449)
at org.h2.value.ValueLobDb.getInputStream(ValueLobDb.java:281)
... 39 more
Caused by: org.h2.jdbc.JdbcSQLException: IO Exception: "Missing lob: 5" [90028-157]
at org.h2.message.DbException.getJdbcSQLException(DbException.java:327)
at org.h2.message.DbException.get(DbException.java:167)
at org.h2.message.DbException.get(DbException.java:144)
at org.h2.store.LobStorage.getInputStream(LobStorage.java:444)
... 40 more
By the way, how is the Dark Exchange client visible in the i2p dashboard - under local destinations? |
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1153
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Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Miners calling it quits?
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on: July 06, 2011, 12:45:38 AM
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My rigs have been offline most of the day due to the DDoS attack on BTCGuild. I have not cared to establish alternate pooling arrangements - yet.
I too am curious about the current availability of long-sought-after 5830s on Newegg. I would not buy them, (1) because I would have to buy another motherboard, CPU, power supply, and maybe add another dedicated 20 amp circuit, and (2) because its not so much the projected difficulty increase - but rather the likely full deflation of the bitcoin price bubble that influences me.
Mining difficulty, in my opinion, lags the bitcoin price, i.e. difficulty goes up because miners get excited about rising prices and add capacity to their rigs. But in a situation in which prices are declining, miners may face a situation in which difficulty is not dropping, or perhaps not dropping as fast a bitcoin prices drop.
Miners not adding to their capacity are making a judgement about the future prices of bitcoins. Therefore miner sentiment/behavior is interesting to me as I consider what signs signal a bottom to the bitcoin bubble deflation.
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1154
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Economy / Marketplace / Re: fracking fragile charts
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on: July 06, 2011, 12:29:19 AM
|
I am recording Mt Gox quotes using their trading API, and I noticed a couple of long pauses today. It is very likely that the chart producing software is not at fault. Rather it is the Mt Gox exchange which sometimes suspends trading - or is behind in their order reporting. |
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1155
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Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: What price are you going back in at?
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on: July 05, 2011, 10:30:02 PM
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Bitcoins are not headed towards oblivion in my opinion. The bitcoin economy must be distinguished from the bitcoin bubble. By way of analogy, consider Amazon. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMZN+Basic+Chart&t=myDuring the Dot-Com bubble AMZN soared from a low value to around $100 per share, as traders generally projected the expected Internet economy and Amazon's central role in that Internet economy. When the Dot-Com bubble deflated, Amazon's stock price sunk by two thirds or more, yet their participation in the Internet economy proceeded anyway. Now in the fully post-dot-com-bubble Internet economy AMZN is trading at $213. The point I am making is that the bitcoin price bubble is simply characterized as traders getting way ahead of themselves - eventually the bitcoin economy will get there too. Yeah - but for all we know bitcoin can be pets.com instead of AMZN. Your example is illustrative actually of my point. pets.com was 30% backed by Amazon.com. The underlying Internet economy grew and Amazon continued to grow with it. Pets.com was a niche product company that overspent on advertising; a consequence of being late to the party. Your point would be more relevant if there were competitors to bitcoin - some of whom might be expected to fail. But there are no competitors to bitcoin. It is simply good enough to capture the market for an efficiently traded, secure, electronic currency that provides a disruptive alternative to the bloated-fee payment mechanisms such as credit cards, and provides an inflation-resistant means of measuring economic value. |
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1156
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Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Capital cost.
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on: July 05, 2011, 10:12:11 PM
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When I built my rigs the 5770 was the best card available - as 5830s were gone.
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1157
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Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Mtgox exchange in free fall $$$$
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on: July 05, 2011, 08:29:42 PM
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it's rising again, buy now.
Looks like the channel I've been following all day finally has a sideways breakout following the spike down to $11. It will be interesting to look again in a couple of hours to see where the current activity around $12.5 goes. [update] July 5 - the channel pattern is ended with a brief breakout to the upside. Resistance was reached at $14 and presently prices are settling in around $13. If the bitcoin bubble deflates further, one could expect support at $11 which was the recent low. |
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1158
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Economy / Marketplace / Re: Value of bitcoin dropping
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on: July 05, 2011, 08:26:33 PM
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can someone who is more experienced with btc tell me what they think is going to happen with btc?can it recover after a dip like this? or will things only go downhill from here based on what they know?
What about the difficulty?as that affects mining.Can the difficulty drop as well as rise? or can it only get harder to mine?
Back in April, 2011, one could purchase a bitcoin for $1 or less. Since then we have experienced a brief but sharp bubble that is in the process of deflating. It has been argued in another thread that the bubble should be deflated by the end of August and that prices should drop to the pre-bubble level. I am a bitcoin miner, and I expect difficulty to slowly rise and either level off or decline as unprofitable miners stop mining. As the overall network hash rate declines, remaining individual miners will earn more bitcoins for a given amount of mining activity. In the scenario I expect, these future revenues will be lower than what miners are earning now. The design of the bitcoin protocol is such that competitive miners should push the network hash rate to the level where the marginal miner pays their electric and air conditioning bills, depreciates their mining rigs, and make a small profit to justify the venture. I think that the days of paying off a new mining rig in a month or two with earned bitcoins are gone. Thanx a lot slipperyslope for the in depth info on why things are the way they are.So it looks like that I can either mine more bitoins when the unprofitable miners stop mining but I can expect less income from each btc.It makes me think whether it's really worth doing even with the general boost in mining capability then because that'll keep me thinking in the mid term (up to 6 months at least) Well I think I'll bite the bullet and keep mining then knowing that my mining abilities will be boosted simply because of the unprofitable miners going off mining,although it wouldn't hurt for me to learn how to mod my Radeon Hd 6950 card by at least unlocking the shaders so I can get even more btc than at the moment. I wonder if the remaining miners will resort to coin hoarding and wait until things get profitable to sell and the whole cycle will repeat itself or the best of the BTC years are truly behind us for good and another currency may take it's place until the same cycle happens again ans so forth. Good luck with your existing mining rigs. I too, plan to continue running mine until such time as my electricity is not covered by the earned coins. I suppose that I'll get stuck in the end with a highly depreciated set of Radeon 5770 graphics cards - but I can always use one or two in my programming work, and put the others on the Austin craigslist at a giveaway price sometime next year. |
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1159
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Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: What price are you going back in at?
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on: July 05, 2011, 08:17:07 PM
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I liquidated my 12 month mining hoard at $15.5 and will get back in when the bubble fully deflates. Sentiment has to be very negative for the bottom to set in, and expect premature false starts on the way back up. Examples of negative sentiment would be - mining difficulty - slower growth, leveling off, or decline
- miners selling their rigs
- long time hoarders cashing out at very low prices and giving up on bitcoins
- ASIC developers postponing their mining chip development due to unfavorable economics
- continued decline in the Google Insight popularity of "bitcoin" searches
- forum posts arguing that price watching/obsessing is not important
I plan to investigate bitcoin economy indicators to see if there is a way to predict bitcoin value due to merchant/consumer/miner activity. Excellent analysis. Do you see the mining difficulty as being the most important factor affecting price? If miners lose interest and sell their rigs, is BTC ultimately headed for oblivion? What of the BTC already mined? Is there any residual value in this crypto currency? Thanks for your insights, Stew No I think that mining difficultly lags the price increase, in that rapid price increases spur miners such as myself to add rig capacity. The reason that I think a leveling off or a decline in mining difficulty marks a post-bubble bitcoin price bottom is because miners got very excited during the bubble run-up and I expect them to be less excited - perhaps to the point of disenchantment - during the post-bubble decline. Bitcoins are not headed towards oblivion in my opinion. The bitcoin economy must be distinguished from the bitcoin bubble. By way of analogy, consider Amazon. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMZN+Basic+Chart&t=myDuring the Dot-Com bubble AMZN soared from a low value to around $100 per share, as traders generally projected the expected Internet economy and Amazon's central role in that Internet economy. When the Dot-Com bubble deflated, Amazon's stock price sunk by two thirds or more, yet their participation in the Internet economy proceeded anyway. Now in the fully post-dot-com-bubble Internet economy AMZN is trading at $213. The point I am making is that the bitcoin price bubble is simply characterized as traders getting way ahead of themselves - eventually the bitcoin economy will get there too. I believe that ultimately, the price of bitcoins will closely correlate with the size of - and fluctuations of - the bitcoin economy, which one might define as routine commerce transactions among merchants, consumers, and miners. The bitcoin economy will probably feel the bitcoin price bubble to some extent, but I expect it to keep growing as the advantages, e.g. efficiencies, of bitcoin transactions spread their way into the worldwide financial mainstream. |
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