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1125
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Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [BETA]Bitfinex - Meta-Exchange and margin trading
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on: March 06, 2013, 07:33:29 PM
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Congratulations on exceeding 100K USD margin loans. I just began participating as a lender on the BTC side, so you have my strongest support.
Could you remark on the safeguards on bitcoin lenders in particular with regard to short positions closed to insufficient margin. In a strongly rising market, short positions suffer losses beyond their margin - right? I understand that Bitfinex absorbs these sorts of losses so that the BTC lender does not risk a loss. Great! But Bitfinex obviously needs a reserve, a certain amount of bitcoin, set aside to cover these losses. What might that reserve be?
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1128
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Economy / Speculation / MtGox volatility up ... does it feel like the very beginning of the bubble?
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on: February 28, 2013, 05:59:07 PM
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As a legacy CPU bitcoin miner, I watched the whole bubble #1 back in June 2011. The recent breakthrough new high is accompanied by increased volume and volatility. A few more media stories are coming out -and the bitcoin economy indicators are continuing exponential growth, albeit from a minuscule base.
I think that we are in the first 20% range of the next bubble - sort of the hills from which we can see the foothills, and from where can see the mountains. Like that, right?
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1129
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Economy / Speculation / Re: We broke 32!!
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on: February 28, 2013, 12:53:31 AM
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Well not too many sell orders - so lets see what happens.
I, for one, am celebrating with a glass of red wine - and am happily listening to the Clark Moody real time chart beep at me.
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1133
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Economy / Speculation / Banging on the door to a new high
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on: February 28, 2013, 12:28:36 AM
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Just watching and listening to the wonderful Clark Moody realtime chart as BTC at MtGox approaches the all-time high of 31.91. The web-app has a default beep when a trade at or over 10 BTC occurs. Such a lovely melody.
Anyone care to comment who is watching? There is a big ask order of $117,606 at 31.89. Likewise very large buy orders have appeared. This is very dramatic - like watching financial battle bots!
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1135
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Is the rally train leaving the station at $14?
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on: July 25, 2011, 04:39:34 PM
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a couple of large purchases have not been countered by like sales.
The only time there is such a thing as a purchase or a sale is when they are still outstanding. Every big sale requires buyers and every big buy requires sellers. What I meant was two periods in which prices moved sharply upwards on much higher volume, suggesting perhaps two large orders to buy at market. This behavior is contrary to what happened earlier in the month - from the 11th to the 18th - in which prices moved lower during some periods of atypical high volume, suggesting large orders to sell at market. |
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1136
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Alternative Indications of Price Trends
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on: July 25, 2011, 03:39:51 PM
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It may be that the proposed indicators are not predictive, but rather coincident or lagging. If the rally of the past couple of days persists, it will be interesting to align the turning points of the proposed alternative indicator data series with the bitcoin price series to see whether the rally was indeed predicted, or perhaps merely confirmed.
I put more stake in the indicators that track active bitcoin wallet nodes and transaction bitcoin-days, as proposed elsewhere.
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1137
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Follow the Money
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on: July 25, 2011, 03:32:51 PM
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From the Rick Falkvinge blog post http://falkvinge.net/2011/06/16/bitcoins-four-drivers-part-one-unlawful-trade/ ... Between 5% and 30% of the world’s money supply of about 75 terabucks are in circulation to support unlawful trade. The guesstimates vary due to the nature of the subject. Let’s assume 5%, and then let’s move on to guesstimate that 10% of those 5% is in high-tech trade that would be early adopters of Bitcoin (the kind of merchants capable of building intercontinental undetectable submarines).
Let’s assume that these merchants move about one-sixth of their trade to Bitcoin over the coming years to explore it and use it for long-distance transactions. That would mean 15% of 10% of 5% of 75 terabucks enter the Bitcoin ecosystem, which comes down to about 60 gigabucks. The current value of Bitcoin in circulation is roughly 6.5 megacoins times 20 bucks, coming to about 120 megabucks. Rick argues that unlawful trade will be an important early adopter of bitcoins. He goes on to write about three other much larger bitcoin adoption drivers. |
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1138
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Economy / Speculation / Is the rally train leaving the station at $14?
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on: July 25, 2011, 03:27:42 PM
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I sold my 12 month hoard of bitcoins at 15.5 on the way down as the bitcoin bubble deflated. In the past week, the price trend has stopped declining, and a couple of large purchases have not been countered by like sales.
This morning I bought back in via small lots at about 14.1. And I've stopped selling my daily mined bitcoins.
Is the bubble deflated and the rally train leaving the station, or do you guys see more bubble deflation ahead?
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1139
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Hold on to your seats.
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on: July 18, 2011, 07:21:35 PM
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It is very likely that the downdraft from 14 to 12.5 and below will rebound - but probably not back up to 14, as the bitcoin valuation bubble deflates. Recall that back in April, one could buy a bitcoin for a dollar.
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