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2221  Economy / Economics / Re: Price inflation =/= Monetary inflation , but why do CB use the CPI data then? on: March 03, 2015, 02:59:39 AM

Is your disagreement with bubbles of preference or existence?

BTC lives in this world, so it must be compared as if it's a part of it.  Given the nature of traditional currency, that bad money drives out good, all other currencies should be have spent away into a collapse of bank credit outstanding issued by central banks.  Instead, during the largest demand for currency in many decade, BTC lists badly, the 70 minute practical confirmation times notwithstanding, while central banks' credit exploded.


What I am saying is that bubbles will always form, so intelligent people can hedge their risk, use insurance and other methods to minimize risk.

A commercial guy can use future contracts, or buy options to hedge their risk.

Also after a bigger credit market will form, and a bigger investment market, you will see interest rates stabilize. They used to ask for 30% rates on 1 week credits (look it up in the lending section), now they lowered it.

So obviously as liquidity of credit becomes bigger, interest rates will become smaller, and thus the volatility of the exchange price will also stabilize with it.

Am I misunderstanding that you as a free marketeer, you want quotas on collateralizations rates?

2 methods can exist: if we use the cental bank system , then 100% reserve requirement is necessary , however if we use a truely free system where people can choose their currency of preference, then it's not needed.

For example in Bitcoin you have no choice but to use 100% reserve.

But if some1 would invent a crypto currency where "decentralized supernodes" (crypto-private-banks) could issue more currencies
then they set a reserve requirement as they wish.

So then it's up to the people to choose which one they will use: Bitcoin with 100% reserve, or this new currency with arbitrary reservers.

Of course since nobody would set the reserve requirement for these crypto banks, probably all of them would use 0%, which would destroy that currency entirely though inflation, even if 1 crypto bank would use 100% or 80%, the majority would still use 0%.

Another option is to let the users vote the reserve requirement for the crypto banks, and they all have to obey that, built into the protocol.

But still, at this point, this would be a free market. Private currencies competing with eachother, yes i still think that 100% reserve currencies would win.

If it's not 100% then eventually you will end up with hyperinflation Smiley

It's communist, but it's not a dictatorship.

Any currency can be used in the US with a few security blamed exceptions.  People choose not to because they pay taxes with the USD, and the available choices do not justify the added tax burden. 

Perpetually low nominal while simultaneously high real interest rates that the Argus-Nemesis can do, should make the switch much easier.

Yet they keep the interest rate artificially low. The primary market is always the one who loses, they have to accept the rates from which the fed gives them.


Taxes would not exist in a free market. They are the tool of opression and control of interventionists. We dont need any government to control the economy because it would be free, therefore taxes would be obsolete in this world.
2222  Economy / Economics / Re: Price inflation =/= Monetary inflation , but why do CB use the CPI data then? on: March 03, 2015, 02:42:13 AM
Ok here is my second part of my response, sory for being late i was busy with other projects.


Would you mind linking to which quantitative model you're using?

A great portion of Austrians reject quantitative analysis yet conveniently use the quantity theory of money to illustrate the harmful effects of inflation.

Chicago also of course claims to be heir of Smith, but Chicago is the only school that declares the quantity theory of money to be correct outright, and monetarism is an offshoot, unofficially founded by Milton Friedman.

Well there is no specific model that I can point at, i`m using always that seems the most logical to me, so it's not just 1 school of thought that I use, but my core foundation is in the classical economics.

I don't reject quantitative analysis, I just dont know that they are true or not, i have to look into it myself to determine, which I havent done lately. I wasn't in the loop of economics for a few years so i`m  could be a bit rusty for now, but what I never accepted is controlled economics.

I`m always for the Laissez Faire principle. Because control freaks are inneficient, corrupt and also probably wrong on so many levels.


Unlike what feminists tell half the world's population, you cannot have it all.

You either have supply stability or price stability and almost never both.

If you condemn inflation then you cannot support supply stability because supply stability produces periodic spikes of inflation, like BTC from early 2014 to now, and periodic crashes of deflation, like BTC from launch to early 2014.

Haha dont even bring up feminism, they are just leftists gone amok, the same nonsense as socialism , just for women only.

Yes you cannot have it both, but before i thought that price stability was more important. I changed my mind, supply stability is more important.

Many economists say that we need stable prices for commerce, but thats not really true.

Future contracts, Insurance, or other risk - mitigation insturments can be used by any commercialist, for risk mitigation.

There is no null risk, you will always have that, but good entepreneours must manage their risk accordingly. Those who didnt, might deserve to go bankrupt. It's just the survival of the fittest.

Stabilizing prices will only create inflation and debt, which after a century can cause an unimaginable financial collapse which will obliterate all progress done, not a sustainable model. And not even considering the 8 year cycles of mini-collapses.

The main problem with keynesianists is that they try to achieve a 0 risk model, which is impossible. There will always be years of non-productivity where GDP growth might be negative, but other years it will grow and compensate for it.

You must always release the pressure and have smaller depressions, instead of building up the steam and release it all at once in a huge total economic collapse.

Keynesians, Monetarists, and other idealists are therefore 100% wrong.


So you will raise production growth rates after decimating it through the unavailability of credit?  Please explain.

Yes, without inflation, prices in general are stable, but any particular price could be high.  With high rates of interest, the cost of capital is high, so no capital can be built.

Without credit, production cannot be funded, and all of the consumption you described will be out of reach with all of us in poverty.

In the Middle Ages, they literally lived in houses made of feces.  Is that the choice you're offering with government mandated high rates of margin and price instability?

How will one extend oneself credit to fund building a house if one has no funds to pay the workers and materials?

■Ok first of all, most companies already got 10000% profit margins, so prices can easily fall and should fall.

■I don't care about bankers, they are already a big burden of the economy. The banking/credit sector is like 40% of an economy, when it should be about 1-2%. They are overgrown and they are useless. They only create false demand for credits by shoving them down on people who don't have a choice.

You can't buy a house from your saving, because your wages are crap, so you have no choice but to take a loan. When in fact in a gold standard-100% reserve requirement-deflationary enviroment the house prices would fall, and guess what, home builders would still be in profit because their profit margin would be still positive.

Yes a few home brokers and building companies would go bankrupt, but who cares? Who said they should exist in the first place? Central bankers think they are the GOD OF ECONOMY, and everything should be done as they say. When there is no right or wrong in an economy. An economy should be shaped by real demand and supply, and not by false artificial demand created through inflation.

■ Actually the institution of "bank" has already become obsolete, with the advent of Bitcoin. They are useless now, and if there would be real demand and supply, all of them would already go out of business. Because Bitcoin is already superior to any payment processor or money holding institution.

■As for the credits , BTCJam has that, of course we need more of these companies, but eventuall, there will be a wide range credit system for bitcoin too, just be patient  Cheesy

After prices fall to their real prices, you would not need that much credit anymore to fund your project, so the credit market will shrink to its normal size, as it should be.

All this credit card, student loan, car loan nonsense just makes me sick. A car should not be more expensive than 1 year net income of a household, given that there are so many of them already...


I understood you clearly.  That iPad loses retail value because better ones come for sale.

As it appears that the newer products are inflating, the older products are deflating.  The used market is not taken into account in almost every modern price index.
That is only because the materials or labour is getting more expensive, or the technology is worth more. But still there is demand for used markets too, and not just a little.

There are full retail store chains that sell second-hand stuff, so there is a real market for that. Big mistake that it's not taken into account.


However, if supply stability brought a 50% inflation, doubling the real amount owed on debt, consumption would surely drop while that is being sorted out.  Under economies with those levels of price stability, food cannot be afforded anyways.

One more reason to discourage enormous credit markets. Yes under the current conditions we are pretty fcked up, the world is in huge debt, you see all central banks around the world decreasing interest rate (to negative too) and doing QE:  EU, Sweden, Canada, etc

And also markets are already collapsing, despite they try to preserve the inflated bubble: like the oil market , which already rendered Russia , Venezuela and other countries in big trouble.

So at this point there is nothing else to be done. Either they increase the interest rates now and we suffer a huge economy collapse worldwide.

Or we will have nice global hyperinflation Smiley


Yes, if the quantity of money increases enough to cause an inflation, the value of money has dropped, so no one has benefited from the increased supply of money, only suffered.

Not noone, the bankers did, because they are on the top of the pyramid. They got billions in loan interest rates, while the others suffer price increase and pay the interest. The banksters always shield themselves from inflation.

So the bigger the inflation will get, the more they will demand and steal to not lose money from inflation, so eventually they will rob the entire world, until the global economy collapses.

The US has not experienced a 15 year expansion, and the 10 year interval is 1980s young.  From the 1980s to the Fed's birth, 5 year expansions were more normal, and pre-Fed metallic currencies brought almost biannual chaos.

Well too late now, they cant increase interest rates anymore because the debt is so big that they will go bankrupt if they do so.
2223  Economy / Digital goods / Re: ●♦◊ BUY MY SOFTWARES AND SELL IT FOR MONEY! ◊♦● on: March 03, 2015, 01:13:30 AM
If someone tries to sell something that has a banner ad in it, they will know its a free version. No one expects banner ads in something they pay for. You are just trying to get people to advertise the stuff for you. I don't see that it can be sold, without repercussions, because of the ads.

I understand your complaint, but let me explain why it is so.

■First of all the software is already selling at half price than it would normally do. All these softwares are sold for 15-100$ while mine is hardly 4$. The martingale tester is worth atleast 50$ , yet I sell it for about 10$.

■Secondly, your claim is invalid: What about steam? And other popular games. Pay -per -download + they are full of ads. My softwares contains only 1 small banner, than can be hidden so I don't think it's that much of a burden. Also it has no other ads like popup or annoying ads, only 1 small banner that can be hidden, thats all.

■Thirdly, my software gives automatic commercial rights to everyone who purchased it. Try that with other softwares, i don't think you will find anybody else so generous that will let you sell their software without paying them royalty. My royalty is the banner ad itself, so i`m very generous. Otherwise a commercial license would cost around 100-500$,I require none of that.

So let's recap: only 5-10$ for a very useful software + free commercial rights, I think it's worth it. And i`m sure others view it fair aswell, if you still think its unfair, then suggest me a better price. I`m up for negotiation, but you must provide good arguments for it.

Anyway thanks for feedback, i appreciate all feedback, negative or positive
2224  Economy / Digital goods / Re: ●♦◊ BUY MY SOFTWARES AND SELL IT FOR MONEY! ◊♦● on: March 03, 2015, 12:38:39 AM
Ok people, the softwares are no longer free-to-download because of the small traffic.

Now they cost a little bit of bitcoins to download, don't worry they are cheap enough though, however if you find the prices too high, it can be negotiated, so let me know if you think they are too high.

Also here is an affiliate system now, hosted by my friend, where you can help us sell them and we will give you instant 40% comission for each sale you deliver, instantly and automatically credited to your bitcoin address!

Check it out here if you want to earn 40% comissions: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=973523.0

Thanks for understanding!  Smiley
2225  Economy / Digital goods / Re: ♦▪♦▪♦ Selling my BitcoinStats 1.5 Software's Source Code! ♦▪♦▪♦ on: March 02, 2015, 02:45:19 AM
Maybe you'd get sales if there wasn't a huge "DONATE" section in the bottom right.

Yes that donate section is in the compiled read-only software, however I`m selling you the editable source code, not the software itself, the software itself is freeware, you can download that for free, in this thread.So once you buy it, you can remove that from there.

You can edit the software as you please. It is a source code, so you can do whatever you wish with it afterwards.

Or just become my affiliate, and help me sell it, you get 20% comission, a generous 0.004 BTC/sale!  Cheesy
2226  Economy / Digital goods / ♦▪♦▪♦ Selling my BitcoinStats 1.5 Software's Source Code! ♦▪♦▪♦ on: March 02, 2015, 02:34:15 AM
Hello i`m selling my software's source code. The software is Bitcoin Real-time Stats 1.5, as shown here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=948131.0




The software was given out for free, but now i decided to sell it's source code for bitcoins. Not much,it's cheap, only 0.02 BTC for a fully functional and ready to edit source code, as you please.

The source code is in C#, fully functional and can be edited/modified with Microsoft Visual C# 2008 and above.


OR

You can become my affiliate and help me sell it here:  http://satoshibox.com/54f3c87e4c347bec3300838b/partner
I give you a generous 20% comission for each sale, that is 0.004 BTC/sale.

Thank you!
2227  Economy / Economics / Re: Price inflation =/= Monetary inflation , but why do CB use the CPI data then? on: March 01, 2015, 02:43:06 AM

Yes, and only a currency such as The Ideal Reserve that has price stability will yield a real return of 0.5% on that investment.

Supply stable assets almost never match the nominal and real yields.  In the case of BTC, if someone held that investment denominated in BTC and invested at BTC's height, the real return from last year's price inflation would've been worse than the Fed's above, hundreds of percent worse.

I also disagree with bubbles, let's be honest bitcoin doesnt have an established credit-investment system yet so dont compare bitcoin to the current system.

There are some who try: Havelock and BTCJam, but they are still in a low market cap. Once it gets more mainstream it will work just fine.

100% reserve requirement is always necessary though. Otherwise you will end up with ponzi credit schemes.


It's almost like a dictatorship since those in the US may use almost any banknote they wish.  They are forbidden from coining money.

The Fed is mandated by law to maintain price stability and low levels of unemployment.  They have interpreted this as maintaining a 2% inflation rate.

The Fed cannot control the real rate of interest, only the nominal.  The market always decides the inflation adjusted rate of interest.

It is a dictatorship, a monetary one. They can't have their private money system, that is the definition of it. Classic communist style central planning method of controlling everything.

Yet they keep the interest rate artificially low. The primary market is always the one who loses, they have to accept the rates from which the fed gives them.

I`ll respond to your other points later


2228  Economy / Economics / Re: Price inflation =/= Monetary inflation , but why do CB use the CPI data then? on: February 28, 2015, 11:00:24 PM
They may know the money supply, but the Fed gave up on trying to formulate M given P almost as soon as it was founded.

Now, they follow their Fed Funds target: if the actual rate is higher than the target, they sell; if it's lower, they buy.

I wasnt talking about short term rates, i was talking about long term fixed rates. If Joe got 100.000$ deposited for 6 months on a 1% interest, and he is fooled that the inflation rate is 0.5% he thinks he made a 0.5% return, but if the yearly inflation is 5%, he just lost 2500$.

Btw, why does the FED interfere in the short term loans rate? Why not let the market adjust itself?

See this is what i cant understand this interventionist control freak mindset. If the market signals something, for example the overnight rates rise, why does the fed sell those insturments instead of letting the interest go where it needs to. Let the market determine the interest rate and not a commitee with hidden agendas.

After all they decide what the interst rate should be, but its more like a dictatorship rather than a "adjusting to market" basis.

If you don't subscribe to monetarist principles then why use their quantitative models?  I know of know other model that relates supply to inflation.
I`m using what is good from every model and throw out what is bad. Smithianism was never quantified in it's time, so it was never a full theory of economics.

So those quantitative models don't actually belong to Monetarism.



The evidence on the surface suggests that moderate inflation is good.

In the US, inflation averages nearly 2%, and the overall real rate of economic growth is relatively high at least compared to Europe a larger economy, but Europe also has nearly 2%.

In Japan, there were a few decades of 0% inflation on net, yet their overall growth stagnated despite having debt levels like Hong Kong, which has higher than US average inflation.  However, Japanese real per capita growth is very high.

Growth and credit is dependent upon economic freedom but also price stability.  It's impossible to build a large financial structure on top of price unstable currencies, and no large per capita income is present where large debt is not.

From my own research, it's clear that continuous price stability is the optimal monetary configuration.
Why is inflation necessary at all?

Inflation is a plain robbery of purchasing power.

With a 100% margin requirement loans, by discouraging a few loaners, indeed obtaining credit would be harder, and probably it would have a higher interest, but.

And this is a big BUT. Without inflation, prices would never be high, so 99% of the time people would not need credit. They would only need credit if they start some big project, where they obviously have to meet a few requirement to access the loan.

All this credit card mania, house loans, car loans, student loans. All big pile of donkey crap. None of those items should be more expensive than 1 year revenue of an average middle class person.

They used to build houses on their own in the middle ages, it cost them a few beers and a few cattle to pay off the helpers and thats all.

And now you indebt yourself for 25 years for a house loan?  Grin

So my point is that, yes 100% margin requirement would hurt the GDP, but mixed with no inflation and low prices, it would cancel out all negative effects, and actually it would make it atleast 1000% more efficient than now, and easier to consume.

The GDP growth rate should be about 20% /year (without inflation as byproduct), instead of tiny 0.2% which is probably just made up.

One argument would be the scarcity of resources, but i`m sure we can find a solution to that: synthetic oil plants, algae generating natural oil, etc.

This should not be a problem in a civilized 21st century, unless we are being controlled by thugs, which is sadly the case  Sad


They are not deflationary because they are different products.  Prices of different products cannot be compared for the purposes of determining the inflation rate.  An iPhone from today cannot be compared against a previous version, only itself.Productivity in technology grows as rapid rates, but prices do not.

You misunderstand me, i wasnt talking about a class of products, i was talking about 1 particular product.

1 ipad, you buy now for 300$ or whatever, 1 year from now you can't sell it for more than 300$, and not ever 300$ because it get's used, or it goes out of trend, or it just has a age watermark put to it.

Yet with houses its the opposite, not because the house market works in a different economic universe, but because it's being pumped up by the central banksters.

You buy 1 house or a farmland, and you bet that in a few years you can sell it for profit. While making poor people who just want to buy a home, being indebted to banks, just for the sake that some house brokers, and speculators can become rich.

Not very moral, and also disastruous for the economy in the long term.


I never suggested they would.

However, if supply stability brought a 50% inflation, doubling the real amount owed on debt, consumption would surely drop while that is being sorted out.  Under economies with those levels of price stability, food cannot be afforded anyways.

I dont understand what you try to say here please explain detailed.





From the presupposed added money supply which produced the presupposed price inflation.

Lol they don't give out that money for free. It's not like they drop the money out of helicopters.

They either loan it out, or they buy assets with it. None of those will benefit the poor strata.

If they loan it out to businesses: the consumer pays that extra costs, reflected in the price.
If they loan it out to other central banks: other taxpayers will pay it OR other consumers that buy products  from those companies that receive that loan.

Either way it's a chain of layer of debt on layer of debt.

Actually it's a pyramid scheme, where the CB's are on the top , below the big banks and credit institutions (and their rich class owners), below the middle class consumer & tax payer, and below that the low class taxpayer & consumer (of mostly welfare)


The scheme implodes every 10-15 years, and then they reset it and start it again. This is going on for atleast 3000 years.


Do you have a data source that supports that?  The Consumer Expenditure Survey and equivalents in the developed world show that the rich do most of the spending albeit at lower proportions than the poor.

In % its always the rich who spends less. They spend more nominally, yes because the products they buy costs alot. G4 Jets, Lamborghini, new mansion,etc. But it's only a fraction of their wealth, otherwise they would not have wealth/

Buffet and others, accumulated their 70b dollars by not spending it. If he would have spend his wealth, he would not have it LOL.  Cheesy

While the poor people are mostly poor because they spend all their money. My uncles father had a nice income all his life, and didnt got any excessive wealth built up before he died, because he spent all his money. If he would not spent it, he would have been a pretty wealthy person in his community.
2229  Economy / Economics / Re: Price inflation =/= Monetary inflation , but why do CB use the CPI data then? on: February 28, 2015, 09:08:10 PM
A Laspeyres is useful if you have nothing else, but most non-US central banks use the Ideal Fisher Index like with the PCE.  They only call them CPIs.
Actually it doesnt matter what the central banks use, because they know the money supply. It's what the other units of the economy use.

If an investor is fooled by low inflation, and keeps his savings in a bank on 1% interest when he is fooled that the inflation is only 0.5%, he thinks he is making returns on that investment, when actually the inflation is 4-5%, so in reality he is losing money.

The deception is always in the outer layer, the insiders can always shield their money, and not all big investors got insider sources, so most companies will lose money eventually, and they won't even realize it before it's too late...


The model you're using to describe the consequences of prices, output, and money look like the quantity theory without velocity.  Can you point me to the theory you're using?

I`m a classic Smithian/ Austrian Economist, because i found all these theories just basic common sense. The foundation for economics has been layed out in the 1700-1800, and everything after that was mostly propaganda.

The communists say collectivism is correct, liberals favour keynesian/ monetarism. It has more to do with the political agenda rather than real science.

So i find most of these theories bullshit, or built on bullshit. Keynesianism tries to solve a problem, created by itself, when they dont realize that the only problem is themselves.

All these newly come modern problems in economics has mostly been generated by central banks, and a rigurous control over economy and free trade. Without it, the world would be a better place.

I agree with the harmful effects of price inflation, but I don't agree that there are any positive benefits.

Inflationary monetarists believe that a little inflation is productive.

Nearly all monetarists agree that deflation is not productive.

Then why are they supporting central banking and government regulation of the economy, when it's obvious that these 2 institutions are the problem that they try to resolve.

-Socialists will always overspend , deficit-spend, and you will always need central bank to print money for them.
-Military-industrialists will always overspend , deficit-spend, and you will always need central bank to print money for them.
-etc etc

I don't agree with the little inflation, because who say's what is enough? The common 2% inflation is that it? Then why not 2.01% if 2% is good, but if 2.01% is good too why not 2.02%? You see, so we can easily set that limit arbitrary, and soon you wake up with 20% inflation...

There is no way to slap on the hands of central bankers when they overshoot, so they will overshoot, and the consumer will bear the costs.

Deflation is not productive? Really. So iPADS , iPhones, Electric gadgets, Pc's, Cars,etc. All of these markets are deflationary, and you don't see any slowdown in consumption.

If iPhone 20 would come out tomorrow, nobody would wait 1 year for the price to go down, everybody would buy it tomorrow at that price.

So nobody would buy food for 2 years because the price of it would be cheaper after 2 years?  Cheesy

That is the most bullshit argument against deflation that can ever exist. Deflation doesn't have to encourage consumption, it just merely gives the consumer more purchasing power so that he can buy more stuff,thus consumption will eventually increase!

While inflated money is like a grenade in your hand, you always have to pass it on to another person, and not let it blow up in your hands. You are forced to buy stuff, not because you want it, but because otherwise the money will evaporate in between your fingers. And once you run out of it, you just indebt yourself, to the point that you become the slave of the bankers.

Not a good idea, yet the latter is exactly how our current economy works


As soon as someone has excess cash, it will affect their spending.  The marginal amount applied to any real product will cause its price to rise regardless of changes in quality.

Prices send their own signals.
Excess cash, how? When investing is discouraged, they don't have excess cash, they have excess debt.

If 60% of population buys with loaned money from credit cards, how are they going to see that, if their credit leverage will just rise.

With 1% collateral its easy to run a debt scheme for a long time.

Let's say you got 1$, and you spend 100$ on a 1% collateral scheme. Once you run our of the 100$, chances are that your wage will increase *cough by minimum wage*, to 2$ so you  can access another 100$, then you spend that other 100$, your collateral increases again, and you gain access again and again.

It will take many years for the interest rate to compound to the point where interest rate > new loan , so the risk of default is small, and this scheme can run for many years.

Nobody will realize inflation, yet, they will actually cheer for it, because it erodes their debt.

What an upside down world is this, but this is exactly what is happening now. People pay off 1 debt with another one and enslave themselves to the CB.

Most consumption is done by the rich, and the poor more or less follow their lead except when they're offered greater amounts of credit.

The rich respond immediately to all changes in the supply of money.  The lower classes follow.

That is not true, rich people are more investors, and loaners, than consumers. They give out their money in loans to the poor, and the poor pays the interest back to them. So while rich people get richer , poor people get poorer. Simple as that.
2230  Economy / Economics / Re: Price inflation =/= Monetary inflation , but why do CB use the CPI data then? on: February 28, 2015, 03:10:44 AM
Trying to learn how existing monetary system works is a waste of time. It is much easier to just start a new monetary system with opposite set of rules and see the difference

Well there is only 1 way a monetary system can work, by the root essence of economics and by the basic laws of it.

Smithians and Austrian economists are the sound economics based on common sense and the basis of bartering economics, supply & demand, market behaviour based on participants, because economics is a social science based on people's characteristics, which doesnt change unless you do a huge genetic modification on them.

So all these new theories like Keynesians and Monetarists, Collectivists, are bullshit. Economics was invented way back in the Ancient Greek democratic era and established in the 1700-1800 years.

Everything that came after it was only a propaganda version of it, a spinoff to suit the current political culture.

Marxists,Leftists,Socialists favour Collectivist economics
Fascists and Authoritarians favour Keynesianism
Liberals and Conservatives favour a Slithly freer version Monetarism

But in general they are all wrong, and the true economics is the one layed down by the Smithians.

So there is only 1 true monetary system, however Keynesian central bankers can lie about common sense, and fool idiots that raising prices are good for one's wallet when common sense say's otherwise.

The innovation bitcoin brings is that nobody can lie here and nobody can conceal data here, you can exactly know the monetary supply, you can exactly know the hashrate & difficulty -> thus calculate inflation, you can exactly know the price of it and the velocity of it, and calculate demand.

All essential info is public and cannot be concealed and faked.

While in the establishment economy, this is all hidden, concealed, manipulated or totally modified, so that investors are confused and will bet on both outcomes, so that market makers can hedge themselves out of it.
2231  Economy / Economics / Re: Price inflation =/= Monetary inflation , but why do CB use the CPI data then? on: February 28, 2015, 12:50:23 AM
Anybody else wants to address this conversation, it's very important to discuss this guys, so please join us!  Smiley
2232  Economy / Economics / Re: Price inflation =/= Monetary inflation , but why do CB use the CPI data then? on: February 26, 2015, 07:56:42 PM
.....


If terms are redefined without general understanding, words lose their meaning.

They are talking about price inflation.

The Fed does not use the CPI to quantify price inflation.  They use the PCE.

I see, but many CB other than the FED do use the CPI, and also many economists use it in their works aswell, when its obvious that it's a useless number.


.....


Two assumptions are implied: both Q and V were held constant.  If the V/Q quotient also increased, there would be even higher inflation.  If they decreased, there would be smaller inflation and even deflation depending upon the extent.


I`m skeptic, i`m not sure if the quantity theory of money is correct, i`m not a monetarist. It just seems common sense to me that it doesnt matter what people believe to be true when it's not true.

You can create artificial scarcity by making people spend faster, but if the underlying numbers are not corresponding to reality, you just created a fake bubble that will pop out (unless you keep it artificially pumped as it is now with 99.9% of derivatives).

I`m not sure if monetarism is correct.


....

The price inflation would be as immediate as the new circulation of the newly issued currency.

The Fed does not try to determine the supply of money relative to the price level.  They approximately guess with the Fed funds rate relative to inflation.  It is suboptimal to determining M that satisfies constant P.

Yes it is, but if the information is hidden, then it needs time to trickle down to the ordinary people.

It will need price discovery, and every transaction will adjust itself based on the previous inputs. People will sense the devaluation in their guts, so the price discovery method will eventually reflect the fair price, but this process can last years, if it's well hidden.

See if the numbers say 1 thing (reality) and people believe other, thant that will just create a bubble, and many people will lose money or overpay for things, where as the crooks who know the real value of stuff, can use valuation tehniques to do insider trading.

For example they know that the price of eggs (fair price) is 2J, but the average guy thinks its 1J, so they just buy them all at 1J, and once the guys find out the fair price is actually 2J, he will sell it, and thus by insider info he can profit.

Probably they use this tehnique in the derivative markets.


...


It's likely that quality would immediately drop, but it's more likely that most of the effect would be an increase in the general price level because products produced are relatively fixed over short time periods.

Inflation will always show no matter what the configuration of spending.

Not necesarly, because if entepreneours are fooled, and they are hesitant to increase wages, than nobody will buy at higher prices (stagflation), so shopkeepers and other vendors would have to cheat the consumer by offering less for the same price.

It all depends on consumer sentiment, people are dumb and they dont realize they buy 195 grams of cornflakes for the same price as 200 grams of cornflakes before. Nobody looks at the "quantity" numbers such as kilograms, grams, or pounds whatever.

Or they decrease the quality, which is even more hidden, they add soybeans into the meat.

Have you eaten sausages before? I swear the quality of it decreases year-to-year, they add more and more additives and it contains less meat. Some say they even add rat-meat to it.

So put aside conspiracies, the quality can be very easily hidden, and it can trick consumers easily.

Because consumers are dumb, they only see that prices increase, so they only shop in the store where its cheaper. And there is only 2 way of selling cheaper food: either you decrease the quality of it, which is hardly noticable, or you cheat the sales tax, which is more riskier.

So by just staying ahead of your competitors by offering to sell less quality food for less price than your competitors in an inflationary enviroment, you attract more people, than by increasing the price.

Trust me i know this from experience. Shrinkflation is more efficient, than to let prices rise.

+ Retail consumers (90% of economy) , dont really know the Wholesale prices, so they are the last people where the information of prices goes.


......

Inflation is never hidden.  You can calculate your own price index on the products you purchase to approximate the total inflation level.

None can hide from the problem that is always and everywhere monetary, general price change.

Of course it is, read previous reply. If everyone sells at the same price, but sell lesser quality products, then the inflation can be forever hidden, and suddenly people wake up that the quality of products is sub-human.

Falling houses because they used less and less cement in the walls, people die of food poisoning because the sausage contained poisonous ingredients that were cheaper on the black market, then normal ingredients, etc etc

It's always nice to theoritize inflation, but once those academic punks go out in the real world, they see all their theories failing, because reality is far from their theories (i`m talking about Keynesians, and Monetarists aswell here).

2233  Economy / Economics / Price inflation =/= Monetary inflation , but why do CB use the CPI data then? on: February 26, 2015, 07:08:20 PM
Price inflation=The rise of prices in % in a given period of time (The term is really bogus, it should be "price increase" because prices actually dont inflate, they increase or decrease)

Monetary inflation= The expansion of the money supply in an economy

So to an amateur the 2 concepts look the same:

Let's take a simple example: Joe is the king of Joeania, and he issued a currency named "J". He issued 100 units of J, to his subjects. And thus the average price of eggs in his kingdom costs 1 J. One day, Joe decides to print 100 more units of J, thus expanding the money supply to 200 J, now after the subjects discover this action, which in his kingdom is transparent, he announces every monetary policy to the public, the price of eggs increases to 2J, not because the eggs are worth more, but because the purchasing power of J just halved, thus the new 2J is actually worth only 1J of before the expansion, so the value is the same, but the reference, the currency has changed.

So in that example above, once the monetary inflation happened (printing 100J, doubling the supply), the price of eggs immediately doubled. So to an amateur, the PRICE INFLATION and the MONETARY INFLATION look identical.

But in reality they are as far from being equal as a cow is not equal to a chicken.In theory, they might look identical, and many economists think they are, but they are not

-------------------------

So what if Joe decides not to reveal that he increased the monetary supply? Then his subjects would find out the devaluation of the currency much later, when the taxmen would come and ask for double taxes, so the entepreneours would have to pay double salary to people, and the entepreneour would purchase his inventory of goods aswell for double price from his partners, and the inflation would tricke down much slower into the economy.
Even though the Central Bankers in Joeania would immediately know that the J's purchasing power is halved, the subjects would only know it on a longer period of time, which could be even years.

But this is just a transparency issue (which most CB don't have, for example the US. FED hides the M3 numbers, I wonder why  Roll Eyes)

But let's pretend that CB are honest and transparent, which is a huge assumption, but just for the sake of example let's pretend.

-------------------------

So even if the CB is honest and announces the monetary expansion immediately, what if the egg seller in Joeania decides to not increase the prices, but rather decrease the quality of eggs supplied. He will sell his eggs for 1J, but he will sell rotten eggs too in his basket, or he will just fire a few workers on his egg farm, decreasing it's cost, and make the rest of his employees work harder for the same wage, thus he can now afford to sell the eggs for 1J, but actually it's not just that his producing cost halved, but he even makes more profit than before if we were to compare his income and cost to a 3rd party currency.

This process is called "shrinkflation".

So even thought the price doesn't increase, just by laying off a few workers, or decreasing the quality or quantity of the products, the inflation can be hidden.

--------------------

With the processes above, we can hide the inflation in the unemployed numbers, the inventory orders numbers and in the product itself, weather we decrease the quality of the product, replace few ingredients with cheaper ones, or just plain decrease the quantity of it, THE CPI numbers remain the same, but the inflation will rise!

Also the unemployed numbers can be hidden even further by just, not counting the unemployed persons after they are not eligible for subsidy/welfare anymore. They didnt found a job, but they didnt applied for welfare, so they are technically employed according to the governments.

So with these techniques, the inflation can be so well hidden, that only Central Banks know it really!
(USD official inflation rate ~0.7%, when in reality its more around 6%)

So if this is the case, and it is, then why the fuck do Central Bankers use the CPI (Consumer Price Index) or CPE numbers to estimate the inflation because they are useless bullshit and wrong information?

The only way to know the real inflation is to just look at the M3 numbers (Oh but that is hidden by the FED, and not published anymore since 2006, geez I wonder why?  Roll Eyes)
2234  Economy / Digital goods / Re: Naked pictures of my wife, please help me on: February 26, 2015, 03:57:28 PM
I smell scam here.

Why not ask for money from socialists? Those are everywhere, i bet you get them in your country too.

Or, if you live in a 100% capitalist country (which i doubt there exists unfortunately Cry) , then sell some real items: clothes, furniture, home tools, electronic equipment. Everyone has those in his house, and it sells for much more than 2$.

So yeah, either a scam or a very bad idea.
2235  Economy / Digital goods / Re: ●♦◊ GET FREE SOFTWARES AND SELL IT FOR MONEY! ◊♦● on: February 26, 2015, 03:53:04 PM
Ok guys tell me on which software should I work next. If you got any feature requests tell me please and i`ll do it for free!

Thanks!  Smiley
2236  Economy / Digital goods / Re: ●●● Selling a Faucet APP source code in C#●●● on: February 25, 2015, 10:10:36 PM

Ok, I think I get the idea now. I personally have no knowledge of C# so that would be an issue. Thanks!

Thats not a problem, however to be honest the current version has some vulnerabilities, so without fixing those first it cannot be run safely, as thieves could hack it just as they stole 0.001 BTC from me.

And to fix those bugs you need C# skills.


However, i have now resumed working on it and i`ll make it server sided with a server + client file, so that 99% of hacking vulnerabilities to be eliminated.

So once the server sided version comes out, you can than host it as-it is, with only changing the ads inside and your api keys, and it will be ready to run, and that can be done by anyone, and i`ll assist you with that, if you require.

So for now either developers with c# skills can buy the software at a lower price and fix it themselves, or wait until I fix it and then buy it at a higher price.

Good luck!
2237  Economy / Digital goods / Re: ●♦◊ GET FREE SOFTWARES AND SELL IT FOR MONEY! ◊♦● on: February 25, 2015, 09:15:31 PM
Bitcoinstats v1.5 i just downloaded that software, you work is really good,
nice job keep it up.

Thanks man, i appreciate feedback.

Let me know if it lacks any features or if you got any ideas how to improve it, and i`ll add it in the next update.
2238  Economy / Digital goods / Re: ●♦◊ GET FREE SOFTWARES AND SELL IT FOR MONEY! ◊♦● on: February 25, 2015, 09:05:00 PM
Due to many people downloading the Bitcoinstats 1.4 software, i thought I update it, because people do like it.

So here is Bitcoinstats v1.5

Difference:

Bitcoinstats 1.4

Bitcoinstats 1.5

Changelog:
■ Fixed the load speed, now all information retrieves are done with JSON api, so the load time will be considerably faster. In previous versions "get" methods were used and webpage readers to get the data, which were inneficient and slow.
■ Added Network Hashpower info, now you can check the total hashpower of the BTC network
■ Added BTC/GBP, BTC/JPY prices too
■ Added a red/green/blue triangle that shows that the new price increased, decreased or stayed the same vs previous price
■ Changed the theme colors, the previous version's green theme was probably a little annoying so i changed it to a smooth black color
■ Timer changed to 10 seconds instead of 30, and with the new JSON API retrieve data stream technology its much more faster still.
■ Removed the progress bar and added a chart in the top-right corner instead, to show how much % of bitcoins left to be mined
■ All known bugs and crashes fixed, and loading speed is now super fast!

The new version can be downloaded at POST #1.

Enjoy!
2239  Economy / Digital goods / Re: ●●● Selling a Faucet APP source code in C#●●● on: February 24, 2015, 01:19:42 PM
How would I use a desktop faucet app? Perhaps on-site location?

You would not use it, others would.

You change all the banner ads and popup ads, to your ads (adsense, a-ads whatever). Then after somebody uses the software, you get impressions/clicks to your ads.

They can cashout their earnings to faucetbox, the same place where you would earn. So if you use a-ads for example, you can directly make it pay to your faucetbox account, from where peoople will withdraw their portion.

So let's say a-ads pays you 50k satoshi/ day/person, and you give out 25k satoshi to that person and keep 25k for yourself as profit.

You just setup the banners/popups, host the file on a website, from where people would download it, or make a thread here on this forum. Then people use it, they get 25k satoshi for their daily work, deposited to their personal faucetbox where they withdraw, and you get 50k satoshi (from which they get 25k), to the faucet's faucetbox account.

So you just get people to write captcha, and if you make a net profit of 25k satoshi/day with lets say 100 active members thats already 0.025 BTC/day or 0.75 BTC/month. It can make you a nice income of 184$ /month.

And you withdraw that profit from the faucet's faucetbox account to your personal wallet!

So you get the idea? If not then add me on skype, and if you are interested buying it, we can discuss it further there.

Skype: "Green Stox" or "green.stox" depends how you find me there.

2240  Economy / Digital goods / Re: ●●● Selling a Faucet APP source code in C#●●● on: February 23, 2015, 11:07:51 PM

no one is trolling here , now you have made things clear probabely nice captchs i hope you get some buyers

Ok sorry about it, i thought people come here to troll.

Anyway i updated post #1 and specified it more.

You can buy it too, for more info contact me on skype "Green Stox" or "green.stox". Good luck!
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