i draw the conclusion that it takes months to set up mining farms in ukraine
i draw the conclusion that any tax policy, would results in actual tax income.. the following year, not this week
i draw the conclusion when asic farms paying electric. the utility company doesnt pay the tax to treasury until financial year end
i draw the conclusion that Ukraine gov' has many options via IMF/neighbouring trade deals to pay its own defence. if needed this week.
i draw the conclusion that it takes months to buy/build military vehicles/weapons
i draw the conclusion that it takes months to train up soldiers

in short a bitcoin donation today will not result in an extra soldier tonight.

i draw the conclusion that anyone trying a "bitcoin beg" for donations is not the Ukraine government treasury officer. but some hapless douche trying to get personally rich from some event.

i draw the conclusion that Ukraine government allowing more currency options is just the government wanting to offer more freedoms to its citizens to hedge against different currencies. EG be less reliant on russian currency for cross border trades
yep. you may not hear it in western news, but even today ukraine and russia still do trade deals every day

EG instead of buying russian currency to move funds to russia people can buy bitcoin and send bitcoin to russia and let the russians convert to russian currency at their end. thus ukraine doesnt have to touch russian currency as much.

imagine forex reserves like
UAH:   1,000,000,000 <>2,870,000,000    :RUB    (rate 1uah=2.87rub)

by having less need for 1000m UAH in reserve for swaps.
UAH:   950 <>2870    :RUB    (rate 1uah=3.02rub)
UAH:   900 <>2870    :RUB    (rate 1uah=3.18rub)
UAH:   850 <>2870    :RUB    (rate 1uah=3.38rub)
ukraine can affect the forex rate of uah to rub

..
most of this 'drama' is not actually russia vs ukraine.
its actually the EU/nato not doing much to help out ukraine.
EU dont want to support eastern ukraine because of the 'pro-russian' ukraine citizens in eastern ukraine. and EU not wanting to be part of helping out 'pro russions'.
and also with ukraine wanting to join nato. but again nato is less than obliging because of the eastern region of the ukraine.

its more so that the EU/nato would prefer that eastern ukraine to go 'full russian' and have russia just take the territory into russian occupation so that whats left of ukraine is NOT pro russian, which has led to media drumming up the idea that putin will take eastern ukraine over

what is dollar backed by?...
.. oh yea i remember now. nothing but more paper.

i can destroy a bank note with a match, but no one can bruteforce my bitcoin on the network.
bitcoin is backed by the expensive effort of securing the network via mining. ($37k-$87k depending on region) where the market price sits somewhere inbetween depending on circumstances of peoples sentiments of value within the range

much like gold value is backed by the fact that it doesnt cost $2 to mine an ounce but depending on region it costs $900-$2000 to mine an ounce. with the market price sitting somewhere inbetween depending on circumstances of peoples sentiments of value within the range

point is the government has no red button on the fiat network. it has an email to the fund custodian with a court order because regulations make it easier then needing a swat team to knock on doors of a fund custodian.. but in both cases(btc/fiat) the government can get the fund custodian to never make a transaction by coming into contact with the fund holder.

government do not need a network red stop button, they always have got the fund holders to not transact under fear of punishment

too many people think the pentagon/sec has a fiat network red button.. they dont.
bitcoins main safeguard is not the protocol the main safeguard is the pseudonymity of people not revealing what address they have keys for

again be cautious of funds you hold, bitcoin can stop hackers from brute forcing the network. but it doesnt stop someone brute forcing your homes front door


comparing bitcoins lack of a network red button vs fiat court order threatening a fund custodian.. is 2 different methods..
if you want to compare same methods
a) fiat red button, vs bitcoin red button... government has no red button for both..
b) fiat coerce fund holder with court threat, vs btc coerce fund holder with court threat.. the government can do both.

but you are only more safe in bitcoin if you stay anonymous(not be lazy / lax about your personal info.)
as seen by the fear of the convoy organisers who had to absolve themselves of responsibility as they realised they are too publicly known.
as seen by the bitfinex thieving couple that got caught last week
as seen by many examples of people that think bitcoin is so safe they can be lazy about personal privacy and security as they wrongly think bitcoin is untouchable in all circumstances.

its not, so still be careful

in a 4 of 4 multisig. the funds can be stopped. just arrest one of the key holders. he cant sign. meaning the funds cant move. interrogate him until he discloses the other 3

its the same government tactic just wrapped in a swat vest instead of a SEC vest

whether its fiat or bitcoin. the network is not the flaw. its the key holders at the corners.

but government doesnt "stop" a transaction..

government sends a court order request to a bank service telling the bank service not to make a transaction or get penalised if they do.

there is no "red button" thats connected directly to a SWIFT(international wire), RTGS(fedwire('wire transfer')), .. its always a case where 'government' get the authorising fund holder to not make a transaction. just with regulation. it only takes the equivalent of a formal email rather than a swat team

take away the TV. take away the western media.
and you will see no bullet has been fired between ukraine and russia..
yet every day people in america cross state lines to shoot out rival gangs..

america has more tension.

the whole Russia/ukraine might seem a little tense if you live within 5 miles of the border. (more wonder/nervous than fear) but if you live 50 miles away.. its just another ordinary day. people go to work, people play music, games, have social lives. do normal things. politics and industry continue.

just because there is some political tension. does not mean industry stops. its not like peoples toilets dont flush because they turned off the water utility industry... life goes on, lights still work, toilets still flush

there are loads of Slavic social media platforms. some with good translations. its easy to talk to people and tell them about how they are feeling day to day. .. most are just doing the norm

when 'capitol hill' was being breached in washington. do you think people in arlington, alexandrine just dropped everything.. nah, they went to work as usual
take the wars in iraq and Afghanistan.. farmers still farmed. retailers still sold goods.
all they done was not be within 5 miles of the 'danger zone'

government cant stop a bitcoin transaction thats already sent. but if they know the identity of the current fund key holders. then governments can stop the key holders from making a transaction.. its called handcuffs.

the bitfinex thieves were not able to move their 90k stash when there was a knock at the door

if they can find where you put your key. they can come after the key. or handcuff the keyholder.

yes its possible to have a 3of4 multisig.. and hope you find out which 1 of the 4 key holders got arrested first when they get arrested. to have time for the other 3 keyholders to move the stash to new people.. before the other 3 get a 'knock and enter'
.. but you have to HOPE that S.W.A.T dont do a synchronised 'knock and enter' on all 4 people at same time. and you better have organised the next 4 people to be ready to take control before you hear a knock.

i personally am a bitcoin maximalist. but im not a wishful dreamer.
bitcoin is great. no one can touch your coins without the keys..  ..but be prepared and aware of the points of failure about how the keys can be found.
they cant brute force the blockchain for your coin. but they can bruteforce your front door, PC, devices, and interrogate you under punishment of prison for staying quiet

9 hours ago. the 'unknown multisig keyholders'
consolidated 14.679btc to this address:
bc1q42t9dhpgc6du9pjmdkvxvmke82fl34jadqaxtq

then 10 minutes later split it up into 101 addresses.. where
it moved
100 addresses of amounts of 0.004
            ~7 addresses of 0.004 were (since spent)
            93 addresses of amounts of 0.004(remain unspent at time of post)
14.279 remaining which which went to:
bc1qa04luw7uqfurrcu4qjsc8nvlg9eddu5ye4p447

it then 10 minutes later
bc1qa04luw7uqfurrcu4qjsc8nvlg9eddu5ye4p447
split up into 101 addresses.. where
1 address of 0.279
bc1qflmltfkkyjd07x6cjq7l62a3wc23z8nntav4zp
100 addresses of amounts of 0.14
where by
~7 of the 100 addresses of 0.14 and the ~7 of the previous splits of 0.004 in last paragraph consolidated into little groups
examples like:
3NNYf4XvBufLNrWMaA19V6pxG3WqSvP68K - 0.144
which appears to be coinbase deposit address

then half a dozen 0.144 - unspent(as time of posting)
bc1qjd9245dv0jzfqu0z9f2kxsltj5hjfzc3a7wwzc
bc1qmxpqdlfe4fmdge9yasxwt4ujuj288mnzwcp8rr
bc1qs63v2vznlx0fq9te2jq85ft0wrnx0hplluhmje
bc1qxagk2r5xzszz528e5l6dvmptca6c09pk6ckukq
bc1qjd9245dv0jzfqu0z9f2kxsltj5hjfzc3a7wwzc
bc1qfjns4tjz39leydh4urtlc8fx7z69mxumdmz9q7
bc1qqw8mvxncl7uhehfw97er93k4zchhkvd87swk97

leaving 13btc unspent in ~ in 93 addresses of 0.14 and 93 addresses of 0.004

'tallycoin' didnt manage a privkey. they are just a website where people type in a public address. a target to achieve. and a title for the campaign.

tallycoin just block 'explores' the public address and tally's the total transactions put into the address as a display on the website. without actually having to know the privkey.

the fundraisers (actual privkey owners) had the keys to ~20.6 btc upto valentines day. and they moved the coin to ~3dozen other keys presumed to now be owned by 'unknown people in a group of multisigs'

where these new 'unknown people' have the keys to move the coins split over 3dozen addresses.

..
as for the government.. much like publicising a FBI 'most wanted' watch list of terrorist suspects. the government also now has a bitcoin address suspect watch list. which all exchanges that are (regulated) money service businesses have to not only KYC their customers but also..  to watch any donations coming into those exchanges and if its one of these "watchlist" suspect taints, report details of what account is associated with such suspect deposit.

its then up to the report to describe events, also note value deposited, value already in account, trade history, ip, email and ofcourse the KYC ID. and send this report to the government. there is no government, not even in china, that spies on every account(they dont have the ability nor manpower to do so). they rely on regulated businesses reporting SUSPECT customers or be punished if found to have failed to report on something that should have been reported. not every account is sent to government. just suspect accounts

its then upto the government to read the suspect report and to decide what actions need to be taken. such as to order the exchange:
to freeze the account completely
not offer any service to the account user apart from withdrawal of same format currency via same method as deposit
restrict some services/features of the exchange
allow transactions/trade/exchange/withdrawal by other means to continue.

um, no.
Proof of work. is not the consensus. its just the proof of expense of hard work for formulating a difficult ID for a block of data. that is all.
blockchains can use many algo's(proofs) for the hardening of the ID
the ID identifies the data within. thus any changes to the data changes the ID. so making it expensive to make an ID makes it expensive to change the data

PoW is just the most expensive proven method of hardening batch of data. making it multiply the expense the further you go back to change it and then rush forward by 5 blocks (6 total) now to overtake the network
                    
good network     gA           gB           gC           gD           gE           gF
malicious user    gA        bA        bB        bC        bD         bE        bF
to get bG to be seen before gG to then make everyone adopt bA bB bC bD dE bF and drop gA gB gC gD gE.. malicious user has to be faster than the entire good network just to be able to work on his bA variant and then catch back up and overtake ~6 blocks later
which is why they say 6 confirms is deemed safe.(someone has to be considerable even faster then good network for less than 6 confirms)

but he cant change the rules. or algo. all he can achieve is changing the data in the blocks
(remove/change transactions in A B C D E F)

consensus and consensus changes is not determined by PoW. PoW is just to make it expensive to change the transaction order (unspend an already spent transactions). consensus determins what rules are implied. where one rule is that it can use PoW. but consensus change could(but shouldnt) decide to change to a different Po?. .. the PoW does not determine consensus. consensus determines PoW

the consensus. is a bunch of rules all users should equally follow. where by anyone not following the rules . ends up outside the network.
because anyone not following the rules is just making THEMSELF ignorant to the rules/data and making only themselves blind to the network

if bA contained weird data breaking the rules the good network would reject it. making malicious users efforts for nothing.
all malicious user can do is just change which transactions are included in a block. where the selection has to still fit within the rules

there is a process to undo blocks. but all you can achieve from this is changing what transactions to remove/include in new block list.
PoW just makes it too expensive to attempt it.
EG to do the edit, it costs $200k to solve a block and requires 6 blocks ($1.2m) then overtake the network to get people to follow your chain of blocks
why remove your $3 coffee purchase from the chain if its going to cost you $1.2m to get it seen as no longer on the majority chain

thus its not worth changing things for a $3 refund.again hense why 6confirms are safe for value upto $1.2mill

to change the rules. well no single person can try that. as it requires the majority collectively to follow any new rules for that new rule to be accepted

the consensus rules are HARD strict about whats valid. the consensus of HARD rules only change when majority all agree. and its then determined safe to activate a new rule, and thus everyone follow the new rule after an agreed event.. any minority disagreement means the minority are rejected. the rules only become enforced when its a known point that majority want the new rules and deemed safe to activate a new rule because its deemed safe that majority will be able to follow the new rules.
without majority. there is no point trying new rules because if only a minority are following. then that minority will just get rejected by the majority following normal rules.
some soft rules can be changed without controversy(like blindly accepting a transaction of unknown format) but that just makes the user that does not understand the format blindly accept something unchecked. which makes them waste their effort pretending to be a full validator/checker

this is not about getting fiat holders to convert to btc to then pay tax..
this is about btc holders paying tax without themselves needing to convert to fiat first

i believe[cynically] the next step.. once btc payment methods are available.. would be that the state then demands a tax on crypto. where by as soon as a person makes yearly 'gains'(year end valuation increase) they are supposed to pay tax on those gains in btc for that year.

rather then the old way of waiting for the person to convert to fiat, where its only then declared as gains once they declare they have extra fiat
old way: (hoarding coin for 5 years=no fiat gains for 4 years 11month 27days)

its not about them not disclosing partnerships.
its that the partners are infact themselves. trading within their own platform (as both customer and service) which has prompted an investigation into possible 'insider trading'

EG if left arm tells right arm that they are going to clap their hands. together they can make alot of noise(profit) knowing when to clap together
       [exchange]
        /     |     \
[pfm]  [pfm]   [pfm]
  / \       / \       / \
[c] [c] [c] [c] [c] [c]
normally an exchange doesnt know what a portfolio manager[pfm] is about to do on a market in 1seconds time
normally a portfolio manager[pfm] doesnt know what a customer[c] is about to request in 1seconds time

but what if
      [exchange] -- [pfm]
        /     |    
[pfm]  [pfm]  
  / \       / \    
[c] [c] [c] [c]
exchange and pfm are the same 'entity' and have no real customers in that branch/arm

the fundraiders.. oops i mean fundraisers.. (now passed to 'unknown key holders' in a multisig) can still pass bitcoins direct to truckers who give the keyholders bitcoin addresses. . then the truckers can find their own methods of converting.

supposedly the fundrai?ers say '20% of funds will be put onto a hardware wallet for immediate needs' which translates to.. 'we wont hand out 80% of funds immediately'. yet even the 20% has not been distributed out immediately..

all of this stems not from the convoy itself. but mainly the original fundrai?ers had ties to political ideologies of wanting to separate from the french controlled eastern canada to want nationalisation by the british colonial western canada.

the original fundrai?ers know the identities of the new key holders. so government can court order the original fundrai?ers to disclose the new keyholder identities.. should the government decide to take that course of action

in short..
fundrai?ers and new key holders:
if you were at the convoy talking to truckers you must know how they want to get contacted/paid. as part of your job was to finance the truckers.
.. that was the whole point of your role!..SO PAY THEM. you should have already known how to communicate with the truckers already to get their payment method and/or bitcoin address. contact them now to get a bitcoin address.. to PAY THEM.. so no excuses. PAY THEM.

absolve your responsibilities of the funds by paying the the truckers. not hiding behind anonymity and excuses of inability to exchange. just pay the truckers, and be done with it

keyholders, you are only at risk of court orders to hand funds to government. if you continue to hold the funds. so pay the truckers. absolve yourself. then let the government run around trying to find all the truckers(if government should choose to).

people in china prefer to use wechatpay and alipay (both payment apps has over 1bill users each) because using visacard/mastercard come with a 2%/4% fee, where as the wechat/alipay are 0% fee within their ecosystems and 0.1% to withdraw out of those apps

you will find with any payment system when they start to raise the fee's people try to find a new payment system to use thats cheaper
thats even the same in crypto economy

people in europe/america moved away from 'topping up' debit cards and shifted to paypal when fee's went up, then when paypal fee's went up they shifted to venmo. then bitcoin. and now altcoins/altnets.

the reason people invest(asset class) instead of spend(currency payment) bitcoin is because the fee's have made it less useful as a daily spend payment system. there are many people tirelessly trying too hard to change bitcoin to be less useful as a payment system for daily spend.

---

addressing the coercion/propaganda stuff.. hinting at stuff like these words

the whole media narrative that chinese government controls all currency, are watching everything, everyone has to use one system.. is FALSE..
hints that humans have bad experience using alternative to government options is also false. people prefer to do favours for others in services of kindness and favours,.. doing favours, bartering, paying someone in food/alcohol(in other ways) for helping each other out IS HUMAN NATURE

---

its western propaganda from visa/mastercard/western politics getting angry that they cant grab 1.4 billion people in a community, so they want to present the "china is bad/broken" narrative. much like some altcoin/altnet want to say bitcoin is bad/broken..

as for the narrative that china is the most surveillance place.. um no. false again
based on camera's per city:
Beijing, China – 1,150,000 cameras for 20,896,820 people = 55.03 cameras per 1,000 people
Shanghai, China – 1,000,000 cameras for 27,795,702 people = 35.98 cameras per 1,000 people
London, England – 691,000 cameras for 9,425,622 people = 73.31 cameras per 1,000 people

yea at first glance it looks like "china is bad".. but look at the camera's per population.. its actually london that is watching more people

based on camera's per physical square mile
Delhi, India - 1826.58 cameras per square mile
London, England - 1138.48 cameras per square mile
Chennai, India - 609.92 cameras per square mile
..
Shanghai, China - 408.49 cameras per square mile
..
New york, US - 193.72 cameras per square mile
Beijing, China – 181.49 cameras per square mile

beijing is not even in the top 14 based on cameras per square mile, heck even NY has more cameras per mile than beijing

now why would western media and western controlled payment services like visacard not like china and want to present it as controlling. whilst unsurprisingly, visacard want to control the eastern market.. hmm

the pretence that china has only 1 payment system and its 'controlled by government' is false narrative/propaganda
its actually that there are many payment systems available. but only one of those many are controlled by government(unionpay)

there are MANY payment systems and methods in china.
alipay, wechatpay, tenpay, QQpay unionpay, jdpay, applepay, bestpay, huaweipay

.. company tencent (offering services in the form of tenpay wechatpay, QQpay) is an multinational technology and entertainment company that does gaming, movies and payment services. its not "the government"

the cloud service had spreadsheets of the exchanges they used, login details. market order logs, and account statuses like "frozen" where by authorities already froze/seized some of the 25k split they did move..
but also the cloud service also had a file containing the private key of the 90k stash that didnt move for 5 years.
so the authorities seized it all

only a small subset (maybe $1m worth) actually got through and spent by the couple over the 5 years.
authorities have seized more then 90k btc but less than 119k btc

another way to word it.
28million households get an average of £76.30 each home in saver interest
1million bank workers in the entire banking sector. are getting £4,000 bonus average each

but that £4bill.. thats only a small % point of how many billions they are custodians of
UK banks hold ~ 2,136,428,000,000 in UK 'savers' accounts (£2.1trillion)
even if 28mill savers only got 0.1% (£2.1bill)
even if 1m bank employees are getting a 0.2% (£4b)

0.1 or 0.2 is small amount considering the vastness of whats held

however. in more significant news
UK electric/energy companies are raising the price of peoples electric bills by many many % points.. upto 30% rate hike in many cases. forcing UK government to shell out billions in funds to compensate people (council tax discount and stuff)
£200 compensation/discount for 28m households = £5,600,000,000 (£5.6bill)

even though energy companies made mega profit last year.
..
in short. businesses profit even if they are hurting their customers. all because businesses know governments will compensate

..
government should ban banker bonuses and claw back that £4b profit as a repayment to gov for the bailout. then the gov can then pay that £4b to households(£142each) thanks to the banks. which can help cover the energy price hike without using tax treasury money from citizens

"bitcoin" the protocol/blockchain is not controlled by central entity
its not actually that easy for the government to just say "tomorrow, we stop the dollar(entire economy)"
much like your saying government "cant stop bitcoin(entire protocol)"

but then again gofundme does not control the entire FIAT economy. but does control a small subset amount of fiat put into its control.

much like the bitcoin 'fundraisers' dont control the whole protocol. but do control a subset amount of bitcoin

a government 'could' find that organisation and tell them to stop. whether its fiat or bitcoin(hand cuffs exist in the real world)

this is why the 'organisation' doing the bitcoin fundraiser moved the funds out of their control late in the day of the 14th. and is now said to be in the hands of an 'unknown group of trustees' because they realised that upto valentines day, the bitcoin fundraising organisation realised they were a central point of failure due to being publicly known.
yep during the fundraising campaign. the government could have done something with a simple knock at their doors and some handcuffs

dont confuse the censorship resistance of entire protocol, vs the semi-censorship resistance pseudonymous natures of allotments of coins.
after all. the bitfinex thieves got caught. silkroad got caught, mtgox ceo got in trouble,
bitcoin is not 100% unreachable by government. its just a better distance of reach than fiat is

and even now the 3 main organisers who are publicly known can be court ordered to reveal identities of the new trustees or be penalised(should government take that direction)
bitcoin does help. but its not a 100% barrier against government intervention. hand cuffs are real if you leave ID traces

as for the small subset of an amount of a currency
its not easy for government to confiscate bank notes hidden under the bed, they first have know you, knwo where you live, to break your door in, and then see dollar bills hanging out the edge of the bed/do a detailed search flipping the bed over
but then they can break your door in and just happen to see a bitcoin wallet displayed on your screen/do a detailed hard drive search

knowing an organiser. and knowing they are doing something the gov dont like the gov can court order that person/organisation(whether bitcoin or fiat)

in bitcoin there is no need to associate ID to a bitcoin address. but then its personal judgement of how much people trust someones involvement without knowing their name

much like many fiat kickstarters and gofundme, you have to trust the narrative of the plea story
many get scammed by fake campaigns in fiat.
dollar by default does not test KYC. it relies on businesses to set policy for the business to check if people using their business are real names
EG i can set up a paypal account with a fake email. and move dollar
but i cant find that many bitcoin custodian services that dont KYC anymore.. because the BUSINESS has set policy

if the bitcoin fundraiser organisation has publicly known names. the government can court order that organisation, with penalty if they refuse
bitcoin is only as good as the anonymity people keep, by avoiding using central organisations/businesses. but then that comes to then trusting unknown recipients

its why bitcoin is classed as pseudonymous rather than anonymous

there is a difference between "priced in" and "bottomline value support" increases
price is more subjective to speculative drama of emotion and temporary decisions and media hype of temporary price events.
what goes up can go down (pump and dump, hype and dip, spike and correct)
where as added value to bottomline support is more underneath the market price number. moving up at a progressive long term growth

prices can spike and correct depending on the mood and sentiment of speculators deciding which piece of news is important trade decision factor that day, and its temporary.
however the bottomline value support is based on the basic most efficient mining costs around the world absolutely no one would want to sell below because they cant even mine it any cheaper. so would rather buy coin that cheap and support the price from going below that line.

now take:el salvador
it  has a total combined electric capacity of 2gw.
and has a geothermal power plant that has a capacity of 100mw(0.1GW) that is dedicating 1.5 mw (1500kw) to bitcoin mining
this is allowing for only ~450 asics, (0.075% country cap. 1.5% power plant cap)

so small things like elsalvator going full-on in bitcoin doesnt result in much actual 'value support' of massive hashrate difference (0.049exa)
after all its not even 1% hahsrate affect, nor 0.1%, but more like a 0.026% effect
(at current bottom line value of ~$37k, it translates to about $9.62 value support added. so not even noticeable difference.)
yes the media hype might have caused some price speculation last year when it was first announced. but it didnt even move the needle of a increased value support, to support the temporary price drama media hype, thus the price corrected after the hype

but somewhere like russia which has a capacity of 220GW for all uses..52GW renewable
if russia dedicates 1.5% of all its renewable capacity to bitcoin mining(0.78gw) that would add 27.3exahash to the mining competition. which is a 14% bump at current mining competition
(note: im using a high estimate of dedication of 1.5% of all renewable russian power plants)
(note: there's no announcement of an actual figure for dedicating to mining.. so expect 14% to be optimistic top)
(note: no mining farm set up yet. so expect 14% be alot less by the time things happen)

at the moment with a baseline mining cost (bottomline value support) of ~$37k right now, that can turn into $42k bottom line support
(see notes above for emphasis)
yes it can cause more temporary speculative price drama of volatile spikes and dips. but the effect, if russia was to follow a 1.5% renewable dedication, is only at most, 14%max.. which would be less of a bottomline support % as time moves on

so dont expect a massive "priced in" effect of actual value support, but do expect some media hype causing temporary spike price drama

in short. if news hype does cause a 200% price speculation spike(new ATH). dont expect the actual value support of actual mining cost increases to equally reflect to support the 200%.

thus dont expect russia to "price-in" to any new huge sustained support value

sounds familiar.. i wonder why you ever thought up that those interested in new payment systems use coercion to try getting people to use the new system before its really ready to work for all use cases(that its being falsely advertised to achieve)...  

you know. coercion, like:
trying to limit utility growth of a legacy currency system
promoting a 'nextgen' thing as a/THE solution to legacy systems [instigated] limitation growth problems,
using people as guineapigs with coercion techniques..
bribe them with cheap fee's
make promises of its success rates that dont materialise

but yea, probably best to make sure the thing works flawlessly first in all circumstances and not only in utopian best use-case scenarios, before promoting the hell out of it and calling it a replacement for a legacy currency system

bitcoin doesnt need to change. EG it doesnt need to alter itself to fit silly things like LN. when it can just peg off a sidechain that allows more utility. either with faster blocks or bigger blocks or changing the units from sats to sub-sats.
smart contracts are gimmicky without a blockchain(network wide audit) so instead of changing bitcoin to meet some silly smart contract network of no mass audit security. bitcoin can offshoot many sidechains..
EG US.bits(american bitcoin network for 100sat denominated transactions)
EG UK.bits(british bitcoin network for 100sat denominated transactions)
where bitcoin mainnet is the IMF/world bank of many sidechains

bitcoin was meant as a currency for the unbanked.

some seen it to mean 'new cash system'(daily spend) method, others deem it as a 'asset class'(savings account) method
some see it as a base protocol for side projects

most altcoins and their side projects are just gimmicks,
yes they get viral meme trends. but they dont actually get much usage

take DOGE.
soo many memes but only 30k asics mining it.. yet bitcoin has 1.7mill asics
bitcoin is 58x more mining devices than doge(comparing most efficient asics per network)

ethereum are about to 'detonate diff bomb' to move away from PoW mining. they know they cant scale and so their coin is going to turn cheap when more people profit from a negligible passive cost of just "stake and wait"

who's going to want to pay $3k for eth on the market if they can stake for $0loss and wait X hours to form a block for:
$1.09/eth ($2.40 of pc electric for 2.2 coin(current estimate of 7% of network staking))
$15.58/eth ($34.29 of pc electric for 2.2 coin(current estimate of 100% of network staking))

no one will pay $3k/eth when they can 'stake and wait' an eth for $1.10- $15.60.
expect Ethereum price to correct down massively when it flips to PoS.

bitcoin will remain a strong network. giving it a good bases for side projects to rely on its security. yes some projects have had mega flaws and not become the "solution" presented 5 years ago. but that wont stop bitcoin from trying other things

bitcoin can create its own NFT sidechain.. its not that difficult