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6441  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: EU agrees on landmark regulation to clean up crypto ‘Wild West’ on: July 01, 2022, 11:07:18 AM
hmm "crypto asset issuers"

in short if you want to start a ICO in the EU where your company manages the pre-mine/limited progressive release and or coin/transaction validation stuff. where you as a company manage the code or updates for users..

PoW coins issued after 2023 will hit a bureaucratic brick wall. where as PoS coins get a free pass.

hmm "crypto asset providers"
well that smells and sounds like they mean exchanges and merchant tool services.. so i guess they wil need a "passport" to operate if they are accepting/servicing costumers with a PoW coin that is from a "issuer"(company managed ICO)

exchanges, say bye bye to EU customers wanting coins from an PoW ICO. much like many said bye bye to NY customers when bitlicence came in
6442  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: THIS CRASH IS DIFFERENT than previous crashes... The FEDERAL RESERVE is why.... on: July 01, 2022, 10:23:03 AM
~
its about finding the ultimate bottom.. the actual bottom cost they refuse and impossible to sell below.. . concentrating on the low/bottom
~

Alright, first off, Thank you for taking time to explain all of it with such thoroughness.

Can you please say what's in your opionion is the ultimate bottom for BTC? Yeah, I know it will be just your opinion, not a financial advice, but still it would be interesting to know your opinion on this matter.

there are alot of stuff to go through..
but the value of a possible bottom can change not as violently as the price. but the underlying value can and does change.

some examples of factors that can change it in a downward direction
EG (extreme catastrophic event scenario(unlikely))
 if all hashrate was to die off today by a majority amount, for instance back to CPU hash mining speeds. where by costs go back to pennies. it would take time for the difficulty alterations to reflect that hashrate drop meaning those remaining mining would still have costs for a long while above pennies. it wont be an overnight 'zero' effect, it would take time even in a hashrate drop of magnitude scenario

EG in reasonable presumed normal events this change happens alot less.. unless alot of people look at the same metrics and then become the cause of changing it.

EG by giving out a ultimate bottom value.. below the price.. just causes people to react.. EG
shorters think although the price is higher then that number now.. that lower number can be achieved. so they sell to put a ask in at lower price.. thus causing a new dip..

also inefficient miners react to a dip by deciding to either get efficient to compete at that new lower level.sending the value number on a new direction..
 or drop off.. which can cause more reward for the remaining asics = more profit= more selling opportunity. again causing a dump. sending the number in a different direction

..

so all i will say is based on all miners on the planet. from iceland to japan range of costs.
those in japan would love to buy coin and hate to mine it. as their costs to mine are up neat the ATH 2021 level
so buying for them is extremely cheap option.
for the most efficient miners. they are not making huge gains. there is not much margin left right now. they are mining to hold or only selling off old coins from years back that are still in high gain area.. they are not selling coins mined this year while making huge profits off them

the PRICE inbetween that is speculative is in the cheap very valuable range right now its not in the premium


so calculate the value window for yourself and just gauge where the price is in regards to a simple "is it in cheap range near bottom or is it premium in range of top". just so you have an idea of if you want to buy or not.

the answer is.. the price is not at the $70k premium and so it must be cheap.
..
as for wanting spoonfed answer to an exact bottom VALUE. for emphasis: the bottom VALUE can move. due to many factors. as soon as a number is seen by a majority.. it would in fact end up being the cause of shifting that number.
so any number given, is outdated as soon as its given.

but right now, bar any catastrophy of a major code bug or world wide power outage, etc.. the price is in the very good very cheap value range near the bottom
6443  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Grayscale’s Bitcoin Fund Reaches Record Discount After SEC Snub !!! on: July 01, 2022, 09:47:06 AM
the real snub is....
they say they give a discount to buy. but then you cant touch them for...............

and while you cant touch them they are charging you a daily fee(reducing your holdings daily). aka decreasing discount and increasing risk of loss the longer the delays go on

next snub is instead of just applying again or even making 2000 applications to really rile the SEC up and force their hand. they are going to go into appeals court,, not this month, not this season, but in 9-12 months. and so customers cant do anything with their holdings for that time because they want to blame the sec for not allowing customers to sell/exchange/dispose/get refund of the shares..(funny that, they open hand to take money but dont open hand to give it back as fast)

and the story goes if they lose the appeal they will just stall again by more legal bluff to keep customers on hold..
all while customers are seeing their holdings reduce daily..

here is the thing.. greyscale can legally just give people a refund. .. so its not really the SEC fault customers are left in waiting/stuck..

but for all new people thinking of investing at a discount. what you are investing at 35% les now. cant be touched for a year, and after a year of delay/stall.. that discount when IF you able to release wont seem so much

..
greyscale should go on a full multi direction attack if they actually wanted a chance.
reapply. create 100 sister companies all with slight variations of an application and apply apply apply

get a meeting with the SEC and sit down and actually work through the details the SEC is denying. every single word. every detail. and actually get to the crux of the holdup.

but no.. by going to appeals court they cant just sit and have meetings or communicate like other businesses because now they are on opposite sides of a legal battle (facepalm)
6444  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is bitcoin really exist? on: July 01, 2022, 12:11:20 AM
maybe he is, by the sound of the question after reading it again."are there 21 ml  scripts??"

i feel he is asking is it
a digital certificate system(cant break up certificates and there are only 21m of them),
a digital cash system(spend a bank note get back smaller denominations in return)
or
an account system(majority funds dont move and only small denominations destined to be spent go out)

to which the answer is its a digital cash system.
when you receive say 2btc.  but you have to spend that and tell the transaction the destinations of the recipient and your address to get the change back, where by the change is your new unspent transaction.

if he is asking about how does the system account for the 21m..
well it was explained in previous posts about the creation..(the initial release over time)

the auditing is in the form of the blockchain that stores all transactions that ever all happened, showing the units  movements how they are spent(divided up/spread out). and how they balance out, so no new coins can be made away from the creation(mining block coin reward rule).
where a separate database also stores a list for quick reference of the blockchain at local software level a utxoset (the current unspent transaction values), it just lists an index/glossary of the current locations of the unspent amounts, without listing their previous spending log/taint/trace/history. thus easy to use that unspent list by the software for reference instead of trying to find it in the blockchain database. when its time to spend
the system audits the blockchain and ensures no unexpected edits/changes occured. and knows how much there should be in total at any given time
6445  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: THIS CRASH IS DIFFERENT than previous crashes... The FEDERAL RESERVE is why.... on: June 30, 2022, 06:22:15 PM
hard facts major issue is that he thinks that the price he bought in at was where bitcoins supported and stable value was and that it then "crashed" unexpectedly(to him).. he thought it could/should have only gone higher.. and only ever gone higher

he does not realise prices can go up and down. its a waiting game.. not an instant win get rich quick thing..
no one gets to buy in at the perfect bottom and sell at the perfect top.. no one is that lucky. or psychic. FACT

but im going to emphasise this. he thinks that when the price was at the top he thought that was the stable supported number where the chances of crashing correcting down to the amount that it did, were very small.. not realising that the top was not supported and the chances of correcting down were significantly high chance.

what he does not realise is that the ATH was the PREMIUM .. the TOP. the temporary unexpected exception.. and that the price is now settling back down to the cheap value it should be at

he does not realise that prices are not predictable and they do go up and down.. somewhere between the top and bottom and no one can be a psychic to buy in at the perfect bottom and sell out at the perfect top. so what they do is buy in when they think its reasonable to buy in, accepting the risk:reward balance of their choice.. and WAIT, whether it be the next current cycles speculative hype(if they are lucky) or wait for the next cycle of a deflationary currency raise of the supported bottom to influence the value of the market to which then influences and brings the next cycles prices higher..  to sell.

hardfacts has the dis-illusion that when someone buys, they 'want' the price to go up after their buy. he doesnt realise there is an equal seller that 'wants' the price to go down after the sell. he doesnt realise that there are other people, thousands/millions with other price points on both sides. whereby the markets fluctuate due to this diverse mindset of many buyers and sellers sentiments at many price points between the top and bottom.

now for my funny thought part..
i think what hardfacts has got confused with. is that he was actually watching a music video when he should have been researching bitcoin/economics/markets. because i think when hardfacts was NOT researching economics/markets/ and basic trends, he was instead listening to "Yazz - the only way is up" and that song got stuck in his mind and influenced his buying decision at a higher price than this month.

maybe now is the point he does start researching economics.. or if he prefers listening to music videos.. try "Take That - patience"
6446  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: THIS CRASH IS DIFFERENT than previous crashes... The FEDERAL RESERVE is why.... on: June 30, 2022, 03:47:14 PM
VERY GOOD EXAMPLE  Grin

1.  Michael Saylor LIED about his Bitcoin gains multiple times on TV.  Michael Saylor Quoted his first major purchase price and called Bitcoin his best investment instead of admitting the investment was a 30 % LOSS, over 1 BILLOIN DOLLARS at the time.   Who needs to LIE to investors and the public to pump up his investment Huh  



first purchase price was at ~$11.65k each.. hmm. seems he is doing well from that first deal
6447  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is bitcoin really exist? on: June 30, 2022, 03:30:32 PM
no. ia  am asking what exist as bitcoin?? it isn't physical i know. if it is a code or script , are there 21 ml  scripts??

the actual code works like this.

the initial release of the genesis(first) block. has a value or reward of
binary: 100101010000001011111001000000000
which translates to 5,000,000,000 units (satoshi's) or for easy human GUI display converts to 50btc

the rules are that every 210,000 blocks that amount halves. its done by simply taking a binary bit off the end. and this is a hard rule all nodes follow to ensure all blocks comply to half the reward given per blocks every 210,000 period
binary: 100101010000001011111001000000000
which translates to 2,500,000,000 units (satoshi's) or for easy human GUI display converts to 25btc

as you can tell there were 33 binary bits. meaning 33 halvings until nothing is left. which doing the math totals as being
209,999,999,769,000 satoshis ever rewarded in total by blocks at the end. which converts to just shy of 21m btc
6448  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The unpredicted rise of BTC in 2022-2023 despite predicted bear market on: June 30, 2022, 03:06:27 PM
I am aware of the 4-cycle theory, but I think that due to the rise of metaverse, digital economy shall rise too (new economic tools designed specific for crypto-purposes, the in-stability on stock-markets due to different reasons: war, inflation, gas prices).

be aware of this
metaverse, is currently preferring NFT/tokens pegged to ethereum.. but ethereum is about to go through its own value crisis soon that will impact its underlying value and thus its speculative price above it. in a crash

changing from PoW (expensive to mine) to PoS(cheap to mine by atleast 2000x(their number of the 'energy reduction of 99.95%')) will cause alot of ethereum blockcreators to suddenly get cheap ether, because they are paying 2000x less electric.. whereby they will sell that ether cheaply and everyone will get in on it.
this can cause an oncoming storm for those that invested a good amount of fiat in ether to then buy the nft/tokens suddenly see their overall value decline.

what may transpire is then more wanting to have their altnets tagged/pegged/bridged/edged(choose your buzzword) to a better PoW chain.. aka bitcoin



rough lazy pen on paper math
current estimates of ether underlying value wil go from $xk, and down to..
404,952 validators(at time of posting) with a CPU power of 100w
5332 blocks a day
=~75 days for each validator to have approximately mined a block of 2 eth
=180kwh in 75 days for 2 eth. which on a bottomline electric cost bases of $0.04/kwh is about $7.20/2eth
or $3.60 per eth bottomline value cost so some lucky blockcreators
6449  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is bitcoin really exist? on: June 30, 2022, 01:56:43 PM
question first to get your mind prepared for the answer:
if you have $100 in your pocket. does it have to be categorically only in the format of a single $100 bank note. or can it be a measure of a allotment of smaller amounts?

if you had a tonne of gold does it have to be a single brick weighing a complete tonne. or a measure of smaller amounts like kg, ounces, grams that total a tonne?

answer:
in code/value in binary of actual data relayed/stored, whether its stored in the UTXO, mempool, blockchain databases or relayed.. wait for it..  there are no hard data "btc" it is all relayed and stored in units called sats..

it is the software GUI(display) code that then converts it to convenient formatted number for easy reading.

what tadamichi left out of the quoted code in his post. is the part where COIN is just an expression of hard data in blockchains, utxo's, mempools converting into COIN by doing a /100,000,000 of the hard data
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/src/consensus/amount.h#L14
Code:
/** The amount of satoshis in one BTC. */
static constexpr CAmount COIN = 100000000;

(i hope tadamichi sees my example of how i, someone that is in full adoption of bitcoin can atleast be open and honest about how bitcoin actually works without having to pander to uptopian stuff, and maybe he takes this as a lesson that trying to slide things under the rug can be misleading for his favoured network)


anyways
none of the unconfiirmed transactions relayed around or put into mempool databases.. nor the blockdata containing confirmed transactions nor the utxo data for easy indexing of the unspents remaining are in btc denominations.

but then again. do people care about a tonne of gold if its not in a format of actually being one single lump of hard gold or do they still call it a tonne of gold if they have 1000 bricks of 1kg of gold or 35274 ounces of gold

we are actually approaching an epoch(point in time) where people are not even able to afford to "buy a whole bitcoin" where people naturally are going to use different terms like sats(single units) and bits(100 units).
much like no one really cares about the "Tonne" when they are buying ounces of gold

btc is not and does not have to be a physical single lump. just like a gold "tonne" does not. its just a measure for easy conversation and display and easy accounting for human eyes and brains to understand using less long numbers.
..
now with that said..
blockchain, utxo, mempool databases and relay data streams all show actual units. (yes measured in sats) but they are actual units. that can be seen. and so if someone has grouped together an allotment of 100,000,000sats then they do indeed own a bitcoin

if you gather together 35274 ounces of gold, then you do indeed own a tonne of gold.

if you have in your left pocket 7 bank notes different denominations of 1x $20 and 6x $5. and in your right pocket you have 500 dimes in your right pocket.. you do indeed have $100 in your pants.... it does not have to be a single $100 bank note to be called $100 in your pocket
6450  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: THIS CRASH IS DIFFERENT than previous crashes... The FEDERAL RESERVE is why.... on: June 30, 2022, 12:54:34 PM
Bitcoin going down by such a large amount has ENDED the dream of a lot of serious institutional money investing into Bitcoin.  No large institution is going to invest real money into Bitcoin now that it has crashed by more than 66 % in less than a year.


what is forgotten here is that its not a "coming down" from a stable/supported higher number (AKA crash) its actually a correction and stabilisation from going up very high the previous year from an unexpected amount that was not backed up by any underlying support

try to remember that the $70k was not the "norm" it was not the stable number that should have remained
the $70k was the premium temporary event, it was not the expectation

the expectation in 2020 of what 2021+ would bring was the $20k(based on the events of 2017-18) the $70k in 2021 was the exception..
6451  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: According to Sam Bankman-Fried, some Bitcoin exchanges are insolvent on: June 30, 2022, 10:54:46 AM
Weird how he include Coinbase wouldn't insolvent while they're already lay off 18% of their workers and suffer $430 million losses, it's possible if Coinbase would bankrupt in the near future if Bitcoin price continue to drop and they don't have good management to take care or continue their business.

companies where the owner only runs one operation are most at risk.
 in examples like coinbase. they have multiple subsidiaries doing different things. so they have something to lean against

coinbase is owned by DCG which extends its arms into many many businesses and so if one is failing he can just shift things from others to back it up..

businesses with no sister companies have no back up to lean against

of course if the DGC is not diversified enough and put all its eggs in one basket. then they all get affected. which is the bad management aspect you speak of.

but that said the "third tier" exchanges, meaning the smaller businesses with no large corporate coverage of sister companies, would be first to go
6452  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: why can't bitcoin be based on something that has value? on: June 30, 2022, 09:48:50 AM
maybe bitcoin has a value but i wouldn't call it intrinsic. gold is a physical object. it has intrinsic value since it has practical uses in society. bitcoin is not a physical object. so it can't have any practical uses UNLESS and this is a big caveat you were able somehow to turn bitcoin into a physical object that people could use to barter with.

the physical ability to touch and feel it is called "tangible" dont confuse that with intrinsic

also if you think digital things have no practical use.. then i guess your in the 1800's wild west, where you have never seen or used a computer and see no benefit of computers..
... wait. your here on a forum communicating with people across the world due to digital code..
this forum is not physical. the [Post] button and the digital message sent over the internet that allows others to see your messages is not physical

but lets pretend you are stuck in the 1820's, because it seems your mindset is stuck in that era's narrow concept of value and money.
lets use an example, lets fast forward a bit to the 1840's.. i guess you think morse code is not physical. and has no practical use... well i guess telegrams in your updated time are something you would never use.

lets fast forward a bit. and evolve electronic messages and code.. welcome to the 1860's.. bank wire transfers.. . i guess they have no use in society..

lets fast forward a bit. and evolve electronic messages and code.. welcome to the 1930's encryption to secure these messages and secure the code around it.. hmm.. i guess they have no use in society. seems it was useful in WW2

.. i guess you might see where im going with this. or do you need me to take you through every step of evolution, or are you going to remain with 1820's mindset


just because a cryptocurrency has a finite/fixed supply that's not a necessary nor sufficient condition for being "valuable". all the things you mentioned I would say are features of bitcoin but not really anything more than features. something could have all of those same features and have very little "value".

i think maybe you are confusing price, value, values.
they are 3 separate concepts but they impact each other

values are the sentiment and usefulness of the features and benefits.
value is the economic base number no one wants to sell below
price is the more volatile/variable number above that than changes quicker based on sentiment values+value. where each person has their own number in mind for price

bitcoin has values(features and benefit(utility) and it has value. its intrinsic value is value within itself not something its backed by externally. bitcoin has that.
you wont find the value on a PRICE market. which is why i think you find it hard to realise it has value. but it does have an underlying value no one wants to sell below

ill give you a hint. PoS coin value is alot lower than PoW coin value
6453  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "I'll wait for the dip!" - The Crypto Noob Cycle on: June 30, 2022, 12:14:43 AM
Nobody can tell the bottom line of Crypto inThe market as it is  very volatile and  fluctuations not as clear as it used to be.

the price does fluctuate. but there are ways to find the current bottom of the value window that the price might go down to. (yes price bottom is different to the value bottom) (and yes the value window bottom also changes but not at the same volatility/rate as the price)

take PoS coins.
because they are CPU created blocks thus CPU rewarded coins. you can calculate the underlying cost.
(hint its alot lot less then PoW based coins)

you can work out how long it takes for each person to have signed a PoS block and how many times in that time they signed. and worked out the base cost of signing a block.. where its just math of time X kwh of a normal desktop pc

take the scenario of when ethereum 'detonate's to PoS from PoW
if you do the math you will see the bottom value window drop from a few $thousand.. to just a few $$.. so expect that ethereum to have a major correction/dip/crash when it changes to PoS when suddenly people staking can make blocks and get rewards very very cheaply and i mean very cheaply
6454  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Isn't Lightning Network bad for Bitcoin? on: June 29, 2022, 10:56:45 PM
there are many flaws in LN
first is people dont realise bitcoins never EVER leave the bitcoin network.

That's a feature, not a flaw.  By design.  As intended.  Which is why it's not an "altnet".  
so you admit that there are no bitcoin on LN.. ok one step forward.. or was that a foot trip forward,oops you slipped. but thanks for the admission you admit that bitcoins dont leave the bitcoin network.

LN is an altnet because its a different network. its own name indicates it.. hint: the N of LN
its an alternative.. it is not the bitcoin network.. it is not bitcoin!! it is a separate network

people call it (...) "the layer ontop".

It is a layer on top.  And not necessarily the only one.  I can't recall a time where you've never managed to convince a single person otherwise.  Consider finding some more convincing arguments rather than repeatedly trotting out the same tired old lines.  "Layer" is a perfectly justifiable description of LN.  

gotta laugh at this one: "ontop"

so LN is physical? like an object..?. like a slice of ham ontop a slice of bread.. can you see it in the real world.... nope. its all digital..

LN is actually a digital bridge between multiple blockchains. AKA between beside.

you want to define it as ontop. because thats the subliminal words of being top(best/above/better)

LN can function without bitcoin so it does not rely on bitcoin. people can still use their exact same software they have now, but with other altcoins.

its not a LAYER EG the skin of banana.. because LN is not a protective thing of bitcoin alone. if anything its a branch of a tree that links many fruits together. not the skin(layer)

its funny how they choose "ontop" and "layer" instead of the more widely accepted term "edge".. but yea, having an alternative network at the EDGE doesnt spark the same subliminal imagery as being "ontop"


as for your many posts in many topics pretending it is bitcoin.. well. standard logic, code and just knowing how LN works says the opposite

LN unit of measure when it makes invoices and payments is not even bitcoin unit measure. its msat. the payments are not bitcoin transaction formats but "sphinx onion packets" in a completely non-bitcoin format.

these msats dont even have any network security to ensure that 1000msat converts to 1sat when transitioning from the LN payment to a commitment.

when you make a 5 hop onion packet.. it might show
B gets 5005 C gets 5004 D gets 5003 E gets 5002 F gets 5001 G gets 5000

but there is no security to ensure that your payment which you peg at 5000msat=5sat ensures that CDEFG also converts their balance to be 5sats. they may end up having different commitments broadcast because their wallet has different pegs..
there is no network audit/consensus/ security that when A wants to send 5 sat to G but uses LN to do it. that the conversions are adhered to underneath the GUI by noob users that cant/dont review code of the wallet they were advertised.

be honest. every payment event. do you check the raw commitment and arrange the 'bucket'(LN word dont blame me) into a bitcoin transaction to then check that the numbers correlate.  
noobs dont. and im sure you dont regularly check incase an update or patch or trojan didnt edit the peg.

heres the last funny
(subtle hints that LN is bigger and better and ontop, above bitcoin) suggesting bitcoin is broke/not fit. dead

You keep claiming that other people are suggesting that, but I only ever see such comments from people who are misinformed about Bitcoin.
doomad. you literally were one of the people misinformed that called it ontop!!! you make it your mission to call out the flaws of bitcoin saying it cant scale and not fit for mainstream.. yes YOU. go read your post history(incase you have amnesia)
6455  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: THIS CRASH IS DIFFERENT than previous crashes... The FEDERAL RESERVE is why.... on: June 29, 2022, 10:37:11 PM
i know previous is trying to say he doesnt see fiat as being real money and hasnt been since de-pegging the gold standard.. but if enough people accept it as common then it becomes their money, even if its no longer scarce
Lmao the amount of bs this guy is trying to put into my mouth is insane, saying things i didnt even said.

i know exactly what you said.
but when you shake your head at the choice of fiat vs gold being money or not..  means that YOU think gold should have been  more common used as money...
Gold is way more valuable than fiat and yet we still ended up with fiat smh.

this moment here show your hidden emotion of wanting to think gold is/was in your mind more (ideal) money than fiat buy shaking your head to the reality that went against your secret opinion.

yes you then tried to explain off the shake your head to try to consolidate /change your mind of your secret opinion of why you shouldnt be shaking your head. by trying to understand why fiat is actually treated more like money then gold.
So i looked at the whys.

but yea its obvious you preferred if people treated gold more commonly. you just trying to justify to yourself the reason to change your mind.
however by you slipping in the "scarcity" criteria. shows your mind is still leaning back towards (bias in favour of) still wanting think gold is better (IDEAL) money in your mind

yes you mention it doesnt fit your criteria perfect and you call out the flaws of both. but you head shake and slips in of scarcity reveal your real secret preference

my goal was to see that your still bias in favour of a scarce money being ideal money. and give you a clearer idea of what others see as money.
scarcity is not part of money criteria. and common acceptance is the main one.

as for your definition of store of value.. . no you described the sentiment of values...
values(sentiment of feature) and value(economic amount) are different things. ones a feature, ones an economic amount.

store of value is an economic amount
6456  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MicroStrategy Acquires Additional 480 Bitcoins on: June 29, 2022, 10:17:38 PM
Personally I feel like there is an insider stuff to the reason this man keep stacking up bitcoin, there is something he's seeing that we all don't know,

its only 480, its small pocket change in the big scheme of his pockets. holding 130,000

.. as to insider/seeing what others dont see.

well. people do see. we see thousands of businesses in wait, waiting to start ETF businesses.
we see people adding more services and features.
we see that the dip will phase out and its in the cheap zone of this 2020-2022 era of the 4 year cycle
we see we are at the start. many businesses are lobbying regulators to get their act together to create frame work to operate in bitcoin.
people want to put their future retirement portfolio into bitcoin. this means they want to hoard long term for years/decades(waiting for regulatory frame work so they can have a legal vessel of etf to put their retirement contract/plans into)

its not the end of bitcoin, its still the beginning
6457  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: lost all btc on: June 29, 2022, 10:11:16 PM
there is no bitcoin transaction undo feature.
there is no central bank to refund/ chargeback the transaction.

if you dont know who stole it.. you cant chase them.

try to find out the cause.
was it a bad wallet from an unknown(not commonly used wallet)
did a friend or family install it or have access to it.

did you download any weird other programs that might have had a virus/trojan.
did you store the privatekey/wallet seed in a place someone else could get to

the only chance to get it back is to find the scammer that stole it.

so only option is find who done it and try and get it back by catching them

that may then involve police/court involvement.. or a hammer to their fingernail .. not advising. but its an option.

(its like someone pickpocketing your bank note wallet. the wallet does not have legs to run back to you. so you have to chase the pick-pocketer)
6458  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "I'll wait for the dip!" - The Crypto Noob Cycle on: June 29, 2022, 09:49:26 PM

no one can time it perfectly. no one is expected to..
the best people can do is find the window of value opportunity and gauge it as a cheap to premium. and just buy it while in the cheap zone

cheap                                           premium
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15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

That's a good advice actually. There's no doubt that Bitcoin will start rising at one point, and a new ATH will be reached, as it always happens. And since we can't know the BTC bottom for sure, starting buying when it's below $20k is a good idea. Not with all your money allocated for the investment, but maybe with 5% of it at a time. Wait a week, do it again. I'd say, you are very lucky if you manage to invest half of the allocated money at Bitcoin price below $30k.

Concidering that the price was at ATH last fall, which was near 70k, and also it has been between 45-60 for a long time last year and the beggining of this year, I believe that 20000 is a relly good chance to enter the market. Bitcoin shows growth in the long term perspective, this is undoubtable, that is why all the pessimistic scenarios about the crash to 0 look rediculous to me. I am sure BTC will be 100000 in the next 1.5 -2 years. That is why bying even at 30000 is a great opportunity, which far-sighted people won`t lose.

the way i view it.. if you can calculate the value window.. you can find the safe zone.

there is actual reason the price topped out at $70k and not $100k
everyone on the planet last year could mine bitcoin for under $70k and so no one would buy bitcoin if they can acquire/mine it cheaper elsewhere.
so the buys dry up.
same at the other end if no one can mine for less. anywhere on the planet. then no one is going to sell for less.
this window is then where the price fits it.
if no one is selling for les and cant mine for less. the will buy it for more

yes the window can change if the mining costs change so keep an eye on the changes. but the price sits inside the window. this means the window can grow up and increase giving more chance of reaching $100k if the window is at or above $100k. and it means if new asics come out that are more efficient or that the higher cost miners drop out giving more coin share per block to the remaining miners it can make mining cheaper which then allows the price to come down. because they are more able to sell.

now imagine you have $XX k to invest .. and you found the window is $15k-$70k
decide to split up the window..
(in this scenario you have yet to see the market price. you only know the window)

your willing to risk 1% at the top and more % at the bottom
EG
35% 25% 15% 10% 8% 4% 2% 1%
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where by you are not throwing it all in. but instead taking opportunity based on risk. where by you always have spare funds left. to take more opportunity.

(in this scenario you NOW look at the price to see where it fits in the window)

we are in the green area right now. so for now dont measure out 1% to leave for the top end. you might aswell re-evaluate and change the % at the bottom end to take the opportunity.
for instance. put that 15% 10% 8% 4% 2% 1% above the current price. into numbers between the bottom of the current window upto  where you might say your willing to still buy at EG all of the green and some orange if the price goes up. and re-jig the % accordingly

but if the price was in the red zone when you first look at market prices(imagine scenario you entered last year). then you would only risk the small percentages and leave the large percentages at the bottom for when the correction occurs so that you can take those opportunities.

..
what you dont want to do is say only invest 5% at $21k because you think/hope that it will drop to then put 95% in.. can leave you in regret if the price rises and you only invested 5%.. however investing 95% at say $30k but then it went down to $21k then to $17k then to $21 again. means you regret the 95% you already spent and only have 5% left.
so spread the percentage to fit the opportunity and risk where you are probably happier to have invested 25% at $21k.. more so then investing just 5% and hoping it drops one more time
6459  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Are we gradually approaching towards the end of Bitcoin? on: June 29, 2022, 09:30:21 PM
there are thousands/millions of businesses .. hundreds of countries. involved.

there are even today sooo many companies trying to lobby (old slow backward)governments for some regulatory policy to get the legalised ability to run a bitcoin business..

businesses are waiting to start accepting bitcoin.
ETF's want to start. merchants want to start. the list goes on

people are waiting to be able to put their retirement portfolios into investing in bitcoin

. so its not over.. its just begun
6460  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: THIS CRASH IS DIFFERENT than previous crashes... The FEDERAL RESERVE is why.... on: June 29, 2022, 09:10:50 PM
this is where people need to separate PRICE, VALUE, VALUES
to understand how each impacts each other

golds values(features and benefits give it desire/demand)
gold value(underlying all this, is the underlying basic cost of acquiring it no one wants to sell below)
gold price is the value+values(underlying cost plus speculative variable of the desire/demand)

golds price is not its store of value. golds store of value is less then the gold price
golds store of value is about $900 right now whilst golds price is about double that.
the double(premium) of the price is a variable caused by the speculative whimsy of sentiment about the desire and demand based on what peoples values(sentiment of features/benefits) are.

..
now whats creates the value(underlying cost).
if no one wants it... miners wont bother mining it. meaning that they dont put much money into it.  

when something has a low store of value but a high speculative price.. that is a BUBBLE
when the price is low but the value is high. that is CHEAP/DISCOUNT/great price:value..

the value(economic amount) is not the same as the value(features,benefits utility)
what makes something a good currency. is its utility/values(features/benefits). the more features it offers the more benefits it offers. the more used it will become and more desired.. which then impacts the value and price

money(sub category of currency) has specific values it has to achieve

as for the criteria used by previous poster.. id tweak that abit to:

common - (accessible and acceptable by broad community)
Store of Value - (underlying cost no one sells below)
Medium of exchange - (commonly agreed to a price (variable/separate to value) for other goods/services/labour/assets)
Unit of Account - (Divisibility, Fungibility, easily transferable)

'scarcity' is not a feature of "money" because the most common money is fiat.. and thats not scarce.

i know previous is trying to say he doesnt see fiat as being real money and hasnt been since de-pegging the gold standard.. but if enough people accept it as common then it becomes their money, even if its no longer scarce
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